Modeling Caribbean Tourism Demand: An Augmented Gravity Approach

Journal of Travel Research

Volumn 55, Issue 7, 2016, Pages 946-956

  Lorde, Troy ^a   Li, Gang ^b,c   Airey, David ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES   (Jamaica)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SURREY   (United Kingdom)

^c NORTH WEST UNIVERSITY   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Caribbean; gravity; Linder s hypothesis; tourism climate distance

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CONDITIONS; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREFERENCE BEHAVIOR; TOURISM MARKET; TOURIST DESTINATION; TRAVEL DEMAND;

CARIBBEAN ISLANDS;

EID: 84981212636     PISSN: 00472875     EISSN: 15526763     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0047287515592852     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. B.AbeggU.KoenigR.BürkiH.Elsasser1998. “Climate Impact Assessment in Tourism.” In Applied Geography and Development, edited by 81–93. Tübingen: Institute for Scientific Cooperation.
2. M.D.Agnew1995. “Tourism.” In Economic Impacts of the Hot Summer and Unusually Warm Year of 1995, edited by, 138–48. Norwich, UK: Department of the Environment Report.
3. M.AgnewJ.Palutikof2006. “Impacts of Short-Term Climate Variability in the UK on Demand for Domestic and International Tourism.” Climate Research31 (1): 109–20.
4. B.AmelungS.NichollsD.Viner2007. “Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality.” Journal of Travel Research45 (3): 285–96.
5. B.AmelungD.Viner2006. “Mediterranean Tourism: Exploring the Future with the Tourism Climate Index.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism14 (4): 349–66.
6. G.AndersonR.Blundell1982. “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Dynamic Singular Equations Systems.” Econometrica50 (6): 1559–71.
7. J.E.Anderson1979. “A Theoretical Foundation of the Gravity Equation.” American Economic Review69 (1): 106–16.
8. B.Archer1976. “Demand Forecasting in Tourism.” Bangor Occasional Papers in Economics No. 9, University of North Wales.
9. M.ArellanoO.Bover1995. “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Component Models.” Journal of Econometrics68 (1): 29–51.
10. W.M.BakerL.E.Olsson1992. “Tourism: A Climate-Sensitive Industry.” Industry and Environment15 (3): 9–15.
11. B.H.BaltagiP.EggerM.Pfaffermayr2003. “A Generalized Design for Bilateral Trade Flow Models.” Economics Letters80:391–7.
12. M.J.Baxter1979. “The Interpretation of the Distance and Attractiveness Components in Models of Recreational Trips.” Geographical Analysis11 (3): 311–15.
13. K.Benson1996. “Focus on Weather Economics.” In Window on the Economy, 4–22. London: Kleinwort Benson Research.
14. J.H.Bergstrand1985. “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence.” Review of Economics and Statistics67 (3): 474–81.
15. J.H.Bergstrand1989. “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition and the Factor Proportions Theory in International Trade.” Review of Economics and Statistics71 (1): 143–53.
16. R.W.BlundellS.R.Bond1998. “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics87:115–43.
17. J.C.BradaJ.A.Mendez1983. “Regional Economic Integration and the Volume of Intra-regional Trade: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Country Experience.” Kyklos36 (4): 589–603.
18. M.Browning1991. “A Simple Nonadditive Preference Structure for Models of Household Behavior over Time.” Journal of Political Economy99 (3): 607–37.
19. R.T.CarsonT.CenesizogluR.Parker2011. “Forecasting (Aggregate) Demand for US Commercial Air Travel.” International Journal of Forecasting27:923–41.
20. C.Choi2002. “Linder Hypothesis Revisited.” Applied Economics Letters9 (9): 601–5.
21. G.I.CrouchR.R.Perdue2014. “The Disciplinary Foundations of Tourism Research:1980-2010.” Journal of Travel Research (OnlineFirst).
22. C.R.de FreitasD.ScottG.McBoyle2008. “A Second Generation Climate Index (CIT): Specification and Verification.” International Journal of Biometerology52 (5): 399–407.
23. R.Durbarry2008. “Tourism Taxes: Implications for Tourism Demand in the UK.” Review of Development Economics12 (1): 21–36.
24. S.J.EvenettW.Keller2002. “On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation.” Journal of Political Economy110 (2): 281–316.
