From foresight to impact? The 2030 Future of Work scenarios

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volumn 124, Issue , 2017, Pages 203-213

  Rhisiart, Martin ^a   Störmer, Eckhard ^b   Daheim, Cornelia ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GLAMORGAN   (United Kingdom)

^b Z_punkt GmbH   (Germany)

^c Future Impacts Consulting   (Germany)

Author keywords

Engagement; Foresight; Impact; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

INNOVATION; TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

CO-PRODUCTION; EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION; ENGAGEMENT; FORESIGHT; FUTURE OF WORKS; IMPACT; MULTICHANNEL COMMUNICATION; NOCV1; SCENARIOS;

PROFESSIONAL ASPECTS;

EMPLOYMENT; FUTURE PROSPECT; LABOR POLICY; MEDIA ROLE; PARTNERSHIP APPROACH; POLICY APPROACH; SKILLED LABOR; SOCIAL MEDIA;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 85007507422     PISSN: 00401625     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.020     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Ahlqvist, T., Rhisiart, M., Emerging pathways for critical futures research: changing contexts and impacts of social theory. Futures 71 (2015), 91–104.
2. Brown, S.L., Eisenhardt, K.M., The art of continuous change: linking complexity theory and time-paced evolution in relentlessly shifting organizations. Adm. Sci. Q., 1997, 1–34.
3. Brynjolfsson, E., McAfee, A., The second machine age. Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, 2014, WW Norton & Co., New York.
4. Calof, J., Smith, J., Critical success factors for government-led foresight. Sci. Public Policy 37:1 (2010), 31–40.
5. CITB, Construction 2030 and Beyond: The Future of Jobs and Skills in the UK Construction Sector. 2015, Construction Industry Training Board, London.
6. Cox, A., Swift, S., Rhisiart, M., Success Factors for Achieving Policy Impact in Foresight Studies. 2015, European Risk Observatory, European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (December 2015).
7. Cuhls, K., Lessons for Policy-making from Foresight in Non-European Countries. 2015, European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.
8. Da Costa, O., Warnke, P., Cagnin, C., Scapolo, F., The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process. Tech. Anal. Strat. Manag. 20:3 (2008), 369–387 (May).
9. Daim, T., Basoglu, N., Dursun, O., Saritas, O., Gerdsri, P., A comprehensive review of Turkish technology foresight project. Foresight 11:1 (2009), 21–42.
10. Eriksson, E.A., Weber, K.M., Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 75:4 (2008), 462–482.
11. ESRC (2009), Taking stock: a summary of ESRC's work to evaluate the impact of research on policy and practice, (February, available at:) www.esrc.ac.uk/impacts-and-findings/impact-assessment/developing-impact-evaluation.aspx.
12. Frey, C.B., Osborne, M., The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation. 2013, Oxford University.
13. Georghiou, L., The UK technology foresight programme. Futures 28:4 (1996), 359–377.
14. Georghiou, L., Keenan, M., Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rationale, process and impact. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 73:7 (2006), 761–777.
15. Georghiou, L., Keenan, M., Miles, I., Cameron, H., An Evaluation of the UK Foresight Programme: Final Report. 2006, University of Manchester.
16. Haegeman, K., Harper, J.C., Johnston, R., Introduction to a special section: impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making. Sci. Public Policy 37:1 (2010), 3–6.
17. Handy, C., The Future of Work: A Guide to a Changing Society. 1984, Basil Blackwell, Oxford.
18. Harper, J.C., Impact of technology foresight. Nesta Working Paper 13/16 November 2013, 2013.
19. Havas, A., Schartinger, D., Weber, M., The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives. Res. Eval. 19:2 (2010), 91–104 (June).
20. Hilbert, M., Miles, I., Othmer, J., Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter-governmental processes in developing countries: lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 76:7 (2009), 880–896.
21. Inayatullah, S., Reductionism or layered complexity? The futures of futures studies. Futures 34:3 (2002), 295–302.
22. Johnston, R., Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight. Foresight 14:1 (2012), 56–68.
23. Keller, J., Von der Gracht, H.A., The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes—results from a Delphi survey. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 85 (2014), 81–92.
24. Kingdon, J.W., Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies. 2002, Longman, New Jersey.
25. Kuosa, T., The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making. 2016, Routledge.
26. Lane, D., Maxfield, R., Strategy under complexity: fostering generative relationships. Long Range Plan. 29:2 (1996), 215–231.
