메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 118, Issue , 2017, Pages 473-480

Novel grey prediction model with nonlinear optimized time response method for forecasting of electricity consumption in China

Author keywords

Electricity consumption; Grey prediction model; Initial value; Particle swarm optimization

Indexed keywords

ELECTRIC POWER UTILIZATION; ENERGY UTILIZATION; FORECASTING; NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING; PARTICLE SWARM OPTIMIZATION (PSO); SYSTEM THEORY;

EID: 85005980974     PISSN: 03605442     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (138)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 84958998908 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model
    • [1] Yuan, C., Liu, S., Fang, Z., Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model. Energy 100 (2016), 384–390.
    • (2016) Energy , vol.100 , pp. 384-390
    • Yuan, C.1    Liu, S.2    Fang, Z.3
  • 2
    • 77955173218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models
    • [2] Tan, Z., Zhang, J., Wang, J., Xu, J., Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using wavelet transform combined with ARIMA and GARCH models. Appl Energy 87:11 (2010), 3606–3610.
    • (2010) Appl Energy , vol.87 , Issue.11 , pp. 3606-3610
    • Tan, Z.1    Zhang, J.2    Wang, J.3    Xu, J.4
  • 3
    • 84925350752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prognostication of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis of apple production in West Azarbayjan of Iran using Artificial Neural Network
    • [3] Taghavifar, H., Mardani, A., Prognostication of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis of apple production in West Azarbayjan of Iran using Artificial Neural Network. J Clean Prod 87 (2015), 159–167.
    • (2015) J Clean Prod , vol.87 , pp. 159-167
    • Taghavifar, H.1    Mardani, A.2
  • 4
    • 76649131245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks
    • [4] Ekonomou, L., Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural networks. Energy 35:2 (2010), 512–517.
    • (2010) Energy , vol.35 , Issue.2 , pp. 512-517
    • Ekonomou, L.1
  • 5
    • 84919800700 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting electricity consumption: a comparison of regression analysis, neural networks and least squares support vector machines
    • [5] Kaytez, F., Taplamacioglu, M.C., Cam, E., Hardalac, F., Forecasting electricity consumption: a comparison of regression analysis, neural networks and least squares support vector machines. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 67 (2015), 431–438.
    • (2015) Int J Electr Power Energy Syst , vol.67 , pp. 431-438
    • Kaytez, F.1    Taplamacioglu, M.C.2    Cam, E.3    Hardalac, F.4
  • 6
    • 84893498952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model
    • [6] Zhao, W., Wang, J., Lu, H., Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model. Omega 45 (2014), 80–91.
    • (2014) Omega , vol.45 , pp. 80-91
    • Zhao, W.1    Wang, J.2    Lu, H.3
  • 7
    • 77949266106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India
    • [7] Kumar, U., Jain, V.K., Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India. Energy 35:4 (2010), 1709–1716.
    • (2010) Energy , vol.35 , Issue.4 , pp. 1709-1716
    • Kumar, U.1    Jain, V.K.2
  • 8
    • 84887367105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hybrid model (SARIMA–SVM) for short-term power forecasting of a small-scale grid-connected photovoltaic plant
    • [8] Bouzerdoum, M., Mellit, A., MassiPavan, A., A hybrid model (SARIMA–SVM) for short-term power forecasting of a small-scale grid-connected photovoltaic plant. Sol Energy 98 (2013), 226–235.
    • (2013) Sol Energy , vol.98 , pp. 226-235
    • Bouzerdoum, M.1    Mellit, A.2    MassiPavan, A.3
  • 9
    • 84893872426 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: a multiple SVM approach
    • [9] Yan, X., Chowdhury, N.A., Mid-term electricity market clearing price forecasting: a multiple SVM approach. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 58 (2014), 206–214.
    • (2014) Int J Electr Power Energy Syst , vol.58 , pp. 206-214
    • Yan, X.1    Chowdhury, N.A.2
  • 10
    • 50849151631 scopus 로고
    • Control problems of grey systems
    • [10] Ju-Long, D., Control problems of grey systems. Syst Control Lett 1:5 (1982), 288–294.
    • (1982) Syst Control Lett , vol.1 , Issue.5 , pp. 288-294
    • Ju-Long, D.1
  • 11
    • 33750519620 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Grey information theory and practical applications
    • Springer-Verlag London
    • [11] Liu, S., Lin, Y., Grey information theory and practical applications. 2006, Springer-Verlag, London.
