Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

Environmental Modelling and Software

Volumn 86, Issue , 2016, Pages 168-183

  Kwakkel, Jan H ^a   Haasnoot, Marjolijn ^a,b   Walker, Warren E ^a  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^b DELTARES   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Adaptation pathways; Deep uncertainty; Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways; Flexibility; Robust Decision making; Robustness; Scenario discovery

Indexed keywords

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS; ROBUSTNESS (CONTROL SYSTEMS);

ADAPTATION PATHWAYS; DEEP UNCERTAINTIES; DYNAMIC-ADAPTIVE; FLEXIBILITY; ROBUST DECISIONS; SCENARIO DISCOVERY;

DECISION MAKING;

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; COMPARATIVE STUDY; DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING; POLICY APPROACH; SCENARIO ANALYSIS; TRADE-OFF; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VULNERABILITY;

NETHERLANDS; RHINE DELTA;

EID: 84991486853     PISSN: 13648152     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.017     Document Type: Article

References (89)

1. Auping, W., Pruyt, E., Kwakkel, J.H., Societal ageing in The Netherlands: a robust system dynamics approach. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 32:4 (2015), 485–501.
2. Bai, D., Carpenter, T., Mulvey, J., Making a case for robust optimization models. Manag. Sci. 43:7 (1997), 895–907.
3. Bankes, S.C., Exploratory modeling for policy analysis. Oper. Res. 4:3 (1993), 435–449.
4. Bankes, S.C., Walker, W.E., Kwakkel, J.H., Exploratory modeling and analysis. Gass, S., Fu, M.C., (eds.) Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, third ed., 2013, Springer, Berlin, Germany.
5. Beh, E.H.Y., Maier, H.R., Dandy, G.C., Adaptive, multiobjective optimal sequencing approach for urban water supply augmentation under deep uncertainty. Water Resour. Res. 51:3 (2015), 1529–1551.
6. Ben Haim, Y., Information-Gap Decision Theory: Decision under Severe Uncertainty. second ed., 2006, Academic Press, London, UK.
7. Ben-Tal, A., Nemirovski, A., Robust convex optimization. Math. Oper. Res. 23:4 (1998), 769–805.
8. Ben-Tal, A., Nemirovski, A., Robust solutions of linear programming problems contaminated with uncertain data. Math. Program. 88:3 (2000), 411–424.
9. Bertsimas, D., Sim, M., The price of robustness. Oper. Res. 52:1 (2004), 35–53.
10. Bloom, E.W., Changing Midstream: Providing Decision Support for Adaptive Strategies Using Robust Decision Making. 2015, Pardee RAND graduate school.
11. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., Decision scaling: linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour. Res. 48:9 (2012), 1–12.
12. Bryant, B.P., Lempert, R.J., Thinking inside the Box: a participatory computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 2010, 34–49.
13. Dalal, S., Han, B., Lempert, R., Jaycocks, A., Hackbarth, A., Improving scenario discovery using orthogonal rotations. Environ. Model. Softw. 48 (2013), 49–64.
14. De Bruijn, K., Bepalen van schade ten gevolge van overstromingen voor verschillende scenario's en bij verschillende beleidsopties (determining flood damage for different scenarios and policy options). 2008, Deltares, Delft.
15. de Neufville, R., Scholtes, S., Flexibility in Engineering Design. 2011, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
16. Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: a case study on water resources management in the East of England. Glob. Environ. Change 17 (2007), 59–72.
17. Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R.J., Pielke jr, R., Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate?. EOS 90:13 (2009), 111–112.
18. Dewar, J.A., Assumption-based Planning: a Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises. 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
19. Dewar, J.A., Builder, C.H., Hix, W.M., Levin, M.H., Assumption-Based Planning: a Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times. 1993, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
20. Friedman, J.H., Fisher, N.I., Bump hunting in high-dimensional data. Stat. Comput. 9:2 (1999), 123–143.
