Incorporating temporal correlation into a multivariate random parameters Tobit model for modeling crash rate by injury severity

Transportmetrica A: Transport Science

Volumn 14, Issue 3, 2018, Pages 177-191

  Zeng, Qiang ^a   Wen, Huiying ^a   Huang, Helai ^b   Pei, Xin ^c   Wong, S C ^d  

^a SOUTH CHINA UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^b CENTRAL SOUTH UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY   (China)

^d UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Crash rate by severity; multivariate Tobit model; random parameters; temporal correlation

Indexed keywords

ROADS AND STREETS;

CRASH RATE; DEVIANCE INFORMATION CRITERION; ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION; MULTIVARIATE TOBIT; RANDOM PARAMETERS; TEMPORAL CORRELATIONS; TRAFFIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY;

TRAFFIC CONTROL;

EID: 85026241963     PISSN: 23249935     EISSN: 23249943     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/23249935.2017.1353556     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Aguero-Valverde, J., and P., Jovanis. 2008. “Analysis of Road Crash Frequency with Spatial Models.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2061: 55–63. doi: 10.3141/2061-07
2. Anastasopoulos, P. C., 2016. “Random Parameters Multivariate Tobit and Zero-Inflated Count Data Models: Addressing Unobserved and Zero-State Heterogeneity in Accident Injury-Severity Rate and Frequency Analysis.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 11: 17–32. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2016.06.001
3. Anastasopoulos, P. C., F. L., Mannering, V. N., Shankar, and J. E., Haddock. 2012. “A Study of Factors Affecting Highway Accident Rates Using the Random-Parameters Tobit Model.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 45: 628–633. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.09.015
4. Anastasopoulos, P. C., V. N., Shankar, J. E., Haddock, and F. L., Mannering. 2012. “A Multivariate Tobit Analysis of Highway Accident-Injury-Severity Rates.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 45: 110–119. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.11.006
5. Anastasopoulos, P. C., A. P., Tarko, and F. L., Mannering. 2008. “Tobit Analysis of Vehicle Accident Rates on Interstate Highways.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 (2): 768–775. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.09.006
6. Barua, S., K., El-Basyouny, and M. T., Islam. 2014. “A Full Bayesian Multivariate Count Data Model of Collision Severity with Spatial Correlation.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 3–4: 28–43. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2014.09.001
7. Barua, S., K., El-Basyouny, and M. T., Islam. 2016. “Multivariate Random Parameters Collision Count Data Models with Spatial Heterogeneity.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 9: 1–15. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2015.11.002
8. Caliendo, C., M. L., De Gugliemo, and M., Guida. 2016. “Comparison and Analysis of Road Tunnel Traffic Accident Frequencies and Rates Using Random-Parameter Models.” Journal of Transportation Safety and Security 8 (2): 177–195. doi: 10.1080/19439962.2015.1013167
9. Castro, M., R., Paleti, and C. R., Bhat. 2012. “A Latent variable Representation of Count Data Models to Accommodate Spatial and Temporal Dependence: Application to Predicting Crash Frequency at Intersections.” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 46: 253–272. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.09.007
10. Chiou, Y. C., and C., Fu. 2013. “Modeling Crash Frequency and Severity Using Multinomial-Generalized Poisson Model with Error Components.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 50: 73–82. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.030
11. Chiou, Y. C., and C., Fu. 2015. “Modeling Crash Frequency and Severity with Spatiotemporal Dependence.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 5–6: 43–58. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2015.03.002
12. Chiou, Y. C., C., Fu, and H., Chih-Wei. 2014. “Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Simultaneously Modeling Crash Frequency and Severity.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 2: 1–11. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2013.12.001
