An Ecological Assessment of the Pandemic Threat of Zika Virus

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Volumn 10, Issue 8, 2016, Pages

  Carlson, Colin J ^a   Dougherty, Eric R ^a   Getz, Wayne ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; CLINICAL ASSESSMENT; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; ECOLOGICAL NICHE; FLAVIVIRIDAE; NONHUMAN; PANDEMIC; PHYLOGENY; SEROLOGY; SEXUAL TRANSMISSION; ZIKA VIRUS; AEDES; ANIMAL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; EPIDEMIC; GENETICS; HUMAN; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; MEXICO; MOSQUITO VECTOR; NORTH AMERICA; PHYSIOLOGY; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION; VIROLOGY; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

AEDES; AMERICAS; ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; ECOSYSTEM; HUMANS; MEXICO; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MOSQUITO VECTORS; NORTH AMERICA; PANDEMICS; TEMPERATURE; ZIKA VIRUS; ZIKA VIRUS INFECTION;

EID: 84988698675     PISSN: 19352727     EISSN: 19352735     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004968     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Attar N., Zika virus circulates in new regions. Nature Rev Microbiol. 2016; 14: 62.
2. Dick GWA, Kitchen SF, Haddow AJ, Zika virus (I). Isolations and serological specificity. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1952; 46: 509–520. 12995440
3. Hennessey M, Zika virus spreads to new areas—region of the Americas, May 2015-January 2016. CDC Morbidity and Mortality Report2016; 65: 55–58.
4. Musso D, Nilles EJ, Cao-Lormeau VM, Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific Area. Clin Microbiol Infec. 2014; 20: O595–O596.
5. Musso D, Cao-Lormeau VM, Gubler DJ, Zika virus: following the path of dengue and chikungunya?Lancet2015; 386: 243–244. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61273-926194519
6. Gatherer D, Zika virus: a previously slow pandemic spreads rapidly through the Americas?J Gen Virol. 2015; 97: 269–273. doi: 10.1099/jgv.0.00038126684466
7. Summers DJ, Acosta RW, Acosta AM, Zika virus in an American recreational traveler. J Travel Med. 2015; 22: 338–340. doi: 10.1111/jtm.1220825996909
8. Fonseca K, Case report: first case of Zika virus infection in a returning Canadian traveler. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2014; 91: 1035–1038. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-015125294619
9. Kwong JC, Druce JD, Leder K, Case report: Zika virus infection acquired during brief travel to Indonesia. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013; 89: 516–517. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.13-002923878182
10. Zammarchi L, Zika virus infection in a traveler returning to Europe from Brazil, March 2015. Euro Surveill. 2015; 20: pii-21153.
11. Faria NR, Azevedo RSS, Kraemer MUG, Souza R, Cunha MS, et al. Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings. Science2016; 352: 345–349. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf503627013429
12. Paz S, Semenza JC, El Niño and climate change–contributing factors in the dispersal of Zika virus in the Americas?Lancet2016; 387: 745.
13. Peterson AT, Ecological niche modeling and spatial patterns of disease transmission. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006; 12: 1822–1826. 17326931
14. GEOLocate. http://www.museum.tulane.edu/geolocate/web/WebGeoref.aspx. Accessed 2/7/2016.
15. Aiello-Lammens ME, Boria RA, Radosavljevic A, Vilela B, Anderson RP, spThin: an R package for spatial thinning of species occurrence records for use in ecological niche models. Ecography2015; 38: 541–545.
16. Stockwell DRB, Peterson AT, Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecol Mod. 2002; 148: 1–13.
17. Hernandez PA, Graham CH, Master LL, Albert DL, The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography2006; 29: 773–785.
18. Wisz MS, Hijmans RJ, Li J, Peterson AT, Graham CH, et al. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Div. Dist.2008; 14: 763–773.
19. Kraemer MUG, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQN, Shearer FM, et al. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. eLife2015; 4: e08347. doi: 10.7554/eLife.0834726126267
20. Kraemer MUG, Sinka ME, Duda KA, Mylne AQN, Shearer FM, et al. The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence. Sci Data. 2015; 2: 150035. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2015.3526175912
21. Messina JP, Brady OJ, Pigott DM, Brownstein JS, Hoen AG, et al. A global compendium of human dengue virus occurrence. Sci Data. 2015; 1: 140004.
22. Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature2013; 496: 504–507. doi: 10.1038/nature1206023563266
23. Haddow AD, Schuh AJ, Yasuda CY, Kasper MR, Heang V, et al. Genetic characterization of Zika virus strains: geographic expansion of the Asian lineage. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012; 6: e1477. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000147722389730
24. Weaver SC, Costa F, Garcia-Blanco MA, Ko AI, Ribeiro GS, et al. Zika virus: history, emergence, biology, and prospects for control. Antiviral Research2016; 130: 69–80. doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2016.03.01026996139
25. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A, Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Climatol. 2005; 25: 1965–1978.
26. Peterson AT, Martínez-Campos C, Nakazawa Y, Martínez-Meyer E, Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases. T Roy Soc Trop Med H. 2005; 99: 647–655.
27. NASA Earth Observations TERRA/MODIS NDVI. http://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=MOD13A2_M_NDVI. Accessed 2/7/2016.
28. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araujo MB, BIOMOD: a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography2009; 32: 369–373.
29. Messina JP, Kraemer MUG, Brady OJ, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, et al.Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus. eLife2016; 5: e15272. doi: 10.7554/eLife.1527227090089
30. Samy AM, Thomas SM, El Wahed AA, Cohoon KP, Peterson AT, Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread [Submitted]. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. E-pub: 15 April 2016. 10.1590/0074-02760160149.
31. Shapshak P, Somboonwit C, Foley BT, Alrabaa SF, Wills T, et al. Chapter 18: Zika virus. In: P. Shapshak et al., editors. Global Virology I–Identifying and Investigating Viral Diseases, 10.1007/978-1-4939-2410-3_18.
32. Jones C, Robertson E, Arora V, Friedlingstein P, Shevliakova E, et al. Twenty-first-century compatible CO2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by CMIP5 Earth System models under four representative concentration pathways. J Climatol. 2013; 26: 4398–4413.
33. Broenniman O, Di Cola V, Petitpierre B, Breiner F, D’Amen M, et al. Ecospat: spatial ecology: miscellaneous methods. R package version 1.0. http://www.unil.ch/ecospat/home/menuinst/tools-data/tools.html. (2014)
34. Broenniman O, Fitzpatrick MC, Pearman PB, Petitpierre B, Pellissier L, et al. Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data. Global Ecol Biogeogr. 2012; 21: 481–497.
35. Broenniman O, Guisan A, Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter. Biology Letters2008; 4: 585–589. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2008.025418664415
36. Pigott DM, Golding N, Mylne A, Huang Z, Henry AJ, et al. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. eLife2014; 3: e04395. doi: 10.7554/eLife.0439525201877
37. Lanciotti RS, Lambert AJ, Holodniy M, Saavedra S, Signor LCC, Phylogeny of Zika virus in the western hemisphere, 2015. Emerg Inf Dis. 2016; 22: 933–935.
38. Bogoch II, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, German M, Creatore MI, et al. Anticipating the international spread of Zika virus from Brazil. Lancet2016; 387: 335–336. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00080-526777915
39. Christofferson RC, Zika virus emergence and expansion: Lessons learned from dengue and chikungunya may not provide all the answers. Am J Trop Med Hyg. in press. 10.4269/ajtmh.15-0866
40. Messina JP, Brady OJ, Pigott DM, Golding N, Kraemer MUG, et al. The many projected futures of dengue. Nature Rev Microbiol. 2015; 13: 230–239.
41. Eisen L, Moore CG, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti in the continental United States: a vector at the cool margin of its geographic range. J Med Entomol. 2013; 50: 467–478. 23802440
42. Brady OJ, Gething PW, Bhatt S, Messina JP, Brownstein JS, et al. Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus. PLoS Negl Trop Dis2012; 6: e1760. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000176022880140
43. Johansson MA, Cummings DAT, Glass GE, Multiyear climate variability and dengue–El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis. PLoS Medicine2009; 6: e1000168. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.100016819918363
44. Ritchie SA, Rochester W, Wind-blown mosquitoes and introduction of Japanese encephalitis into Australia. Emerg Infect Dis. 2001; 7: 900. 11747709
45. Darwish MA, Hoogstraal H, Roberts TJ, Ahmed IP, Omar F, A sero-epidemiological survey for certain arboviruses (Togaviridae) in Pakistan. T Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1983; 77: 442–445.
46. Ioos S, Mallet H-P, Goffart IL, Gauthier V, Cardoso T, et al. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics. Med Maladies Infect. 2014; 44: 302–307.
47. Neumann G, Noda T, Kawaoka Y, Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus. Nature2009; 459: 931–939 (2009). doi: 10.1038/nature0815719525932
48. Foy BD, Kobylinski KC, Foy JLC, Blitvich BJ, da Rosa AT, et al. Probable non-vector-borne transmission of Zika virus, Colorado, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2011; 17: 880–882. doi: 10.3201/eid1705.10193921529401
49. Gao F, Bailes E, Robertson DL, Chen Y, Rodenburg CM, et al. Origin of HIV-1 in the chimpanzee Pan troglodytes troglodytes. Nature1999; 397: 436–441. 9989410
50. Alfaro-Murillo JA, Paripa AS, Fitzpatrick MC, Tamagnan JA, Medlock J, et al. A cost-effectiveness tool for informing policies on Zika virus control. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016; 10: e0004743. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000474327205899