21. Gersonius, B., Ashley, R., Jeuken, A., Pathinara, A., Zevenbergen, C., Accounting for uncertainty and flexibility in flood risk management: comparing Real-In-Options optimisation and Adaptation Tipping Points. J. Flood Risk Manag. 8 (2015), 135–144.
22. Gersonius, B., Ashley, R., Pathirana, A., Zevenbergen, C., Climate change uncertainty: building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure. Clim. Change, 116, 2013, 411.
23. Groves, D.G., Bloom, E., Lempert, R.J., Fischbach, J.R., Nevills, J., Goshi, B., Developing key indicators for adaptive water planning. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., 141(7), 2014, 05014008.
24. Groves, D.G., Fischbach, J.R., Bloom, E., Knopman, D., Keefe, R., Adapting to a Changing Colorado River: Making Future Water Deliveries More Reliable through Robust Management Strategies. 2013, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
25. Groves, D.G., Lempert, R.J., A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change 17:1 (2007), 73–85.
26. Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., Ter Maat, J., Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a new method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob. Environ. Change 23:2 (2013), 485–498.
27. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A., Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Clim. Change 115:3–4 (2012), 795–819.
28. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., Offermans, A., van Deursen, W.P.A., A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future. Sustain. Dev., 19(6), 2011.
29. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Van Beek, E., Van Deursen, W.P.A., A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future. Sustain. Dev. 19 (2011), 369–381.
30. Haasnoot, M., Schellekens, J., Beersma, J.J., Middelkoop, H., Kwadijk, J.C.J., Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands. Environ. Res. Lett., 10(10), 2015, 105008.
31. Haasnoot, M., van Deursen, W.P.A., Guillaume, J.H.A., Kwakkel, J.H., van Beek, E., Middelkoop, H., Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways. Environ. Model. Softw. 60 (2014), 99–120.
32. Hadka, D., Herman, J.D., Reed, P.M., Keller, K., OpenMORDM: an open source framework for many objective robust decision making. Environ. Model. Softw. 74 (2015), 114–129.
33. Hadka, D., Reed, P.M., Borg: an auto-adaptive many-objective evolutionary computing framework. Evol. Comput. 21:2 (2013), 231–259.
34. Halim, R.A., Kwakkel, J.H., Tavasszy, L.A., A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports. Futures 81 (2016), 148–169.
35. Hall, J.W., Lempert, R.J., Keller, A., Hackbarth, A., Mijere, C., McInerney, D., Robust climate policies under uncertainty: a comparison of robust decision making and info-gap methods. Risk Anal. 32:10 (2012), 1527–1672.
36. Hallegatte, S., Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Change 19 (2009), 240–247.
37. Hallegatte, S., Shah, A., Lempert, R., Brown, C., Gill, S., Investment Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: Application to Climate Change. 2012, The World Bank.
38. Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J.H., Pruyt, E., Adaptive robust design under deep uncertainty. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 80:3 (2013), 408–418.
39. Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J.H., Pruyt, E., Loonen, E., An exploratory approach for adaptive policymaking by using multi-objective robust optimization. Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 46 (2014), 25–39.
40. Herman, J.D., Reed, P.M., Zeff, H.B., Characklis, G.W., How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., 141(10), 2015.
41. Kasprzyk, J.R., Nataraj, S., Reed, P.M., Lempert, R.J., Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change. Environ. Model. Softw. 42 (2013), 55–71.
42. Korteling, B., Dessai, S., Kapelan, Z., Using information-gap decision theory for water resources planning under severe uncertainty. Water Resour. Manag., 27, 2013.
43. Kouvalis, P., Yu, G., Robust Discrete Optimization and its Application. 1997, Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.
44. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M., Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in The Netherlands. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 1:5 (2010), 729–740.
45. Kwakkel, J.H., Auping, W.L., Pruyt, E., Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: the future of copper. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 80:4 (2013), 789–800.
46. Kwakkel, J.H., Haasnoot, M., Walker, W.E., Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Clim. Change 132:3 (2015), 373–386.
47. Kwakkel, J.H., Jaxa-Rozen, M., Improving scenario discovery for handling heterogeneous uncertainties and multinomial classified outcomes. Environ. Model. Softw., 79, 2016.
48. Kwakkel, J.H., Pruyt, E., Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 80:3 (2013), 419–431.
49. Kwakkel, J.H., Pruyt, E., Using system dynamics for grand challenges: the ESDMA approach. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 32:3 (2015), 358–375.
50. Kwakkel, J.H., van der Pas, J.W.G.M., Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: an analogy with medicine. Futures 43:9 (2011), 934–946.
51. Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J., Adaptive airport strategic planning. Eur. J. Transp. Infrastruct. Res. 10:3 (2010), 227–250.
52. Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J., Assessing the efficacy of adaptive airport strategic planning: results from computational experiments. Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des. 39:3 (2012), 533–550.
53. Lempert, R.J., A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 99:3 (2002), 7309–7313.
54. Lempert, R.J., Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis. 2003, Rand Corporation.
55. Lempert, R.J., Collins, M., Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal. 24:4 (2007), 1009–1026.
56. Lempert, R.J., Groves, D.G., Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the american west. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77:6 (2010), 960–974.
57. Lempert, R.J., Kalra, N., Peyraud, S., Mao, Z., Tan, S.B., Cira, D., Lotsch, A., Ensuring Robust Flood Risk Management in Ho Chi Minh City. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6465, 2013.
58. Lempert, R.J., Popper, S., Bankes, S., Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long Term Policy Analysis. 2003, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
59. LeRoy Poff, N., Brown, C., Grantham, T.E., Matthews, J.H., Palmer, M.A., Spence, C.M., Wilby, R.L., Haasnoot, M., Mendoza, G.F., Dominique, K.C., Baeza, A., Sustainable water management under future uncertainty with eco-engineering decision scaling. Nat. Clim. Change, 2015 (Advanced Online Publication).
60. Maier, H.R., Guillaume, J.H.A., van Delden, H., Riddell, G.A., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: how do they fit together?. Environ. Model. Softw. 81 (2016), 154–164.
61. Maru, Y.T., Stafford Smith, M., GEC special edition – reframing adaptation pathways. Glob. Environ. Change, 28, 2014.
62. Matrosov, E.S., Padula, S., Harou, J.J., Selecting portfolios of water supply and demand management strategies under uncertainty - contrasting economic optimisation and 'robust decision making' approaches. Water Resour. Manag. 27:4 (2013), 1123–1148.
63. Matrosov, E.S., Woords, A.M., Harou, J.J., Robust decision making and info-gap decision theory for water resource system planning. (28 June 2013) J. Hydrol. 494 (2013), 43–58.
64. McKay, M.D., Beckman, R.J., Conover, W.J., A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 21:2 (1979), 239–245.
65. Mulvey, J., Vanderbei, R.J., Zenios, S.A., Robust optimization of large-scale systems. Oper. Res. 43:2 (1995), 264–281.
66. Offermans, A., Perspectives Method: Towards Socially Robust River Management. 2012, International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable Development University of Maastricht, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
67. Parker, A.M., Srinivasan, S.V., Lempert, R.J., Berry, S.H., Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support. (February) Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 91 (2015), 64–77.