13. Dong, C., D. B., Clarke, S. S., Nambisan, and B., Huang. 2016. “Analyzing Injury Crashes Using Random-Parameter Bivariate Regression Models.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 12 (9): 794–810. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2016.1177134
14. Dong, N., H., Huang, J., Lee, M., Gao, and M., Abdel-Aty. 2016. “Macroscopic Hotspots Identification: a Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Interaction Approach.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 92: 256–264. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.001
15. Dong, C., S. S., Nambisan, K., Xie, D. B., Clarke, and X., Yan. 2017. “Analyzing the Effectiveness of Implemented Highway Safety Laws for Traffic Safety Across US States.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 13 (2): 91–107. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2016.1212290
16. El-Basyouny, K., and T., Sayed. 2009. “Collision Prediction Models Using Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal Regression.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 41 (4): 820–828. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.04.005
17. Gross, F., and P. P., Jovanis. 2007. “Estimation of the Safety Effectiveness of Lane and Shoulder Width: Case-Control Approach.” Journal of Transportation Engineering 133 (6): 362–369. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2007)133:6(362)
18. Hauer, E., B. K., Allery, J., Kononov, and M. S., Griffith. 2004. “How Best to Rank Sites with Promise.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1897: 48–54. doi: 10.3141/1897-07
19. Huang, H., H., Chin, and M., Haque. 2009. “Empirical Evaluation of Alternative Approaches in Identifying Crash hot Spots: Naive Ranking, Empirical Bayes, and Full Bayes Methods.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2103: 32–41. doi: 10.3141/2103-05
20. Huang, H., B., Song, P., Xu, Q., Zeng, J., Lee, and M., Abdel-Aty. 2016. “Macro and Micro Models for Zonal Crash Prediction with Application in hot Zones Identification.” Journal of Transport Geography 54: 248–256. doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2016.06.012
21. Huang, H., Q., Zeng, X., Pei, S. C., Wong, and P., Xu. 2016. “Predicting Crash Frequency Using an Optimised Radial Basis Function Neural Network Model.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 12 (4): 330–345. doi: 10.1080/23249935.2015.1136008
22. Jovanis, P. P., and H. L., Chang. 1986. “Modeling the Relationship of Accidents to Miles Traveled.” Transportation Research Record 1068: 42–51.
23. Lord, D., and F., Mannering. 2010. “The Statistical Analysis of Crash-Frequency Data: A Review and Assessment of Methodological Alternatives.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 44 (5): 291–305.
24. Lord, D., and B., Persaud. 2000. “Accident Prediction Models with and Without Trend: Application of the Generalized Estimating Equations Procedure.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1717: 102–108. doi: 10.3141/1717-13
25. Ma, X., F., Chen, and S., Chen. 2015. “Modeling Crash Rates for a Mountainous Highway by Using Refined-Scale Panel Data.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2515: 10–16. doi: 10.3141/2515-02
26. Ma, J., and K. M., Kockelman. 2006. “Bayesian Multivariate Poisson Regression for Models of Injury Count, by Severity.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1950: 24–34. doi: 10.3141/1950-04
27. Ma, J., K. M., Kockelman, and P., Damien. 2008. “A Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal Regression Model for Prediction of Crash Counts by Severity, Using Bayesian Methods.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 (3): 964–975. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.11.002
28. Ma, L., X., Yan, and J., Weng. 2015. “Modeling Traffic Crash Rates of Road Segments Through a Lognormal Hurdle Framework with Flexible Scale Parameter.” Journal of Advanced Transportation 49 (8): 928–940. doi: 10.1002/atr.1322
29. Mannering, F. L., and C. R., Bhat. 2014. “Analytic Methods in Accident Research: Methodological Frontier and Future Directions.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 1: 1–22. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2013.09.001
30. Milton, J., and F., Mannering. 1998. “The Relationship among Highway Geometrics, Traffic-Related Elements and Motor-Vehicle Accident Frequencies.” Transportation 25 (4): 395–413. doi: 10.1023/A:1005095725001
