Spatial patterns of global precipitation change and variability during 1901-2010

Journal of Climate

Volumn 28, Issue 11, 2015, Pages 4431-4453

  Gu, Guojun ^a   Adler, Robert F ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Interdecadal variability; Multidecadal variability; Pacific decadal oscillation; Precipitation; Trends

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; GREENHOUSE GASES; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; TRENDS;

AEROSOLS;

AEROSOL; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE VARIATION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DECADAL VARIATION; GREENHOUSE GAS; NUMERICAL MODEL; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SPATIAL VARIATION;

EID: 84962226624     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00201.1     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147-1167, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
2. Adler, R. F., G. Gu, J.-J. Wang, G. J. Huffman, S. Curtis, and D. Bolvin, 2008: Relationships between global precipitation and surface temperature on the longer-than-seasonal time scales (1979-2006). J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22104, doi:10.1029/2008JD010536.
3. Allan, R. P., B. J. Soden, V. O. John, W. I. Ingram, and P. Good, 2010: Current changes in tropical precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025205, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025205.
4. Allan, R. P., C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias, and A. Bodas-Salcedo, 2014: Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations. Surv. Geophys., 35, 533-552, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z.
5. Allen, M. R., and W. J. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232, doi:10.1038/nature01092.
6. Andrews, T., and P. M. Forster, 2010: The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025212, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025212.
7. Andrews, T., and P. M. Forster, O. Boucher, N. Bellouin, and A. Jones, 2010: Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043991.
8. Arkin, P. A., T. M. Smith, M. R. P. Sapiano, and J. Janowiak, 2010: The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 035201, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035201.
9. Becker, A., P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, B. Rudolf, K. Schamm, U. Schneider, and M. Ziese, 2013: A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901-present. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 71-99, doi:10.5194/essd-5-71-2013.
10. Bony, S., G. Bellon, D. Klocke, S. Sherwood, S. Fermepin, and S. Denvil, 2013: Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat. Geosci., 6, 447-451, doi:10.1038/ngeo1799.
11. Burgman, R. J., A. C. Clement, C. M. Mitas, J. Chen, and K. Esslinger, 2008: Evidence for atmospheric variability over the Pacific on decadal timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L01704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031830.
12. Chen, X., and K.-K. Tung, 2014: Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration. Science, 345, 897-903, doi:10.1126/science.1254937.
13. Chiang, J. C. H., and A. R. Friedman, 2012: Extratropical cooling, interhemispheric thermal gradients, and tropical climate change. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 40, 383-412, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105545.
14. Chou, C., and J. D. Neelin, 2004: Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J. Climate, 17, 2688-2701, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2688: MOGWIO>2.0.CO;2.
15. Chou, C., J. C. H. Chiang, C.-W. Lan, C.-H. Chung, Y.-C. Liao, and C.-J. Lee, 2013: Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation. Nat. Geosci., 6, 263-267, doi:10.1038/ngeo1744.
16. Curtis, S., and R. F. Adler, 2003: Evolution of El Niño-precipitation relationships from satellites and gauges. J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D4), 4153, doi:10.1029/2002JD002690.
17. Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkage between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109: PICVLB>2.0.CO;2.
18. Dong, B., R. T. Sutton, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Multidecadal modulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08705, doi:10.1029/2006GL025766.
19. Dong, L., and T. Zhou, 2014a: The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming simulated by CMIP5 models during the twentieth century: Competing forcing roles of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols. J. Climate, 27, 3348-3362, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00396.1.
20. Dong, L., and T. Zhou, 2014b: The formation of the recent cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the associated climate impacts: A competition of global warming, IPO, and AMO. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 11 272-11 287, doi:10.1002/2013JD021395.
21. Dong, L., and T. Zhou, and X. Chen, 2014a: Changes of Pacific decadal variability in the twentieth century driven by internal variability, greenhouse gases, and aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8570-8577, doi:10.1002/2014GL062269.
22. Dong, L., and T. Zhou, and B. Wu, 2014b: Indian Ocean warming during 1958-2004 simulated by a climate system model and its mechanism. Climate Dyn., 42, 203-217, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1722-z.
23. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077-2080, doi:10.1029/2000GL012745.
24. Gu, G., and R. F. Adler, 2013: Interdecadal variability/longterm changes in global precipitation patterns during the past three decades: Global warming and/or Pacific decadal variability? Climate Dyn., 40, 3009-3022, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1443-8.
25. Gu, G., and R. F. Adler, G. Huffman, and S. Curtis, 2007: Tropical rainfall variability on interannual-to-interdecadal/longer-time scales derived from the GPCP monthly product. J. Climate, 20, 4033-4046, doi:10.1175/JCLI4227.1.
26. Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and M. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30 997-31 022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.
27. Hansen, J., and Coauthors, 2007: Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE. Climate Dyn., 29, 661-696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8.
28. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1.
29. Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keelyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2010: Climate impact of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature: A multimodel comparison. Climate Dyn., 34, 1041-1058, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2.
30. Huffman, G. J., R. F. Adler, D. T. Bolvin, and G. Gu, 2009: Improvements in the GPCP global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17808, doi:10.1029/2009GL040000.
31. Hwang, Y.-T., D. M. W. Frierson, and S. M. Kang, 2013: Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2845-2850, doi:10.1002/grl.50502.
32. John, V. O., R. P. Allan, and B. J. Soden, 2009: How robust are observed and simulated precipitation responses to tropical ocean warming? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L14702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038276.
33. Knight, J. R., C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife, 2006: Climate impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17706, doi:10.1029/2006GL026242.
