Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 114, Issue 8, 2017, Pages E1441-E1449

  Stock, Charles A ^a   John, Jasmin G ^a   Rykaczewski, Ryan R ^b   Asch, Rebecca G ^g   Cheung, William W L ^d   Dunne, John P ^a   Friedland, Kevin D ^e   Lam, Vicky W Y ^d   Sarmiento, Jorge L ^c   Watson, Reg A ^f  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA   (United States)

^c PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^e NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^g EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Fisheries catch; Food webs; Ocean productivity; Primary production

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; ANIMAL EXPERIMENT; ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIAN; BENTHOS; CLIMATE CHANGE; FISH; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; FISHING; FOOD CHAIN; FOOD WEB; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD; NONHUMAN; OCEAN ENVIRONMENT; PHYTOPLANKTON; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOUTHEAST ASIA; TROPHIC LEVEL; TROPICS; UNCERTAINTY; ZOOPLANKTON; ANIMAL; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; ECOSYSTEM; FISHERY; PHYSIOLOGY; PLANKTON; SEA; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA;

ADAPTATION, PHYSIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FISHERIES; FISHES; FOOD CHAIN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; PLANKTON;

EID: 85013144567     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1610238114     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Ryther JH (1969) Photosynthesis and fish production in the sea. Science 166(3901): 72-76.
2. Lindeman RL (1942) The trophic-dynamic aspect of ecology. Ecology 23(4):399-417.
3. Pauly D, Christensen V (1995) Primary production required to sustain global fisheries. Nature 374(6519):255-257.
4. Libralato S, Pranovi F, Stergiou KI, Link JS (2014) Trophodynamics in marine ecology: 70 years after Lindeman. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 512:1-7.
5. Coll M, Libralato S, Tudela S, Palomera I, Pranovi F (2008) Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean. PLoS One 3(12):e3881.
6. Pauly D, Zeller D (2016) Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. Nat Commun 7:10244.
7. Mcowen CJ, Cheung WW, Rykaczewski RR, Watson RA, Wood LJ (2015) Is fisheries production within large marine ecosystems determined by bottom-up or top-down forcing? Fish Fish 16(4):623-632.
8. Carr M-E, et al. (2006) A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 53(5):741-770.
9. Branch TA, et al. (2010) The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries. Nature 468(7322): 431-435.
10. Jennings S, van der Molen J (2015) Trophic levels of marine consumers from nitrogen stable isotope analysis: Estimation and uncertainty. ICES J Mar Sci 72(8):2289-2300.
11. Libralato S, Coll M, Tudela S, Palomera I, Pranovi F (2008) Novel index for quantification of ecosystem effects of fishing as removal of secondary production. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 355:107-129.
12. Irigoien X, et al. (2014) Large mesopelagic fishes biomass and trophic efficiency in the open ocean. Nat Commun 5:3271.
13. Jennings S, Collingridge K (2015) Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems. PLoS One 10(7):e0133794.
14. Conti L, Scardi M (2010) Fisheries yield and primary productivity in large marine ecosystems. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 410:233-244.
15. Friedland KD, et al. (2012) Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems. PLoS One 7(1):e28945.
16. Ware DM, Thomson RE (2005) Bottom-up ecosystem trophic dynamics determine fish production in the Northeast Pacific. Science 308(5726):1280-1284.
17. Woodson CB, Litvin SY (2015) Ocean fronts drive marine fishery production and biogeochemical cycling. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(6):1710-1715.
18. Iles TD, Sinclair M (1982) Atlantic herring: Stock discreteness and abundance. Science 215(4533):627-633.
19. Chassot E, et al. (2010) Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches. Ecol Lett 13(4):495-505.
20. Cheung WW, Close C, Lam V, Watson R, Pauly D (2008) Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 365:187-197.
21. Chassot E, Mélin F, Le Pape O, Gascuel D (2007) Bottom-up control regulates fisheries production at the scale of eco-regions in European seas. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 343(7): 45-55.
22. Nixon SW (1988) Physical energy inputs and the comparative ecology of lake and marine ecosystems. Limnol Oceanogr 33(4):1005-1025.
23. Iverson RL (1990) Control of marine fish production. Limnol Oceanogr 35(7): 1593-1604.
24. Chust G, et al. (2014) Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean. Glob Change Biol 20(7):2124-2139.
25. Stock C, Dunne J, John J (2014) Drivers of trophic amplification of ocean productivity trends in a changing climate. Biogeosciences 11(24):7125-7135.
