Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 111, Issue 26, 2014, Pages

  Reiner Jr , Robert C ^a,b   Stoddard, Steven T ^a,b   Forshey, Brett M ^c   King, Aaron A ^a,d   Ellis, Alicia M ^a,e   Lloyd, Alun L ^a,f   Long, Kanya C ^a,g   Rocha, Claudio ^c   Vilcarromero, Stalin ^c   Astete, Helvio ^c   Bazan, Isabel ^c   Lenhart, Audrey ^h,i   Vazquez Prokopec, Gonzalo M ^a,j   Paz Soldan, Valerie A ^k   McCall, Philip J ^h   Kitron, Uriel ^a,j   Elder, John P ^l   Halsey, Eric S ^c   Morrison, Amy C ^b,c   Kochel, Tadeusz J ^c   Scott, Thomas W ^a,b   more..

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c California   (Peru)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT   (United States)

^f NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^g ANDREWS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^h LIVERPOOL SCHOOL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

ⁱ CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (United States)

^j EMORY UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^k TULANE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^l SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Arthropod borne virus; Disease ecology; Emerging infections

Indexed keywords

NEUTRALIZING ANTIBODY;

ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; BLOOD SAMPLING; DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS 1; DENGUE VIRUS 2; DENGUE VIRUS 3; DENGUE VIRUS 4; HUMAN; IMMUNE RESPONSE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; PERU; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROPHYLAXIS; SEASONAL VARIATION; SEROCONVERSION; SEROTYPE; TIME; TIME VARYING; VACCINATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION;

ARTHROPOD-BORNE VIRUS; DISEASE ECOLOGY; EMERGING INFECTIONS;

DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS; HUMANS; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PERU; PUBLIC HEALTH SURVEILLANCE; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84903716316     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1314933111     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Muench H (1934) Derivation of rates from summation data by the catalytic curve. J Am Stat Assoc 29(185):25-38.
2. Grenfell BT, Anderson RM (1985) The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. J Hyg (Lond) 95(2):419-436.
3. Hens N, et al. (2010) Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data. Epidemiol Infect 138(6):802-812.
4. Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM (1999) Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: Insights from age-stratified sero-prevalence surveys. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 354(1384):757-768.
5. Anderson R, May R (1992) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford) .
6. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM (2004) Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101(16):6146-6151.
7. Brady OJ, et al. (2012) Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6(8):e1760.
8. Simmons CP, Farrar JJ, Nguyen W, Wills B (2012) Dengue. N Engl J Med 366(15): 1423-1432.
9. Sabchareon A, et al. (2012) Protective efficacy of the recombinant, live-attenuated, CYD tetravalent dengue vaccine in Thai schoolchildren: A randomised, controlled phase 2b trial. Lancet 380(9853):1559-1567.
10. Reiner RC, Jr., et al. (2013) A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquitoborne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. J R Soc Interface 10(81):20120921.
11. Morrison AC, et al. (2010) Epidemiology of dengue virus in Iquitos, Peru 1999 to 2005: Interepidemic and epidemic patterns of transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4(5):e670.
12. Nisalak A, et al. (2003) Serotype-specific dengue virus circulation and dengue disease in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68(2):191-202.
13. Rodriguez-Barraquer I, et al. (2011) From re-emergence to hyperendemicity: The natural history of the dengue epidemic in Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5(1):e935.
14. Balmaseda A, et al. (2010) Trends in patterns of dengue transmission over 4 years in a pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. J Infect Dis 201(1):5-14.
15. King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454(7206):877-880.
16. Endy TP, et al. (2002) Epidemiology of inapparent and symptomatic acute dengue virus infection: A prospective study of primary school children in Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. Am J Epidemiol 156(1):40-51.
17. Burke DS, Nisalak A, Johnson DE, Scott RM (1988) A prospective study of dengue infections in Bangkok. Am J Trop Med Hyg 38(1):172-180.
18. Eamchan P, Nisalak A, Foy HM, Chareonsook OA (1989) Epidemiology and control of dengue virus infections in Thai villages in 1987. Am J Trop Med Hyg 41(1):95-101.
19. Cummings DA, et al. (2009) The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. PLoS Med 6(9):e1000139.
20. Thai KT, et al. (2011) Age-specificity of clinical dengue during primary and secondary infections. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5(6):e1180.
21. Cuong HQ, et al. (2011) Quantifying the emergence of dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998-2009. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 5(9):e1322.
22. Egger JR, et al. (2008) Reconstructing historical changes in the force of infection of dengue fever in Singapore: Implications for surveillance and control. Bull World Health Organ 86(3):187-196.
23. Rothman A (2010) Dengue Virus (Springer, Berlin) .
24. Scott T, Morrison A (2010) Longitudinal field studies will guide a paradigm shift in dengue prevention. Vector Biology, Ecology and Control, ed Atkinson PW (Springer, Berlin) , pp 139-161.
25. Phillips I, Need J, Escamilla J, Colán E, Sánchez S, Rodríguez M, Vásquez L, Seminario J, Betz T, da Rosa AT (1992) First documented outbreak of dengue in the Peruvian amazon region. Bull Pan Am Health Organ 26(3):201-207.
26. Watts DM, et al. (1999) Failure of secondary infection with American genotype dengue 2 to cause dengue haemorrhagic fever. Lancet 354(9188):1431-1434.
27. Forshey BM, et al. (2009) Dengue virus serotype 4, northeastern Peru, 2008. Emerg Infect Dis 15(11):1815-1818.
28. Stoddard ST, et al. (2013) House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(3):994-999.
29. Olkowski S, et al. (2013) Reduced risk of disease during postsecondary dengue virus infections. J Infect Dis 208(6):1026-1033.
30. Forshey BM, et al.; NMRCD Febrile Surveillance Working Group (2010) Arboviral etiologies of acute febrile illnesses in Western South America, 2000-2007. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4(8):e787.
31. Meeker WQ, Escobar LA (1998) Statistical Methods for Reliability Data (Wiley, New York) .
32. Ziv S, Marc A, Geert M, Philippe B, Pierre Van D (2003) Modelling forces of infection by using monotone local polynomials. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 52(4):469-485.
33. Ramsay J (2005) Functional Data Analysis, Springer Series in Statistics (Springer, New York) .
34. Tierney L (1994) Markov chains for exploring posterior distributions. Ann Stat 22(4): 1701-1728.
35. Roberts GO, Rosenthal JS (2009) Examples of adaptive MCMC. J Comput Graph Statist 18(2):349-367.
36. Gelman A, Rubin D (1992) Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Stat Sci 7(4):457-472.
37. Brooks SP, Gelman A (1998) General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. J Comput Graph Statist 7(4):434-455.
38. R Development Core Team (2012) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna) . Available at www.R-project.org. Accessed May 16, 2013.
39. Ramsay, JO, Wickham H, Graves S, Hooker G. (2012) fda: Functional data analysis. R package version 2.2.8. Available at http://CRAN.R-project.org/ package=fda. Accessed May 16, 2013.
40. Plummer M, Best N, Cowles K, Vines K (2006) CODA: Convergence diagnosis and output analysis for MCMC. R package version 2.2.8. Available at http://CRAN.R-project. org/doc/Rnews. Accessed May 16, 2013.
41. Aldstadt J, et al. (2012) Space-time analysis of hospitalised dengue patients in rural Thailand reveals important temporal intervals in the pattern of dengue virus transmission. Trop Med Int Health 17(9):1076-1085.
42. Nisalak A, et al. (2003) Serotype-specific dengue virus circulation and dengue disease in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. Am J Trop Med Hyg 68(2):191.
43. Nguyen MN, et al. (2013) Host and viral features of human dengue cases shape the population of infected and infectious Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 110(22):9072-9077.
44. Johansson MA, Hombach J, Cummings DA (2011) Models of the impact of dengue vaccines: A review of current research and potential approaches. Vaccine 29(35): 5860-5868.
45. Nagao Y, Koelle K (2008) Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(6):2238-2243.
46. Wallinga J, Teunis P (2004) Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol 160(6):509-516.
47. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (2004) Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432(7019):904-906.
48. Fine PE (1993) Herd immunity: History, theory, practice. Epidemiol Rev 15(2):265-302.
49. Adams B, et al. (2006) Cross-protective immunity can account for the alternating epidemic pattern of dengue virus serotypes circulating in Bangkok. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(38):14234-14239.
50. Vazquez-Prokopec GM, et al. (2013) Using GPS technology to quantify human mobility, dynamic contacts and infectious disease dynamics in a resource-poor urban environment. PLoS ONE 8(4):e58802.
51. Perkins TA, Scott TW, Le Menach A, Smith DL (2013) Heterogeneity, mixing, and the spatial scales of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. PLOS Comput Biol 9(12): e1003327.
52. Liebman KA, et al. (2012) Spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission across interepidemic and epidemic periods in Iquitos, Peru (1999-2003) . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6(2):e1472.
53. Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, GetzWM(2005) Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438(7066):355-359.
54. Thomas SJ, et al. (2009) Dengue plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) in primary and secondary dengue virus infections: How alterations in assay conditions impact performance. Am J Trop Med Hyg 81(5):825-833.
55. Rainwater-Lovett K, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DA, Lessler J (2012) Variation in dengue virus plaque reduction neutralization testing: Systematic review and pooled analysis. BMC Infect Dis 12:233.
56. OhAinle M, et al. (2011) Dynamics of dengue disease severity determined by the interplay between viral genetics and serotype-specific immunity. Sci Transl Med 3:114ra128.
57. Sabin AB (1952) Research on dengue during World War II. Am J Trop Med Hyg 1(1): 30-50.