Testing the recent snow drought as an analog for climate warming sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 8, 2016, Pages

  Cooper, Matthew G ^a,b   Nolin, Anne W ^b   Safeeq, Mohammad ^c,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change impacts; drought; snow; snow water equivalent; temperature sensitivity; warm spell

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; SNOW MELTING SYSTEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE WARMING; ENERGY BALANCE MODELS; OBSERVED VALUES; SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY; WARM SPELL; WINTER PRECIPITATION;

SNOW;

AIR TEMPERATURE; DROUGHT; ENERGY BALANCE; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEASONAL VARIATION; SNOW COVER; SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT; SNOWPACK; TESTING METHOD;

CASCADE RANGE; OREGON; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84985998145     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Abatzoglou J T 2011 Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the Western United States Int. J. Climatol. 31 1135-42
2. Barnett T P et al 2008 Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the Western United States Science 319 1080-3
3. Casola J H, Cuo L, Livneh B, Lettenmaier D P, Stoelinga M T, Mote P W and Wallace J M 2009 Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the washington cascades J. Clim. 22 2758-72
4. Dai A 2008 Temperature and pressure dependence of the rain-snow phase transition over land and ocean Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L12802
5. Dalton M M, Mote P W and Snover A K (ed) 2013 Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities (Washington, DC: Island) (http://occri.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ClimateChangeInTheNorthwest.pdf)
6. Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith J I, Gibson W P, Doggett M K, Taylor G H, Curtis J and Pasteris P P 2008 Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States Int. J. Climatol. 28 2031-64
7. Diffenbaugh N S, Swain D L and Touma D 2015 Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 112 3931-6
8. Floyd M 2016 Extreme events show signal of climate change News and Research Communications (http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2016/mar/extreme-events-show-signal-climate-change)
9. Fritze H, Stewart I T and Pebesma E 2011 Shifts in Western North American Snowmelt runoff regimes for the recent warm decades J. Hydrometeorol. 12 989-1006
10. Fry J A et al 2011 Completion of the 2006 national land cover database for the conterminous United States Photogrammatric Eng. Remote Sens. 77 858-64
11. Garcia E S and Tague C L 2015 Subsurface storage capacity influences climate-evapotranspiration interactions in three western United States catchments Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19 4845-58
12. Gesch D, Oimoen M, Greenlee S, Nelson C, Steuck M and Tyler D 2002 The national elevation dataset Photogrammatric Eng. Remote Sens. 68 5-32
13. Hamlet A F, Mote P W, Clark M P and Lettenmaier D P 2005 Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States J. Clim. 18 4545-61
14. Harpold A A 2016 Diverging sensitivity of soil water stress to changing snowmelt timing in the Western US Adv. Water Resour. 92 116-29
15. Hay L E, Wilby R L and Leavesley G H 2000 A comparison of delta change and downscaled Gcm scenarios for three mounfainous basins in the United States1 JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 36 387-97
16. Hidalgo H G et al 2009 Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States J. Clim. 22 3838-55
17. Jefferson A, Grant G E, Lewis S L and Lancaster S T 2010 Coevolution of hydrology and topography on a basalt landscape in the Oregon Cascade Range, USA Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 35 803-16
18. Kalnay E et al 1996 The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77 437-71
19. Kapnick S and Hall A 2011 Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack Clim. Dyn. 38 1885-99
20. Kirtman B et al 2013 Near-term climate change: projections and predictability Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed T F Stocker et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) (www.climatechange2013.org)
21. Knowles N 2015 Trends in snow cover and related quantities at weather stations in the conterminous United States J. Clim. 28 7518-28
22. Knowles N and Cayan D 2004 Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Clim. Change 62 319-36
23. Liston G E and Elder K 2006a A distributed snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) J. Hydrometeorol 7 1259-76
