Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: Estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

Scientific Reports

Volumn 7, Issue , 2017, Pages

  Olive, Marie Marie ^a,b   Grosbois, Vladimir ^a   Tran, Annelise ^a   Nomenjanahary, Lalaina Arivony ^a   Rakotoarinoro, Mihaja ^b   Andriamandimby, Soa Fy ^b   Rogier, Christophe ^b,c,d   Heraud, Jean Michel ^b   Chevalier, Veronique ^a  

^a CIRAD   (France)

^b INSTITUT PASTEUR DE MADAGASCAR   (Madagascar)

^c French Army Institute of Biomedical Research (IRBA)   (France)

^d AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANIMAL; BAYES THEOREM; BOVINE; EPIDEMIC; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; IMMUNOLOGY; MADAGASCAR; MOSQUITO; MOSQUITO VECTOR; PATHOGENICITY; PATHOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; RIFT VALLEY FEVER; RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS; SEROEPIDEMIOLOGY; TRANSMISSION; VIROLOGY;

ANIMALS; BAYES THEOREM; CATTLE; CULICIDAE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; MADAGASCAR; MOSQUITO VECTORS; RIFT VALLEY FEVER; RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS; SEROEPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES;

EID: 85008395332     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20452322     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/srep39870     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Hens, N. et al. Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data. Epidemiol. Infect. 138, 802-812, doi: 10.1017/S0950268809990781 (2010).
2. Reiner, R. C. et al. Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, E2694-E2702, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1314933111 (2014).
3. Wallinga, J., Teunis, P. & Kretzschmar, M. Reconstruction of measles dynamics in a vaccinated population. Vaccine 21, 2643-2650, doi: 10.1016/S0264-410X(03)00051-3 (2003).
4. Heisey, D. M., Joly, D. O. & Messier, F. The fitting of general force-of-infection models to wildlife disease prevalence data. Ecology 87, 2356-2365 (2006).
5. Mueller, I. et al. Force of infection is key to understanding the epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Papua New Guinean children. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 10030-10035, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1200841109 (2012).
6. Coelho, F. C. & Carvalho, L. M. de. Estimating the Attack Ratio of Dengue Epidemics under Time-varying Force of Infection using Aggregated Notification Data. Sci. Rep. 5, 18455, doi: 10.1038/srep18455 (2015).
7. Imai, N., Dorigatti, I., Cauchemez, S. & Ferguson, N. M. Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Sero-Prevalence Surveys in Multiple Countries. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 9, e0003719, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003719 (2015).
8. Lewis, F. I., Otero-Abad, B., Hegglin, D., Deplazes, P. & Torgerson, P. R. Dynamics of the Force of Infection: Insights from Echinococcus multilocularis Infection in Foxes. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 8, e2731, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002731 (2014).
9. Salje, H. et al. Reconstruction of 60 Years of Chikungunya Epidemiology in the Philippines Demonstrates Episodic and Focal Transmission. J. Infect. Dis. 213, 604-610, doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiv470 (2016).
10. Tam, C. C. et al. Estimates of Dengue Force of Infection in Children in Colombo, Sri Lanka. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 7, e2259, doi: http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002259 (2013).
11. Clerc, Y. & Coulanges, P. Rapport du Laboratoire des arbovirus 1980. Arch. Inst. Pasteur Madagascar 49, 65-69 (1981).
12. Andriamandimby, S. F. et al. Rift Valley fever during rainy seasons, Madagascar, 2008 and 2009. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 16, 963-970, doi: 10.3201/eid1606.091266 (2010).
13. Cornet, A. Essai de cartographie bioclimatique à Madagascar (Notice Explicative 55) 28p Available at http://horizon.documentation. ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins-textes/pleins-textes-5/notexp/06946.pdf (Accessed 17 July 2015) (1974).
14. Morvan, J., Rollin, P. E., Laventure, S., Rakotoarivony, I. & Roux, J. Rift Valley fever epizootic in the central highlands of Madagascar. Res. Virol. 143, 407-415, doi: 10.1016/S0923-2516(06)80134-2 (1992).
15. Morvan, J., Saluzzo, J. F., Fontenille, D., Rollin, P. E. & Coulanges, P. Rift Valley fever on the east coast of Madagascar. Res. Virol. 142, 475-482, doi: 10.1016/0923-2516(91)90070-J (1991).
16. Zeller, H., Rakotoharinadrasana, H. T. & Rakoto-Andrianarivelo, M. [Rift Valley fever in Madagascar: infection risks for the abattoir staff in Antananarivo]. Rev. Délevage Médecine Vét. Pays Trop. 51, 17-20 (1998).
17. Chevalier, V. et al. An unexpected recurrent transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in cattle in a temperate and mountainous area of Madagascar. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 5, e1423, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001423 (2011).
18. Gray, G. C. et al. Seroepidemiological Study of Interepidemic Rift Valley Fever Virus Infection Among Persons with Intense Ruminant Exposure in Madagascar and Kenya. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 93, 1364-1370, doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0383 (2015).
19. Nicolas, G. et al. A 3-year serological and virological cattle follow-up in Madagascar highlands suggests a non-classical transmission route of Rift Valley fever virus. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 90, 265-266, doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-0538 (2014).
20. Jeanmaire, E. M. et al. Prevalence of Rift Valley fever infection in ruminants in Madagascar after the 2008 outbreak. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 11, 395-402, doi: 10.1089/vbz.2009.0249 (2011).
