Global warming without global mean precipitation increase'

Science Advances

Volumn 2, Issue 6, 2016, Pages

  Salzmann, Marc ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEIPZIG   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AEROSOLS; BUDGET CONTROL; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GASES; WATER VAPOR;

AEROSOL COOLING; ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS; ENERGY BUDGETS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG); MEAN PRECIPITATION; SURFACE WARMING; WATER VAPOR CONCENTRATION;

CLIMATE MODELS;

RAIN;

ALGORITHM; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HUMAN; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ALGORITHMS; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL WARMING; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RAIN;

EID: 85007181582     PISSN: None     EISSN: 23752548     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1501572     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419, 224-232 (2002
2. I. M. Held, B. J. Soden, Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate 19, 5686-5699 (2006
3. V. O. John, R. P. Allan, B. J. Soden, How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming'. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L14702 (2009
4. G. Gu, R. F. Adler, Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010. J. Climate 28, 4431-4453 (2015
5. T. Mauritsen, B. Stevens, Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models. Nat. Geosci. 8, 346-351 (2015
6. J. F. B. Mitchell, T. C. Johns, On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols. J. Climate 10, 245-267 (1997
7. U. Lohmann, J. Feichter, Global indirect aerosol effects: A review. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 5, 715-737 (2005
8. G. Myhre, D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura, H. Zhang, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge and New York, 2013
9. G. Bala, P. B. Duffy, K. E. Taylor, Impact of geoengineering schemes on the global hydrological cycle. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 7664-7669 (2008
10. G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, L. Cao, G. G. Ban-Weiss, H.-J. Shin, Albedo enhancement of marine clouds to counteract global warming: Impacts on the hydrological cycle. Clim. Dynam. 37, 915-931 (2011
11. T. Andrews, P. M. Forster, O. Boucher, N. Bellouin, A. Jones, Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L14701, (2010
12. M. Previdi, Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation. Env. Res. Lett. 5, 025211 (2010
13. P. A. O'Gorman, R. P. Allan, M. P. Byrne, M. Previdi, Energetic constraints on precipitation under climate change. Surv. Geophys. 33, 585-608 (2012
14. P. Wu, N. Christidis, P. Stott, Anthropogenic impact on Earth's hydrological cycle. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 807-810 (2013
15. S. Bony, G. Bellon, D. Klocke, S. Sherwood, S. Fermepin, S. Denvil, Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat. Geosci. 6, 447-451 (2013
16. R. P. Allan, C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias, A. Bodas-Salcedo, Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations. Surv. Geophys. 35, 533-552 (2014
17. K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, G. A. Meehl, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012
18. I. M. Held, B. J. Soden, Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ 25, 441-475 (2000
19. S. Kinne, D. O'Donnel, P. Stier, S. Kloster, K. Zhang, H. Schmidt, S. Rast, M. Giorgetta, T. F. Eck, B. Stevens, Mac-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 5, 704-740 (2013
20. X. Zhang, F.W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert, N. P. Gillett, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, T. Nozawa, Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature 448, 461-465 (2007
21. A. Saha, S. Ghosh, A. S. Sahana, E. P. Rao, Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 7323-7330 (2014
22. L. Krishnamurthy, V. Krishnamurthy, Decadal scale oscillations and trend in the Indian monsoon rainfall. Clim. Dynam. 43, 319-331 (2014
23. M. Salzmann, R. Cherian, On the enhancement of the indian summer monsoon drying by Pacific multidecadal variability during the latter half of the twentieth century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 120, 9103-9118 (2015
24. M. A. Bollasina, Y. Ming, V. Ramaswamy, Anthropogenic aerosols and the weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Science 334, 502-505 (2011
25. M. Salzmann, H. Weser, R. Cherian, Robust response of Asian summer monsoon to anthropogenic aerosols in CMIP5 models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 119, 11321-11337 (2014
26. K. E. Trenberth, Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim. Res. 47, 123-138 (2011
27. J. Lehmann, D. Coumou, K. Frieler, Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming. Clim. Change 132, 501-515 (2015