24. Liston G E and Elder K 2006b A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (MicroMet) J. Hydrometeorol. 7 217-34
25. Livneh B, Rosenberg E A, Lin C, Nijssen B, Mishra V, Andreadis K M, Maurer E P and Lettenmaier D P 2013 A long-term hydrologically based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous US: update and extensions J. Clim. 26 9384-92
26. Luce C H, Lopez-Burgos V and Holden Z 2014 Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models Water Resour. Res. 50 9447-62
27. Mankin J S and Diffenbaugh N S 2014 Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends Clim. Dyn. 45 1099-116
28. Mankin J S, Viviroli D, Singh D, Hoekstra A Y and Diffenbaugh N S 2015 The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future Environ. Res. Lett. 10 114016
29. Mao Y, Nijssen B and Lettenmaier D P 2015 Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 2805-13
30. Marks D, Winstral A, Reba M, Pomeroy J and Kumar M 2013 An evaluation of methods for determining during-storm precipitation phase and the rain/snow transition elevation at the surface in a mountain basin Adv. Water Resour. 55 98-110
31. McCabe G J and Dettinger M D 2002 Primary modes and predictability of year-to-year snowpack variations in the Western United States from teleconnections with Pacific Ocean Climate J. Hydrometeorol. 3 13-25
32. Minder J R 2010 The sensitivity of mountain snowpack accumulation to climate warming J. Clim. 23 2634-50
33. Mote P, Hamlet A and Salathé E 2008 Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Hydrol Earth Syst. Sci. 12 193-206
34. Mote P W 2006 Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in Western North America J. Clim. 19 6209-20
35. Mote P W, Hamlet A F, Clark M P and Lettenmaier D P 2005 Declining mountain snowpack in Western North America Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86 39-49
36. Mote P W and Salathé E P 2010 Future climate in the Pacific Northwest Clim. Change 102 29-50
37. Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group 2015 Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world Nat. Clim. Change 5 424-30
38. NRCS 2015 Oregon Basin Outlook Report (Washington DC: US Dept of Agriculture) (http://nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/waterproducts/?cid = nrcs142p2-048083)
39. Pierce D W et al 2008 Attribution of declining Western US snowpack to human effects J. Clim. 21 6425-44
40. Safeeq M, Grant G E, Lewis S L and Tague C L 2013 Coupling snowpack and groundwater dynamics to interpret historical streamflow trends in the western United States Hydrol. Process. 27 655-68
41. Safeeq M, Shukla S, Arismendi I, Grant G E, Lewis S L and Nolin A W 2016 Influence of winter season climate variability on snow-precipitation ratio in the Western United States Int. J. Climatol. 36 3175-90
42. Serreze M C, Clark M P, Armstrong R L, McGinnis D A and Pulwarty R S 1999 Characteristics of the western United States snowpack from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) data Water Resour. Res. 35 2145-60
43. Shukla S, Safeeq M, AghaKouchak A, Guan K and Funk C 2015 Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California Geophys. Res. Lett. 11 4384-93
44. Sproles E A, Nolin A W, Rittger K and Painter T H 2013 Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17 2581-97
45. Stoelinga M T, Albright M D and Mass C F 2010 A new look at snowpack trends in the Cascade Mountains J. Clim. 23 2473-91
46. Tague C and Grant G E 2004 A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette River Basin, Oregon Water Resour. Res. 40 W04303
47. Tennant C J, Crosby B T, Godsey S E, VanKirk R W and Derryberry D R 2015 A simple framework for assessing the sensitivity of mountain watersheds to warming-driven snowpack loss Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 2814-22
48. Thompson A 2015 Pacific Northwest's 'Wet Drought' Possible Sign of Future climatecentral.org (http://climatecentral.org/news/northwest-wet-drought-climate-future-18910)
49. USACE 1956 Summary Report of the Snow Investigation-Snow Hydrology, North Pacific Division Report (Washington, DC: US Army Corps of Engineers)
50. Walton B 2015 Pacific Northwest's Winter, Warm and Wet, Is Climate Change Preview, Circ. Blue (http://circleofblue.org/2015/world/pacificnorthwests-winterwarm-wet-climate-change-preview/)
51. Watanabe S, Kanae S, Seto S, Yeh P J-F, Hirabayashi Y and Oki T 2012 Intercomparison of bias-correction methods for monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by multiple climate models J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117 D23114