Spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends in skew surges globally

Frontiers in Marine Science

Volumn 3, Issue MAR, 2016, Pages

  Mawdsley, Robert J ^a   Haigh, Ivan D ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Extreme sea level; Regional climate; Skew surge; Storm surge; Tide surge interaction

Indexed keywords

EID: 85008642040     PISSN: None     EISSN: 22967745     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2016.00029     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Abeysirigunawardena, D. S., and Walker, I. J. (2008). Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern British Columbia. Atmosp. Ocean 46, 277-296. doi: 10.3137/ao.460301
2. Antony, C., and Unnikrishnan, A. S. (2013). Observed characteristics of tide-surge interaction along the east coast of India and the head of Bay of Bengal. Estuarine Coast. Shelf Sci. 131, 6-11. doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2013.08.004
3. Araújo, I. B., and Pugh, D. T. (2008). Sea levels at Newlyn 1915-2005: analysis of trends for future flooding risks. J. Coastal Res. 24, 203-212. doi: 10.2112/06-0785.1
4. Batstone, C., Lawless, M., Tawn, J., Horsburgh, K., Blackman, D., McMillan, A., et al. (2013). A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines. Ocean Eng. 71, 28-39. doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.02.003
5. Bell, G. D., and Chelliah, M. (2006). Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Clim. 19, 590-612. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3659.1
6. Bernier, N., and Thompson, K. (2007). Tide-surge interaction off the east coast of Canada and northeastern United States. J. Geophys. Res. 112, C06008. doi: 10.1029/2006jc003793
7. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G. C. (1994). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd Edn. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall
8. Bromirski, P. D., Flick, R. E., and Cayan, D. R. (2003). Storminess variability along the California Coast: 1858-2000. J. Clim. 16, 982-993. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0982:SVATCC>2.0.CO;2
9. Calafat, F. M., Chambers, D. P., and Tsimplis, M. N. (2013). Inter-annual to decadal sea-level variability in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas: the role of atmospheric forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 1287-1301. doi: 10.1002/jgrc.20106
10. Cayan, D. R., Bromirski, P. D., Hayhoe, K., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M. D., and Flick, R. E. (2008). Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast. Clim. Change 87, S57-S73. doi: 10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7
11. Church, J. A., Clark, P. U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J. M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., et al. (2013). "Sea level change," in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley (Cambridge, UK; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press), 1137-1216
12. Cleveland, W. S., and Devlin, S. J. (1988). Locally weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83, 596-610. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478639
13. Dangendorf, S., Calafat, F. M., Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., and Jensen, J. (2014). Mean sea level variability in the North Sea: processes and implications. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 6820-6841. doi: 10.1002/2014jc009901
14. Dixon, M. J., and Tawn, J. A. (1994). Extreme Sea-Levels at the UK A-Class Sites: Site-by-Site Analyses. Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Internal Document, No. 65, 229
15. Emanuel, K. A., Sundararajan, R., and Williams, J. (2008). Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 346-367. doi: 10.1175/bams-89-3-347
16. Ezer, T., and Atkinson, L. P. (2014). Accelerated flooding along the U.S. East Coast: on the impact of sea-level rise, tides, storms, the Gulf Stream, and the North Atlantic Oscillations. Earth Fut. 2, 362-382. doi: 10.1002/2014EF000252
17. Feng, X., and Tsimplis, M. N. (2014). Sea level extremes at the coasts of China. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 1593-1608. doi: 10.1002/2013jc009607
18. Grinsted, A., Moore, J. C., and Jevrejeva, S. (2012). Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109, 19601-19605. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1209542109
19. Haigh, I., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N. (2009a). Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context. Cont. Shelf Res. 29, 2083-2098. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2009.07.013
