Forecasting electricity consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, neural networks and least squares support vector machines

International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems

Volumn 67, Issue , 2015, Pages 431-438

  Kaytez, Fazil ^a   Taplamacioglu, M Cengiz ^a   Cam, Ertugrul ^b   Hardalac, Firat ^a  

^a GAZI UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

^b KIRIKKALE UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

Artificial neural network; Electricity consumption forecasting; Least square support vector machines; Regression analysis

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ENERGY UTILIZATION; FORECASTING; NEURAL NETWORKS; POPULATION STATISTICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES; VECTORS;

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING; ELECTRICITY GENERATION; ELECTRICITY-CONSUMPTION; FORECASTING ELECTRICITY; LEAST SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES; LEAST SQUARES SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS; SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE (SVMS);

ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING;

EID: 84919800700     PISSN: 01420615     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2014.12.036     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. World Energy Council-Turkish National Committee (WEC-TNC), energy reports, Ankara, Turkey; 2011 [in Turkish].
2. Turkish Electricity Distribution Company (TEDAS). Annual report, Ankara, Turkey; 2009.< http://www.tedas.gov.tr/BilgiBankasi/KitaplikIstatistikiBilgiler/2009%20y%C4%B1l%C4%B1%20faaliyet%20raporu.pdf.
3. M.H. Sulaiman, M.W. Mustafa, H. Shareef, and S.N.A. Khalid An application of artificial bee colony algorithm with least squares support vector machine for real and reactive power tracing in deregulated power system Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 37 1 2012 67 77
4. B.B. Ekici A least squares support vector machine model for prediction of the next day solar insolation for effective use of PV systems Measurement 50 2014 255 262
5. S.A. Bessedik, and H. Hadi Prediction of flashover voltage of insulators using least squares support vector machine with particle swarm optimisation Electr Pow Syst Res 104 2013 87 92
6. S. Wang, L. Yu, L. Tang, and S. Wang A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China Energy 36 11 2011 6542 6554
7. R.E. Abdel-Aal, and A.Z. Al-Garni Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption in eastern Saudi Arabia using univariate time series analysis Energy 22 1997 1059 1069
8. V. Bianco, O. Manca, and S. Nardini Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models Energy 34 2009 1413 1421
9. Z. YumurtacI, and E. Asmaz Electric energy demand of Turkey for the year 2050 Energy Sources 26 2004 1157 1164
10. C.-C. Chen, Y.-C. Kuo, C.-H. Huang, and A.-P. Chen Applying market profile theory to forecast Taiwan index futures market Expert Syst Appl 41 2014 4617 4624
11. C-C. Chen, A-P. Chen, and P.-Y. Yeh Modeling and simulation of the open-end equity mutual fund market in Taiwan by using self-organizing map Simulat Model Pract Theory 36 2013 60 73
12. L. Ekonomou Greek long-term energy consumption prediction using artificial neural network Energy 35 2010 512 517
13. Z.W. Geem, and W.E. Roper Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network Energ Policy 37 2009 4049 4054
14. A. Sozen, E. Arcaklioglu, and M. Ozkaymak Turkey's net energy consumption Appl Energy 81 2005 209 221
15. A. Sozen, M.A. Akcayol, and E. Arcaklioglu Forecasting net energy consumption using artificial neural network Energy Sources Part B 1 2 2006 147 155
16. M. Kankal, A. Akpinar, M.I. Komurcu, and T.S. Ozsahin Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables Appl Energy 88 2010 1927 1939
17. H. Ceylan, and H.K. Ozturk Estimating energy demand of Turkey based on economic indicators using genetic algorithm approach Energy Convers Manage 45 2004 2525 2537
18. A. Unler Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: the case of Turkey with projections to 2025 Energ Policy 36 2008 1937 1944
19. M.D. Toksari Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of Turkey Energ Policy 35 2007 3984 3990
