How important are realistic building lifespan assumptions for material stock and demolition waste accounts?

Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Volumn 122, Issue , 2017, Pages 143-154

  Miatto, Alessio ^a   Schandl, Heinz ^a,b   Tanikawa, Hiroki ^a  

^a NAGOYA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

Author keywords

Buildings; Demolition; Distribution; Lifespan analysis; Material stock analysis; MFA; Modelling

Indexed keywords

BUILDING MATERIALS; BUILDINGS; DEMOLITION; DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS; MODELS;

BUILDING CHARACTERISTICS; DIFFERENT DISTRIBUTIONS; DISTRIBUTION; ESTIMATION PROCEDURES; INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY; LIFE SPAN; RIGHT-SKEWED DISTRIBUTIONS; STOCK ANALYSIS;

WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION;

BUILDING; DEMOLITION; MODELING; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; WASTE;

BEHAVIOR; CALCULATION; CITY; JAPAN; LIFESPAN; MODEL; PROFIT; RELIABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

AICHI; CHUBU; ENGLAND; HONSHU; JAPAN; KINKI; NAGOYA; SALFORD [ENGLAND]; SALFORD [SALFORD (DST)]; UNITED KINGDOM; WAKAYAMA [KINKI]; WAKAYAMA [WAKAYAMA (PRF)];