34. Li, H., A. Dai, T. Zhou, and J. Lu, 2010: Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to historical SST and atmospheric forcing during 1950-2000. Climate Dyn., 34, 501-514, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0482-7.
35. Liu, C., and R. P. Allan, 2013: Observed and simulated precipitation responses in wet and dry regions 1850-2100. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034002, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034002.
36. Liu, Z., S. Vavrus, F. He, N. Wen, and Y. Zhong, 2005: Rethinking tropical ocean response to global warming: The enhanced equatorial warming. J. Climate, 18, 4684-4700, doi:10.1175/JCLI3579.1.
37. Lu, J., A. Hu, and Z. Zeng, 2014: On the possible interaction between internal climate variability and forced climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2962-2970, doi:10.1002/2014GL059908.
38. Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare, 2002: The Pacific decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr., 58, 35-44, doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384.
39. Marvel, K., and C. Bonfils, 2013: Identifying external influences on global precipitation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 19 301-19 306, doi:10.1073/pnas.1314382110.
40. McCabe, G. J., M. A. Palecki, and J. L. Betancourt, 2004: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 4136-4141, doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101.
41. Nigam, S., B. Guan, and A. Ruiz-Barradas, 2011: Key role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation in 20th century drought and wet periods over the Great Plains. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16713, doi:10.1029/2011GL048650.
42. Noake, K., D. Polson, G. Hegerl, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in seasonal land precipitation during the latter twentiethcentury. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03706, doi:10.1029/2011GL050405.
43. Ren, L., P. Arkin, T. M. Smith, and S. S. P. Shen, 2013: Global precipitation trends in 1900-2005 from a reconstruction and coupled model simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1679-1689, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50212.
44. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609: AIISAS>2.0.CO;2.
45. Scheff, J., and D. M. W. Frierson, 2012: Robust future precipitation declines in CMIP5 largely reflect the poleward expansion of model subtropical dry zones. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L18704, doi:10.1029/2012GL052910.
46. Schneider, U., A. Becker, P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, M. Ziese, and B. Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 115, 15-40, doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.
47. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore, 2008: Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J. Climate, 21, 2283-2296, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1.
48. Smith, T. M., P. A. Arkin, and M. R. P. Sapiano, 2009: Reconstruction of near-global annual precipitation using correlations with sea surface temperature and sea level pressure. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D12107, doi:10.1029/2008JD011580.
49. Smith, T. M., P. A. Arkin, L. Ren, and S. S. P. Shen, 2012: Improved reconstruction of global precipitation since 1900. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 29, 1505-1517, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-12-00001.1.
50. Song, F., T. Zhou, and Y. Qian, 2014: Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 596-603, doi:10.1002/2013GL058705.
51. Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson, 2007: Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean. J. Climate, 20, 891-907, doi:10.1175/JCLI4038.1.
52. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
53. Thompson, D.W. J., J. M. Wallace, J. J. Kennedy, and P. D. Jones, 2010: An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970. Nature, 467, 444-447, doi:10.1038/nature09394.
54. Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61-78, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2.
55. Trenberth, K. E., 2011: Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Res., 47, 123-138, doi:10.3354/cr00953.
56. Trenberth, K. E., and J. T. Fasullo, 2013: An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth's Future, 1, 19-32, doi:10.1002/2013EF000165.
57. Tung, K.-K., and J. Zhou, 2013: Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 2058-2063, doi:10.1073/pnas.1212471110.
58. Wentz, F. J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235, doi:10.1126/science.1140746.
59. Wilcox, L. J., E. J. Highwood, and N. J. Dunstone, 2013: The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 024033, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024033.
60. Wu, B., T. Zhou, and T. Li, 2009: Contrast of rainfall-SST relationship in the western North Pacific between the ENSOdeveloping and ENSO-decaying summers. J. Climate, 22, 4398-4405, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2648.1.
61. Wu, B., T. Li, and T. Zhou, 2010: Relative contributions of the Indian Ocean and local SST anomalies to the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone during the El Nino decaying summer. J. Climate, 23, 2974-2986, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3300.1.
62. Wu, P., N. Christidis, and P. Stott, 2013: Anthropogenic impact on Earth's hydrological cycle. Nat. Climate Change, 3, 807-810, doi:10.1038/nclimate1932.
63. Wu, S., Z. Liu, R. Zhang, and T. L. Delworth, 2011: On the observed relationship between the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. J. Oceanogr., 67, 27-35, doi:10.1007/s10872-011-0003-x.
64. Wu, Z., N. E. Huang, J. M. Wallace, B. V. Smoliak, and X. Chen, 2011: On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature. Climate Dyn., 37, 759-773, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8.
65. Xie, S.-P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: Sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966-986, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3329.1.
66. Xue, Y., T. M. Smith, and R. W. Reynolds, 2003: Interdecadal changes of 30-yr SST normals during 1871-2000. J. Climate, 16, 1601-1612, doi:10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1601.
67. Zhang, L., and T. Zhou, 2011: An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901-2001. Climate Dyn., 37, 279-296, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-0993-5.
68. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2006: Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L17712, doi:10.1029/2006GL026267.
69. Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth, 2007: Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23708, doi:10.1029/2007GL031601.
70. Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, F. H. Lambert, N. P. Gillett, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, and T. Nozawa, 2007: Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends. Nature, 448, 461-465, doi:10.1038/nature06025.
71. Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2.
72. Zhou, T., R. Yu, H. Li, andB. Wang, 2008a: Ocean forcing to changes in global monsoon precipitation over the recent half-century. J. Climate, 21, 3833-3852, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2067.1.
73. Zhou, T., L. Zhang, and H. Li, 2008b: Changes in global land monsoon area and total rainfall accumulation over the last half century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16707, doi:10.1029/2008GL034881.