The difference in foresight using the scanning method between experts and non-experts

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 119, Issue , 2017, Pages 18-26

  Honda, Hidehito ^a   Washida, Yuichi ^b   Sudo, Akihito ^c   Wajima, Yuichiro ^a   Awata, Keigo ^d   Ueda, Kazuhiro ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^b HITOTSUBASHI UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^c INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE   (Japan)

^d Research and Consulting Division   (Japan)

Author keywords

Creativity; Difference between experts and non experts; Divergent thinking; Foresight; Scanning method

Indexed keywords

INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

CREATIVITY; DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EXPERTS AND NON-EXPERTS; DIVERGENT THINKINGS; FORESIGHT; SCANNING METHODS;

SCANNING;

ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY; FUTURE PROSPECT; SOCIAL CHANGE;

EID: 85019707599     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.03.005     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Aguilar, F.J., Scanning the Business Environment. 1967, Macmillan.
2. Amabile, T.M., Effects of external evaluation on artistic creativity. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 37 (1979), 221–233, 10.1037/0022-3514.37.2.221.
3. Amabile, T.M., Barsade, S.G., Mueller, J.S., Staw, B.M., Affect and creativity at work. Adm. Sci. Q. 50 (2005), 367–403, 10.2189/asqu.2005.50.3.367.
4. Ansoff, H.I., Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. Calif. Manag. Rev. 18 (1975), 21–33.
5. Brown, V., Tumeo, M., Larey, T.S., Paulus, P.B., Modeling cognitive interactions during group brainstorming. Small Group Res. 29 (1998), 495–526, 10.1177/1046496498294005.
6. Fahey, L., King, W.R., Environmental scanning for corporate planning. Bus. Horiz. 20 (1977), 61–71, 10.1016/0007-6813(77)90010-6.
7. Förster, J., Friedman, R.S., Liberman, N., Temporal construal effects on abstract and concrete thinking: consequences for insight and creative cognition. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 87 (2004), 177–189, 10.1037/0022-3514.87.2.177.
8. Franke, N., Von Hippel, E., Schreier, M., Finding commercially attractive user innovations: a test of lead-user theory. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 23 (2006), 301–315, 10.1111/j.1540-5885.2006.00203.x.
9. Friedman, R.S., Förster, J., The effects of promotion and prevention cues on creativity. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 81 (2001), 1001–1013, 10.1037/0022-3514.81.6.1001.
10. Galinsky, A.D., Moskowitz, G.B., Counterfactuals as behavioral primes: priming the simulation heuristic and consideration of alternatives. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 36 (2000), 384–409 http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jesp.1999.1409.
11. Guilford, J.P., Intelligence, Creativity, and Their Educational Implications. 1968, Knapp, New York, NY.
12. Guilford, J.P., Cognitive psychology's ambiguities: some suggested remedies. Psychol. Rev. 89 (1982), 48–59, 10.1037/0033-295X.89.1.48.
13. Kiyokawa, S., Washida, Y., Ueda, K., Peng, E., Can diverse information improve idea generation?. Cogn. Stud. 17 (2010), 635–649.
14. Kristensson, P., Gustafsson, A., Archer, T., Harnessing the creative potential among users. J. Prod. Innov. Manag. 21 (2004), 4–14, 10.1111/j.0737-6782.2004.00050.x.
15. Kuhn, K.M., Sniezek, J.A., Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 9 (1996), 231–247, 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199612)9:4<231::AID-BDM240>3.0.CO;2-L.
16. Lesca, N., (eds.) Environmental Scanning and Sustainable Development, 2013, John Wiley & Sons.
17. Loveridge, D., Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future. 2008, Routledge.
18. Maddux, W.W., Galinsky, A.D., Cultural borders and mental barriers: The relationship between living abroad and creativity. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 96 (2009), 1047–1061, 10.1037/a0014861.
19. Markman, K.D., Lindberg, M.J., Kray, L.J., Galinsky, A.D., Implications of counterfactual structure for creative generation and analytical problem solving. Personal. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 33 (2007), 312–324, 10.1177/0146167206296106.
20. Meissner, P., Wulf, T., Cognitive benefits of scenario planning: its impact on biases and decision quality. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 80 (2013), 801–814, 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.011.
21. Moreau, C.P., Dahl, D.W., Designing the solution: the impact of constraints on consumers' creativity. J. Consum. Res. 32 (2005), 13–22, 10.1086/429597.
22. Mueller, G., Smith, J.B., Six “commandments” for successful futures studies for corporate planning null. J. Bus. Strategy 5 (1984), 88–92, 10.1108/eb039063.
23. Nijstad, B.A., Stroebe, W., How the group affects the mind: a cognitive model of idea generation in groups. Personal. Soc. Psychol. Rev. 10 (2006), 186–213, 10.1207/s15327957pspr1003_1.
24. Nijstad, B.A., Stroebe, W., Lodewijkx, H.F.M., Cognitive stimulation and interference in groups: exposure effects in an idea generation task. J. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 38 (2002), 535–544 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1031(02)00500-0.
25. Phadnis, S., Caplice, C., Sheffi, Y., Singh, M., Effect of scenario planning on field experts' judgment of long-range investment decisions. Strateg. Manag. J. 36 (2015), 1401–1411, 10.1002/smj.2293.
26. Schoemaker, P.J.H., Multiple scenario development: Its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strateg. Manag. J. 14 (1993), 193–213, 10.1002/smj.4250140304.
27. Sternberg, R.J., A propulsion model of types of creative contributions. Rev. Gen. Psychol. 3 (1999), 83–100, 10.1037/1089-2680.3.2.83.
28. Stoffels, J.D., Strategic Issues Management: A Comprehensive Guide to Environmental Scanning. 1994, Pergamon.
29. Wajima, Y., Washida, Y., Tominaga, N., Ueda, K., Improvement in quality of business ideas by introducing user perspective. Jpn. Soc. Artif. Intell. 28 (2013), 409–419, 10.1527/tjsai.28.409.
30. Washida, Y., Foresight. 2007, NTT Publish CO., Ltd., Tokyo.
31. Washida, Y., Mitsuishi, S., Horii, H., A future scenario generation experiment in socio-technological problems using scanning method. SOCIOTECHNICA 6 (2009), 1–15, 10.3392/sociotechnica.6.1.
32. Wright, G., Goodwin, P., Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. Int. J. Forecast. 25 (2009), 813–825 (doi:0.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019).