Doubling of coastal erosion under rising sea level by mid-century in Hawaii

Natural Hazards

Volumn 78, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 75-103

  Anderson, Tiffany R ^a   Fletcher, Charles H ^a   Barbee, Matthew M ^a   Frazer, L Neil ^a   Romine, Bradley M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

Author keywords

Erosion; Hawaii; Reef; Sea level rise; Shoreline

Indexed keywords

ACCRETION; COASTAL EROSION; FORECASTING METHOD; REEF; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SHORELINE CHANGE;

HAWAII [(ISL) HAWAIIAN ISLANDS]; HAWAII [UNITED STATES]; HAWAIIAN ISLANDS;

EID: 85027919055     PISSN: 0921030X     EISSN: 15730840     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1698-6     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. Anderson TR, Frazer LN (2014) Toward parsimony in shoreline change prediction (III): B-splines and noise handling. J Coast Res 30(4):729–742
2. Anderson TR, Frazer LN, Fletcher CH (2014) Long-term shoreline change at Kailua, Hawaii using regularized single transect. J Coast Res. doi:10.2112/jcoastres-d-13-00202.1
3. Aucan JP (2006) Directional wave climatology for the Hawaiian Islands from buoy data and the influence ofENSO on extreme wave events from wave model hindcast. In: Proceedings of the 9th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting (Victoria, British Columbia), JCOMM Technical Report 34/WMO-TD, 1368
4. Aucan JP, Hoeke R, Merrifield M (2012) Wave-driven sea level anomalies at the Midway tide gauge as an index of North Pacific storminess over the past 60 years. Geophys Res Lett 39(17):L17603. doi:10.1029/2012GL052993
5. Bauer BO, Allen JR (1995) Beach steps: an evolutionary prospective. Mar Geol 123(3–4):143–166
6. Bayley GV, Hammersley JM (1946) The ‘‘effective’’ number of independent observations in an autocorrelated time series. Suppl J R Stat Soc 8(2):184–197
7. Bochicchio C, Fletcher CH, Dyer M, Smith T (2009) Reef-top sediment bodies: Windward Oahu, Hawaii. Pac Sci 63(1):61–82
8. Bodge KR, Sullivan S (1999) Hawaii pilot beach restoration project: coastal engineering investigation. State of Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources, Honolulu, pp 38–40
9. Bruun P (1962) Sea-level rise as a cause of shoreline erosion. J Waterw Harb Div Am Soc Civ Eng 88:117–130
10. Bruun P (1988) The Bruun Rule of erosion by sea level rise: a discussion on large-scale and two- and threedimensional usages. J Coast Res 4(4):627–648
11. Caccamise DJ, Merrifield MA, Bevis M, Foster J, Firing Y, Schenewerk M, Taylor F, Thomas D (2005) Sea level rise at Honolulu and Hilo, Hawaii: GPS estimates of differential land motion. Geophys Res Lett 32:L03607. doi:10.1029/2004GL021380
12. Calhoun RS, Fletcher CH (1996) Late Holocene coastal plain stratigraphy and sea level history at Hanalei, Kauai, Hawaii Islands. Quat Res 45(1):47–58
13. Cazenave A, Le Cozannet G (2013) Sea level rise and its coastal impacts. Earth Future 2(2):15–34. doi:10.1002/2013EF000188
14. Church JA, White NJ (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32(4–5):585–602
15. Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York
16. Conger C (2005) Identification and characterization of sand deposit distribution on the fringing reefs of Oahu, Hawaii. Thesis, University of Hawaii at Manoa Cooper JAG
17. Pilkey OH (2004) Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Bruun Rule. Glob Planet Change 43:157–171
18. Cowell PJ, Kench PS (2000) The morphological response of atoll islands to sea-level rise. Part 1: Modifications to the shoreface translation model. J Coast Res Special Issue 34, pp 633–644
19. Cowell PJ, Roy PS, Jones RA (1995) Simulation of large-scale coastal change using a morphological behaviour model. Mar Geol 126(1–4):45–61
20. Curtiss JH (1941) On the distribution of the quotient of two change variables. Ann Math Stat 12(4):409–421
21. Dail HJ, Merrifield MA, Bevis M (2000) Steep beach morphology changes due to energetic wave forcing. Mar Geol 162(2–4):443–458
22. Davidson-Arnott R (2005) Conceptual model of the effects of sea level rise on sandy coasts. J Coast Res 21(6):1166–1172
