Nitrogen use in the global food system: Past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 9, 2016, Pages

  Lassaletta, Luis ^a,b   Billen, Gilles ^b   Garnier, Josette ^b   Bouwman, Lex ^a,c   Velazquez, Eduardo ^d,e   Mueller, Nathaniel D ^f   Gerber, James S ^g  

^a PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^b SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

^c UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^d HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^e UNIVERSIDAD DE MAGALLANES   (Chile)

^f HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

Author keywords

cropping and livestock systems; human diet; international trade; nitrogen use efficiency; past trends and scenarios; protein; world agro food system

Indexed keywords

ANIMALS; BYPRODUCTS; CROPS; CULTIVATION; EFFICIENCY; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; NITROGEN; POLLUTION; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

AGRO FOODS; HUMAN DIET; LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS; NITROGEN-USE EFFICIENCY; PAST TRENDS AND SCENARIOS;

PROTEINS;

AGRONOMY; BIOENERGY; CROP PRODUCTION; FOOD AVAILABILITY; GLOBAL TRADE; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; LIVESTOCK FARMING; NITROGEN; NUTRIENT USE EFFICIENCY; POLLUTION INCIDENCE; PROTEIN; SUSTAINABILITY;

AFRICA; CHINA; EUROPE; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 84992045222     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095007     Document Type: Article

References (65)

