Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment

The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes

Volumn , Issue , 2015, Pages 897-910

  Connor, Chuck ^a   Bebbington, Mark ^b   Marzocchi, Warner ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA   (United States)

^b MASSEY UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

^c ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Bayesian event tree; Eruption forecast; Eruption frequency; Eruption recurrence rate; Hazard curve; Hazard map; Probabilistic volcanic hazard; Vent distribution

Indexed keywords

EID: 85153343097     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00051-1     Document Type: Chapter

References (21)

1. P.J. Baxter, W.P. Aspinall, A. Neri, G. Zuccaro, R.J.S. Spence, R. Cioni and G. Woo (2008) Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: a new evidence-based approach. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 178(3), 454-473.
2. M.J. Bayarri, J.O. Berger, E.S. Calder, K. Dalbey, S. Lunagomez, A.K. Patra, E.B. Pitman, E.T. Spiller and R.L. Wolpert (2009) Using statistical and computer models to quantify volcanic hazards. Technometrics 51 402-413.
3. M.S. Bebbington (2007) Identifying volcanic regimes using hidden Markov models. Geophys. J. Int. 171 921-942.
4. M.S. Bebbington and C.D. Lai (1996) On nonhomogeneous models for volcanic eruptions. Math. Geol. 28(5), 585-600.
5. M. Bebbington and S.J. Cronin (2011) Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model. Bull. Volcanol. 73(1), 55-72.
6. M.L. Burt, G. Wadge and R.N. Curnow (2001) An objective method for mapping hazardous flow deposits from the stratigraphic record of stratovolcanoes: a case example from Montagne Pelee. Bull. Volcanol. 63 98-111.
7. C.B. Connor and B.E. Hill (1995) Three nonhomogeneous Poisson models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: application to the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. J. Geophys. Res. 100(12), 107-110. 125
8. L.J. Connor, C.B. Connor, K. Meliksetian and I. Savov (2012) Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia. J. Appl. Volcanol. 1(3), 10.1186/2191-5040-1-3
9. K.J. Coppersmith, K.E. Jenni, R.C. Perman and R.R. Youngs (2009) Formal expert assessment in probabilistic seismic and volcanic hazard analysis. C.B. Connor, N.A. Chapman, L.J. Connor (Eds) Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Facilities Cambridge University Press 593-611.
10. S. De la Cruz-Reyna (1991) Poisson-distributed patterns of explosive eruptive activity. Bull. Volcanol. 54 57-67.
11. A. Garcia-Aristizabal, J. Selva and E. Fujita (2013) Integration of stochastic models for long-term eruption forecasting into a Bayesian event tree scheme: a basis method to estimate the probability of volcanic unrest. Bull. Volcanol. 75(2), 1-13.
12. B.E. Hill, C.B. Connor, M.S. Jarzemba, P.C. La Femina, M. Navarro and W. Strauch (1998) 1995 eruptions of Cerro Negro volcano, Nicaragua, and risk assessment for future eruptions. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 110(10), 1231-1241.
13. T.A. Jaggar (1945) Protection of harbors from lava flow. Am. J. Sci. 243 333-351.
14. F.W. Klein (1982) Patterns of historical eruptions at Hawaiian volcanoes. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 12 1-35.
15. A.J. Martin, K. Umeda, C.B. Connor, J.N. Weller, D.P. Zhao and M. Takahashi (2004) Modeling long-term volcanic hazards through Bayesian inference: an example from the Tohoku volcanic arc, Japan. J. Geophys. Res. 109(B10208)
16. W. Marzocchi and M.S. Bebbington (2012) Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales. Bull. Volcanol. 74 1-29.
17. W. Marzocchi, L. Sandri and J. Selva (2010) BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment. Bull. Volcanol. 72 705-716.
18. F. Mulargia, P. Gasperini and S. Tinti (1987) Identifying regimes in eruptive activity: an application to Etna volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 34 89-106.
19. C. Newhall and R. Hoblitt (2002) Constructing event trees for volcanic crises. Bull. Volcanol. 64(1), 3-20.
20. D.M. Pyle (1998) Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events. Geology 26(4), 367-370.
21. F.E. Wickman (1966) Repose-period patterns of volcanoes. I. Volcanic eruptions regarded as random phenomena. Arch. Mineral. Geol. 4 291-367.