    • (2006)
    • Liu, S.1    Lin, Y.2
  • 12
    • 84865416261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An optimal hybrid model for atomic power generation prediction in Japan
    • [12] Li, G., Masuda, S., Nagai, M., An optimal hybrid model for atomic power generation prediction in Japan. Energy 45:1 (2012), 655–661.
    • (2012) Energy , vol.45 , Issue.1 , pp. 655-661
    • Li, G.1    Masuda, S.2    Nagai, M.3
  • 13
    • 84856554402 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wave prediction based on a modified grey model MGM(1,1) for real-time control of wave energy converters in irregular waves
    • [13] Truong, D.Q., Ahn, K.K., Wave prediction based on a modified grey model MGM(1,1) for real-time control of wave energy converters in irregular waves. Renew Energy 43 (2012), 242–255.
    • (2012) Renew Energy , vol.43 , pp. 242-255
    • Truong, D.Q.1    Ahn, K.K.2
  • 14
    • 84901684155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model
    • [14] Hamzacebi, C., Es, H.A., Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model. Energy 70 (2014), 165–171.
    • (2014) Energy , vol.70 , pp. 165-171
    • Hamzacebi, C.1    Es, H.A.2
  • 15
    • 84859106616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model
    • [15] Pao, H., Fu, H., Tseng, C., Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model. Energy 40:1 (2012), 400–409.
    • (2012) Energy , vol.40 , Issue.1 , pp. 400-409
    • Pao, H.1    Fu, H.2    Tseng, C.3
  • 16
    • 78650153634 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generalized admissible region of class ratio for GM(1,1)
    • [16] Ying, K.C., Liao, C.J., Hsu, Y.T., Generalized admissible region of class ratio for GM(1,1). J Grey Syst 12:2 (2000), 153–156.
    • (2000) J Grey Syst , vol.12 , Issue.2 , pp. 153-156
    • Ying, K.C.1    Liao, C.J.2    Hsu, Y.T.3
  • 17
    • 84875375277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of sample size on the grey system model
    • [17] Wu, L., Liu, S., Yao, L., Yan, S., The effect of sample size on the grey system model. Appl Math Modell 37:9 (2013), 6577–6583.
    • (2013) Appl Math Modell , vol.37 , Issue.9 , pp. 6577-6583
    • Wu, L.1    Liu, S.2    Yao, L.3    Yan, S.4
  • 18
    • 0004369483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Grey system theory and its application
    • Science Press Beijing
    • [18] Liu, S., Dang, Y., Fang, Z., Grey system theory and its application. 2010, Science Press, Beijing.
    • (2010)
    • Liu, S.1    Dang, Y.2    Fang, Z.3
  • 19
    • 34547646185 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Study on characteristics of the strengthening buffer operators
    • (in Chinese)
    • [19] Dang, Y., Liu, S., Mi, C., Study on characteristics of the strengthening buffer operators. Control Decis 22:7 (2007), 730–734 (in Chinese).
    • (2007) Control Decis , vol.22 , Issue.7 , pp. 730-734
    • Dang, Y.1    Liu, S.2    Mi, C.3
  • 20
    • 84893527462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New buffer operators with variable weight based on average tempo and their optimization
    • [20] Dai, W.Z., Wu, Z.H., Yang, A.P., New buffer operators with variable weight based on average tempo and their optimization. Grey Syst Theory Appl 1:2 (2011), 168–177.
    • (2011) Grey Syst Theory Appl , vol.1 , Issue.2 , pp. 168-177
    • Dai, W.Z.1    Wu, Z.H.2    Yang, A.P.3
  • 21
    • 84900025569 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Geometrical variable weights buffer GM(1,1) model and its application in forecasting of China's energy consumption
    • [21] Wei, L., Han, X., Geometrical variable weights buffer GM(1,1) model and its application in forecasting of China's energy consumption. J Appl Math, 2014, 131432–131436.
    • (2014) J Appl Math , pp. 131432-131436
    • Wei, L.1    Han, X.2
  • 22
    • 84873569612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Grey system model with the fractional order accumulation
    • [22] Wu, L., Liu, S., Yao, L., Yan, S., Liu, D., Grey system model with the fractional order accumulation. Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul 18:7 (2013), 1775–1785.
    • (2013) Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simul , vol.18 , Issue.7 , pp. 1775-1785
    • Wu, L.1    Liu, S.2    Yao, L.3    Yan, S.4    Liu, D.5
  • 23
    • 84951975227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel fractional grey system model and its application
    • [23] Mao, S., Gao, M., Xiao, X., Zhu, M., A novel fractional grey system model and its application. Appl Math Modell 40:7–8 (2016), 5063–5076.
    • (2016) Appl Math Modell , vol.40 , Issue.7-8 , pp. 5063-5076