1. Anglade J, Billen G and Garnier J 2015 Relationships for estimating N2 fixation in legumes: incidence for N balance of legume-based cropping systems in Europe. Ecosphere 6 art37
2. Bai Z H, Ma L, Qin W, Chen Q, Oenema O and Zhang F S 2014 Changes in pig production in China and their effects on nitrogen and phosphorus use and losses Environ. Sci. Technol. 48 12742-9
3. Billen G, Garnier J and Lassaletta L 2013 The nitrogen cascade from agricultural soils to the sea: modelling nitrogen transfers at regional watershed and global scales Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368 20130123
4. Billen G, Lassaletta L and Garnier J 2014 A biogeochemical view of the global agro-food system: nitrogen flows associated with protein production, consumption and trade Glob. Food Secur. 3 209-19
5. Billen G, Lassaletta L and Garnier J 2015 A vast range of opportunities for feeding the world in 2050: trade-off between diet, N contamination and international trade Environ. Res. Lett. 10 025001
6. Bodirsky B L, Popp A, Weindl I, Dietrich J P, Rolinski S, Scheiffele L, Schmitz C and Lotze-Campen H 2012 N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle - current state and future scenarios Biogeosciences 9 4169-97
7. Bodirsky B L et al 2014 Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution Nat. Commun. 5 3858
8. Bodirsky B L and Popp A 2015 Sustainability: Australia at the crossroads Nature 527 40-1
9. Bouwman A F, Boumans L J M and Batjes N H 2002 Estimation of global NH3 volatilization loss from synthetic fertilizers and animal manure applied to arable lands and grasslands Glob. Biogeochem. Cy. 16
10. Bouwman A F, Lee D S, Asman W A H, Dentener F J, Van der Hoek K W and Olivier J G J 1997 A global high-resolution emission inventory for ammonia Glob. Biogeochem. Cy. 11 561-87
11. Bouwman A F, Van der Hoek K W, Eickhout B and Soenario I 2005 Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems Agric. Sys. 84 121-53
12. Bouwman L, Goldewijk K K, Van Der Hoek K W, Beusen A H W, Van Vuuren D P, Willems J, Rufino M C and Stehfest E 2013a Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900-2050 period Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110 20882-7
13. Bouwman L, Beusen A, Glibert P M, Overbeek C, Pawlowski M, Herrera J, Mulsow S, Yu R and Zhou M 2013b Mariculture: significant and expanding cause of coastal nutrient enrichment Environ. Res. Lett. 8 044026
14. Burgess R and Donalson D 2010 Can openness mitigate the effects of weather shocks? Evidence from India's famine era Am. Econ. Rev. 100 449-53
15. Cassidy E S, West P C, Gerber J S and Foley J A 2013 Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034015
16. Davis K F and D'Odorico P 2015 Livestock intensification and the influence of dietary change: a calorie-based assessment of competition for crop production Sci. Total Environ. 538 817-23
17. Davis K F, Yu K, Herrero M, Havlik P, Carr J A and D'Odorico P 2015 Historical trade-offs of livestock's environmental impacts Environ. Res. Lett. 10 125013
18. Dentener F et al 2006 Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: a multimodel evaluation Glob. Biogeochem. Cy. 20 GB4003
19. de Ruiter H, Macdiarmid J I, Matthews R B, Kastner T and Smith P 2016 Global cropland and greenhouse gas impacts of UK food supply are increasingly located overseas J. R. Soc. Interface in press
20. D'Odorico P, Laio F and Ridolfi L 2010 Does globalization of water reduce societal resilience to drought? 37 L13403
21. Erb K-H, Lauk C, Kastner T, Mayer A, Theurl M C and Haberl H 2016 Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation Nat. Commun. 7 11382
22. Fader M, Dieter Gerten D, Krause M, Lucht W and Cramer W 2013 Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014046
23. FAO 2012 FAOSTAT Database Collections (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (http://faostat.fao.org/)
24. Fowler D et al 2013 The global nitrogen cycle in the twenty-first century Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 368 20130164
25. Fry J P, Love D C, MacDonald G K, West P C, Engstrom P M, Nachman K E and Lawrence R S 2016 Environmental health impacts of feeding crops to farmed fish Environ. Int. 91 201-14
26. Galloway J N et al 2007 International trade in meat: the tip of the pork chop Ambio 36 622-9
27. Godfray H C J, Beddington J R, Crute I R, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir J F, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas S M and Toulmin C 2010 Food Security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people Science 327 812-8
28. Gustavson J, Cederberg C and Sonesson U 2011 Global Food Losses and Food Wastes (Rome: FAO)
29. Kastner T, Rivas M J I, Koch W and Nonhebel S 2012 Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 6868-72
30. Kastner T, Erb K-H and Haberl H 2014 Rapid growth in agricultural trade: effects on global area efficiency and the role of management Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034015
31. Lamb A et al 2016 The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture Nat. Clim. Change 6 488-92
32. Lassaletta L, Billen G, Grizzetti B, Anglade J and Garnier J 2014a 50 year trends in nitrogen use efficiency of world cropping systems: the relationship between yield and nitrogen input to cropland Environ. Res. Lett. 9 105011
33. Lassaletta L, Billen G, Grizzetti B, Garnier J, Leach A M and Galloway J N 2014b Food and feed trade as a driver in the global nitrogen cycle: 50-year trends Biogeochemistry 118 225-41
