Evaluation of infrastructure planning approaches: An analogy with medicine

Futures

Volumn 43, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 934-946

  Kwakkel, Jan H ^a   Van Der Pas, Jan Willem G M ^a  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING; MEDICINE; PLANNING PRACTICE;

EID: 80052023373     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2011.06.003     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Volkery A., Ribeiro T. Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2009, 76:1198-1207.
2. Lempert R.J., Popper S., Bankes S. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long Term Policy Analysis 2003, RAND, Santa Monica.
3. Walker W.E., Marchau V.A.W.J., Swanson D. Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: introduction to section 2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:917-923.
4. de Neufville R. Real options: dealing with uncertainty in systems planning and design. Integrated Assessment 2003, 4:26-34.
5. Dewar J.A. Assumption-based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises 2002, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
6. Ben-Haim Y. Information-gap Decision Theory: Decisions under Severe Uncertainty 2006, Wiley, New York. 2nd ed.
7. Quade E.S. Analysis for Public Decisions 1982, Elsevier Science Publishing Co. Inc., New York. 2nd ed.
8. Dempsey P.S., Goetz A.R., Szyliowicz J.S. Denver International Airport: Lessons Learned 1997, McGraw-Hill, New York.
9. Marchau V.A.W.J., Walker W.E., van Duin R. An adaptive approach to implementing innovative urban transport solutions. Transport Policy 2009, 15:405-412.
10. Van Geenhuizen M., Reggiani A., Rietveld P. New trends in policymaking for transport and regional network integration. Policy Analysis of Transport Networks 2007, 1-16. Ashgate, Alsdershot. M. Van Geenhuizen, A. Reggiani, P. Rietvelt (Eds.).
11. van Geenhuizen M., Thissen W.A.H. A framework for identifying and qualifying uncertainty in policy making: the case of intelligent transport systems. Policy Analysis of Transport Networks 2007, 101-118. Ashgate, Alsdershot. M. Van Geenhuizen, A. Reggiani, P. Rietvelt (Eds.).
12. Swanson D., Barg S., Tyler S., Venema H., Tomar S., Bhadwal S., Nair S., Roy D., Drexhage J. Seven tools for creating adaptive policies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:924-939.
13. Agusdinata D.B. Exploratory Modeling and Analysis: A Promising Method to Deal with Deep Uncertainty 2008, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft.
14. Kahan J.P., Botterman M., Cave J., Robinson N., Shoob R., Thomson R., Valeri L. Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention: Gaining Insight from Three Different Futures, in Prepared for Foresight Directorate 2004, Office of Science and Technology, UK.
15. Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., van der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37:795-812.
16. Varum C.A., Melo C. Directions in scenario planning literature - a review of the past decades. Futures 2010, 42:355-369.
17. Goodwin P., Wright G. The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:355-368.
18. Albrechts L. Strategic (spatial) planning reexamined. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 2004, 31:743-758.
19. Walker W.E., Rahman S.A., Cave J. Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policymaking,. European Journal of Operational Research 2001, 128:282-289.
20. Hansman R.J., Magee C., De Neufville R., Robins R., Roos D. Research agenda for an integrated approach to infrastructure planning, design, and management. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures 2006, 2:146-159.
21. Dewar J.A., Builder C.H., Hix W.M., Levin M.H. Assumption-Based Planning: A Planning Tool for Very Uncertain Times 1993, RAND, Santa Monica.
22. McDaniel R.R., Driebe D.J. Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems: Questions on Working the Unexpected 2005, Springer.
23. Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition 2003, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
24. Ascher W. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners 1978, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
25. Porter A.L., Roper A.T., Mason T.W., Rossini F.A., Banks J. Forecasting and Management of Technology 1991, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
26. Kristóf T. Is it possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences. Futures 2006, 28:561-574.
27. Batty M., Torrens P.M. Modelling and prediction in acomplex world. Futures 2005, 37:745-766.
28. Popper S., Griffin J., Berrebi C., Light T., Min E.Y. Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future: A Strategic Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty 2009, RAND, Santa Monica, California.
29. Lempert R.J. A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 2002, 99:7309-7313.
30. de Neufville R. Dynamic strategic planning for technology policy. International Journal of Technology Management 2000, 19:225-245.
31. Lempert R.J., Groves D.G. Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American West. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:960-974.
32. I.I.S.D. Designing Policies in a World of Uncertainty, Change and Surprise - Adaptive Policy-Making for Agriculture and Water Resources in the Face of Climate Change - Phase I Research Report 2006, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg.
33. Dewey J. The Public and its Problems 1927, Holt and Company, New York.
34. Busenberg G.J. Learning in organizations and public policy. Journal of Public Policy 2001, 21:173-189.
35. Holling C.S. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management 1978, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
36. McLain R.J., Lee R.G. Adaptive management: promises and pitfalls. Environmental Management 1996, 20:437-448.
37. Lee K. Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment 1993, Island Press, Washington.
38. Collingridge D. The Social Control of Technology 1980, Frances Pinter Publisher, London, UK.
39. Kwakkel J.H., Walker W.E., Marchau V.A.W.J. Adaptive airport strategic planning. European Journal of Transportation and Infrastructure Research 2010, 10:227-250.
