A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 157, Issue , 2017, Pages 35-53

  Nan, Cen ^a   Sansavini, Giovanni ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Agent based modeling; Interdependency; Interdependent critical infrastructure; Reliability; Resilience

Indexed keywords

AUTONOMOUS AGENTS; COMPUTATIONAL METHODS; RELIABILITY;

AGENT-BASED MODEL; ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY; INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS; INTERDEPENDENCY; INTERDEPENDENT INFRASTRUCTURES; QUANTITATIVE METHOD; RESILIENCE; SYSTEM RESILIENCES;

ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS;

EID: 84984656519     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.013     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. [1] Kröger, W., Zio, E., Vulnerable systems, 2011, Springer-Verlag, London.
2. [2] Kröger, W., Critical infrastructure at risk: a need for a new conceptual approach and extended analytical tools. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 93 (2008), 1781–1787.
3. [3] Eusgeld, I., Kröger, W., Sansavini, G., Schläpfer, M., Zio, E., The role of network theory and object-oriented modeling within a framework for the vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 94 (2009), 954–963.
4. [4] Rinaldi, S.M., Peerenboom, J.P., Kelly, T.K., Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Syst 21 (2001), 11–25.
5. [5] US – Canada Power System Outage Task Force. Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations; 2004.
6. [6] Brummitt, C.D., D'Souza, R.M., Leicht, E.A., Suppressing cascades of load in interdependent networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci 109 (2012), E680–E689.
7. [7] Buldyrev, S.V., Parshani, R., Paul, G., Stanley, H.E., Havlin, S., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks. Nature 464 (2010), 1025–1028.
8. [8] Vespignani, A., Complex networks: the fragility of interdependency. Nature 464 (2010), 984–985.
9. [9] Leavitt, W.M., Kiefer, J.J., Infrastructure interdependency and the creation of a normal disaster the case of hurricane Katrina and the city of New Orleans. Public Works Manag Policy 10 (2006), 306–314.
10. [10] Ouyang, M., Dueñas-Osorio, L., Min, X., A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems. Struct Saf 36–37 (2012), 23–31.
11. [11] Fisher R, Bassett G, Buehring W, Collins M, Dickinson D, Eaton L, et al. Constructing a Resilience Index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Program. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Department of Energy, United States; 2010.
12. [12] Madni, A.M., Jackson, S., Towards a conceptual framework for resilience engineering. IEEE Syst J 3 (2009), 181–191.
13. [13] Decò, A., Bocchini, P., Frangopol, D.M., A probabilistic approach for the prediction of seismic resilience of bridges. Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 42 (2013), 1469–1487.
14. [14] Linkov, I., Creutzig, F., Decker, J., Fox-Lent, C., Kröger, W., et al. Risking resilience: changing the paradigm. Nat Clim Change 4 (2014), 407–409.
15. [15] Holling, C.S., Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst, 1973, 1–23.
16. [16] Adger, W.N., Social and ecological resilience: are they related?. Prog Hum Geogr 24 (2000), 347–364.
17. [17] Pant R, Barker K. Building dynamic resilience estimation metrics for interdependent infrastructures. ESREL 2012. Helsinki, Finland; 2012.
18. [18] Hollnagel, E., Resilience engineering, 2006, Ashgate, Hampshire, England.
19. [19] 〈http://www.resalliance.org/〉.
20. [20] Haimes, Y.Y., On the definition of resilience in systems. Risk Anal 29 (2009), 498–501.
21. [21] McCarthy JA, Pommering C, Perelman LJ, Scalingi PL, Garbin DA, Shortle JF, et al. Critical thinking: Moving from infrastructure protection to infrastructure resilience. George Mason University CIP Program Discussion Paper Series; 2007; p. 97–109.
22. [22] McDaniels, T., Chang, S., Cole, D., Mikawoz, J., Longstaff, H., Fostering resilience to extreme events within infrastructure systems: characterizing decision contexts for mitigation and adaptation. Glob Environ Change 18 (2008), 310–318.
23. [23] Fiksel, J., Designing resilient, sustainable systems. Environ Sci Technol 37 (2003), 5330–5339.
24. [24] Bruneau, M., Chang, S.E., Eguchi, R.T., Lee, G.C., O'Rourke, T.D., Reinhorn, A.M., et al. A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earthq Spectra 19 (2003), 733–752.
25. [25] Gao, J., Buldyrev, S.V., Havlin, S., Stanley, H.E., Robustness of a network of networks. Phys Rev Lett, 107, 2011, 195701.
26. [26] Brand K-P, Lohmann V, Wimmer W. Substation automation handbook: Utility Automation Consulting Lohmann; 2003.
27. [27] Vugrin, E., Warren, D., Ehlen, M., Camphouse, R.C., A Framework for assessing the resilience of infrastructure and economic systems. Gopalakrishnan, K., Peeta, S., (eds.) Sustainable and resilient critical infrastructure systems, 2010, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 77–116.
28. [28] Bruneau, M., Chang, S.E., Eguchi, R.T., Lee, G.C., O'Rourke, T.D., Reinhorn, A.M., et al. A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities. Earthq Spectra 19 (2003), 733–752.
29. [29] Chang, S.E., Shinozuka, M., Measuring Improvements in the Disaster Resilience of Communities. Earthq Spectra, 2004, 20.
30. [30] Directive PP. Critical infrastructure security and resilience. PPD-21; 2013.
31. [31] Bueno, N.P., Assessing the resilience of small socio-ecological systems based on the dominant polarity of their feedback structure. Syst Dyn Rev 28 (2012), 351–360.