28. J. G. Dwyer, M. Biasutti, A. H. Sobel, The effect of greenhouse gas-induced changes in SST on the annual cycle of zonal mean tropical precipitation. J. Climate 27, 4544-4565 (2014
29. Y. Ming, V. Ramaswamy, G. Persad, Two opposing effects of absorbing aerosols on global mean precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L13701 (2010
30. C. Wang, Impact of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols on clouds and precipitation: A review of recent progresses. Atmos. Res. 122, 237-249 (2013
31. M. M. Kvalevoåg, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, Hydrological sensitivity to greenhouse gases and aerosols in a global climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 1432-1438 (2013
32. J.-L. Dufresne, J. Quaas, O. Boucher, S. Denvil, L. Fairhead, Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21703 (2005
33. G. Myhre, O. Boucher, F.-M. Bréon, P. Forster, D. Shindell, Declining uncertainty in transient climate response as CO2 forcing dominates future climate change. Nat. Geosci. 8, 181-185 (2015
34. J. F. B. Mitchell, The seasonal response of a general circulation model to changes in CO2 and sea temperatures. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 109, 113-152 (1983
35. H. Levy II, L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V. Naik, V. Ramaswamy, The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 4521-4532 (2013
36. S. J. Smith, T. C. Bond, Two hundred fifty years of aerosols and climate: The end of the age of aerosols. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 14, 537-549 (2014
37. B. Huang, V. F. Banzon, E. Freeman, J. Lawrimore, W. Liu, T. C. Peterson, T. M. Smith, P.W. Thorne, S. D. Woodruff, H.-M. Zhang, Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4) Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons. J. Climate 28, 911-930 (2015
38. I. Harris, P. D. Jones, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, CRU TS3.22: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of high resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901-Dec. 2013), NCAS British Atmospheric Data Centre, 24 September 2014.
39. T. D. Mitchell, P. D. Jones, An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int. J. Climatology 25, 693-712 (2005
40. T. Wu, R. Yu, F. Zhang, Z. Wang, M. Dong, L. Wang, X. Jin, D. Chen, L. Li, The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: Description and its performance for the present-day climate. Clim. Dynam. 34, 123-147 (2010
41. V. K. Arora, J. F. Scinocca, G. J. Boer, J. R. Christian, K. L. Denman, G. M. Flato, V. V. Kharin, W. G. Lee, W. J. Merryfield, Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L05805 (2011
42. P. R. Gent, G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, S. R. Jayne, D. M. Lawrence, R. B. Neale, P. J. Rasch, M. Vertenstein, P. H. Worley, Z.-L. Yang, M. Zhang, The Community Climate System Model Version 4. J. Climate 24, 4973-4991 (2011
43. A. Voldoire, E. Sanchez-Gomez, D. Salas y Mélia, B. Decharme, C. Cassou, S. Sénési, S. Valcke, I. Beau, A. Alias, M. Chevallier, M. Déqué, J. Deshayes, H. Douville, E. Fernandez, G. Madec, E. Maisonnave, M.-P. Moine, S. Planton, D. Saint-Martin, S. Szopa, S. Tyteca, R. Alkama, S. Belamari, A. Braun, L. Coquart, F. Chauvin, The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: Description and basic evaluation. Clim. Dynam. 40, 2091-2121 (2013
44. L. D. Rotstayn, S. J. Jeffrey, M. A. Collier, S. M. Dravitzki, A. C. Hirst, J. I. Syktus, K. K.Wong, Aerosoland greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: A study using single-forcing climate simulations. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12, 6377-6404 (2012
45. L. Li, P. Lin, Y. Yu, B. Wang, T. Zhou, L. Liu, J. Liu, Q. Bao, S. Xu, W. Huang, K. Xia, Y. Pu, L. Dong, S. Shen, Y. Liu, N. Hu, M. Liu, W. Sun, X. Shi, W. Zheng, B. Wu, M. Song, H. Liu, X. Zhang, G. Wu, W. Xue, X. Huang, G. Yang, Z. Song, F. Qiao, The flexible global ocean-Atmosphere-land system model, grid-point version 2: FGOALS-g2. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 30, 543-560 (2013
46. L. J. Donner, B. L. Wyman, R. S. Hemler, L. W. Horowitz, Y. Ming, M. Zhao, J.-C. Golaz, P. Ginoux, S.-J. Lin, M. D. Schwarzkopf, J. Austin, G. Alaka, W. F. Cooke, T. L. Delworth, S. M. Freidenreich, C. T. Gordon, S. M. Griffies, I. M. Held, W. J. Hurlin, S. A. Klein, T. R. Knutson, A. R. Langenhorst, H.-C. Lee, Y. Lin, B. I. Magi, S. L. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, V. Naik, M. J. Nath, R. Pincus, J. J. Ploshay, V. Ramaswamy, C. J. Seman, E. Shevliakova, J. J. Sirutis, W. F. Stern, R. J. Stouffer, R. J. Wilson, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3. J. Climate 24, 3484-3519 (2011