25. A.C.Gatrell1983. Distance and Space: A Geographical Perspective. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
26. A.J.GilesA.H.Perry1998. “The Use of a Temporal Analogue to Investigate the Possibility of Projected Global Warming on the UK Tourist Industry.” Tourism Management19 (1): 75–80.
27. S.Gil-ParejaR.Llorca-ViveroJ.A.Martinez-Serrano2007a. “The Impact of Embassies and Consulates on Tourism.” Tourism Management28 (2): 355–60.
28. S.Gil-ParejaR.Llorca-ViveroJ.A.Martinez-Serrano2007b. “The Effect of EMU on Tourism.” Review of International Economics15 (2): 302–12.
29. C.Goh2012. “Exploring Impact of Climate on Tourism Demand.” Annals of Tourism Research39 (4): 1859–83.
30. M.Gómez Martín. 2005. “Weather, Climate and Tourism. A Geographical Perspective.” Annals of Tourism Research32 (3): 571–91.
31. S.GösslingD.ScottC.M.HallJ.-P.CeronG.Dubois2012. “Consumer Behavior and Demand Response of Tourists to Climate Change.” Annals of Tourism Research39 (1): 36–58.
32. H.Gray1970. International Travel-International Trade. Lexington: Heath Lexington Books.
33. C.M.Hall2005. Tourism: Rethinking the Social Science of Mobility. Harlow: Prentice Hall.
34. J.C.Hallak2010. “A Product Quality View of the Linder Hypothesis.” Review of Economics and Statistics92 (3): 453–66.
35. C.HanP.C.B.Phillips2010. “GMM Estimation for Dynamic Panels with Fixed Effects and Strong Instruments at Unity.” Econometric Theory26 (1): 119–51.
36. K.Hayakawa2009. “On the Effect of Mean-Nonstationarity in Dynamic Panel Data Models.” Journal of Econometrics153 (2): 133–35.
37. C.HsiaoM.H.PesaranA.K.Tahmiscioglu2002. “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Fixed Effects Dynamic Panel Data Models Covering Short Time Periods.” Journal of Econometrics109:107–50.
38. W.IsardI.AzisM.DrennanR.MillerS.SaltzmanE.Thorbecke1998. Methods of Interregional and Regional Analysis. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate.
39. U.KoenigB.Abegg1997. “Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism in the Swiss Alps.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism5 (1): 46–58.
40. N.KozakM.UysalI.Birkan2008. “An Analysis of Cities Based on Tourism Supply and Climatic Conditions in Turkey.” Tourism Geographies10 (1): 81–97.
41. W.Kreisel2004. “Geography of Leisure and Tourism Research in the German-Speaking World: Three Pillars to Progress.” Tourism Geographies6 (2): 163–85.
42. F.J.Ledesma-RodríguezM.Navarro-IbáñezJ.V.Pérez-Rodríguez2010. “Panel Data and Tourism: A Case Study of Tenerife.” Tourism Economics7 (1): 75–88.
43. C.J.LeonJ.E.Arana2014. “The Economic Valuation of Climate Change Policies in Tourism: Impact of Joint Valuation, Emotions, and Information.” Journal of Travel Research (OnlineFirst).
44. A.LevinC.F.LinC.Chu2002. “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties.” Journal of Econometrics108 (1): 1–24.
45. D.LiF.MoshirianA.Sim2003. “The Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Insurance Services.” Journal of Risk and Insurance70 (2): 269–87.
46. G.LiH.SongS.F.Witt2004. “Modeling Tourism Demand: A Dynamic Linear AIDS Approach.” Journal of Travel Research43 (2): 141–50.
47. S.Linder1961. An Essay on Trade and Transformation. Stockholm: Almqvist and Wiksells.
48. H.Linnemann1966. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
49. R.G.LipseyP.O.Steiner1981. Economics. New York: Harper and Row.
50. W.LisleR.S.J.Tol2002. “Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand.” Climatic Change55 (4): 429–49.
51. R.Llorca-Vivero2008. “Terrorism and International Tourism: New Evidence.” Defense and Peace Economics19 (2): 169–88.
52. P.Lyssiotou2000. “Dynamic Analysis of British Demand for Tourism Abroad.” Empirical Economics25 (3): 421–36.
53. R.MadhavanA.Iriyama2009. “Understanding Global Flows of Venture Capital: Human Networks as the “Carrier Wave” of Globalization.” Journal of International Business Studies40 (8): 1241–59.
54. M.L.MangionR.DurbarryM.T.Sinclair2005. “Tourism Competitiveness: Price and Quality.” Tourism Economics11 (1): 45–68.
55. T.MayerS.Zignago2011. “Notes on CEPII’s Distances Measures: The GeoDist Database.” CEPII Working Paper No. 2011-25.