26. Lefort S, et al. (2015) Spatial and body-size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change. Glob Change Biol 21(1):154-164.
27. Watson RA, et al. (2013) Global marine yield halved as fishing intensity redoubles. Fish Fish 14(4):493-503.
28. Delworth TL, et al. (2012) Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2. 5 high-resolution coupled climate model. J Clim 25(8):2755-2781.
29. Stock CA, Dunne JP, John JG (2014) Global-scale carbon and energy flows through the marine planktonic food web: An analysis with a coupled physical-biological model. Prog Oceanogr 120:1-28.
30. Anticamara J, Watson R, Gelchu A, Pauly D (2011) Global fishing effort (1950-2010): Trends, gaps, and implications. Fish Res 107(1):131-136.
31. Flood M, et al. (2014) Status of Key Australian Fish Stocks Reports 2014 (Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Canberra, ACT, Australia).
32. AFMA (2015) Australian Fisheries Management Authority Annual Report, 2014-15 (Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Canberra, ACT, Australia).
33. Froese R, Pauly D (2003) FishBase 2000: Concepts, Design and Data Sources (International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines).
34. Krause-Jensen D, Duarte CM (2016) Substantial role of macroalgae in marine carbon sequestration. Nat Geosci 9:737-742.
35. Duarte CM, Cebrian J (1996) The fate of marine autotrophic production. Limnol Oceanogr 41(8):1758-1766.
36. Deutsch C, Ferrel A, Seibel B, Pörtner H-O, Huey RB (2015) Ecophysiology. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats. Science 348(6239): 1132-1135.
37. Gillooly JF, Brown JH, West GB, Savage VM, Charnov EL (2001) Effects of size and temperature on metabolic rate. Science 293(5538):2248-2251.
38. Burnham KP, Anderson D (2003) Model Selection and Multi-Model Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach (Springer, New York).
39. Dunne JP, Armstrong RA, Gnanadesikan A, Sarmiento JL (2005) Empirical and mechanistic models for the particle export ratio. Global Biogeochem Cycles 19(4): GB4026.
40. Stock C, Dunne J (2010) Controls on the ratio of mesozooplankton production to primary production in marine ecosystems. Deep Sea Res Part I Oceanogr Res Pap 57(1):95-112.
41. Stock CA, et al. (2011) On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on living marine resources. Prog Oceanogr 88(1-4):1-27.
42. Bopp L, et al. (2013) Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: Projections with CMIP5 models. Biogeosciences 10:6225-6245.
43. Taucher J, Oschlies A (2011) Can we predict the direction of marine primary production change under global warming? Geophys Res Lett 38(2):L02603.
44. Laufkötter C, et al. (2015) Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models. Biogeosciences 12:6955-6984.
45. Saba VS, et al. (2016) Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change. J Geophys Res Oceans 121:118-132.
46. Holt J, et al. (2016) Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas. Prog Oceanogr 140: 91-115.
47. Blanchard JL, et al. (2012) Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 367(1605):2979-2989.
48. Matear R, Chamberlain M, Sun C, Feng M (2013) Climate change projection of the Tasman Sea from an eddy-resolving ocean model. J Geophys Res Oceans 118(6): 2961-2976.
49. Klaas C, Archer DE (2002) Association of sinking organic matter with various types of mineral ballast in the deep sea: Implications for the rain ratio. Global Biogeochem Cycles 16(4):1116.
50. Armstrong RA, Lee C, Hedges JI, Honjo S, Wakeham SG (2001) A new, mechanistic model for organic carbon fluxes in the ocean based on the quantitative association of POC with ballast minerals. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 49(1):219-236.
51. Polovina JJ, Dunne JP, Woodworth PA, Howell EA (2011) Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):986-995.
52. Cheung WW, et al. (2010) Large scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Glob Change Biol 16(1):24-35.
53. Sethi SA, Branch TA, Watson R (2010) Global fishery development patterns are driven by profit but not trophic level. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(27):12163-12167.
54. Juan-Jordá MJ, Mosqueira I, Cooper AB, Freire J, Dulvy NK (2011) Global population trajectories of tunas and their relatives. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(51):20650-20655.
55. Watson R, Zeller D, Pauly D (2014) Primary productivity demands of global fishing fleets. Fish Fish 15(2):231-241.
56. Swartz W, Sala E, Tracey S, Watson R, Pauly D (2010) The spatial expansion and ecological footprint of fisheries (1950 to present). PLoS One 5(12):e15143.
57. Sumaila UR, et al. (2015) Winners and losers in a world where the high seas is closed to fishing. Sci Rep 5:8481.
58. Dunne JP, Sarmiento JL, Gnanadesikan A (2007) A synthesis of global particle export from the surface ocean and cycling through the ocean interior and on the seafloor. Global Biogeochem Cycles 21(4):GB4006.
