Estimating the frequency of volcanic ash clouds over northern Europe

Earth and Planetary Science Letters

Volumn 460, Issue , 2017, Pages 41-49

  Watson, E J ^a   Swindles, G T ^a   Savov, I P ^a   Lawson, I T ^b   Connor, C B ^c   Wilson, J A ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

cryptotephra; eruptions; hazards; Iceland; reoccurrence; survival analysis

Indexed keywords

CLOUDS; HAZARDS; HEALTH RISKS;

CRYPTOTEPHRA; ERUPTIONS; ICELANDS; REOCCURRENCE; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS;

VOLCANOES;

EXPLOSIVE VOLCANISM; NATURAL HAZARD; TEPHRA; VOLCANIC ASH; VOLCANIC ERUPTION;

FAROE ISLANDS; ICELAND; IRELAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 85006942660     PISSN: 0012821X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.11.054     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Akaike, H., Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike, 1998, Springer, 199–213.
2. Bebbington, M.S., Cronin, S.J., Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model. Bull. Volcanol., 73, 2011.
3. Bevilacqua, A., Isaia, R., Neri, A., Vitale, S., Aspinall, W.P., Bisson, M., Flandoli, F., Baxter, P.J., Bertagnini, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Iannuzzi, E., Pistolesi, M., Rosi, M., Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 1. Vent opening maps. J. Geophys. Res., Solid Earth 120 (2015), 2309–2329.
4. Blockley, S.P.E., Pyne-O'Donnell, S.D.F., Lowe, J.J., Matthews, I.P., Stone, A., Pollard, A.M., Turney, C.S.M., Molyneux, E.G., A new and less destructive laboratory procedure for the physical separation of distal glass tephra shards from sediments. Quat. Sci. Rev. 24 (2005), 1952–1960.
5. Chambers, F.M., Daniell, J.R.G., Hunt, J.B., Molloy, K., O'Connell, M., Tephrostratigraphy of An Loch Mor, Inis Oirr, western Ireland: implications for Holocene tephrochronology in the northeastern Atlantic region. Holocene 14 (2004), 703–720.
6. Connor, C., Bebbington, M., Marzocchi, W., Chapter 51 – Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. Sigurdsson, H., (eds.) The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, second edition, 2015, Academic Press, Amsterdam, 897–910.
7. Connor, C.B., McBirney, A.R., Furlan, C., What is the probability of explosive eruption at a long-dormant volcano?. Mader, H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J., (eds.) Statistics in Volcanology, 2006, The Geological Society, London, 39–46.
8. Connor, C.B., Sparks, R., Mason, R., Bonadonna, C., Young, S., Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2003, 1701.
9. Costa, A., Pioli, L., Bonadonna, C., Assessing tephra total grain-size distribution: insights from field data analysis. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 443 (2016), 90–107, 10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.040.
10. Cox, D.R., Oakes, D., Analysis of Survival Data: Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. 1984, Chapman and Hall, London.
11. Davies, S.M., Elmquist, M., Bergman, J., Wohlfarth, B., Hammarlund, D., Cryptotephra sedimentation processes within two lacustrine sequences from west central Sweden. Holocene 17 (2007), 319–330.
12. Davies, S.M., Larsen, G., Wastegård, S., Turney, C.S.M., Hall, V.A., Coyle, L., Thordarson, T., Widespread dispersal of Icelandic tephra: how does the Eyjafjöll eruption of 2010 compare to past Icelandic events?. J. Quat. Sci. 25 (2010), 605–611.
13. De Vleeschouwer, F., Chambers, F.M., Swindles, G.T., Coring and sub-sampling of peatlands for palaeoenvironmental research. Mires Peat 7 (2011), 1–10.
14. Dugmore, A.J., Larsen, G., Newton, A.J., Seven tephra isochrones in Scotland. Holocene 5 (1995), 257–266.
15. Dugmore, A.J., Newton, A.J., Thin tephra layers in peat revealed by X-radiography. J. Archaeol. Sci. 19 (1992), 163–170.
16. Dugmore, A.J., Newton, A.J., Isochrons and beyond: maximising the use of tephrochronology in geomorphology. Jökull 62 (2012), 39–52.