EID: 85013152643     PISSN: 09213449     EISSN: 18790658     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.015     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Adriaanse, A., Bringezu, S., Hammond, A., Moriguchi, Y., Rodenburg, E., Rogich, D., Schütz, H., Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies. 1997, World Resources Institute Washington, DC.
2. Aksözen, M., Hassler, U., Kohler, N., Reconstitution of the dynamics of an urban building stock. Build. Res. Inf., 0, 2016, 20, 10.1080/09613218.2016.1152040.
3. Aksözen, M., Hassler, U., Rivallain, M., Kohler, N., Mortality analysis of an urban building stock. Build. Res. Inf. 0 (2016), 1–19, 10.1080/09613218.2016.1152531.
4. Allen, S., Hinks, J., How long should housing last?: Some implications of the age and probable life of housing in England. Constr. Manage. Econ. 14 (1996), 531–535.
5. Bradley, E.P., Kohler, N., Methodology for the survival analysis of urban building stocks. Build. Res. Inf. 35 (2007), 529–542.
6. Cai, W., Wan, L., Jiang, Y., Wang, C., Lin, L., Short-lived buildings in China: impacts on water energy, and carbon emissions. Environ. Sci. Technol., 0, 2015, 8, 10.1021/acs.est.5b02333.
7. Chen, W.-Q., Shi, L., Analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in mainland China from 1950 to 2009: exploring the dynamics driving the rapid increase in China's aluminum production. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 65 (2012), 18–28, 10.1016/j.resconrec.2012.05.003.
8. Deilmann, C., Effenberger, K.-H., Banse, J., Housing stock shrinkage: vacancy and demolition trends in Germany. Build. Res. Inf. 37 (2009), 660–668.
9. Fischer-Kowalski, M., Krausmann, F., Giljum, S., Lutter, S., Mayer, A., Bringezu, S., Moriguchi, Y., Schütz, H., Schandl, H., Weisz, H., Methodology and indicators of economy-wide material flow accounting. J. Ind. Ecol. 15 (2011), 855–876.
10. Fishman, T., Schandl, H., Tanikawa, H., Walker, P., Krausmann, F., Accounting for the material stock of nations. J. Ind. Ecol. 18 (2014), 407–420.
11. Gierlinger, S., Krausmann, F., The physical economy of the United States of America. J. Ind. Ecol. 16 (2012), 365–377.
12. Haas, W., Krausmann, F., Wiedenhofer, D., Heinz, M., How circular is the global economy?: an assessment of material flows, waste production, and recycling in the european union and the world in 2005. J. Ind. Ecol. 19 (2015), 765–777, 10.1111/jiec.12244.
13. Hashimoto, S., Tanikawa, H., Moriguchi, Y., Where will large amounts of materials accumulated within the economy go?–a material flow analysis of construction minerals for Japan. Waste Manage. 27 (2007), 1725–1738.
14. Hatayama, H., Daigo, I., Matsuno, Y., Adachi, Y., Outlook of the world steel cycle based on the stock and flow dynamics. Environ. Sci. Technol. 44 (2010), 6457–6463, 10.1021/es100044n.
15. Hu, M., Bergsdal, H., Voet, E., van der Huppes, G., Müller, D.B., Dynamics of urban and rural housing stocks in China. Build. Res. Inf. 38 (2010), 301–317, 10.1080/09613211003729988.
16. Huuhka, S., Lahdensivu, J., Statistical and geographical study on demolished buildings. Build. Res. Inf. 44 (2016), 73–96.
17. Kapur, A., Keoleian, G., Kendall, A., Kesler, S.E., Dynamic modeling of in-use cement stocks in the United States. J. Ind. Ecol. 12 (2008), 539–556.
18. Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Nourbakhch-Sabet, R., The metabolic transition in Japan. J. Ind. Ecol. 15 (2011), 877–892.
19. Lawless, J.F., Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data. 2nd edition, 2011, John Wiley & Sons.
20. Liang, H., Tanikawa, H., Matsuno, Y., Dong, L., Modeling in-use steel stock in China's buildings and civil engineering infrastructure using time-series of DMSP/OLS nighttime lights. Remote Sens. 6 (2014), 4780–4800.
21. Lichtensteiger, T., Baccini, P., Exploration of urban stocks. J. Environ. Eng. Manage. 18 (2008), 41–48.
22. Müller, E., Hilty, L.M., Widmer, R., Schluep, M., Faulstich, M., Modeling metal stocks and flows: a review of dynamic material flow analysis methods. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48 (2014), 2102–2113, 10.1021/es403506a.
23. Müller, D.B., Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows—case study for housing in The Netherlands. Ecol. Econ. 59 (2006), 142–156.
24. Matthews, E., Amann, C., Bringezu, S., Hüttler, W., Ottke, C., Rodenburg, E., Rogich, D., Schandl, H., Van, E., Weisz, H., et al. The Weight of Nations-Material Outflows from Industrial Economies. 2000, World Resources Institute, Citeseer.
25. Patrício, J., Kalmykova, Y., Rosado, L., Lisovskaja, V., Uncertainty in material flow analysis indicators at different spatial levels. J. Ind. Ecol. 19 (2015), 837–852, 10.1111/jiec.12336.
26. Pauliuk, S., Milford, R.L., Müller, D.B., Allwood, J.M., The steel scrap age. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 (2013), 3448–3454.
27. Petersdorff, C., Boermans, T., Harnisch, J., Mitigation of CO2 emissions from the EU-15 building stock beyond the EU directive on the energy performance of buildings. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 13 (2006), 350–358.
28. Qin, Y., Suh, S., What distribution function do life cycle inventories follow?. Int. J. Life Cycle Assess., 2016, 1–8, 10.1007/s11367-016-1224-4.
29. Rauch, J.N., Global mapping of Al, Cu Fe, and Zn in-use stocks and in-ground resources. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106 (2009), 18920–18925, 10.1073/pnas.0900658106.
30. Reyna, J.L., Chester, M.V., The growth of urban building stock: unintended lock-in and embedded environmental effects. J. Ind. Ecol. 19 (2015), 524–537, 10.1111/jiec.12211.
31. Sandberg, N.H., Sartori, I., Brattebø, H., Using a dynamic segmented model to examine future renovation activities in the Norwegian dwelling stock. Energy Build. 82 (2014), 287–295, 10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.07.005.
32. Sarkar, S., Chamberlain, J.F., Miller, S.A., A comparison of two methods to conduct material flow analysis on waste tires in a small island developing state. J. Ind. Ecol. 15 (2011), 300–314, 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2010.00323.x.
33. Schaffartzik, A., Mayer, A., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Loy, C., Krausmann, F., The global metabolic transition: regional patterns and trends of global material flows, 1950–2010. Glob. Environ. Change 26 (2014), 87–97.
34. Tanikawa, H., Hashimoto, S., Urban stock over time: spatial material stock analysis using 4d-GIS. Build. Res. Inf. 37 (2009), 483–502.
35. Tanikawa, H., Fishman, T., Okuoka, K., Sugimoto, K., The weight of society over time and space: a comprehensive account of the construction material stock of Japan, 1945–2010. J. Ind. Ecol., 2015, 10.1111/jiec.12284.
36. Thomsen, A., van der Flier, K., Replacement or renovation of dwellings: the relevance of a more sustainable approach. Build. Res. Inf. 37 (2009), 649–659.
37. Thomsen, A., van der Flier, K., Understanding obsolescence: a conceptual model for buildings. Build. Res. Inf. 39 (2011), 352–362.
38. Thuvander, L., Österbring, M., Mangold, M., Mata, É., Wallbaum, H., Johnsson, F., Spatial exploration of the refurbishment dynamics of urban housing stocks. Proceedings of the Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management Conference, CUPUM, 2015.
39. USEPA, Estimating 2003 Building-Related Construction and Demolition Materials Amounts (No EPA530-R-09-002). 2009, United States Environmental Protection Agency.
40. Vásquez, F., Løvik, A.N., Sandberg, N.H., Müller, D.B., Dynamic type-cohort-time approach for the analysis of energy reductions strategies in the building stock. Energy Build. 111 (2016), 37–55, 10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.11.018.
41. Wiedenhofer, D., Steinberger, J.K., Eisenmenger, N., Haas, W., Maintenance and expansion: modeling material stocks and flows for residential buildings and transportation networks in the EU25. J. Ind. Ecol. 19 (2015), 538–551.
42. Yoshida, K., Fishman, T., Okuoka, K., Tanikawa, H., Material stock's overburden: automatic spatial detection and estimation of domestic extraction and hidden material flows. Resour. Conserv. Recycl., 2016, 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.09.010.