59. Henson SA, Sanders R, Madsen E (2012) Global patterns in efficiency of particulate organic carbon export and transfer to the deep ocean. Global Biogeochem Cycles 26(1):GB1028.
60. Duarte CM, Middelburg JJ, Caraco N (2005) Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle. Biogeosciences 2(1):1-8.
61. Fogarty MJ, et al. (2016) Fishery production potential of large marine ecosystems: A prototype analysis. Environ Dev 2016(17):211-219.
62. Christensen V, et al. (2015) The global ocean is an ecosystem: Simulating marine life and fisheries. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 24(5):507-517.
63. Maury O, et al. (2007) Modeling environmental effects on the size-structured energy flow through marine ecosystems. Part 1: The model. Prog Oceanogr 74(4):479-499.
64. Fulton EA, et al. (2011) Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: The Atlantis experience. Fish Fish 12(2):171-188.
65. Watson JR, Stock CA, Sarmiento JL (2015) Exploring the role of movement in determining the global distribution of marine biomass using a coupled hydrodynamic- size-based ecosystem model. Prog Oceanogr 138:521-532.
66. Sherman K, Alexander L (1986) Variability and Management of Large Marine Ecosystems (Westview, Boulder, CO).
67. Garcia H, Locarnini R, Boyer T, Antonov J (2006) World Ocean Atlas 2005. Volume 4: Nutrients (Phosphate, Nitrate, Silicate). NOAA Atlas NESDIS 64 (NESDIS/US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Washington, DC).
68. Key RM, et al. (2004) A global ocean carbon climatology: Results from Global Data Analysis Project (GLODAP). Global Biogeochem Cycles 18(4):GB4031.
69. Dunne JP, et al. (2012) GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J Clim 25(19):6646-6665.
70. Quigg A, et al. (2003) The evolutionary inheritance of elemental stoichiometry in marine phytoplankton. Nature 425(6955):291-294.
71. Bertilsson S, Berglund O, Karl DM, Chisholm SW (2003) Elemental composition of marine Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus: Implications for the ecological stoichiometry of the sea. Limnol Oceanogr 48(5):1721-1731.
72. Waite A, Bienfang PK, Harrison PJ (1992) Spring bloom sedimentation in a subarctic ecosystem. Mar Biol 114(1):119-129.
73. Schofield O, et al. (2004) Watercolors in the coastal zone: What can we see? Oceanography 17(2):24-31.
74. Dierssen HM (2010) Perspectives on empirical approaches for ocean color remote sensing of chlorophyll in a changing climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(40): 17073-17078.
75. Locarnini R, et al. (2013) World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 1: Temperature. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 73, eds Levitus S, Mishinov A (NESDIS/US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Washington, DC).
76. Zweng M, et al. (2013) World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 2: Salinity. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 74, eds Levitus S, Mishinov A (NESDIS/US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Washington, DC).
77. NASA (2015) Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) Ocean Color Data. Ocean Biology Processing Group. Available at oceandata.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/SeaWiFS/Mapped/8Day/9km/chlor-A. Accessed October 16, 2013.
78. Garcia H, et al. (2014) World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 4: Dissolved Inorganic Nutrients (Phosphate, Nitrate, Silicate). NOAA Atlas NESDIS 76, eds Levitus S, Mishinov A (NESDIS/US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Washington, DC).
79. Garcia HE, et al. (2014) World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 3: Dissolved Oxygen, Apparent Oxygen Utilization, and Oxygen Saturation. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 75, eds Levitus S, Mishinov A (NESDIS/US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Washington, DC).
80. GEBCO (2008) Gridded bathymetry data. Available at www.gebco.net/data-And-products/gridded-bathymetry-data. Accessed November 25, 2014.
81. Behrenfeld MJ, Falkowski PG (1997) Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration. Limnol Oceanogr 42(1):1-20.
82. Eppley RW (1972) Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea. Fish Bull 70(4): 1063-1085.
83. Moriarty R, O'Brien T (2013) Distribution of mesozooplankton biomass in the global ocean. Earth Syst Sci Data 5(1):45-55.
84. Hirst A, Bunker A (2003) Growth of marine planktonic copepods: Global rates and patterns in relation to chlorophyll a, temperature, and body weight. Limnol Oceanogr 48(5):1988-2010.
85. Roman M, et al. (2001) Estimates of oceanic mesozooplankton production: A comparison using the Bermuda and Hawaii time-series data. Deep Sea Res Part II Top Stud Oceanogr 49(1):175-192.
86. Henson SA, et al. (2011) A reduced estimate of the strength of the ocean's biological carbon pump. Geophys Res Lett 38(4):L04606.