56. B.McKercherN.ShovalE.ParkA.Kahani2014. “The [Limited] Impact of Weather on Tourist Behavior in an Urban Destination.” Journal of Travel Research (OnlineFirst).
57. M.McPhersonM.RedfearnM.Tieslau2001. “International Trade and Developing Countries: An Empirical Investigation of the Linder Hypothesis.” Applied Economics33 (5): 649–57.
58. Z.Mieczkowski1985. “The Tourism Climatic Index: A Method of Evaluating World Climates for Tourism.” The Canadian Geographer29 (3): 220–33.
59. W.R.Moore2010. “The Impact of Climate Change on Caribbean Tourism Demand.” Current Issues in Tourism13 (5): 495–505.
60. C.L.Morley1994. “The Use of CPI for Tourism Prices in Demand Modeling.” Tourism Management15 (5): 342–46.
61. W.NaudéA.Saayman2005. “Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis.” Tourism Economics11 (3): 365–91.
62. S.Nickell1981. “Biases in Models with Fixed Effects.” Econometrica49 (6): 1417–26.
63. M.C.PeelB.L.FinlaysonT.A.McMahon2007. “Updated World Map of the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences11:1633–44.
64. B.PengH.SongG.I.CrouchS.F.Witt2014. “A Meta-analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities.” Journal of Travel Research (OnlineFirst).
65. S.Pike2002. “Destination Image Analysis: A Review of 142 Papers from 1973 to 2000.” Tourism Management23 (5): 541–9.
66. H.M.SandbergJ.L.SealeJr.T.G.Taylor2006. “History, Regionalism, and CARICOM Trade: A Gravity Model Analysis.” Journal of Development Studies42 (5): 795–811.
67. M.SansoR.CuairanF.Sanz1993. “Bilateral Trade Flows, the Gravity Equation, and the Functional Form.” Review of Economics and Statistics75 (2): 266–75.
68. M.Santana-GallegoF.J.Ledesma-RodriguezJ.V.Perez-Rodriguez2010. “Exchange Rate Regimes and Tourism.” Tourism Economics16 (1): 25–43.
69. D.ScottG.McBoyleB.Mills2003. “Climate Change and the Skiing Industry in Southern Ontario (Canada): Exploring the Importance of Snowmaking as a Technical Adaptation.” Climate Research23:171–81.
70. P.SevestreA.Trognon1985. “A Note on Autoregressive Error Component Models.” Journal of Econometrics28 (2): 231–45.
71. E.SmeralS.F.Witt1996. “Econometric Forecasts of Tourism Demand to 2005.” Annals of Tourism Demand23 (4): 891–907.
72. H.SongG.Li2008. “Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research.” Tourism Management29 (2): 203–20.
73. H.SongG.LiS.F.WittG.Athanasopoulos2011. “Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Time-Varying Parameter Structural Time Series Models.” International Journal of Forecasting27 (3): 855–69.
74. H.SongG.LiS.F.WittB.G.Fei2010. “Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?”Tourism Economics16 (1): 63–81.
75. M.M.Stack2009. “Regional Integration and Trade: Controlling for Varying Degrees of Heterogeneity in the Gravity Model.” World Economy32 (5): 772–89.
76. C.E.TaylorD.M.Knudson1973. “Area Preferences of Midwestern Campers.” Journal of Leisure Research5 (2): 39–48.
77. S.UmJ.L.Crompton1990. “Attitude Determinants in Tourism Destination Choice.” Annals of Tourism Research18 (3): 374–78.
78. UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization). 2011. Tourism Highlights: 2011 Edition. Madrid, Spain: UNWTO.
79. Y.-S.Wang2009. “The Impact of Crisis Events and Macroeconomic Activity on Taiwan’s International Inbound Tourism Demand.” Tourism Management30 (1): 75–82.
80. E.Weissenberger1986. “An Intertemporal System of Dynamic Consumer Demand Functions. European Economic Review30 (4): 859–91.
81. A.V.WilliamsW.Zelinsky1970. “On Some Patterns in International Tourist Flows.” Economic Geography46 (4): 549–67.
82. WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council). 2004. The Caribbean: The Impact of Travel and Tourism on Jobs and the Economy. London: WTTC.
83. WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council). 2011. Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2011: Caribbean. London: WTTC.
84. D.C.WuG.LiH.Song2012. “Economic analysis of tourism consumption dynamics: A time-varying parameter demand system approach.” Annals of Tourism Research39 (2): 667–85.
85. I.YeomanJ.J.LennonA.BlakeM.GaltC.GreenwoodU.McMahon-Beattie2007. “Oil Depletion: What Does This Mean for Scottish Tourism?”Tourism Management28 (5): 1354–65.