메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 9, Issue , 2015, Pages 25-35

Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events

Author keywords

Ensemble modelling; Extreme value statistics; Extreme weather events

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA SET; HUMAN ACTIVITY; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; TIME SERIES;

EID: 84940950867     PISSN: 22120947     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (36)

References (46)
  • 2
    • 0037468186 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Liability for climate change
    • Allen M. Liability for climate change. Nature 2003, 421:891-892.
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , pp. 891-892
    • Allen, M.1
  • 5
    • 0003404269 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values
    • Springer, London, UK.
    • Coles, S., Bawa, J., Trenner, L., Dorazio, P., 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, vol. 208. Springer, London, UK.
    • (2001) , vol.208
    • Coles, S.1    Bawa, J.2    Trenner, L.3    Dorazio, P.4
  • 6
    • 84940957469 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Deutscher Wetterdienst
    • Technical Report. Deutscher Wetterdienst
    • Deutscher Wetterdienst, 2014. Seasonal Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI-Europe and Middle East. Technical Report. Deutscher Wetterdienst. URL 〈〉. http://www.seevccc.rs/SEECOF/SEECOF-11/STEP%201/RCC_CM_DWD_SeasonalClimReport_2013_2014_DJF.pdf.
    • (2014) Seasonal Bulletin on the Climate in WMO Region VI-Europe and Middle East
  • 9
    • 27544504396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate
    • Emori S., Brown S. Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005, 32.
    • (2005) Geophys. Res. Lett. , vol.32
    • Emori, S.1    Brown, S.2
  • 10
    • 84958156266 scopus 로고
    • Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample
    • Cambridge University Press
    • Fisher, R.A., Tippett, L.H.C., 1928. Limiting forms of the frequency distribution of the largest or smallest member of a sample. In: Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society. Cambridge University Press, pp. 180-190.
    • (1928) Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society , pp. 180-190
    • Fisher, R.A.1    Tippett, L.H.C.2
  • 12
    • 79551623994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New software to analyze how extremes change over time
    • Gilleland E., Katz R.W. New software to analyze how extremes change over time. Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 2011, 92:13-14.
    • (2011) Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union , vol.92 , pp. 13-14
    • Gilleland, E.1    Katz, R.W.2
  • 14
    • 33750617761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming
    • Held I.M., Soden B.J. Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Clim. 2006, 19:5686-5699.
    • (2006) J. Clim. , vol.19 , pp. 5686-5699
    • Held, I.M.1    Soden, B.J.2
  • 16
    • 84910101164 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective
    • American Meteorological Society.
    • Herring, S.C., Hoerling, M.P., Peterson, T.C., Stott, P.A., 2014. Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, vol. 95. American Meteorological Society.
    • (2014) , vol.95
    • Herring, S.C.1    Hoerling, M.P.2    Peterson, T.C.3    Stott, P.A.4
  • 18
    • 0033387073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • First-and second-order conservative remapping schemes for grids in spherical coordinates
    • Jones P.W. First-and second-order conservative remapping schemes for grids in spherical coordinates. Mon. Weather Rev. 1999, 127:2204-2210.
    • (1999) Mon. Weather Rev. , vol.127 , pp. 2204-2210
    • Jones, P.W.1
  • 19
    • 12744257640 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS
    • MetOffice.
    • Jones, R., 2004. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS. MetOffice.
    • (2004)
    • Jones, R.1
  • 20
    • 77952626106 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistics of extremes in climate change
    • Katz R.W. Statistics of extremes in climate change. Clim. Change 2010, 100:71-76.
    • (2010) Clim. Change , vol.100 , pp. 71-76
    • Katz, R.W.1
  • 22
    • 84879189415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the cmip5 ensemble
    • Kharin V.V., Zwiers F., Zhang X., Wehner M. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the cmip5 ensemble. Clim. Change 2013, 119:345-357.
    • (2013) Clim. Change , vol.119 , pp. 345-357
    • Kharin, V.V.1    Zwiers, F.2    Zhang, X.3    Wehner, M.4
  • 23
    • 0034319040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm
    • Kharin V.V., Zwiers F.W. Changes in the extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean gcm. J. Clim. 2000, 13:3760-3788.
    • (2000) J. Clim. , vol.13 , pp. 3760-3788
    • Kharin, V.V.1    Zwiers, F.W.2
  • 24
    • 34247640720 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the ipcc ensemble of global coupled model simulations
    • Kharin V.V., Zwiers F.W., Zhang X., Hegerl G.C. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the ipcc ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Clim. 2007, 20:1419-1444.
    • (2007) J. Clim. , vol.20 , pp. 1419-1444
    • Kharin, V.V.1    Zwiers, F.W.2    Zhang, X.3    Hegerl, G.C.4
  • 25
    • 0000241853 scopus 로고
    • Deterministic nonperiodic flow
    • Lorenz E.N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 1963, 20:130-141.
    • (1963) J. Atmos. Sci. , vol.20 , pp. 130-141
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 26
    • 0034019933 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generalized maximum-likelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrologic data
    • Martins E.S., Stedinger J.R. Generalized maximum-likelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrologic data. Water Resour. Res. 2000, 36:737-744.
    • (2000) Water Resour. Res. , vol.36 , pp. 737-744
