How trump lost and won

Journal of Democracy

Volumn 28, Issue 2, 2017, Pages 34-44

  Sides, John ^a   Tesler, Michael ^b   Vavreck, Lynn ^c  

^a GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 85017513820     PISSN: 10455736     EISSN: 10863214     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1353/jod.2017.0022     Document Type: Note

References (25)

1. Brian Stelter, “In Their Own Words: The Story of Covering Election Night 2016,” CNN, 5 January 2017, http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/05/media/election-night-news-coverage-oral-history/index.html.
2. The final vote count when the Electoral College met in December was instead 304 votes for Trump and 227 for Clinton, as seven electors declined to support their party’s chosen candidate.
3. See John Sides, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck, “The Electoral Landscape of 2016,” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 667 (September 2016): 50-71.
4. Alan I. Abramowitz, “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for- Change Model,” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (October 2008): 691–95
5. Christopher Wlezien, “Policy (Mis)Representation and the Costs of Ruling: U.S. Presidential Elections in Comparative Perspective,” Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming in print, online 10 February 2016 at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0010414015626446.
6. A forecast based on the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rather than on GDP also gave Democrats 51.8 percent of the major-party vote. See Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, “Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and the Polls,” PS: Political Science and Politics 49 (October 2016): 669-72.
7. Michael Tesler, Post-Racial or Most-Racial? Race and Politics in the Obama Era (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016).
8. Karthick Ramakrishnan and Taeku Lee, “Asian Americans Voted Democrat. We Should Not Be Surprised,” Monkey Cage, 29 November 2012, http://themonkeycage.org/2012/11/asian-americans-voted-democrat-we-should-not-be-surprised.
9. Cornell Belcher, A Black Man in the White House: Barack Obama and the Triggering of America’s Racial-Aversion Crisis (Healdsburg, Calif.: Water Street Press, 2016)
10. Tesler, Post-Racial or Most-Racial? and “How Racially Resentful Working-Class Whites Fled the Democratic Party—Before Donald Trump,” Washington Post, Monkey Cage blog, 21 November 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/21/how-raciallyresentful-working-class-whites-fled-the-democratic-party-before-donald-trump.
11. Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman, “Hillary Clinton Traces Friendly Path, Troubling Party,” New York Times, 6 June 2015.
12. Sean Trende, “The Case of the Missing White Voters, Revisited,” Real Clear Politics, 21 June 2013, www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/06/21/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_revisited_118893.html
13. Thomas B. Edsall, “Should the Republican Party Just Focus on White Voters?” New York Times, Opinionator blog, 3 July 2013, https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/should-republicans-just-focus-on-white-voters
14. Larry Bartels, “Can the Republican Party Thrive on White Identity?” Washington Post, Monkey Cage blog, 16 April 2014 www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/04/16/can-the-republican-party-thrive-on-white-identity
15. Zoltan L. Hajnal, “Opposition to Immigration Reform is a Winning Strategy for Republicans,” Washington Post, Monkey Cage blog, 27 February 2015, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/ wp/2015/02/27/opposition-to-immigration-reform-is-a-winning-strategy-for-republicans.
16. Michael Tesler and John Sides, “How Political Science Helps Explain the Rise of Trump: The Role of White Identity and Grievances,” Washington Post, Monkey Cage blog, 3 March 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/03/how-politicalscience-helps-explain-the-rise-of-trump-the-role-of-white-identity-and-grievances
17. Tesler, “Trump Is the First Modern Republican to Win the Nomination Based on Racial Prejudice,” Washington Post, Monkey Cage blog, 1 August 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/08/01/trump-is-the-first-republican-in-modern-times-to-win-thepartys-nomination-on-anti-minority-sentiments
18. Tesler, “In a Trump-Clinton Match-Up, Racial Prejudice Makes a Striking Difference,” 25 May 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/ news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/25/in-a-trump-clinton-match-up-theres-a-striking-effectof-racial-prejudice
19. Tesler, “Views About Race Mattered More in Electing Trump than in Electing Obama,” 22 November 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/22/peoples-views-about-race-mattered-more-in-electing-trump-than-in-electing-obama
20. Tesler, “The Education Gap Among Whites This Year Wasn’t About Education. It Was About Race,” 16 November 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/16/the-education-gap-among-whites-this-year-wasnt-about-education-it-wasabout- race
21. See also Brian F. Schaffner, Matthew MacWilliams, and Tatishe Nteta, “Explaining White Polarization in the 2016 Vote for President: The Sobering Role of Racism and Sexism,” paper prepared for the conference “The U.S. Elections of 2016: Domestic and International Aspects,” Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel, 8–9 January 2017, http://people.umass.edu/schaffne/schaffner_et_al_IDC_conference.pdf.
22. John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Election (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013).
23. Very few respondents reported not voting in 2016, which is typical in survey data.
24. Alec Tyson and Shiva Maniam, “Behind Trump’s Victory: Divisions by Race, Gender, Education,” Pew Research Center, 9 November 2016, www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education.
25. Vote choice is measured as a dichotomy (Obama versus Romney, Clinton versus Trump). Several of the independent variables were scales constructed from multiple measures: for economic issues, support for taxes on the wealthy and government regulation of business; for social issues, support for abortion and same-sex marriage; for health care, support for the government’s responsibility to provide health care and the Affordable Care Act in particular; and for African Americans, the battery called “racial resentment” (see Donald R. Kinder and Lynn M. Sanders, Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals [Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996]). Attitudes toward trade were measured with a single item asking respondents whether they favored or opposed increasing trade with other nations.