17. Dugmore, A.J., Newton, A.J., Edwards, K.J., Larsen, G., Blackford, J.J., Cook, G.T., Long-distance marker horizons from small-scale eruptions: British tephra deposits from the AD 1510 eruption of Hekla, Iceland. J. Quat. Sci. 11 (1996), 511–516.
18. Dzierma, Y., Wehrmann, H., On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century's eruption record based on statistical analyses. Andean Geol. 39 (2012), 380–393.
19. Eurostat, 2006. GISCO Airports 2006. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/transport-networks.
20. Folch, A., Costa, A., Basart, S., Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds. Atmos. Environ. 48 (2012), 165–183.
21. Folch, A., Mingari, L., Osores, M.S., Collini, E., Modeling volcanic ash resuspension – application to the 14–18 October 2011 outbreak episode in central Patagonia, Argentina. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 14 (2014), 119–133, 10.5194/nhess-14-119-2014.
22. Global Volcanism Program, 2013. Volcanoes of the world, v. 4.3.4., in: Venzke, E. (Ed.), Smithsonian Institution.
23. Haflidason, H., Eiriksson, J., Van Kreveld, S., The tephrochronology of Iceland and the North Atlantic region during the Middle and Late Quaternary: a review. J. Quat. Sci. 15 (2000), 3–22.
24. Hall, M., Hayward, C., Preparation of micro- and crypto-tephras for quantitative microbeam analysis. Special Publications Geological Society of London, vol. 398, 2014, 21–28.
25. Hall, V.A., Mauquoy, D., Tephra-dated climate- and human-impact studies during the last 1500 years from a raised bog in central Ireland. Holocene 15 (2005), 1086–1093.
26. Hall, V.A., Pilcher, J.R., Late-Quaternary Icelandic tephras in Ireland and Great Britain: detection, characterization and usefulness. Holocene 12 (2002), 223–230.
27. Hayward, C., High spatial resolution electron probe microanalysis of tephras and melt inclusions without beam-induced chemical modification. Holocene 22 (2012), 119–125.
28. Jensen, B.J.L., Pyne-O'Donnell, S., Plunkett, G., Froese, D.G., Hughes, P.D.M., Sigl, M., McConnell, J.R., Amesbury, M.J., Blackwell, P.G., van den Bogaard, C., Buck, C.E., Charman, D.J., Clague, J.J., Hall, V.A., Koch, J., Mackay, H., Mallon, G., McColl, L., Pilcher, J.R., Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology 42 (2014), 875–878.
29. Jochum, K.P., Willbold, M., Raczek, I., Stoll, B., Herwig, K., Chemical characterisation of the USGS reference glasses GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G, GSE-1G, BCR-2G, BHVO-2G and BIR-1G using EPMA, ID-TIMS, ID-ICP-MS and LA-ICP-MS. Geostand. Geoanal. Res. 29 (2005), 285–302.
30. Johansson, H., Lind, E.M. Wastegård, S., 2016, Compositions of glass in proximal tephras from eruptions in the Azores archipelago and their links with distal sites in Ireland. Quat. Geochronol. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2016.07.006, in press.
31. Jull, M., McKenzie, D., The effect of deglaciation on mantle melting beneath Iceland. J. Geophys. Res., Solid Earth 101 (1996), 21815–21828.
32. Kiyosugi, Koji, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Monogenetic Volcanic Fields, unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. University of South Florida.
33. Lacasse, C., Influence of climate variability on the atmospheric transport of Icelandic tephra in the subpolar North Atlantic. Glob. Planet. Change, 2001, 10.1016/S0921-8181(01)00099-6.
34. Larsen, G., Dugmore, A., Newton, A., Geochemistry of historical-age silicic tephras in Iceland. Holocene 9 (1999), 463–471.
35. Larsen, G., Gudmundsson, M.T., Björnsson, H., Eight centuries of periodic volcanism at the center of the Iceland hotspot revealed by glacier tephrostratigraphy. Geology 26 (1998), 943–946.
36. Lawson, I.T., Swindles, G.T., Plunkett, G., Greenberg, D., The spatial distribution of Holocene cryptotephras in north–west Europe since 7 ka: implications for understanding ash fall events from Icelandic eruptions. Quat. Sci. Rev. 41 (2012), 57–66.
