Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 50, Issue 1-2, 2018, Pages 159-178

  Shukla, Ravi P ^a   Huang, Bohua ^a,b   Marx, L ^a   Kinter, James L ^a,b   Shin, Chul Su ^a,b  

^a CENTER FOR OCEAN LAND ATMOSPHERE STUDIES   (United States)

^b GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Implication of the initial shock effect; Indian summer monsoon; NCEP CFSv2; Predictability

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; MONSOON; RAINFALL; SEASONALITY;

ARABIAN SEA; INDIAN OCEAN;

EID: 85014544976     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3594-0     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Achuthavarier D, Krishnamurthy V, Kirtman BP, Huang B (2012) Role of Indian Ocean in the ENSO-Indian summer monsoon teleconnection in the NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 25:2490–2508
2. Adler RF, Huffman GJ, Chang A, Ferraro R, Xie PP, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Bolvin D, Gruber A, Susskind J, Arkin P, Nelkin E (2003) The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). J Hydrometeorol 4:1147–1167
3. Balmaseda M, Vidard A, Anderson D (2008) The ECMWF System 3 ocean analysis system. Mon Weather Rev 136:3018–3034. doi:10.1175/2008MWR2433.1
4. Behringer DW (2005) The global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS) at NCEP, paper presented at 11th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS), Am. Meteorol. Soc., San Antonio, Tex
5. Charney JG, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 99–109
6. Chattopadhyay R, Rao SA, Sabeerali CT, George G, Rao DN, Dhakate A, Salunke K (2015) Large-scale teleconnection patterns of Indian summer monsoon as revealed by CFSv2 retrospective seasonal forecast runs. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4556
7. Chaudhari HS, Pokhrel S, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Yadav RK, Salunke K, Mahapatra S, Sabeerali CT, Rao SA (2013) Model biases in long coupled runs of NCEP CFS in the context of Indian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 33:1057–1069
8. DelSole T, Shukla J (2010) Model fidelity versus skill in seasonal forecasting. J Clim 23(18):4794–4806
9. Findlater J (1969) A major low-level air current near the Indian Ocean during the northern summer. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 95:362–380
10. Gadgil S, Gadgil S (2006) The Indian monsoon, GDP and agriculture. Econ Political Wkly 41(47):4887–4895
11. Huang B, Kinter JL III (2002) Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. J Geophys Res 107(C11):3199. doi:10.1029/2001JC001278
12. Huang B, Shukla J (2007a) Mechanisms for the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Part I: the role of remote forcing from the tropical pacific. J Clim 20:2917–2936
13. Huang B, Shukla J (2007b) Mechanisms for the interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Part II: regional processes. J Clim 20:2937–2960
14. Huang B, Zhu J, Marx L, Wu X, Kumar A, Z.Z. Hu, Balmaseda MA, Zhang S, Lu J, E.K. Schneider EK, Kinter JL (2015) Climate drift of AMOC, North Atlantic salinity and arctic sea ice in CFSv2 decadal predictions. Clim Dyn 44:559–583. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2395-y
15. Izumo T, Montégut CB, Luo JJ, Behera SK, Masson S, Yamagata T (2008) The role of the western Arabian Sea upwelling in Indian monsoon rainfall variability. J Clim 21(21):5603–5623
16. Jiang X, Song Yang, Yueqing Li, Arun Kumar, Xiangwen Liu, Zhiyan Zuo, Bhaskar Jha (2013) Seasonal-to-Interannual prediction of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 26:3708–3727
17. Joshi UR, Rajeevan M (2006) Trends in precipitation extremes over India. National Climate Centre, India Meteorological Department.
18. Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
19. Levine RC, Turner AG (2012) Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases. Clim Dyn 38:2167–2190. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1096-z
20. Levine RC, Turner AG, Marathayil D, Martin GM (2013) The role of northern Arabian Sea surface temperature biases in CMIP5 model simulations and future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 41:155–172. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1656-x
21. Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic non-periodic flows. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141
22. Mulholland DP, Laloyaux P, Haines K, Balmaseda MA (2015) Origin and impact of initialization shocks in coupled atmosphere–ocean forecasts*. Mon Weather Rev 143(11):4631–4644
23. Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1988) Regression model for estimation of Indian food grain production from Indian summer rainfall. Agric For Meteorol 42:167–182
24. Pokhrel S, Saha SK, Dhakate A, Rahman H, Chaudhari HS, Salunke K, Hazra A, Sujith K and Sikka, DR (2016) Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error. Clim Dyn 46(7–8):2305–2326.
25. Rahmstorf S (1995) Climate drift in an ocean model coupled to a simple, perfectly matched atmosphere. Clim Dyn 11(8):447–458