31. NHTSA. 2012. 2010 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview.
32. Noland, R. B., M. A., Quddus, and W. Y., Ochieng. 2008. “The Effect of the London Congestion Charge on Road Casualties: An Intervention Analysis.” Transportation 35: 73–91. doi: 10.1007/s11116-007-9133-9
33. Park, E. S., and D., Lord. 2007. “Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal Models for Jointly Modeling Crash Frequency by Severity.” Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2019: 1–6. doi: 10.3141/2019-01
34. Pei, X., S. C., Wong, and N. N., Sze. 2012. “The Roles of Exposure and Speed in Road Safety Analysis.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 48: 464–471. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.005
35. Quddus, M. A., 2008. “Time Series Count Data Models: an Empirical Application to Traffic Accidents.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 40 (5): 1732–1741. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.06.011
36. Song, J. J., M., Ghosh, S., Miaou, and B., Mallick. 2006. “Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Models for Roadway Traffic Crash Mapping.” Journal of Multivariate Analysis 97: 246–273. doi: 10.1016/j.jmva.2005.03.007
37. Spiegelhalter, D., A., Thomas, N., Best, and D., Lunn. 2005. WinBUGS User Manual. Cambridge, UK: MRC Biostatistics Unit.
38. Wang, X., and M., Abdel-Aty. 2006. “Temporal and Spatial Analyses of Rear-end Crashes at Signalized Intersections.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 38 (6): 1137–1150. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.04.022
39. Wang, J., H., Huang, and Q., Zeng. 2017. “The Effect of Zonal Factors in Estimating Crash Risks by Transportation Modes: Motor Vehicle, Bicycle and Pedestrian.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 98: 223–231. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.10.018
40. Washington, S. P., M. G., Karlaftis, and F. L., Mannering. 2011. Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis. 2nd ed. New York: CRC Press.
41. Wu, C. Y., and B. P., Loo. 2017. “Changes in Novice Motorcyclist Safety in Hong Kong After the Probationary Driving License Scheme.” Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 13 (5): 1–14.
42. Xu, X., S. C., Wong, and K., Choi. 2014. “A two-Stage Bivariate Logistic-Tobit Model for the Safety Analysis of Signalized Intersections.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 3–4: 1–10. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2014.08.001
43. Ye, X., R. M., Pendyala, S. P., Washington, K., Konduri, and J., Oh. 2009. “A Simultaneous Equations Model of Crash Frequency by Collision Type for Rural Intersections.” Safety Science 47 (3): 443–452. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.06.007
44. Yu, R., Y., Xiong, and M., Abdel-Aty. 2015. “A Correlated Random Parameter Approach to Investigate the Effects of Weather Conditions on Crash Risk for a Mountainous Freeway.” Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 50: 68–77. doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2014.09.016
45. Zeng, Q., and H., Huang. 2014. “Bayesian Spatial Joint Modeling of Traffic Crashes on an Urban Road Network.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 67: 105–112. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.02.018
46. Zeng, Q., H., Huang, X., Pei, and S. C., Wong. 2016. “Modeling Nonlinear Relationship Between Crash Frequency by Severity and Contributing Factors by Neural Networks.” Analytic Methods in Accident Research 10: 12–25. doi: 10.1016/j.amar.2016.03.002
47. Zeng, Q., H., Huang, X., Pei, S. C., Wong, and M., Gao. 2016. “Rule Extraction From an Optimized Neural Network for Traffic Crash Frequency Modeling.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 97: 87–95. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.08.017
48. Zeng, Q., H., Wen, H., Huang, and M., Abdel-Aty. 2017. “A Bayesian Spatial Random Parameters Tobit Model for Analyzing Crash Rates on Roadway Segments.” Accident Analysis & Prevention 100: 37–43. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.12.023
49. Zeng, Q., H., Wen, H., Huang, X., Pei, and S. C., Wong. 2017. “A Multivariate Random-Parameters Tobit Model for Analyzing Highway Crash Rates by Injury Severity.” Accident Analysis and Prevention 99: 184–191. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.11.018