Sensitivity of snowpack storage to precipitation and temperature using spatial and temporal analog models

Water Resources Research

Volumn 50, Issue 12, 2014, Pages 9447-9462

  Luce, Charles H ^a   Lopez Burgos, Viviana ^a   Holden, Zachary ^b  

^a ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

^b USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

climate; elasticity; local polynomial regression; sensitivity; snow hydrology

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; DIGITAL STORAGE; ELASTICITY; SNOW; SNOW MELTING SYSTEMS; WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE; CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE; EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; LOCAL POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION; PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY; SENSITIVITY; SNOW HYDROLOGY;

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RESIDENCE TIME; SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT; SNOWPACK; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WATER RESOURCE; WINTER;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 85027927254     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2013WR014844     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Barnett, T. P.; et al. (2008), Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States, Science, 319, 1080-1083, doi: 10.1126/science.1152538.
2. Blöschl, G.; and, A. Montanari, (2010), Climate change impacts: Throwing the dice?, Hydrol. Processess, 24 (3), 374-381.
3. Casola, J. H.; L. Cuo, B. Livneh, D. P. Lettenmaier, M. T. Stoelinga, P. W. Mote, and, J. M. Wallace, (2009), Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades, Am. Meteorol. Soc.; 22, 2758-2772, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2612.1.
4. Cayan, D. R.; M. D. Dettinger, S. A. Kammerdiener, J. M. Carpio, and, D. H. Peterson, (2001), Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States, Am. Meteorol. Soc.; 82 (3), 399-415.
5. Clow, D. W.; (2010), Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming, J. Clim.; 23 (9), 2293-2306.
6. Colle, B. A.; (2004), Sensitivity of orographic precipitation to changing ambient conditions and terrain geometries: An idealized modeling perspective, J. Atmos. Sci.; 61 (5), 588-606.
7. Dai, A.; (2008), Temperature and pressure dependence of the rain-snow phase transition over land and ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett.; 35, L12802, doi: 10.1029/2008GL033295.
8. Dettinger, M. D.; (2013), Projections and downscaling of 21st century temperatures, precipitation, radiative fluxes and winds for the Southwestern U.S.; with focus on Lake Tahoe, Clim. Change, 116 (1), 17-33, doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0501-x.
9. Dettinger, M. D.; K. T. Redmond, and, D. R. Cayan, (2004), Winter orographic precipitation ratios in the Sierra Nevada: Large-scale atmospheric circulations and hydrologic consequences, J. Hydrometeorol.; 5 (6), 1102-1116.
10. Elsner, M. M.; L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. S. Deems, A. F. Hamlet, J. A. Vano, K. E. B. Mickelson, S.-Y. Lee, and, D. P. Lettenmaier, (2010), Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State, Clim. Change, 102, 225-260.
11. Hamlet, A. F.; P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, and, D. P. Lettenmaier, (2005), Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the Western United States, J. Clim.; 18 (21), 4545-4561.
12. Hantel, M.; and, L. M. Hirtl-Wielke, (2007), Sensitivity of Alpine snow cover to European temperature, Int. J. Climatol.; 27 (10), 1265-1275.
13. Holden, Z. A.; C. H. Luce, M. A. Crimmins, and, P. Morgan, (2012), Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984-2005), Ecohydrology, 5 (5), 677-684, doi: 10.1002/eco.257.
14. Kapnick, S.; and, A. Hall, (2012), Causes of recent changes in western North American snowpack, Clim. Dyn.; 38 (9-10), 1885-1899.
15. Karl, T. R.; P. Y. Groisman, R. W. Knight, and, R. R. Heim, Jr,. (1993), Recent variations of snow cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature variations, J. Clim.; 6 (7), 1327-1344.
16. Kirchner, J. W.; (2009), Catchments as simple dynamical systems: Catchment characterization, rainfall-runoff modeling, and doing hydrology backward, Water Resour. Res.; 45, W02429, doi: 10.1029/2008WR006912.
17. Liang, X.; D. P. Lettenmaier, E. F. Wood, and, S. J. Burges, (1994), A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res.; 99 (D7), 14,415-14,428.
18. Loader, C. R.; (1999), Local Regression and Likelihood, 290 pp.; Springer, N. Y.
19. Luce, C. H.; J. T. Abatzoglou, and, Z. A. Holden, (2013), The missing mountain water: Slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA, Science, 342 (6164), 1360-1364, doi: 10.1126/science.1242335.
20. Marks, D.; A. Winstral, M. Reba, J. Pomeroy, and, M. Kumar, (2013), An evaluation of methods for determining during-storm precipitation phase and the rain/snow transition elevation at the surface in a mountain basin, Adv. Water Resour.; 55, 98-110.
21. McGuire, K.; J. McDonnell, M. Weiler, C. Kendall, B. McGlynn, J. Welker, and, J. Seibert, (2005), The role of topography on catchment-scale water residence time, Water Resour. Res.; 41, W05002, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003657.
22. McKelvey, K. S.; J. P. Copeland, M. K. Schwartz, J. S. Littell, K. B. Aubry, J. R. Squires, S. A. Parks, M. M. Elsner, and, G. S. Mauger, (2011), Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, Ecol. Appl.; 21 (8), 2882-2897.