40. de Neufville R., Odoni A. Airport Systems: Planning, Design and Management 2003, McGraw-Hill, New York.
41. Burghouwt G. Airline Network Development in Europe and its Implications for Airport Planning 2007, Ashgate Publishing Company, Burlington, Vermont.
42. Marchau V.A.W.J., Walker W.E. Dealing with uncertainty in implementing advanced driver assistance systems: an adaptive approach. Integrated Assessment 2003, 4:35-45.
43. Pahl-Wostl C., Moltgen J., Sendzimir J., Kabat P. New methods for adaptive water management under uncertainty - the NeWater Project. EWRA Conference 2005.
44. Pahl-Wostl C., Sendzimir J., Jeffrey P., Aerts J., Berkamp G., Cross K. Managing change towards adaptive water management through social learning. Ecology and Society 2007, 12:30. [online].
45. Wardekker J.A., de Jong A., Knoop J.M., Van der Sluijs J.P. Operationalising a resilience approach to adapting an urban delta to uncertain climate changes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:987-998.
46. Dessai S., Hulme M., Lempert R. Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate?. EOS 2009, 90:111-112.
47. McCray L.E., Oye K.A., Petersen A.C. Planned adaptation in risk regulation: an initial survey of US environmental health, and safety regulation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2010, 77:951-959.
48. Frey D.D., Dym C.L. Validation of design methods: lessons from medicine. Research in Engineering Design 2006, 17:45-57.
49. Walls J.G., Widmeyer G.R., El Sawy O.A. Building an information systems design theory for vigilant EIS. Information Systems Research 1992, 3:35-59.
50. Walls J.G., Widmeyer G.R., El Sawy O.A. Assessing information system design theory in perspective: how useful was our 1992 initial rendition?. Journal of Information Technology Theory and Application 2004, 6:43-58.
51. Verschuren P., Hartog R. Evaluation in design-oriented research. Quality and Quantity 2005, 39:733-762.
52. Kuechler B., Vaishnavi V. On theory development in design science research: anatomy of a research project. European Journal of Information Systems 2008, 17:489-504.
53. Gregor S., Jones D. The anatomy of a design theory. Journal of the Association for Information Systems 2007, 8:312-335.
54. Simon H.A. The Sciences of the Artificial 1996, The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. 3rd ed.
55. Bankes S. Exploratory modeling for policy analysis. Operations Research 1993, 4:435-449.
56. Hodges J.S. Six (or so) things you can do with a bad model. Operations Research 1991, 39:355-365.
57. Hodges J.S., Dewar J.A. Is it You or Your Model Talking? A Framework for Model Validation 1992, RAND, Santa Monica.
58. Dewar J.A., Wachs M. Transportation planning, climate change, and decisionmaking under uncertainty. Proceedings of the Workshop Conference on Climate Change and the US Transportation 2006.
59. Bankes S., Lempert R., Popper S. Making computational social science effective. Social Science Computer Review 2002, 20:377-388.
60. Bankes S. Models as lab equipment: science from computational experiments. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory 2009, 15:8-10.
61. Mayer I.S., Veeneman W. Games in a World of Infrastructures 2002, Eburon Publishers, Delft, the Netherlands.
62. Schön D.A. The Reflective Practioner 1983, Basic Books, New York.
63. Hill A.B. The environment and disease: association or causation. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine 1966, 58:295-300.
64. Glass G.V. Primary, secondary and meta-analysis of research. Educational Researcher 1976, 5:3-8.
65. DerSimonian R., Laird N.M. Meta-analysis in clinical trials. Controlled Clinical Trials 1986, 7:177-188.
66. Poot J. A synthesis of empirical research on the impact of government on long-run growth. Growth and Change 2000, 31:516-546.
67. U.S.Department of Health and Human Services - Food and Drug Administration Guidance for Industry - Providing Clinical Evidence of Effectiveness for Human Drugs and Biological Products 1998, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services - Food and Drug Administration.
68. European Medicines Agency Note for Guidance on Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials 1998, European Medicines Agency.
69. Lee K. Appraissing adaptive management. Conservation Ecology 1999, 3:3.
70. Weiss C. Evaluation research in the political context. Handbook of Evaluation Research 1975, 13-26. Sage Publication Inc. E.L. Struening, Guttentag (Eds.).
71. Vreugdenhil H., Slinger J., Thissen W., Ker Rault P. Pilot projects in water management. Ecology and Society 2010, 15(3):13. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol15/iss3/art13/.
72. Hoogma R., Kemp R., Schot J., Truffer B. Experimenting for sustainable transport. The approach of strategic Niche management 2002, Spon Press, London.
73. Raven R.P.J.M. Niche accumulation and hybridisation strategies in transition processes towards a sustainable energy system: an assessment of differences and pitfalls. Energy Policy 2007, 35:2390-2400.
74. Rogers E. Diffusion of Innovation 2003, The Free Press, New York. 5th ed.
75. Thissen W.A.H., Twaalfhoven P.G.J. Towards a conceptual structure for evaluating policy analytic activities. European Journal of Operational Research 2001, 129:627-679.
76. Botterhuis L., van der Duin P., de Ruijter P., van Wijck P. Monitoring the future. Building an early warning system for the Dutch Ministry of Justice. Futures 2010, 42:454-465.
77. Varum C.A., Melo C. Direction in scenario planning literature - a review of the past decades. Futures 2010, 42:355-369.
78. Kwakkel J.H., Walker W.E., Marchau V.A.W.J. Dealing with uncertainty in airport strategic planning. 11th Air Transport Research Society World Conference 2007, M. Hanssen (Ed.).
79. Kwakkel J.H., Walker W.E., Marchau V.A.W.J. Assessing the efficacy of adaptive airport strategic planning: results from computational experiments. World Conference of the Transportation Research Society 2010.
80. Ansoff H.I. Corporate Strategy: An Analytic Approach to Business Policy for Growth and Expansion 1965, McGraw-Hill, New York.
81. H. Weihrich, The TOWS Matrix - A Tool for Situational Analysis, Long Range Planning, 60, 1982.