23. Davison AC (2003) Statistical models. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 726
24. Dean RG (1991) Equilibrium beach profiles: characteristics and applications. J Coast Res 7(1):53–84
25. Dean RG, Maurmeyer EM (1983) Models for beach profile response. In: Komar PD (ed) CRC handbook of coastal processes and erosion. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp 151–165
26. Douglas BC, Crowell M (2000) Long-term shoreline position prediction and error propagation. J Coast Res 16(1):145–152
27. EUROSION (2004) Living with coastal erosion in Europe: sediment and space for sustainability. Part III— Methodology for assessing regional indicators Everts CH (1985) Sea level rise effects. J Waterw Port Coast Ocean Eng 111(6):985–999
28. Fenneman MM (1902) Development of the profile of equilibrium of the subaqueous shore terrace. J Geol 10(1):1–32
29. Fitzgerald DM, Fenster MS, Argow BA, Buynevich IV (2008) Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 36:601–647
30. Fletcher CH, Jones AT (1996) Sea-level highstand recorded in Holocene shoreline deposits on Oahu, Hawaii. J Sediment Res 66(3):632–641
31. Fletcher CH, Rooney J, Barbee M, Lim S-C, Richmond B (2003) Mapping shoreline change using digital orthophotogrammetry on Maui, Hawaii. J Coast Res SI(38):106–124
32. Fletcher CH, Murray-Wallace CV, Glenn CR, Sherman CE, Popp B, Hessler A (2005) Age and origin of late Quaternary eolianite, Kaiehu Point (Moomomi), Molokai, Hawaii. J Coast Res SI(42):97–112
33. Fletcher CH, Bochicchio C, Conger CL, Engels MS, Feirstein EJ, Grossman EE, Grigg R, Harney JN, Rooney JJB, Sherman CE, Vitousek S, Rubin K, Murray-Wallace CV (2008) Geology of Hawaii reefs. In: Riegl BM, Dodge RE (eds) Coral reefs of the USA. Springer, New York, pp 435–488
34. Fletcher CH, Romine BM, Genz AS, Barbee MM, Dyer M, Anderson TR, Lim SC, Vitousek S, Bochicchio C, Richmond BM (2013) National assessment of shoreline change: historical shoreline change in the Hawaiian Islands. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1051
35. Frazer LN, Genz AS, Fletcher CH (2009) Toward parsimony in shoreline change prediction (I): methods. J Coast Res 25(2):366–379
36. Gibb JG (1995) Assessment of Coastal Hazard Zones for Northern Poverty Bay and Wainui Beach, Gisborne District. Report for the Gisborne District Council
37. Gibbs AE, Richmond BM, Fletcher CH, Hillman KP (2001) Hawaii Beach Monitoring Program: Beach profile data. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 01-308
38. Grady AE, Moore LJ, Storlazzi CD, Elias E, Reidenbach MA (2013) The influence of sea level rise and changes in fringing reef morphology on gradients in alongshore sediment transport. Geophys Res Lett 40(12):3096–3101
39. Grossman EE, Fletcher CH (1998) Sea level higher than present 3500 years ago on the northern main Hawaiian Islands. Geology 26(4):363–366
40. Grossman EE, Fletcher CH (2004) Holocene reef development where wave energy reduces accommodation space, Kailua, Bay, windward Oahu, Hawaii, USA. J Sediment Res 74(1):49–63
41. Gutierrez BT, Plant NG, Thieler ER (2011) A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise. J Geophys Res 116(F2):F02009. doi:10.1029/2010JF001891
42. Hallermeier RJ (1981) A profile zonation for seasonal sand beaches from wave climate. Coast Eng 4:253–277
43. Hands EG (1979) Changes in rates of shore retreat, Lake Michigan, 1967–1976. Coastal Engineering Research Center Technical Memorandum No. 79-4
44. Hands EB (1980) Prediction of shore retreat and nearshore profile adjustments to rising water levels on the Great Lakes. Coastal Engineering Research Center Technical Memorandum No. 80-7
45. Hands EB (1983) The Great Lakes as a test model for profile response to sea level changes. In: Komar PD (ed) Handbook of coastal processes and erosion. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp 167–189
46. Hanson H, Aarninkhof S, Capobianco M, Jimenez JA, Larson M, Nicholls RJ, Plant NG, Southgate HN, Steetzel HJ, Stive MJF, de Vriend HJ (2003) Modelling of coastal evolution on yearly to decadal time scales. J Coast Res 19(4):790–811