20. C. Hamzacebi, and H.A. Es Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model Energy 70 2014 165 171
21. K. Kavaklioglu Modeling and prediction of Turkey's electricity consumption using support vector regression Appl Energy 88 2011 368 375
22. K. Kavaklioglu Robust electricity consumption modeling of Turkey using singular value decomposition Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 54 2014 268 276
23. S. Ghosh Electricity consumption and economic growth in India Energ Policy 30 2002 125 129
24. P. Mozumder, and A. Marathe Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh Energ Policy 35 1 2007 395 402
25. A.L. Shiu, and L. Pun Electricity consumption and economic growth in China Energ Policy 32 2004 47 54
26. Y.W. Rufael Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries Energ Policy 34 2006 1106 1114
27. E. Karagol, E. Erbaykal, and H.M. Ertugrul Economic growth and electricity consumption in Turkey: a bound test approach Dogus Univ J 8 1 2007 72 80
28. G. AltInay, and E. Karagol Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey Energ Econ 27 2005 849 856
29. S.A. Kalogirou Applications of artificial neural-networks for energy systems Appl Energy 67 2000 17 35
30. A. Sozen, and E. Arcaklioglu Prediction of net energy consumption based on economic indicators (GNP and GDP) in Turkey Energ Policy 35 2007 4981 4992
31. R. Attiti First and second order methods for learning: between steepest descent and Newton's method Neural Comput 4 2 1992 141 166
32. M.T. Hagan, and M.B. Menhaj Training feed-forward networks with the Marquardt algorithm IEEE Trans Neural Network 5 6 1994 989 993
33. K. Hornik Some new results on neural network approximation Neural Networks 6 1993 1069 1072
34. R. Lippmann An introduction to computing with neural nets IEEE ASSP Mag 4 2 1987 4 22
35. J.A.K. Suykens, T. Van Gestel, J. De Brabanter, B. De Moor, and J. Vandawalle Least squares support vector machines 2002 World scientific Publishing Singapore
36. J.A.K. Suykens, and J. Vandewalle Nonlinear modeling: advanced black-box techniques 1998 Kluwer Academic Publishers Boston 55 85
37. J. Mercer Function of positive and negative type and their connection with the theory of integral equations Philos Trans Roy Soc A 209 1909 415 446
38. C. Campbell An introduction to Kernel methods radial basis function network: design and applications 2000 Springer Berlin 1 31
39. I. Shuhaida, S. Ani, and S. Ruhaidah A hybrid model of self-organizing maps (SOM) and least square support vector machine (LSSVM) for time-series forecasting Expert Syst Appl 38 2011 10574 10578
40. P. Xinjun, and W. Yifei A normal least squares support vector machine (NLS-SVM) and its learning algorithm Neurocomputing 72 2009 3734 3741
41. Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TETC). Turkey Electricity Statistic 2010, Ankara, Turkey; 2012. < http://www.teias.gov.tr/TürkiyeElektrik̄statistikleri/istatistik2010/̄statistik%202010.htm >.
42. Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TETC). Turkish Electrical Energy 10-Year GenerationCapacityProjection, Ankara, Turkey; 2009. < http://www.teias.gov.tr/Eng/ApkProjection/CAPACITY%20PROJECTION%202009-2018.pdf >.
43. Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TETC). Annual development of Turkey's gross electricity generation-imports-exports and demand, Ankara, Turkey; 2012. < http://www.teias.gov.tr/TürkiyeElektrik̄statistikleri/istatistik2009/index.htm >.
44. Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT). Population, annual population growth rate and projections, Ankara, Turkey; 2009. < http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?alt-id=39 >.
45. Turkish Electricity Distribution Company (TEDC). Turkey Distribution Statistics, Ankara, Turkey; 2009. < http://www.tedas.gov.tr/istatistik2009 >.
46. D.C. Hanselman, and B. Littlefield Mastering MATLAB® 2005 Pearson Prentice Hall New Jersey
47. Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (TETC). Turkish electrical energy 10-year generation capacity projection 2008-2017, Ankara, Turkey; 2008. < http://www.teias.gov.tr /Eng/ApkProjection/Capacity%20Projection%202008-2017.pdf >.