68. Pruyt, E., Kwakkel, J.H., Radicalization under deep uncertainty: a multi-model exploration of activism, extremism and terrorism. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 30:1–2 (2014), 1–28.
69. Ray, P.A., Watkins, D.W., Vogel, R.M., Kirshen, P.H., Performance-based evaluation of an improved robust optimization formulation. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., 140(6), 2013.
70. Reed, P.M., Hadka, D., Herman, J.D., Kasprzyk, J.R., Kollat, J.B., Evolutionary multiobjective optimization in water resources: the past, present, and future. Adv. Water Resour. 51 (2013), 438–456.
71. Roach, T., Kapelan, Z., Ledbetter, R., Comparison of info-gap and robust optimisation methods for integrated water resource management under severe uncertainty. Proced. Eng. 119 (2015), 874–883.
72. Roach, T., Kapelan, Z., Ledbetter, R., ledbetter, M., Comparison of robust optimization and info-gap methods for water resource management under deep uncertainty. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag., 142(9), 2016.
73. Rosenhead, J., Elton, M., Gupta, S.K., Robustness and optimality as criteria for strategic decisions. Oper. Res. Q. 23:4 (1973), 413–431.
74. Starr, M.K., Product Design and Decision Theory. 1963, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
75. Thissen, W.A.H., Kwakkel, J.H., Mens, M.J.P., van der Sluijs, J., Stemberger, S., Wardekker, J.A., Wildschut, D., Dealing with uncertainties in fresh water supply: experiences in The Netherlands. Water Resour. Manag., 142(3), 2016.
76. UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR), The Economics of Balancing Supply and Demand (ESBD) Guidelines. 2002.
77. van den Hurk, B., Tank, A.K., Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Katsman, C., van den Brink, H., Keller, F., Bessembinder, J., Burgers, G., Komen, G., Hazeleger, W., Drijfhout, S., New climate change scenarios for The Netherlands. Water Sci. Technol. 56:4 (2007), 27–33.
78. van den Hurk, B., Tank, A.K., Lenderink, G., van Ulden, A., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Katsman, C., van den Brink, H., Keller, F., Bessembinder, J., Burgers, G., Komen, G., Hazeleger, W., Drijfhout, S., KNMI Climate Change Scenarios 2006 for The Netherlands., 2008, KNMI [Royal Netherlands Metereological Institute], de Bilt, the Netherlands pp. KNMI Scientific Report WR 2006–2001.
79. van Deursen, W.P.A., Geographical Information Systems and Dynamic Models. 1995, Utrecht University, Utrecht.
80. van Velzen, E.H., Basisinformatie voor de kengetallen kosten-batenanalyse wv21. (information for the cost-benefit analysis of water safety 21st century). 2008, Deltares, Delft.
81. Verschuren, P., Hartog, R., Evaluation in design-oriented research. Qual. Quant. 39 (2005), 733–762.
82. Wald, A., Statistical decision functions which minimize the maximum risk. Ann. Math. 46:2 (1945), 265–280.
83. Walker, W.E., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Adapt or perish: a review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty. Sustainability 5:3 (2013), 955–979.
84. Walker, W.E., Rahman, S.A., Cave, J., Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policymaking. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 128:2 (2001), 282–289.
85. Walls, J.G., Widmeyer, G.R., El Sawy, O.A., Building an information systems design theory for vigilant EIS. Inf. Syst. Res. 3:1 (1992), 35–59.
86. Walls, J.G., Widmeyer, G.R., El Sawy, O.A., Assessing information system design theory in perspective: how useful was our 1992 initial rendition?. J. Inf. Technol. Theory Appl. 6:2 (2004), 43–58.
87. Weaver, C.P., Lempert, R.J., Brown, C., Hall, J.W., Revell, D., Sarewitz, D., Improving the contribution of climate model information to decision making: the value and demands of robust decision making frameworks. WIREs Clim. Change 4 (2013), 39–60.
88. Wise, R.M., Fazey, I., Stafford Smith, M., Park, S.E., Eakin, H.C., Archer van Garderen, E.R.M., Campbell, B., Reconceptualizing adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob. Environ. Change, 28, 2014.
89. Woodward, M., Kapelan, Z., Gouldby, B., Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using real options and optimization. Risk Anal. 34:1 (2014), 75–92.