27. Linstone, H.A., Three eras of technology foresight. Technovation 31:2 (2011), 69–76.
28. Meissner, D., Results and impact of national Foresight-studies. Futures 44:10 (2012), 905–913.
29. Miles, I., Dynamic foresight evaluation. Foresight 14:1 (2012), 69–81.
30. Millennium Project (2016) 2050 Global Work/Technology Scenarios (unpublished), Washington DC.
31. Miller, R., Futures literacy: a hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures 39:4 (2007), 341–362.
32. Miller, R., Recent developments in thinking about the future: an overview for policymakers. Neng, W.W., (eds.) Adaptive Governance for a Changing World, 2016, 187–199.
33. Miller, R., Poli, R., Anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of futures studies. Foresight, 12(3), 2010.
34. Owen, R., Macnaghten, P., Stilgoe, J., Responsible research and innovation: from science in society to science for society, with society. Sci. Public Policy 39:6 (2012), 751–760.
35. Perren, L., Sapsed, J., Innovation as politics: the rise and reshaping of innovation in UK parliamentary discourse 1960–2005. Res. Policy 42:10 (2013), 1815–1828.
36. Pieczka, M., Escobar, O., Dialogue and science: innovation in policy-making and the discourse of public engagement in the UK. Sci. Public Policy 40:1 (2012), 113–126.
37. Popper, R., Georghiou, L., Miles, I., Keenan, M., Evaluating Foresight: Fully-Fledged Evaluation of the Colombian Technology Foresight Programme (CTFP). 2010, Universidad del Valle, Cali.
38. Poteralska, B., Sacio-Szymańska, A., Evaluation of technology foresight projects. Eur. J. Futur. Res., 2, 2013, 26.
39. Raford, N., Online foresight platforms: evidence for their impact on scenario planning and strategic foresight. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 97 (2015), 65–76 (August 2015).
40. Rhisiart, M., Jones-Evans, D., The impact of foresight on entrepreneurship: the Wales 2010 case study. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 102 (2016), 112–119.
41. Ross, A., The Industries of the Future. How the Next 10 Years of Innovation Will Transform Our Lives at Work and Home. 2016, Simon & Schuster, London.
42. Sabatier, P.A., Jenkins-Smith, H.C., The advocacy coalition framework: an assessment. Theor. Policy Process, 118, 1999, 188.
43. Schoemaker, P.J., Strategy, complexity, and economic rent. Manag. Sci. 36:10 (1990), 1178–1192.
44. Science and Technology Committee, Government Horizon Scanning. 2014, The Stationery Office, HC 703, London.
45. Stacey, R.D., The science of complexity: an alternative perspective for strategic change processes. Strateg. Manag. J. 16:6 (1995), 477–495.
46. Stacey, R.D., Strategic Management and Organisational Dynamics: The Challenge of Complexity to Ways of Thinking About Organisations. 2007, Pearson Education.
47. Störmer, E., Patscha, C., Prendergast, J., Daheim, C., Rhisiart, M., Glover, P., Beck, H., The Future of Work: Jobs and Skills in 2030, Evidence Report 84. 2014, UK Commission for Employment and Skills.
48. Störmer, E., Patscha, C., Prendergast, J., Daheim, C., Rhisiart, M., Glover, P., Beck, H., Trends and Disruptions Report. 2014, UK Commission for Employment and Skills.
49. UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES), A guide to the UK Commission for Employment and Skills. Autumn, 2014 (2014).
50. UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES), Careers of the Future. 2014 (London, 10 December 2014).
51. UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES), Growth Through People: A Statement on Skills in the UK. 2014, UKCES, London (25 November 2014 www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-level-stem-skills-requirements-in-the-uk-labour-market).
52. UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES), High Level STEM Skills Requirements in the UK Labour Market. 2015, UKCES, London (10 July 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-level-stem-skills-requirements-in-the-uk-labour-market).
53. Van der Meulen, B., De Wilt, J., Rutten, H., Developing futures for agriculture in the Netherlands: a systematic exploration of the strategic value of foresight. J. Forecast. 22:2–3 (2003), 219–233.
54. van der Steen, M., Van der Duin, P., Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust, organisational learning and future oriented policy and strategy. Futures 44:5 (2012), 487–493.
55. Varum, C.A., Melo, C., Directions in scenario planning literature – a review of the past decades. Futures 42:4 (2010), 355–396.
56. Von Schomberg, Rene, A vision of responsible innovation. Owen, R., Heintz, M., Bessant, J, (eds.) Responsible Innovation, 2013, John Wiley, London.
57. Wilson, R., Beaven, R., May-Gillings, M., Hay, G., Stevens, J., Working Futures 2012–2022 Evidence Report 83. 2014, UK Commission for Employment and Skills (March 2014).
58. Zuboff, S., In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. 1988, Basic Books.