32. [32] Filippini, R., Silva, A., A modeling framework for the resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on functional dependencies. Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 2013.
33. [33] Alessandri, A., Filippini, R., Evaluation of resilience of interconnected systems based on stability analysis. Hämmerli, B., Kalstad Svendsen, N., Lopez, J., (eds.) Critical information infrastructures security, 2013, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 180–190.
34. [34] Henry, D., Emmanuel Ramirez-Marquez, J., Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 99 (2012), 114–122.
35. [35] Nan C., Sansavini G., Kroeger W., Heinimann H.R. A quantitative method for assessing the resilience of infrastructure systems. In: Proceedings of the 12th Probabilistic safety assessment & management conference (PSAM12). Honolulu, USA; 2014.
36. [36] Ferreira, C., Gama, J., Miranda, V., Botterud, A., Probabilistic ramp detection and forecasting for wind power prediction. Billinton, R., Karki, R., Verma, A.K., (eds.) Reliability and risk evaluation of wind integrated power systems, 2013, Springer, India, 9–44.
37. [37] Kamath, C., Understanding wind ramp events through analysis of historical data. Transm Distrib Conf Expo, 2010, 1–6.
38. [38] Zheng, H., Kusiak, A., Prediction of wind farm power ramp rates: a data-mining approach. J Sol Energy Eng, 131, 2009, 31011.
39. [39] Francis, R., Bekera, B., A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 121 (2014), 90–103.
40. [40] Griot, C., Modelling and simulation for critical infrastructure interdependency assessment: a meta-review for model characterisation. Int J Crit Infrastruct 6 (2010), 363–379.
41. [41] Pederson P, Dudenhoeffer D, Hartly S, Permann M. Critical infrastructure interdependency modeling: A survey of US and international research. Idaho National Laboratory; 2006.
42. [42] Zio, E., Sansavini, G., Modeling Interdependent Network Systems for Identifying Cascade-Safe Operating Margins. IEEE Trans Reliab 60 (2011), 94–101.
43. [43] Nan, C., Eusgeld, I., Kröger, W., Analyzing vulnerabilities between SCADA system and SUC due to interdependencies. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 113 (2013), 76–93.
44. [44] Nan, C., Eusgeld, I., Adopting, H.L.A., standard for interdependency study. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 96 (2011), 149–159.
45. [45] Zio, E., Sansavini, G., Vulnerability of smart grids with variable generation and consumption: a system of systems perspective. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern: Syst 43 (2013), 477–487.
46. [46] Bilis, E.I., Kroger, W., Nan, C., Performance of electric power systems under physical malicious attacks. Syst J IEEE 7 (2013), 854–865.
47. [47] Chappin EJL, Dijkema GPJ. Agent-based modeling of energy infrastructure transitions. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on infrastructure systems and services: Building Networks for a Brighter Future (INFRA); 2008. p. 1–6.
48. [48] Tolk A, Uhrmacher AM. Agents: Agenthood, agent architectures, and agent taxonomies. Agent-Directed Simulation and Systems Engineering: Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA; 2010. p. 73–109.
49. [49] Sharit J. Human error and human reliability analysis. Handbook of human factors and ergonomics, fourth edition; 2012. p. 734–800.
50. [50] Wood, A.J., Wollenberg, B.F., Power generation, operation, and control, 2012, John Wiley & Sons, New York, USA.
51. [51] Schläpfer M, Kessler T, Kröger W. Reliability analysis of electric power systems using an object-oriented hybrid modeling approach. In: Proceedings of the 16th power systems computation conference. Glasgow; 2008.
52. [52] Nan C, Eusgeld I. Exploring impacts of single failure propagation between SCADA and SUC. In: Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on industrial engineering and engineering management (IEEM); 2011. p. 1564–8.
53. [53] Hollnagel, E., Cognitive reliability and error analysis method CREAM. 1998, Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
54. [54] Nan, C., Sansavini, G., Developing an agent-based hierarchical modeling approach to assess human performance of infrastructure systems. Int J Ind Ergon 53 (2016), 340–354.
55. [55] Nan C, Eusgeld I. Exploring impacts of single failure propagation between SCADA and SUC. In: Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on industrial engineering and engineering management (IEEM); 2011. p. 1564–8.
56. [56] Bilis, E., Raschke, M., Kroeger, W., Seismic response of the swiss transmission grid. Proc ESREL, 2010, 5–9.
57. [57] Raschke M, Bilis E, Kröger W. Vulnerability of the Swiss electric power transmission grid against natural hazards. Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering: CRC Press; 2011. p. 1407–14.
58. [58] Cepin M. Relaibillity of power systems-catastrophic sleet and ice rain in Slovenia 2014. ESRA (European Safety Reliability Association) Newsletter; March 2014.
59. [59] Samenow, J., Positively caked in ice, crazy storm photos from Slovenia. 2014, The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/07/craziest-ice-storm-photos-youll-ever-seen-from-slovenia-photos/.
60. [60] Bründl, M., Rickli, C., The storm Lothar 1999 in Switzerland–an incident analysis. Snow Land Res, 77, 2002, 2.
61. [61] Lachs, W.R., Transmission-line overloads: real-time control. Generation, Transmission and Distribution. IEE Proc C 134 (1987), 342–347.
62. [62] George, C.R., Norma Faris, H., Douglas Carter, Montgomery, E.E., Engineering statistics. 2004, Wiley, New York, NY.