The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

Asian Population Studies

Volumn 13, Issue 2, 2017, Pages 172-197

  Chen, Quanrun ^a   Dietzenbacher, Erik ^b   Los, Bart ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

ageing; China; labour force; Population projection; urbanisation

Indexed keywords

AGING POPULATION; DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; FUTURE PROSPECT; LABOR SUPPLY; POPULATION STRUCTURE; RURAL POPULATION; URBAN POPULATION; URBANIZATION;

CHINA;

EID: 85013659993     PISSN: 17441730     EISSN: 17441749     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2017.1286071     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Booth, H., (2006). Demographic forecasting:1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 547–581. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.04.001
2. Cai, Y., (2013). China’s new demographic reality:Learning from the 2010 census. Population and Development Review, 39(3), 371–396. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00608.x
3. Girosi, F., & King, G., (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton:Princeton University Press.
4. Goodkind, D., (2011). Child underreporting, fertility, and sex ratio imbalance in China. Demography, 48(1), 291–316. doi:10.1007/s13524-010-0007-y
5. Guo, Z., (2004). Study for fertility of China in the 1990s. Population Research, 28(2), 10–19 (in Chinese).
6. Hu, Y., (2003). Quantitative analyses on the rural-urban population transition in the urbanization process. Statistical Research, 20(7), 20–24 (in Chinese).
7. Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R., (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265
8. Li, N., Lee, R. D., & Gerland, P., (2013). Extending the Lee-Carter method to model the rotation of age patterns of mortality decline for long-term projections. Demography, 50(6), 2037–2051. doi:10.1007/s13524-013-0232-2
9. Mai, Y., Peng, X., & Chen, W., (2013). How fast is the population ageing in China? Asian Population Studies, 9(2), 216–239. doi:10.1080/17441730.2013.797295
10. Ministry of Civil Affairs of China (MCA). (2011). China civil affairs’ statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press (in Chinese).
11. Ministry of Education of China. (various years). Educational statistics year book of China. Beijing:People’s Education Press (in Chinese).
12. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). (2002). China 2000 population census tabulations. Beijing:China Statistics Press (in Chinese).
13. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). (2012). China 2010 national population census tabulations. Beijing:China Statistics Press (in Chinese).
14. Poston, D. L., & Gu, B., (1987). Socioeconomic development, family planning and fertility in China. Demography, 24(4), 531–551. doi:10.2307/2061390
15. Rogers, A., (1995). Multiregional demography:Principles, methods and extensions. Chichester:John Wiley.
16. Shen, J., (1991). Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics for China. Environment and Planning A, 23(12), 1797–1810. doi:10.1068/a231797
17. Shen, J., (1994). Spatial-dynamic population systems:Analysis and projection. Environment and Planning A, 26(3), 471–488. doi:10.1068/a260471
18. Shen, J., (1998). China’s future population and development challenges. The Geographical Journal, 164(1), 32–40. doi:10.2307/3060543
19. Shen, J., & Spence, N. A., (1996). Modelling urban-rural population growth in China. Environment and Planning A, 28(8), 1417–1444. doi:10.1068/a281417
20. Shen, J., & Spence, N. A., (1997). Modelling regional population growth in China. Mathematical Population Studies, 6(3), 241–274. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08898489709525434
21. Sun, M., & Fan, C., (2011). China’s permanent and temporary migrants:Differentials and changes, 1990–2000. The Professional Geographer, 63(1), 92–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00330124.2010.533562
22. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (1956). The aging of population and its economic and social implications. New York:United Nations.
23. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2014). World urbanization prospects, the 2014 revision, highlights. New York:United Nations.
24. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2015). World population prospects, the 2015 revision. New York:United Nations.
25. Wang, W., (1988). Population systems engineering. Shanghai:Shanghai Transportation University Press.
26. Wilson, T., & Rees, P., (2005). Recent developments in population projection methodology:A review. Population, Space and Place, 11(5), 337–360. doi:10.1002/psp.389
27. Zeng, Y., (2006). A soft landing with the two-children-late-birth policy:Need and feasibility. Social Sciences in China, 58(2), 93–109 (in Chinese).
28. Zeng, Y., (2007). Options for fertility policy transition in China. Population and Development Review, 33(2), 215–246. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00168.x
29. Zeng, Y., & Vaupel, J. W., (1989). The impact of urbanization and delayed childbearing on population growth and aging in China. Population and Development Review, 15(3), 425–445. doi:10.2307/1972441
30. Zhai, Z., & Chen, W., (2007). Chinese fertility in the 1990s. Population Research, 31, 19–32 (In Chinese).
31. Zhang, G., & Zhao, Z., (2006). Reexamining China’s fertility puzzle:Data collection and quality over the last two decades. Population and Development Review, 32(2), 293–321. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00119.x
32. Zhang, K. H., & Song, S., (2003). Rural-urban migration and urbanization in China:Evidence from time-series and cross-section analyses. China Economic Review, 14(4), 386–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2003.09.018
33. Zhang, L., (2012). Economic migration and urban citizenship in China:The role of points systems. Population and Development Review, 38(3), 503–533. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2012.00514.x
34. Zheng, X., (2011). China when its aggregate economy becomes the first in the world. In S., Li & Y., Liu (Eds.), The Chinese economy in 2030 (pp. 1–3). Beijing:Economic Science Press (in Chinese).
35. Zhou, Y., & Ma, L. J. C., (2003). China’s urbanization levels:Reconstructing a baseline from the fifth population census. The China Quarterly, 173, 176–196. doi:10.1017/S000944390300010X
36. Zhu, N., (2002). The impact of income gaps on migration decisions in China. China Economic Review, 13(2–3), 213–230. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1043-951X(02)00074-3