37. Lowe, D.J., Tephrochronology and its application: a review. Quat. Geochronol. 6 (2011), 107–153.
38. Mason, B.G., Pyle, D.M., Oppenheimer, C., The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth. Bull. Volcanol. 66 (2004), 735–748.
39. Mohn, H., Askeregnen den 29de-30–teMarts 1875. Forh. I Videnskapsselskabet I Christiania aar 1877:10 (1878), 89–92.
40. Newhall, C.G., Self, S., The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res. 87 (1982), 1231–1238.
41. Newton, A.J., Dugmore, A.J., Gittings, B.M., Tephrabase: tephrochronology and the development of a centralised European database. J. Quat. Sci. 22 (2007), 737–743.
42. Pilcher, J., Bradley, R.S., Francus, P., Anderson, L., A Holocene tephra record from the Lofoten Islands, Arctic Norway. Boreas 34 (2005), 136–156.
43. Pollard, A.M., Blockley, S.P.E., Ward, K.R., Chemical alteration of tephra in the depositional 51 environment: theoretical stability modelling. J. Quat. Sci. 18 (2003), 385–394.
44. Ponomareva, V., Portnyagin, M., Davies, S.M., Tephra without borders: far-reaching clues into past explosive eruptions. Front. Earth Sci., 3, 2015, 83.
45. Pyle, D.M., Ricketts, G.D., Margari, V., Van Andel, T.H., Sinitsyn, A.A., Praslov, N.D., Lisitsyn, S., Wide dispersal and deposition of distal tephra during the Pleistocene ‘Campanian Ignimbrite/Y5’ eruption, Italy. Quat. Sci. Rev. 25 (2006), 2713–2728.
46. Reilly, E., Mitchell, F.J., Establishing chronologies for woodland small hollow and mor humus deposits using tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating. Holocene 25 (2015), 241–252.
47. Schmidt, P., Lund, B., Hieronymus, C., Maclennan, J., Árnadóttir, T., Pagli, C., Effects of present-day deglaciation in Iceland on mantle melt production rates. J. Geophys. Res., Solid Earth 118 (2013), 3366–3379.
48. Smith, V.C., Isaia, R., Engwell, S.L., Albert, P.G., Tephra dispersal during the Campanian Ignimbrite (Italy) eruption: implications for ultra-distal ash transport during the large caldera-forming eruption. Bull. Volcanol., 78, 2016, 45.
49. Stevenson, J.A., Loughlin, S., Font, A., Fuller, G.W., MacLeod, A., Oliver, L.W., Jackson, B., Horwell, C.J., Thordarson, T., Dawson, I., UK monitoring and deposition of tephra from the May 2011 eruption of Grímsvötn, Iceland. J. Appl. Volcanol., 2, 2013.
50. Swindles, G.T., Lawson, I.T., Savov, I.P., Connor, C.B., Plunkett, G., A 7000 yr perspective on volcanic ash clouds affecting northern Europe. Geology 39 (2011), 887–890.
51. Swindles, G.T., Savov, I.P., Connor, C.B., Carrivick, J., Watson, E.J., Lawson, I.T., Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view. Geol. Today 29 (2013), 215–217.
52. Thorarinsson, S., The tephra-fall from Hekla on March 29th 1947. Einarsson, T., Kjartansson, G.S.T., (eds.) The Eruption of Hekla 1947–48, 1954, Societas Scientarum Islandica, Reykjavik, 1–68.
53. Thordarson, T., Hoskuldsson, A., Postglacial volcanism in Iceland. Jokull 58 (2008), 197–228.
54. Wastegård, S., Davies, S.M., An overview of distal tephrochronology in northern Europe during the last 1000 years. J. Quat. Sci. 24 (2009), 500–512.
55. Watson, E.J., Swindles, G.T., Lawson, I.T., Savov, I.P., Do peatlands or lakes provide the most comprehensive distal tephra records?. Quat. Sci. Rev. 139 (2016), 110–128.
56. Wilson, J.A., A New Volcanic Event Recurrence Rate Model and Code for Estimating Uncertainty in Recurrence Rate and Volume Flux Through Time with Selected Examples. Unpublished M.S. Thesis, 2016, University of South Florida http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6435.
57. Wulf, S., Dräger, N., Ott, F., Serb, J., Appelt, O., Guðmundsdóttir, E., van den Bogaard, C., Słowiński, M., Błaszkiewicz, M., Brauer, A., Holocene tephrostratigraphy of varved sediment records from Lakes Tiefer See (NE Germany) and Czechowskie (N Poland). Quat. Sci. Rev. 132 (2016), 1–14.