26. Rajeevan M, Guhathakurta P, Thapliyal V (2000) New models for long range forecasts of summer monsoon rainfall over Northwest and Peninsular India. Meteorol Atmos Phys 73:211–225
27. Rajeevan M, Pa DS, Dikshit SK, and Kelkar RR (2004) IMD’s new operational models for long range forecast of south-west monsoon rainfall over India and their verification for. Curr Sci 86:422–431
28. Rao KG, Goswami BN (1988) Interannual variations of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the Indian monsoon: a new perspective. Mon Wea Rev 116:558–568
29. Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Wea Rev 111:517–528
30. Saha K (1970) Zonal Anomaly of sea surface temperature in equatorial Indian Ocean and its possible effect upon monsoon circulation. Tellus 22:403–409
31. Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
32. Saha SK, Pokhrel S, Chaudhari HS, Dhakate A, Shewale S, Sabeerali CT, Salunke K, Hazra A, Mahapatra S, Rao AS (2014a) Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run. Int J Climatol 34:1628–1641
33. Saha S, Shrinivas Moorthi, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Iredell M, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Yang R, Malaquías Mendez P, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wang W, Mingyue Chen, Emily B (2014b) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208
34. Saha SK, S Pokhrel, Salunke K, Dhakate A, Chaudhari HS, Rahaman H, Sujith K, Hazra A, Sikka DR (2016) Potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2. J Adv Model Earth Syst 8:96–120. doi:10.1002/2015MS000542.
35. Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN, Yamagata T (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature 401:360–363
36. Sausen R, Barthel K, Hasselmann K (1988) Coupled ocean-atmosphere models with flux correction. Clim Dyn 2(3):145–163
37. Shukla J (1975) Effect of Arabian sea-surface temperature anomaly on Indian summer monsoon: a numerical experiment with the GFDL mode. J Atmos Sci 32:503–511
38. Shukla J (1981) Dynamical predictability of monthly means. J Atmos Sci 38:2547–2572
39. Shukla J (1987) Interannual variability of monsoons. In: Fein JS, Stephens PI (eds) Monsoons. Wiley, New York, pp 632
40. Shukla RP, Bohua Huang (2015a) Interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon associated with the air-sea feedback in the northern Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2687-x
41. Shukla RP, Bohua Huang (2015b) Mean state and interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon simulation by NCEP CFSv2. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2808-6
42. Shukla RP, Kinter JL (2014) Simulation of the Asian Monsoon using a regionally-coupled global climate mode. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2188-3
43. Shukla J, Misra BM (1977) Relationships between sea surface temperature and wind speed over the central Arabian Sea, and the monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Wea Rev 105:998–1002
44. Shukla J, Paolin DA (1983) The Southern oscillation and long range forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Wea Rev 11:1830–1837
45. Shukla RP, Tripathi KC, Pandey AC and Das IML (2011) Prediction of Indian Summer monsoon rainfall using Niño indices: a neural network approach. Atmos Res 102(1) 99–109. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.06.013
46. Slingo J, Palmer T (2011) Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Philos Trans R Soc Lond A Math Phys Eng Sci 369(1956):4751–4767
47. Smith MT, Reynolds WR, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296
48. Walker GT (1923) Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, VIII. A preliminary study of world weather. Mem India Meteorol Dep 24(4):75–131
49. Wang B, Ding Q, Fu X, Kang I-S, Shukla J, Doblas-Reyes F (2005) Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32:L15711. doi:10.1029/2005GL022734
50. Webster PJ and Yang S (1992) Monsoon and ENSO: selectively interactive systems. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 118:877–926
51. Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability and the prospectsfor prediction. J Geophys Res 103(14 451–14):510
52. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2004) Impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship. J Clim 17:3037–3054
53. Wu R, Kirtman BP (2005) Roles of Indian and Pacific Ocean air–sea coupling in tropical atmospheric variability. Clim Dyn 25:155–170
54. Xie S-P, Annamalai H, Schott F, McCreary JP Jr (2002) Structure and mechanism of South Indian Ocean climate variability. J Climate 15:864–878
55. Zhang S (2011a) Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions: Simulation with a simple pycnocline prediction model. Geophys Res Lett 38:L02702. doi:10.1029/2010GL046133
56. Zhang S (2011b) A study of impacts of coupled model initial shocks and state-parameter optimization on climate predictions using a simple pycnocline prediction model. J Clim 24(23):6210–6226
57. Zhu J, Shukla J (2013) The role of air–sea coupling in seasonal prediction of Asia-Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 26:5689–5697