Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change

Environmental Management

Volumn 59, Issue 5, 2017, Pages 792-806

  Jewitt, Debbie ^a,b   Goodman, Peter S ^b   Erasmus, Barend F N ^b   O’Connor, Timothy G ^b,c   Witkowski, Ed T F ^b  

^a EZEMVELO KZN WILDLIFE   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND   (South Africa)

^c SOUTH AFRICAN ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATION NETWORK   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Beta diversity; Climate refugia; Corridors; Ecological processes; Gradients; Protected areas

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; PLANTS (BOTANY);

BETA DIVERSITIES; CLIMATE REFUGIA; CORRIDORS; ECOLOGICAL PROCESS; GRADIENTS; PROTECTED AREAS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENT; FLORISTICS; HABITAT CORRIDOR; HABITAT LOSS; LAND COVER; PROTECTED AREA; REFUGIUM;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; GLOBAL CHANGE; HABITAT; LAND USE; LANDSCAPE; REFUGIUM; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; PLANT; SOUTH AFRICA;

KWAZULU-NATAL; SOUTH AFRICA;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; PLANTS; SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 85011672613     PISSN: 0364152X     EISSN: 14321009     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00267-017-0829-0     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Ackerly DD, Loarie SR, Cornwell WK, Weiss SB, Hamilton H, Branciforte R, Kraft NJB (2010) The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography. Divers Distrib 16:476–487
2. Anderson MG, Ferree CE (2010) Conserving the stage: Climate change and the geophysical underpinnings of species diversity. PLoS ONE 5 (7):e11554
3. Anderson MG, Clark M, Sheldon AO (2014) Estimating climate resilience for conservation across geophysical settings. Conserv Biol 28:959–970
4. Bazelet CS, Samways MJ (2011) Relative importance of management vs. design for implementation of large-scale ecological networks. Landscape Ecol 26:341–353
5. Beier P, Brost B (2010) The use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors. Conserv Biol 24:701–710
6. Beier P, Spencer W, Baldwin RF, McRae BH (2011) Toward best practices for developing regional connectivity maps. Conserv Biol 25:879–892
7. Bowers MA, Harris LC (1994) A large-scale metapopulation model of interspecific competition and environmental change. Ecol Model 72:251–273
8. Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies JM, Abel N (2001) From metaphor to measurement: resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4:765–781
9. CBD [Convention on Biological Diversity] (2011) Strategic plan for biodiversity 2011-2020 and the Aichi targets. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Available from https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets. Accessed 29 April 2016
10. Collingham YC, Huntley B (2000) Impacts of habitat fragmentation and patch size upon migration rates. Ecol Appl 10:131–144
11. Cousins SAO, Lavorel S, Davies I (2003) Modelling the effects of landscape pattern and grazing regimes on the persistence of plant species with high conservation value in grasslands in south-eastern Sweden. Landscape Ecol 18:315–332
12. Cowling RM, Pressey RL, Rouget M, Lombard AT (2003) A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot—the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. Biol Conserv 112:191–216
13. Cumming GS (2011) Spatial resilience: integrating landscape ecology, resilience, and sustainability. Landscape Ecol 26:899–909
14. Cumming GS, Olsson P, Chapin III FS, Holling CS (2013) Resilience, experimentation, and scale mismatches in social-ecological landscapes. Landscape Ecol 28:1139–1150
15. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science 332:53–58
16. Dellas E, Pattberg P (2013) Assessing the political feasibility of global options to reduce biodiversity loss. Int J Biodivers Sci Ecosyst Serv Manage 9:347–363
17. Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife (2013) KwaZulu-Natal land cover 2011 v1 (clp_KZN_2011_LC_v1_grid_w31.zip). [GIS coverage]. Pietermaritzburg: Biodiversity Research and Assessment, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife
18. Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife (2015) KZN Landform (Derived from modified 30m SRTM DEM). (landform_30mSRTMDEM_w31.zip. [GIS coverage]. Pietermaritzburg: Biodiversity Conservation Planning Division, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife)
19. Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife and GeoTerraImage (2013) 2011 KZN province land-cover mapping (from SPOT5 satellite imagery circa 2011): Data users report and metadata (version 1d). Pietermaritzburg: Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, unpublished report
20. Fahrig L (2003) Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 34:487–515
21. Ferrier S (2002) Mapping spatial pattern in biodiversity for regional conservation planning: where to from here? Syst Biol 51:331–363