20. Haigh, I., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N. (2009b). Twentieth-Century changes in extreme still sea levels in the English channel. Coast. Eng. 2008. 1-5, 1199-1209. doi: 10.1142/9789814277426_0100
21. Haigh, I., Nicholls, R., and Wells, N. (2010). Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900-2006. Cont. Shelf Res. 30, 1042-1055. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2010.02.002
22. Haigh, I., Wijeratne, E. M. S., MacPherson, L., Pattiaratchi, C., Mason, M., Crompton, R., et al. (2014). Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level. Clim. Dynam. 42, 121-138. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1652-1
23. Haigh, I. D., Wadey, M. P., Gallop, S. L., Loehr, H., Nicholls, R. J., Horsburgh, K., et al. (2015). A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014. [Data Descriptor]. Sci. Data 2, 150021. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2015.21
24. Hartmann, D. L., Klein Tank, A., and Rusticucci, M. (2013). "Observations: ocean," in Climate Chanage 2013: The Physical Scientific Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report, eds J. Hurrell, J. Marengo, F. Tangang, and P. Viterbo (Cambridge, UK; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press), 159-254
25. Horsburgh, K. J., and Wilson, C. (2007). Tide-surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 112, C08003. doi: 10.1029/2006jc004033
26. Hunter, J. (2012). A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise. Clim. Change 113, 239-252. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0332-1
27. Hunter, J. R., Church, J. A., White, N. J., and Zhang, X. (2013). Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Eng. 71, 17-27. doi: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2012.12.041
28. Idier, D., Dumas, F., and Muller, H. (2012). Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 3709-3718. doi: 10.5194/nhess-12-3709-2012
29. Jay, D. A. (2009). Evolution of tidal amplitudes in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L04603. doi: 10.1029/2008gl036185
30. Kossin, J. P., Knapp, K. R., Vimont, D. J., Murnane, R. J., and Harper, B. A. (2007). A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:L04815. doi: 10.1029/2006gl028836
31. Lionello, P., Mufato, R., and Tomasin, A. (2005). Sensitivity of free and forced oscillations of the Adriatic Sea to sea level rise. Clim. Res. 29, 23-39. doi: 10.3354/cr029023
32. Livezey, R. E., and Chen, W. Y. (1983). Statistical field significance and its determination by monte carlo techniques. Mon. Weather Rev. 111, 46-59. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0046:sfsaid>2.0.co;2
33. Marcos, M., Calafat, F. M., Berihuete, á., and Dangendorf, S. (2015). Long-term variations in global sea level extremes. J. Geophys. Res. 120, 8115-8134. doi: 10.1002/2015jc011173
34. Marcos, M., Tsimplis, M. N., and Shaw, A. G. P. (2009). Sea level extremes in southern Europe. J. Geophys. Res. 114:C01007. doi: 10.1029/2008JC004912
35. Mawdsley, R. J., Haigh, I. D., and Wells, N. C. (2015). Global secular changes in different tidal high water, low water and range levels. Earth Fut. 3, 66-81. doi: 10.1002/2014EF000282
36. Menéndez, M., and Woodworth, P. L. (2010). Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set. J. Geophys. Res. 115, C10011. doi: 10.1029/2009JC005997
37. Müdersbach, C., Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., and Jensen, J. (2013). Trends in high sea levels of German North Sea gauges compared to regional mean sea level changes. Cont. Shelf Res. 65, 111-120. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2013.06.016
38. Olbert, A. I., Nash, S., Cunnane, C., and Hartnett, M. (2013). Tide-surge interactions and their effects on total sea levels in Irish coastal waters. [journal article]. Ocean Dynam. 63, 599-614. doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0618-0
39. Pelling, H. E., Mattias Green, J. A., and Ward, S. L. (2013). Modelling tides and sea-level rise: to flood or not to flood. Ocean Modell. 63, 21-29. doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.12.004
40. Pickering, M. D., Wells, N. C., Horsburgh, K. J., and Green, J. A. M. (2012). The impact of future sea-level rise on the European Shelf tides. Cont. Shelf Res. 35, 1-15. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2011.11.011
41. Pugh, D., and Woodworth, P. (2014). Sea-level Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-level Changes: Cambridge University Press
42. Raicich, F. (2003). Recent evolution of sea-level extremes at Trieste (Northern Adriatic). Cont. Shelf Res. 23, 225-235. doi: 10.1016/S0278-4343(02)00224-8
43. Ray, R. D. (2009). Secular changes in the solar semidiurnal tide of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19601. doi: 10.1029/2009gl040217
44. Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., et al. (2012). "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment," in Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), eds C. B. Field, V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, et al. (Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press), 109-230
45. Shennan, I., and Woodworth, P. L. (1992). A comparison of late Holocene and twentieth-century sea-level trends from the UK and North Sea region. Geophys. J. Intern. 109, 96-105. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00081.x
46. Talke, S. A., Orton, P., and Jay, D. A. (2014). Increasing storm tides in New York Harbor, 1844-2013. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3149-3155. doi: 10.1002/2014GL059574
47. Thompson, P. R., and Mitchum, G. T. (2014). Coherent sea level variability on the North Atlantic western boundary. J. Geophys. Res. 119, 5676-5689. doi: 10.1002/2014jc009999
48. Thompson, P. R., Mitchum, G. T., Vonesch, C., and Li, J. (2013). Variability of Winter Storminess in the Eastern United States during the Twentieth Century from Tide Gauges. J. Clim. 26, 9713-9726. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00561.1
49. Torres, R. R., and Tsimplis, M. N. (2013). Sea-level trends and interannual variability in the Caribbean Sea. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 2934-2947. doi: 10.1002/jgrc.20229
50. Trenberth, K. E., Jones, P. D., Ambenje, P., Bojariu, R., Easterling, D., Klein Tank, A., et al. (2007). "Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change," in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press), 235-336
51. Ullmann, A., Pirazzoli, P. A., and Tomasin, A. (2007). Sea surges in Camargue: trends over the 20th century. Cont. Shelf Res. 27, 922-934. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2006.12.001
52. Valle-Levinson, A., Olabarrieta, M., and Valle, A. (2013). Semidiurnal perturbations to the surge of Hurricane Sandy. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2211-2217. doi: 10.1002/grl.50461
53. Vecchi, G. A., and Soden, B. J. (2007). Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34:L08702. doi: 10.1029/2006gl028905
54. von Storch, H., and Woth, K. (2008). Storm surges: perspectives and options. Sustainab. Sci. 3, 33-43. doi: 10.1007/s11625-008-0044-2
55. Wahl, T., and Chambers, D. P. (2015). Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records. J. Geophys. Res. 120, 1527-1544. doi: 10.1002/2014jc010443
56. Wahl, T., and Chambers, D. P. (2016). Climate controls multidecadal variability in U. S. extreme sea level records. J. Geophys. Res. 121. doi: 10.1002/2015JC011057
57. Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Woodworth, P. L., Albrecht, F., Dillingh, D., Jensen, J., et al. (2013). Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present. Earth Sci. Rev. 124, 51-67. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.05.003
58. Wolf, J. (1981). "Surge-tide interaction in the North Sea and River Thames," in Floods Due to High Winds and Tides, ed D. H. Peregrine (New York, NY: Elseiver), 75-94
59. Wong, P. P., Losada, I. J., Gattuso, J. P., Hinkel, J., Khattabi, A., McInnes, K. L., et al. (2014). "Coastal systems and low-lying areas," in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, eds C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, et al. (Cambridge; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press), 361-409
60. Woodworth, P. L. (2010). A survey of recent changes in the main components of the ocean tide. Cont. Shelf Res. 30, 1680-1691. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2010.07.002
61. Woodworth, P. L., and Blackman, D. L. (2004). Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. J. Clim. 17, 1190-1197. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1190:EFSCIE>2.0.CO;2
62. Woodworth, P. L., and Menéndez, M. (2015). Changes in the mesoscale variability and in extreme sea levels over two decades as observed by satellite altimetry. J. Geophys. Res. 120, 64-77. doi: 10.1002/2014jc010363
63. Woodworth, P. L., Teferle, F. N., Bingley, R. M., Shennan, I., and Williams, S. D. P. (2009). Trends in UK mean sea level revisited. Geophys. J. Intern. 176, 19-30. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03942.x
64. Woodworth, P. L., Tsimplis, M. N., Flather, R. A., and Shennan, I. (1999). A review of the trends observed in British Isles mean sea level data measured by tide gauges. Geophys. J. Intern. 136, 651-670. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246x.1999.00751.x
65. Zhang, K. Q., Douglas, B. C., and Leatherman, S. P. (2000). Twentieth-century storm activity along the US east coast. J. Clim. 13, 1748-1761. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1748:TCSAAT>2.0.CO;2