47. J. P. Dunne, J. G. John, A. J. Adcroft, S. M. Griffies, R. W. Hallberg, E. Shevliakova, R. J. Stouffer, W. Cooke, K. A. Dunne, M. J. Harrison, J. P. Krasting, S. L. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, P. J. Phillipps, L. T. Sentman, B. L. Samuels, M. J. Spelman, M. Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, N. Zadeh, GFDLs ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Climate 25, 6646-6665 (2012
48. G. A. Schmidt, M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, G. L. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. E. Bauer, M. K. Bhat, R. Bleck, V. Canuto, Y.-H. Chen, Y. Cheng, T. L. Clune, A. Del Genio, R. de Fainchtein, G. Faluvegi, J. E. Hansen, R. J. Healy, N. Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A. A. Lacis, A. N. LeGrande, J. Lerner, K. K. Lo, E. E. Matthews, S. Menon, R. L. Miller, V. Oinas, A. O. Oloso, J. P. Perlwitz, M. J. Puma, W. M. Putman, D. Rind, A. Romanou, M. Sato, D. T. Shindell, S. Sun, R. A. Syed, N. Tausnev, K. Tsigaridis, N. Unger, A. Voulgarakis, M.-S. Yao, J. Zhang, Configuration and assessment of the GISS ModelE2 contributions to the CMIP5 archive. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 6, 141-184 (2014
49. G. M. Martin, N. Bellouin, W. J. Collins, I. D. Culverwell, P. R. Halloran, S. C. Hardiman, J. Hinton, C. D. Jones, R. E. McDonald, A. J. McLaren, F. M. O'Connor, M. J. Roberts, J. M. Rodriguez, S. Woodward, M. J. Best, M. E. Brooks, A. R. Brown, N. Butchart, C. Dearden, S. H. Derbyshire, I. Dharssi, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, J. M. Edwards, P. D. Falloon, N. Gedney, L. J. Gray, H. T. Hewitt, M. Hobson, M. R. Huddleston, J. Hughes, S. Ineson, W. J. Ingram, P. M. James, T. C. Johns, C. E. Johnson, A. Jones, C. P. Jones, M. M. Joshi, A. B. Keen, S. Liddicoat, A. P. Lock, A. V. Maidens, J. C. Manners, S. F. Milton, J. G. L. Rae, J. K. Ridley, A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, I. J. Totterdell, A. Verhoef, P. L. Vidale, A. Wiltshire, The HadGEM2 family of met office unified model climate configurations. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 723-757 (2011
50. J.-L. Dufresne, M.-A. Foujols, S. Denvil, A. Caubel, O. Marti, O. Aumont, Y. Balkanski, S. Bekki, H. Bellenger, R. Benshila, S. Bony, L. Bopp, P. Braconnot, P. Brockmann, P. Cadule, F. Cheruy, F. Codron, A. Cozic, D. Cugnet, N. de Noblet, J.-P. Duvel, C. Ethé, L. Fairhead, T. Fichefet, S. Flavoni, P. Friedlingstein, J.-Y. Grandpeix, L. Guez, E. Guilyardi, D. Hauglustaine, F. Hourdin, A. Idelkadi, J. Ghattas, S. Joussaume, M. Kageyama, G. Krinner, S. Labetoulle, A. Lahellec, M.-P. Lefebvre, F. Lefevre, C. Levy, Z. X. Li, J. Lloyd, F. Lott, G. Madec, M. Mancip, M. Marchand, S. Masson, Y. Meurdesoif, J. Mignot, I. Musat, S. Parouty, J. Polcher, C. Rio, M. Schulz, D. Swingedouw, S. Szopa, C. Talandier, P. Terray, N. Viovy, N. Vuichard, Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim. Dynam. 40, 2123-2165 (2013
51. S. Watanabe, T. Hajima, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, T. Takemura, H. Okajima, T. Nozawa, H. Kawase, M. Abe, T. Yokohata, T. Ise, H. Sato, E. Kato, K. Takata, S. Emori, M. Kawamiya, MIROC-ESM 2010: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 4, 845-872 (2011
52. M. Watanabe, T. Suzuki, R. O'ishi, Y. Komuro, S. Watanabe, S. Emori, T. Takemura, M. Chikira, T. Ogura, M. Sekiguchi, K. Takata, D. Yamazaki, T. Yokohata, T. Nozawa, H. Hasumi, H. Tatebe, M. Kimoto, Improved climate simulation by MIROC5. Mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J. Climate 23, 6312-6335 (2010
53. S. Yukimoto, Y. Adachi, M. Hosaka, T. Sakami, H. Yoshimura, M. Hirabara, T. Y. Tanaka, E. Shindo, H. Tsujino, M. Deushi, R. Mizuta, S. Yabu, A. Obata, H. Nakano, T. Koshiro, T. Ose, A. Kitoh, A new global climate model of the meteorological research institute: MRICGCM3-Model description and basic performance. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 90A, 23-64 (2012
54. M. A. Giorgetta, J. Jungclaus, C. H. Reick, S. Legutke, J. Bader, M. Böttinger, V. Brovkin, T. Crueger, M. Esch, K. Fieg, K. Glushak, V. Gayler, H. Haak, H.-D. Hollweg, T. Ilyina, S. Kinne, L. Kornblueh, D. Matei, T. Mauritsen, U. Mikolajewicz, W. Mueller, D. Notz, F. Pithan, T. Raddatz, S. Rast, R. Redler, E. Roeckner, H. Schmidt, R. Schnur, J. Segschneider, K. D. Six, M. Stockhause, C. Timmreck, J. Wegner, H. Widmann, K.-H. Wieners, M. Claussen, J. Marotzke, B. Stevens, Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 5, 572-597 (2013
55. M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, J. B. Debernard, T. Iversen, A. Kirkevåg, Ø. Seland, H. Drange, C. Roelandt, I. A. Seierstad, C. Hoose, J. E. Kristjánsson, The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M-Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 687-720 (2013
56. J.-C. Golaz, L. W. Horowitz, H. Levy II, Cloud tuning in a coupled climate model: Impact on 20th century warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2246-2251 (2013