    • Martins, E.S.1    Stedinger, J.R.2
  • 27
    • 84939451069 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Weather@ home-development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
    • Massey, N., Jones, R., Otto, F., Aina, T., Wilson, S., Murphy, J., Hassell, D., Yamazaki, Y., Allen, M., 2014. weather@ home-development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc . http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2455.
    • (2014) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc
    • Massey, N.1    Jones, R.2    Otto, F.3    Aina, T.4    Wilson, S.5    Murphy, J.6    Hassell, D.7    Yamazaki, Y.8    Allen, M.9
  • 28
    • 70349267603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
    • O'Gorman P.A., Schneider T. The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2009, 106:14773-14777.
    • (2009) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. , vol.106 , pp. 14773-14777
    • O'Gorman, P.A.1    Schneider, T.2
  • 32
    • 0034108544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley centre climate model. Hadam3
    • Pope V., Gallani M., Rowntree P., Stratton R. The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley centre climate model. Hadam3. Clim. Dyn. 2000, 16:123-146.
    • (2000) Clim. Dyn. , vol.16 , pp. 123-146
    • Pope, V.1    Gallani, M.2    Rowntree, P.3    Stratton, R.4
  • 33
    • 84907095419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
    • Vienna, Austria
    • R Development Core Team, 2008. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria. URL 〈〉. version 2.10.0. http://www.R-project.org.
    • (2008) R Foundation for Statistical Computing
  • 34
    • 84930211292 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins
    • Herring, S., Hoerling, M., Peterson, T., Stott, P. (Eds.), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    • Schaller, N., Otto, F., van Oldenborgh, G., Massey, N., Sparrow, S., Allen, M., 2014. The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins. In: Herring, S., Hoerling, M., Peterson, T., Stott, P. (Eds.), Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. pp. S69-S72.
    • (2014) Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective , pp. S69-S72
    • Schaller, N.1    Otto, F.2    van Oldenborgh, G.3    Massey, N.4    Sparrow, S.5    Allen, M.6
  • 35
    • 84903489236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes
    • Screen J.A. Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid-to high-latitudes. Nat. Clim. Change 2014, 4:577-582.
    • (2014) Nat. Clim. Change , vol.4 , pp. 577-582
    • Screen, J.A.1
  • 37
    • 83755186709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of north Atlantic atmospheric blocking
    • Sillmann J., Croci-Maspoli M., Kallache M., Katz R.W. Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of north Atlantic atmospheric blocking. J. Clim. 2011, 24:5899-5913.
    • (2011) J. Clim. , vol.24 , pp. 5899-5913
    • Sillmann, J.1    Croci-Maspoli, M.2    Kallache, M.3    Katz, R.W.4
  • 38
    • 84905399668 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beyond climatological extremes-assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in south-east Europe change in a warming climate
    • Sippel S., Otto F.E. Beyond climatological extremes-assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in south-east Europe change in a warming climate. Clim. Change 2014, 125:381-398.
    • (2014) Clim. Change , vol.125 , pp. 381-398
    • Sippel, S.1    Otto, F.E.2
  • 39
    • 36348954936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ostia: An operational, high resolution, real time, global sea surface temperature analysis system
    • Stark, J.D., Donlon, C.J., Martin, M.J., McCulloch, M.E., 2007. Ostia: An operational, high resolution, real time, global sea surface temperature analysis system. In: OCEANS 2007-Europe, IEEE. pp. 1-4.
    • (2007) OCEANS 2007-Europe , pp. 1-4
    • Stark, J.D.1    Donlon, C.J.2    Martin, M.J.3    McCulloch, M.E.4
  • 40
    • 24744450365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The end-to-end attribution problem. from emissions to impacts
    • Stone D.A., Allen M.R. The end-to-end attribution problem. from emissions to impacts. Clim. Change 2005, 71:303-318.
    • (2005) Clim. Change , vol.71 , pp. 303-318
    • Stone, D.A.1    Allen, M.R.2
  • 42
    • 10344259103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
    • Stott P.A., Stone D.A., Allen M.R. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 2004, 432:610-614.
    • (2004) Nature , vol.432 , pp. 610-614
    • Stott, P.A.1    Stone, D.A.2    Allen, M.R.3
  • 44
    • 84878976915 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation
    • Westra S., Alexander L.V., Zwiers F.W. Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J. Clim. 2013, 26:3904-3918.
    • (2013) J. Clim. , vol.26 , pp. 3904-3918
    • Westra, S.1    Alexander, L.V.2    Zwiers, F.W.3
  • 45
    • 70350714255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of changing climate on the frequency of absolute extreme events
    • Wigley T.M. The effect of changing climate on the frequency of absolute extreme events. Clim. Change 2009, 97:67-76.
    • (2009) Clim. Change , vol.97 , pp. 67-76
    • Wigley, T.M.1
  • 46
    • 84934268128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WCRP Grand Challenge: Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes
    • World Climate Research Program
    • Zhang, X., Hegerl, G., Seneviratne, S., Stewart, R., Zwiers, F., Alexander, L., 2014. WCRP Grand Challenge: Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes. Technical Report. World Climate Research Program. URL 〈 〉 White Paper. http://www.wcrp-climate.org/images/documents/grand_challenges/GC_Extremes_v2.pdf.
    • (2014) Technical Report
    • Zhang, X.1    Hegerl, G.2    Seneviratne, S.3    Stewart, R.4    Zwiers, F.5    Alexander, L.6


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.