21. Olive, M.-M. et al. Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 10, e0004827, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004827 (2016).
22. Paweska, J. T. et al. IgG-sandwich and IgM-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for the detection of antibody to Rift Valley fever virus in domestic ruminants. J. Virol. Methods 113, 103-112, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004827 (2003).
23. Kortekaas, J. et al. European ring trial to evaluate ELISAs for the diagnosis of infection with Rift Valley fever virus. J. Virol. Methods 187, 177-181, doi: 10.1016/j.jviromet.2012.09.016 (2013).
24. Pepin, M., Bouloy, M., Bird, B. H., Kemp, A. & Paweska, J. Rift Valley fever virus(Bunyaviridae: Phlebovirus): an update on pathogenesis, molecular epidemiology, vectors, diagnostics and prevention. Vet. Res. 41, 61, doi: 10.1051/vetres/2010033 (2010).
25. Ribot, J.-J. Les comportements de l' éleveur et du zébu à Madagascar l'adaptation du role et des actions du service de l'élevage à ces comportements. Terre Malgache Tany Malagasy 21, 125-136 (1982).
26. Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P. & van der Linde, A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 64, 583-639, doi: 10.1111/1467-9868.00353 (2002).
27. Basáñez, M.-G., Marshall, C., Carabin, H., Gyorkos, T. & Joseph, L. Bayesian statistics for parasitologists. Trends Parasitol. 20, 85-91, doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2003.11.008 (2004).
28. Nepomichene, T. J. J. N., Elissa, N., Cardinale, E. & Boyer, S. Species Diversity, Abundance, and Host Preferences of Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Two Different Ecotypes of Madagascar With Recent RVFV Transmission. J. Med. Entomol. 52, 962-969, doi: 10.1093/jme/tjv120 (2015).
29. Tantely, L. M., Boyer, S. & Fontenille, D. A review of mosquitoes associated with Rift Valley fever virus in Madagascar. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 92, 722-729, doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0421 (2015).
30. Tantely, M. L. et al. Biology of mosquitoes that are potential vectors of Rift Valley Fever virus in different biotopes of the central highlands of Madagascar. J. Med. Entomol. 50, 603-610, doi: 10.1603/ME12069 (2013).
31. Fremigacci, J. Madagascar ou l'éternel retour de la crise. Afr. Contemp. 251, 125-142, doi: 10.3917/afco.251.0125 (2014).
32. Mattern, C. et al. Tazomoka Is Not a Problem'. Local Perspectives on Malaria, Fever Case Management and Bed Net Use in Madagascar. Plos One 11, e0151068, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151068 (2016).
33. Nicolas, G., Durand, B., Duboz, R., Rakotondravao, R. & Chevalier, V. Description and analysis of the cattle trade network in the Madagascar highlands: potential role in the diffusion of Rift Valley fever virus. Acta Trop. 126, 19-27, doi: 10.1016/j. actatropica.2012.12.013 (2013).
34. Rakoto, I. La problématique de 1'application du droit en matière de vol de boeufs à Madagascar (1787-1960). TALOHA (2011) Available at http://www.taloha.info/document.php? id= 1153 (Accessed 11 May 2015).
35. Chevalier, V. Relevance of Rift Valley fever to public health in the European Union. Clin. Microbiol. Infect. 19, 705-708, doi: 10.1111/1469-0691.12163 (2013).
36. Olive, M.-M., Goodman, S. M. & Reynes, J.-M. The role of wild mammals in the maintenance of Rift Valley fever virus. J. Wildl. Dis. 48, 241-266, doi: 10.7589/0090-3558-48.2.241 (2012).
37. Olive, M.-M. et al. Absence of Rift Valley fever virus in wild small mammals, Madagascar. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 19, 1025-1027, doi: 10.3201/eid1906.121074 (2013).
38. Linthicum, K. J., Davies, F. G., Kairo, A. & Bailey, C. L. Rift Valley fever virus (family Bunyaviridae, genus Phlebovirus). Isolations from Diptera collected during an inter-epizootic period in Kenya. J. Hyg. (Lond.) 95, 197-209 (1985).
39. Tantely, M. L., Le Goff, G., Boyer, S. & Fontenille, D. An updated checklist of mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae) from Madagascar. Parasite Paris Fr. 23, 20, doi: 10.1051/parasite/2016018 (2016).
40. Nicolas, G., Chevalier, V., Tantely, L. M., Fontenille, D. & Durand, B. A spatially explicit metapopulation model and cattle trade analysis suggests key determinants for the recurrent circulation of rift valley Fever virus in a pilot area of Madagascar highlands. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 8, e3346, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003346 (2014).
41. Anyamba, A. et al. Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 83, 43-51, doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289 (2010).
42. Anyamba, A. et al. Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 6, e1465, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001465 (2012).
43. Roger, M. et al. Evidence for Circulation of the Rift Valley Fever Virus among Livestock in the Union of Comoros. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 8, e3045, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003045 (2014).
44. Métras, R. et al. The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 10, e0004783, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783 (2016).
45. Chevalier, V. et al. Rift Valley fever in small ruminants, Senegal, 2003. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1693-1700, doi: 10.3201/eid1111.050193 (2005).
46. Zeller, H. G., Fontenille, D., Traore-Lamizana, M., Thiongane, Y. & Digoutte, J. P. Enzootic activity of Rift Valley fever virus in Senegal. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 56, 265-272 (1997).
47. Swanepoel, R. & Coetzer, J. In Infectious diseases of livestock 1037-70 (Coetzer, J. A. W., Thomson, G. R., Tustin, R. C. editors, 2004).