    • Mao, S.1    Gao, M.2    Xiao, X.3    Zhu, M.4
  • 24
    • 84983765540 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comprehensive optimized GM(1,1) model and application for short term forecasting of Chinese energy consumption and production
    • [24] Xu, N., Dang, Y., Cui, J., Comprehensive optimized GM(1,1) model and application for short term forecasting of Chinese energy consumption and production. J Syst Eng Electron 26:04 (2015), 794–801.
    • (2015) J Syst Eng Electron , vol.26 , Issue.4 , pp. 794-801
    • Xu, N.1    Dang, Y.2    Cui, J.3
  • 25
    • 84887278050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel interval grey prediction model considering uncertain information
    • [25] Bo, Z., Guo, C., Si-feng, L., A novel interval grey prediction model considering uncertain information. J Frankl Inst 350:10 (2013), 3400–3416.
    • (2013) J Frankl Inst , vol.350 , Issue.10 , pp. 3400-3416
    • Bo, Z.1    Guo, C.2    Si-feng, L.3
  • 26
    • 84872610875 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization
    • [26] Cui, J., Liu, S., Zeng, B., Xie, N., A novel grey forecasting model and its optimization. Appl Math Modell 37:6 (2013), 4399–4406.
    • (2013) Appl Math Modell , vol.37 , Issue.6 , pp. 4399-4406
    • Cui, J.1    Liu, S.2    Zeng, B.3    Xie, N.4
  • 27
    • 77249141453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A genetic algorithm based nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for output forecasting in integrated circuit industry
    • [27] Hsu, L., A genetic algorithm based nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for output forecasting in integrated circuit industry. Expert Syst Appl 37:6 (2010), 4318–4323.
    • (2010) Expert Syst Appl , vol.37 , Issue.6 , pp. 4318-4323
    • Hsu, L.1
  • 28
    • 84888290866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An alternative approach to estimating the parameters of a generalised Grey Verhulst model: an application to steel intensity of use in the UK
    • [28] Evans, M., An alternative approach to estimating the parameters of a generalised Grey Verhulst model: an application to steel intensity of use in the UK. Expert Syst Appl 41:4 (2014), 1236–1244.
    • (2014) Expert Syst Appl , vol.41 , Issue.4 , pp. 1236-1244
    • Evans, M.1
  • 29
    • 80755125913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China
    • [29] Zhao, Z., Wang, J., Zhao, J., Su, Z., Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. Omega 40:5 (2012), 525–532.
    • (2012) Omega , vol.40 , Issue.5 , pp. 525-532
    • Zhao, Z.1    Wang, J.2    Zhao, J.3    Su, Z.4
  • 30
    • 84858745881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case
    • [30] Li, D., Chang, C., Chen, C., Chen, W., Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case. Omega 40:6 (2012), 767–773.
    • (2012) Omega , vol.40 , Issue.6 , pp. 767-773
    • Li, D.1    Chang, C.2    Chen, C.3    Chen, W.4
  • 31
    • 60949083852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new grey prediction model FGM(1,1)
    • [31] Tien, T., A new grey prediction model FGM(1,1). Math Comput Modell 49:7–8 (2009), 1416–1426.
    • (2009) Math Comput Modell , vol.49 , Issue.7-8 , pp. 1416-1426
    • Tien, T.1
  • 32
    • 84896943144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model
    • [32] Wang, Y., Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model. J Syst Eng Electron 25:1 (2014), 77–82.
    • (2014) J Syst Eng Electron , vol.25 , Issue.1 , pp. 77-82
    • Wang, Y.1
  • 33
    • 84909596132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal modeling and forecasting of the energy consumption and production in China
    • [33] Xiong, P., Dang, Y., Yao, T., Wang, Z., Optimal modeling and forecasting of the energy consumption and production in China. Energy 77 (2014), 623–634.
    • (2014) Energy , vol.77 , pp. 623-634
    • Xiong, P.1    Dang, Y.2    Yao, T.3    Wang, Z.4
  • 34
    • 84977262118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model
    • [34] Zeng, B., Li, C., Forecasting the natural gas demand in China using a self-adapting intelligent grey model. Energy 112:6 (2016), 810–825.
    • (2016) Energy , vol.112 , Issue.6 , pp. 810-825
    • Zeng, B.1    Li, C.2
  • 35
    • 84962787281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A gray model with a time varying weighted generating operator
    • [35] Wu, L., Liu, S., Yang, Y., A gray model with a time varying weighted generating operator. IEEE Trans Syst Man, Cybern Syst 46:3 (2016), 427–433.
    • (2016) IEEE Trans Syst Man, Cybern Syst , vol.46 , Issue.3 , pp. 427-433
    • Wu, L.1    Liu, S.2    Yang, Y.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.