22. Fitzpatrick MC, Sanders NJ, Normand S, Svenning J-C, Ferrier S, Gove AD, Dunn RR (2013) Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients. P R Soc B 280:20131201. doi:10.1098/rspb.2013.1201
23. Flather CH, Bevers M (2002) Patchy reaction-diffusion and population abundance: the relative importance of habitat amount and arrangement. Am Nat 159:40–56
24. Fourie L, Rouget M, Lötter M (2015) Landscape connectivity of the grassland biome in Mpumalanga, South Africa. Austral Ecol 40:67–76
25. Freedman AH, Buermann W, Mitchard ETA, DeFries RS, Smith TB (2010) Human impacts flatten rainforest-savanna gradient and reduce adaptive diversity in a rainforest bird. PloS ONE 5(9):e13088. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013088
26. Groves CR, Game ET, Anderson MG, Cross M, Enquist C, Ferdaña Z, Girvetz E, Gondor A, Hall KR, Higgins J, Marshall R, Popper K, Schill S, Shafer SL (2012) Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv 21:1651–1671
27. Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, Araújo M, Hughes G, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R, Williams P (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Front Ecol Environ 5:131–138
28. Harris LD, Scheck J (1991) From implications to applications: the dispersal corridor principle applied to the conservation of biological diversity. In: Saunders DA, Hobbs RJ (eds) Nature Conservation 2: the role of corridors. Surrey Beatty & Sons, Sydney, NSW, pp 189–220
29. Heller NE, Zavaleta ES (2009) Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol Conserv 142:14–32
30. Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 4:1–23
31. Hunter ML, Jacobson GL, Webb T (1988) Paleoecology and the coarse-filter approach to maintaining biological diversity. Conserv Biol 2:375–385
32. Jewitt D (2014) KZN vegetation types: targets, statistics and conservation status (December 2014). Unpublished report, Biodiversity Research and Assessment, Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, Pietermaritzburg
33. Jewitt D, Erasmus BFN, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Hargrove WW, Maddalena DM, Witkowski ETF (2015a) Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: a conservation based vulnerability framework. Appl Geogr 63:33–42
34. Jewitt D, Goodman PS, Erasmus BFN, O’Connor TG, Witkowski ETF (2015b) Systematic land-cover change in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Implications for biodiversity. S Afr J Sci 111(9/10):9. doi:10.17159/sajs.2015/20150019. 2015Art. #2015-0019pages
35. Jewitt D, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Witkowski ETF (2015c) Floristic composition in relation to environmental gradients across KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Austral Ecol 40:287–299
36. Jewitt D, Goodman PS, O’Connor TG, Erasmus BFN, Witkowski EF (2016) Mapping landscape beta diversity of plants across KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, for aiding conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv 25:2641–2654
37. Jones-Farrand DT, Fearer TM, Thogmartin WE, Thompson III FR, Nelson MD, Tirpak JM (2011) Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction. Ecol Appl 21:2269–2282
38. Joppa LN, O’Connor B, Visconti P, Smith C, Geldmann J, Hoffmann M, Watson JEM, Butchart SHM, Virah-Sawmy M, Halpern BS, Ahmed SE, Balmford A, Sutherland WJ, Harfoot M, Hilton-Taylor C, Foden W, Di Minin E, Pagad S, Genovesi P, Hutton J, Burgess ND (2016) Filling in biodiversity threat gaps. Science 352:416–418. doi:10.1126/science.aaf3565
39. Kark S, van Rensburg BJ (2006) Ecotones: marginal or central areas of transition? Isr J Ecol Evol 52:29–53
40. Koen EL, Garroway CJ, Wilson PJ, Bowman J (2010) The effect of map boundary on estimates of landscape resistance to animal movement. PLoS ONE 5(7):e11785. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011785
41. Laliberté E, Wells JA, DeClerck F, Metcalfe DJ, Catterall CP, Queiroz C, Aubin I, Bonser SP, Ding Y, Fraterrigo JM, McNamara S, Morgan JW, Sánchez Merlos D, Vesk PA, Mayfield MM (2010) Land-use intensification reduces functional redundancy and response diversity in plant communities. Ecol Lett 13:76–86
42. Lawler JJ (2009) Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning. Ann NY Acad Sci 1162:79–98
43. Lindenmayer DB, Wood JT, McBurney L, MacGregor C, Youngentob K, Banks SC (2011) How to make a common species rare: a case against conservation complacency. Biol Conserv 144:1663–1672
44. Maciejewski K, Cumming GS (2016) Multi-scale network analysis shows scale-dependency of significance of individual protected areas for connectivity. Landscape Ecol 31:761–774
45. Margules CR, Pressey RL (2000) Systematic conservation planning. Nature 405:243–253
46. McCune B, Grace JB (2002) Analysis of Ecological Communities. MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, OR
47. McKnight MW, White PS, McDonald RI, Lamoreux JF, Sechrest W, Ridgely RS, Stuart SN (2007) Putting beta-diversity on the map: broad-scale congruence and coincidence in the extremes. PLoS Biol 5(10):e272. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0050272
48. McRae BH (2012a) Pinchpoint Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper
49. McRae BH (2012b) Centrality Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seatlle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper
50. McRae BH, Dickson BG, Keitt TH, Shah VB (2008) Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation. Ecology 89(10):2712–2724
51. McRae BH, Kavanagh DM (2011) Linkage Mapper Connectivity Analysis Software. The Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA, Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org/linkagemapper
52. McRae BH, Shah VB, Mohapatra TK (2013) Circuitscape 4 User Guide. The Nature Conservancy. Available at: http://www.circuitscape.org
53. Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Thuiller W, Booth A (2003) Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region. Biol Conserv 112:87–97
54. Monzón J, Moyer-Horner L, Palamar MB (2011) Climate change and species range dynamics in protected areas. BioScience 61:752–761
55. Nelson DR, Adger WN, Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework. Annu Rev Environ Resour 32:395–419
56. Noss RF, Dobson AP, Baldwin R, Beier P, Davis CR, Dellasala DA, Francis J, Locke H, Nowak K, Lopez R, Reining C, Trombulak SC, Tabor G (2012) Bolder thinking for conservation. Conserv Biol 26:1–4. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01738.x
57. Nuñez TA, Lawler JJ, McRae BH, Pierce DJ, Krosby MB, Kavanagh DM, Singleton PH, Tewksbury JJ (2013) Connectivity planning to address climate change. Conserv Biol 27:407–416
58. O’Connor TG (2005) Influence of land use on plant community composition and diversity in Highland Sourveld grassland in the southern Drakensberg, South Africa. J Appl Ecol 42:975–988
59. O’Connor TG, Kuyler P (2009) Impact of land use on the biodiversity integrity of the moist sub-biome of the grassland biome, South Africa. J Environ Manage 90:384–395
60. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37:637–669
61. Partridge TC (1997) Evolution of landscapes. In: Cowling RM, Richardson DM, Pierce SM (eds) Vegetation of Southern Africa. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 5–20
62. Pausas JG, Austin MP (2001) Patterns of plant species richness in relation to different environments: an appraisal. J Veg Sci 12:153–166
63. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2005) Long-distance plant dispersal and habitat fragmentation: identifying conservation targets for spatial landscape planning under climate change. Biol Conserv 123:389–401
64. Pressey R, Watts ME, Barrett TW, Ridges ML (2008) The C-Plan conservation planning system: origins, applications, and possible futures. In: Moilanen A, Wilson KA, Possingham HP (eds) Spatial Conservation Prioritization: Quantitative methods and computational tools. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 211–234
65. Pressey RL (2004) Conservation planning and biodiversity: assembling the best data for the job. Conserv Biol 18:1677–1681
66. Pressey RL, Watts M, Ridges M, Barrett T (2005) C-Plan conservation planning software. User Manual. NSW Department of Environment and Conservation
67. Sala OE, Chapin III FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770–1774
68. Saura S, Pascual-Hortal L (2007) A new habitat availability index to integrate connectivity in landscape conservation planning: comparison with existing indices and application to a case study. Landscape Urban Plan 83(2–3):91–103
69. Schaffers AP, Raemakers IP, Sýkora KV, ter Braak CJF (2008) Arthropod assemblages are best predicted by plant species composition. Ecology 89:782–794
70. Scholes RJ, Biggs R (2005) A biodiversity intactness index. Nature 434:45–49
71. Scott-Shaw CR (1999) Rare and threatened plants of KwaZulu-Natal and Neighbouring regions. KwaZulu-Natal Nature Conservation Service, Pietermaritzburg
72. Simberloff D, Farr JA, Mehlman DW (1992) Movement corridors: conservation bargains or poor investments? Conserv Biol 6:493–504
73. South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) (2015) Red list of South African plants version 2015.1. http://redlist.sanbi.org Accessed 14 Jan 2016
74. Statistics South Africa (2015) Mid-year population estimates 2015. Statistical release P0302. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa. Available from www.statssa.gov.za
75. Tikka PM, Koski PS, Kivelä RA, Kuitunen MT (2000) Can grassland plant communities be preserved on road and railway verges? Appl Veg Sci 3:25–32
76. Williams P, Hannah L, Andelman S, Midgley G, Araújo M, Hughes G, Manne L, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conserv Biol 19:1063–1074. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00080.x
77. With KA, Crist TO (1995) Critical thresholds in species’ responses to landscape structure. Ecology 76:2446–2459
78. Worboys GL, Ament R, Day JC, Locke H, McClure M, Tabor G, Woodley S (2015) Consultation draft, Guidelines for Connectivity Conservation: Part One, Definition: Connectivity Conservation Area, IUCN, 28 Rue Mauverney, Gland, Switzerland
79. Zeller KA, McGarigal K, Whiteley AR (2012) Estimating landscape resistance to movement: a review. Landscape Ecol 27:777–797