47. Hapke CJ, Himmelstoss EA, Kratzman MG, List JH, Thieler ER (2010) National assessment of shoreline change: Historical shoreline changes along the New England and Mid-Atlantic coasts. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1118
48. Harney JN, Grossman EE, Richmond BM, Fletcher CH (2000) Age and composition of carbonate shoreface sediments, Kailua Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Coral Reefs 19(2):141–154
49. Helm V, Humbert A, Miller H (2014) Elevation and elevation change of Greenland and Antarctica derived from CryoSat-2. Cryosphere Discuss 8(2):1673–1721. doi:10.5194/tcd-8-1673-2014
50. Hemer MA, Fan Y, Mori N, Semedo A, Wang XL (2013) Projected changes in wave climate from a multimodel ensemble. Nat Clim Change 3:471–476. doi:10.1038/nclimate1791
51. Houston JR, Dean RG (2014) Shoreline change on the East Coast of Florida. J Coast Res 30(4):647–660
52. Hwang DJ (1981) Beach changes on Oahu as revealed by aerial photographs, Honolulu, Hawaii: University of Hawaii, Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, Technical Report HIG-81-3, pp 66–75
53. Hwang DJ (2005) Hawaii Coastal Hazard Mitigation Guidebook, Honolulu, Hawaii: University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program, Report UNIHI-SEAGRANT-BA-03-01
54. Joughin I, Smith BE, Medley B (2014) Marine ice sheet collapse potentially underway for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science 344(6185):735–738
55. Katsman CA, Sterl A, Beersma JJ, van den Brink HW, Church JA, Hazeleger W, Kopp RE, Kroon D, Kwadijk J, Lammersen R, Lowe J, Oppenheimer M, Plag H-P, Ridley J, von Storch H, Vaughan DG, Vellinga P, Vermeersen LLA, van de Wal RSW, Weisse R (2011) Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example. Clim Change 109(3–4):617–645
56. Komar PD (1998) Beach processes and sedimentation, 2nd edn. Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River Komar PD, McDougal WG, Marra JJ, Ruggiero P (1999) The rational analysis of setback distances: applications to the Oregon Coast. Shore and Beach 76(1):41–49
57. Kopp RE, Horton RM, Little CM, Mitrovica JX, Oppenheimer M, Rasmussen DJ, Strauss BH, Tebaldi C (2014) Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth’s Future 2(8):383–406. doi:10.1002/2014EF000239
58. List JH, Sallenger AH Jr, Hansen ME, Jaffe BE (1997) Accelerated relative sea-level rise and rapid coastal erosion: testing a causal relationship for the Louisiana barrier islands. Mar Geol 140(3–4):347–365
59. Merrifield MA, Maltrud ME (2011) Regional sea level trends due to a Pacific trade wind intensification. Geophys Res Lett 38(21):L21605
60. Mimura N, Nobuoka H (1995) Verification of the Bruun Rule for the estimate of shoreline retreat caused by sea-level rise. In: Dally ER, Zeidler RB (eds) Coastal dynamics 95. American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, pp 607–616
61. Moberly RM, Chamberlain T (1964) Hawaiian beach systems. Honolulu, Hawaii: University of Hawaii, Institute of Geophysics, Final Report HIG-64-2
62. Moore JG (1970) Relationship between subsidence and volcanic load, Hawaii. Bull Volcanol 34(2):562–576
63. Muñòz-Pèrez JJ, Tejedor L, Medina R (1999) Equilibrium beach profile model for reef-protected beaches. J Coast Res 15(4):950–957
64. Norcross ZM, Fletcher CH, Merrifield M (2003a) Annual and interannual changes on a reef-fringed pocket beach: Kailua Bay, Hawaii. Mar Geol 190(3–4):553–580
65. Norcross Z, Fletcher CH, Rooney JJR, Eversole D, Miller TL (2003b) Hawaiian beaches dominated by longshore transport. In: Davis RA, Howd P, Sallenger A (eds) Proceedings of the international conference on coastal sediments 2003, Clearwater, Florida, 18–23 May 2003
66. Pe´quignet A-CN, Becker J, Merrifield MA (2014) Energy transfer between wind waves and low-frequency oscillations on a fringing reef, Ipan, Guam. J Geophys Res Oceans 119(10):6709–6724
67. Perry CT, Kench PS, Smithers SG, Riegl B, Yamano H, O’Leary MJ (2011) Implications of reef ecosystem change for the stability and maintenance of coral reef islands. Glob Change Biol 17(12):3679–3696