34. Lassaletta L, Aguilera E, Sanz-Cobena A, Pardo G, Billen G, Garnier J and Grizzetti B 2016 Leakage of nitrous oxide emissions within the Spanish agro-food system in 1961-2009 Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 21 975-94
35. Leip A et al 2015 Impacts of European livestock production: nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and greenhouse gas emissions, land-use, water eutrophication and biodiversity Environ. Res. Lett. 10 115004
36. Lotze-Campen H, Muller C, Bondeau A, Rost S, Popp A and Lucht W 2008 Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach Agr. Econ. 39 325-38
37. Lotze-Campen H, Popp A, Beringer T, Muller C, Bondeau A, Rost S and Lucht W 2010 Scenarios of global bioenergy production: the trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade Ecol. Model 221 2188-96
38. MacDonald G K, Bennett E M, Potter P A and Ramankutty N 2011 Agronomic phosphorus imbalances across the world's croplands Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 3086-91
39. MacDonald G K, Brauman K A, Sun S, Carlson K M, Cassidy E S, Gerber J S and West P C 2015 Rethinking agricultural trade relationships in an Era of globalization BioScience 65 275-89
40. Mueller N D, Gerber J S, Johnston M, Ray D K, Ramankutty N and Foley J A 2012 Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management Nature 490 254-7
41. Mueller N D, West P C, Gerber J S, MacDonald G K, Polasky S and Foley J A 2014 A tradeoff frontier for global nitrogen use and cereal production Environ. Res. Lett. 9 054002
42. Niedertscheider M, Kastner T, Fetzel T, Haberl H, Kroisleitner C, Plutzar C and Erb K H 2016 Mapping and analysing cropland use intensity from a NPP perspective Environ. Res. Lett. 11 014008
43. Oita A, Malik A, Kanemoto K, Geschke A, Nishijima S and Lenzen M 2016 Substantial nitrogen pollution embedded in international trade Nat. Geosci. 9 111-5
44. O'Neill B C et al 2015 The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century Glob. Environ. Change in press
45. Paris Q 1992 The return of von Liebig law of the minimum Agron. J. 84 1040-6
46. Porkka M, Kummu M, Siebert S and Varis O 2013 From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability PLoS One 8 e82714
47. Rulli M and D'Odorico P 2014 Food appropriation through large scale land acquisitions Environ. Res. Lett. 9 064030
48. Schmitz C, Biewald A, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A, Dietrich J P, Bodirsky B, Krause M and Weindl I 2012 Trading more food: implications for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and the food system Glob. Environ. Change 22 189-209
49. Sobota D J, Compton J E, McCrackin M L and Singh S 2015 Cost of reactive nitrogen release from human activities to the environment in the United States Environ. Res. Lett. 10 025006
50. Stehfest E et al 2014 Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0 Model Description and Policy Applications (The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
51. Strokal M, Ma L, Bai Z, Luan S, Kroeze C, Oenema O, Velthof G and Zhang F 2016 Alarming nutrient pollution of Chinese rivers as a result of agricultural transitions Environ. Res. Lett. 11 024014
52. Sutton M A et al 2013 Our nutrient world The Challenge to Produce More Food and Energy with Less Pollution (Edinburgh: UNEP)
53. Suweis S, Carr J A, Maritan A, Rinaldo A and D'Odorico P 2015 Resilience and reactivity of global food security Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112 6902-7
54. Swaney D P, Hong B, Ti C, Howarth R W and Humborg C 2012 Net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs to watersheds and riverine N export to coastal waters: a brief overview Curr. Opin. Env. Sust. 4 203-11
55. Tacon A G J and Metian M 2008 Global overview on the use of fish meal and fish oil in industrially compounded aquafeeds: trends and future prospects Aquaculture 285 146-58
56. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2011 World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive TablesST/ESA/SER.A/313
57. Valin H et al 2014 The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models Agr. Econ. 45 51-67
58. Van Grinsven H J M, Holland M, Jacobsen B H, Klimont Z, Sutton M A and Willems W J 2013 Costs and benefits of nitrogen for europe and implications for mitigation Environ. Sci. Tech. 47 3571-9
59. van Grinsven H J M, Bouwman L, Cassman K G, van Es H M, McCrackin M L and Beusen A H W 2015 Losses of ammonia and nitrate from agriculture and their effect on nitrogen recovery in the european union and the united states between 1900 and 2050 J. Environ. Qual. 44 356-67
60. van Vuuren D P et al 2016 Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm Glob. Environ. Change in press
61. Vitousek P M et al 2009 Nutrient imbalances in agricultural development Science 324 1519-20
62. Westhoek H et al 2015 Nitrogen on the table: the influence of food choices on nitrogen emissions and the European environment European Nitrogen Assessment Special Report on Nitrogen and Food. (Edinburgh, UK: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)
63. WHO 2007 Protein and amino acid requirements in human nutrition WHO Technical Report Series 935
64. Zhang X, Davidson E A, Mauzerall D L, Searchinger T D, Dumas P and Shen Y 2015 Managing nitrogen for sustainable development Nature 528 51-9
65. Zumkehr A and Campbell J E 2015 The potential for local croplands to meet US food demand Front. Ecol. Environ. 13 244-8