23. McNamara, J. P.; D. Tetzlaff, K. Bishop, C. Soulsby, M. Seyfried, N. E. Peters, B. T. Aulenbach, and, R. Hooper, (2011), Storage as a metric of catchment comparison, Hydrol. Processess, 25 (21), 3364-3371.
24. Minder, J. R.; (2010), The sensitivity of mountain snowpack accumulation to climate warming, J. Clim.; 23, 2634-2650, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3263.1.
25. Mohseni, O.; H. G. Stefan, and, T. R. Erickson, (1998), A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures, Water Resour. Res.; 34 (10), 2685-2692.
26. Monserud, R. A.; N. M. Tchebakova, and, R. Leemans, (1993), Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model, Clim. Change, 25 (1), 59-83.
27. Mote, P. W.; (2003), Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes Geophys. Res. Lett.; 30(12), 1601, doi: 10.1029/2003GL01258.
28. Mote, P. W.; (2006), Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in Western North America, J. Clim.; 19 (23), 6209-6220.
29. Mote, P. W.; A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, and, D. P. Lettenmaier, (2005), Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc.; 86 (11), 39-49.
30. Newell, J.; and, J. Einbeck, (2007), A comparative study of nonparametric derivative estimators, paper presented at Proc. of the 22nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, edited by J. del Castillo, A. Espinal and P. Puig, pp. 453-456, Statistical Modelling Society, Barcelona, July 2-6 2007.
31. Regonda, S.; B. Rajagopalan, M. Clark, and, J. Pitlick, (2005), Seasonal cycle shifts in hydroclimatology over the western United States, J. Clim.; 18 (2), 372-384.
32. Rutter, N.; et al. (2009), Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2), J. Geophys. Res.; 114, D06111, doi: 10.1029/2008JD011063.
33. Sankarasubramanian, A.; R. M. Vogel, and, J. F. Limbrunner, (2001), Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States, Water Resour. Res.; 37 (6), 1771-1781.
34. Sawicz, K.; T. Wagener, M. Sivapalan, P. Troch, and, G. Carrillo, (2011), Catchment classification: Empirical analysis of hydrologic similarity based on catchment function in the eastern USA, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.; 15 (9), 2895-2911.
35. Schimel, D.; W. Hargrove, F. Hoffman, and, J. MacMahon, (2007), NEON: A hierarchically designed national ecological network, Front. Ecol. Environ.; 5 (2), 59.
36. Serreze, M. C.; M. P. Clark, R. L. Armstrong, D. A. McGinnis, and, R. S. Pulwarty, (1999), Characteristics of the western United States snowpack from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) data, Water Resour. Res.; 35 (7), 2145-2160.
37. Solomon, S.; D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and, H. L. Miller, (Eds.) (2007), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment, Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
38. Soulsby, C.; D. Tetzlaff, and, M. Hrachowitz, (2009), Tracers and transit times: Windows for viewing catchment scale storage?, Hydrol. Processess, 23 (24), 3503-3507.
39. Sproles, E.; A. Nolin, K. Rittger, and, T. Painter, (2013), Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.; 17 (7), 2581-2597.
40. Stewart, I. T.; D. R. Cayan, and, M. D. Dettinger, (2005), Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America, J. Clim.; 18 (8), 1136-1155.
41. Stocker, T.; D. Qin, G. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, B. Bex, and, B. Midgley, (2013), IPCC 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1535 pp.; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K.
42. Tchebakova, N. M.; R. A. Monserud, and, D. I. Nazimova, (1994), A Siberian vegetation model based on climatic parameters, Can. J. Forest Res.; 24 (8), 1597-1607.
43. Vose, J. M.; D. L. Peterson, and, T. Patel-Weynand, (Eds.) (2012), Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector, Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-870, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oreg.
44. Wenger, S. J.; C. H. Luce, A. F. Hamlet, D. J. Isaak, and, H. M. Neville, (2010), Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Water Resour. Res.; 46, W09513, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008839.
45. Wenger, S. J.; et al. (2011), Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.; 108 (34), 14,175-14,180, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1103097108.
46. Wenger, S. J.; N. A. Som, D. C. Dauwalter, D. J. Isaak, H. M. Neville, C. H. Luce, J. B. Dunham, M. K. Young, K. D. Fausch, and, B. E. Rieman, (2013), Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change, Global Change Bio.; 19 (11), 3343-3354, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12294.
47. Westerling, A. L.; H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and, T. W. Swetnam, (2006), Warming and earlier spring increases western U.S. Forest wildfire activity, Science, 313 (5789), 940-943, doi: 10.1126/science.1128834.
48. Williams, J. W.; and, S. T. Jackson, (2007), Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises, Frontiers Ecol. Environ.; 5 (9), 475-482.
49. Woods, R. A.; (2009), Analytical model of seasonal climate impacts on snow hydrology: Continuous snowpacks, Adv. Water Resour.; 32 (10), 1465-1481.
50. Yuter, S. E.; D. A. Stark, J. A. Crouch, M. J. Payne, and, B. A. Colle, (2011), The impact of varying environmental conditions on the spatial and temporal patterns of orographic precipitation over the Pacific Northwest near Portland, Oregon, J. Hydrometeorol.; 12 (3), 329-351.