68. Pilkey OH, Cooper JAG (2004) Society and sea level rise. Science 303(5665):1781–1782
69. Pilkey OH, Young RS, Riggs SR, Sam Smith AW, Wu H, Pilkey W (1993) The concept of shoreface profile of equilibrium: a critical review. J Coast Res 9(1):255–278
70. Purdy E (1974) Karst-determined facies patterns in British Honduras: Holocene carbonate sedimentation model. Am As Pet Geol Bull 58(5):825–855
71. Ranasinghe R, Stive MJF (2009) Rising seas and retreating coastlines. Clim Change 97:465–468. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9593-3
72. Ranasinghe R, Callaghan D, Stive MJF (2011) Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule. Clim Change 110(3–4):561–574
73. Rignot E, Mouginot J, Morlighem M, Seroussi H, Scheuchi B (2014) Widespread rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys Res Lett 41(10):3502–3509
74. Romine BM, Fletcher CH (2013) A summary of historical shoreline changes on beaches of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui: Hawaii. J Coast Res 29(3):605–614
75. Romine BM, Fletcher CH, Barbee MM, Anderson TR, Frazer LN (2013) Are beach erosion rates and sea level rise related in Hawaii? Glob Planet Change 108:149–157. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.009
76. Romine, BM, Fletcher CH, Frazer LN, Anderson TR. Antecedent geomorphology and shoreline change, northeast Oahu, Hawaii. J Geophys Res Earth Surf (in review) Rooney JJB, Fletcher CH (2005) Shoreline change and pacific climatic oscillations in Kihei, Maui, Hawaii. J Coast Res 21(3):535–547
77. Rosati JD, Dean RG, Walton TL (2013) The modified Bruun Rule extended for landward transport. Mar Geol 340:71–78
78. Schwartz ML (1967) The Bruun theory of sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. J Geol 75(1):76–92
79. SCOR Working Group 89 (1991) The response of beaches to sea-level changes: a review of predictive models. J Coast Res 7(3):895–921
80. Sea Engineering (1988) Oahu Shoreline Study, Part 1, Data on Beach Changes. Honolulu, Hawaii. Report for the City and County of Honolulu Department of Land Utilization
81. Shand T, Shand R, Reinen-Hamill R, Carley J, Cox R (2013) A review of shoreline response models to changes in sea level. In: Coasts and Ports 2013: 21st Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering conference and the 14th Australasian Port and Harbour conference (Sydney, Australia), pp 676–684
82. Sheppard C, Dixon D, Gourlay M, Sheppard A, Payet R (2005) Coral mortality increases wave energy reaching shores protected by reef flats: examples from the Seychelles. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 64(2–3):223–234
83. Stive MJF (2004) How important is global warming for coastal erosion? An editorial comment. Clim Change 64(1–2):27–39
84. Stive MJF, Aarninkhof SGJ, Hamm L, Hanson H, Larson M, Wijnberg KM, Nicholls RJ, Capobianco M (2002) Variability of shore and shoreline evolution. Coast Eng 47(2):211–235
85. Storlazzi CD, Elias E, Field ME, Presto MK (2011) Numerical modeling of the impact of sea-level rise on fringing coral reef hydrodynamics and sediment transport. Coral Reefs 30(1):83–96
86. Thieler ER, Pilkey OH Jr, Young RS, Bush DM, Chai F (2000) The use of mathematical models to predict beach behavior for US coastal engineering: a critical review. J Coast Res 16(1):48–70
87. Vitousek S, Fletcher CH (2008) Maximum annually recurring wave heights in Hawaii. Pac Sci 62(4):541–553
88. Wang XL, Feng Y, Swail VR (2014) Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 41:1026–1034. doi:10.1002/2013GL058650
89. Yates ML, Le Cozannet G (2012) Brief communication ‘‘Evaluating European coastal evolution using Bayesian networks’’. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12(4):1173–1177
90. Yates ML, Le Cozannet G, Lenotre N (2011) Quantifying errors in long-term coastal erosion and inundation hazard assessments. In: Proceedings of the 11th international coastal symposium (Szczecin, Poland), pp 260–264
91. Zhang K, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP (2004) Global warming and coastal erosion. Clim Change 64(1–2):41–58