The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 7, Issue 4, 2017, Pages 268-274

  Wang, Guiling ^a   Wang, Dagang ^a,b   Trenberth, Kevin E ^c   Erfanian, Amir ^a   Yu, Miao ^a,d   Bosilovich, Michael G ^e   Parr, Dana T ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^b SUN YAT SEN UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^e NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; EXTREME EVENT; FUTURE PROSPECT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TEMPERATURE PROFILE;

EID: 85017169827     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3239     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Trenberth, K. Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrologic cycle with climate change. Climatic Change 42, 327-339 (1999).
2. Trenberth, K., Dai, A., Rasmsussen, R. &Parsons, D. The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1205-1217 (2003).
3. Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J. &Meehl, G. Going to the extremes. Climatic Change 79, 185-211 (2006).
4. Kharin, V. V. et al. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Clim. 20, 1419-1444 (2007).
5. Kharin, V. V., Zwiers, F.W., Zhang, X. &Wehner, M. Changes in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble. Climatic Change 119, 345-357 (2013).
6. Berg, P. et al. Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D18102 (2009).
7. Hardwick Jones, R. et al. Observed relationships between extreme sub-daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L22805 (2010).
8. Utsumi, N. et al. Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation? Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L16708 (2011).
9. Maeda, E. E. et al. Decreasing precipitation extremes at higher temperatures in tropical regions. Nat. Hazards 64, 935-941 (2012).
10. Hegerl, G. E. et al. Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 1097-1115 (2015).
11. Groisman, P. et al. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Clim. 18, 1326-1350 (2005).
12. Fischer, E. M. &Kutti, R. Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 986-991 (2016).
13. Huntington, T. G., Richardson, A. D., McGuire, K. J. &Hayhoe, K. Review: climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems. Can. J. Forest Res. 39, 199-212 (2009).
14. Easterling, D. R. et al. Climate extremes: observations, modeling and impacts. Science 289, 2068-2074 (2000).
15. Allan, R. &Soden, B. Atmospheric warming and amplification of precipitation extremes. Science 321, 1481-1484 (2008).
16. Ahmed, K. F. et al. Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the U.S. Northeast. Glob. Planet. Change 100, 320-332 (2013).
17. Parr, D. T.,Wang, G. L. &Bjerklie, D. Integrating remote sensing data on evapotranspiration and leaf area index with hydrological modeling: impacts on model performance and future predictions. J. Hydrometeorol. 16, 2086-2100 (2015).
18. O'Gorman, P. A. Precipitation extremes under climate change. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 1, 49-59 (2015).
19. Lenderink, G. et al. Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones-Hong Kong and the Netherlands. Hydro. Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 3033-3041 (2011).
20. Lenderink, G. &van Meijgaard, E. Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat. Geosci. 1, 511-514 (2008).
21. Shaw, S. B. et al. The relationship between extreme hourly precipitation and surface temperature in different hydroclimatic regions of the United States. J. Hydrometeorol. 12, 319-325 (2011).
22. Mishra, V. et al. Relationship between hourly extreme precipitation and local air temperature in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L16403 (2012).
23. Boucher, O. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 571-657 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
24. Seager, R., Naik, N. &Vecchi, G. A. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Clim. 23, 4651-4668 (2010).
25. Ban, N., Schmidli, J. &Schär, C. Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 1165-1172 (2015).
26. Chan, S. C. et al. Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days. Nat. Geosci. 9, 24-28 (2016).
27. Christensen, J. H. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (ed. Stocker, T. F.) 1217-1308 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
28. O'Gorman, P. A. Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change. Nat. Geosci. 5, 697-700 (2012).
29. O'Gorman, P. A. &Schneider, T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 14773-14777 (2009).
30. Sherwood, S. &Fu, Q. A drier future? Science 343, 737-739 (2014).