Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

Climatic Change

Volumn 137, Issue 3-4, 2016, Pages 347-362

  Buchanan, Maya K ^a   Kopp, Robert E ^b   Oppenheimer, Michael ^a,c   Tebaldi, Claudia ^d  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Rutgers University   (United States)

^c PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; FLOOD CONTROL; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; RISK MANAGEMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; SEA LEVEL; SURGE PROTECTION; TIDE GAGES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

COASTAL FLOOD RISKS; DECISION MAKERS; FLOOD PROTECTION; FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT; MEAN SEA LEVEL; PLANNING HORIZONS; RISK TOLERANCE; SEA LEVEL RISE;

FLOODS;

COASTAL ZONE; COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT; DECISION MAKING; ESTIMATION METHOD; FLOOD; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; TIDE GAUGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84978904256     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Adger W N, Dessai S, Goulden M et al (2009) Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Clim Chang 93(3-4):335–354
2. Bamber J L, Aspinall W (2013) An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nat Clim Chang 3(4):424–427
3. Bierbaum R, Lee A, Smith J et al (2014). In: Melillo J, Richmond T, Yohe G (eds) Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J07H1GGT, U.S. Global Change Research Program, pp 670–706
4. Boston (2014) Climate action plan update. Tech rep, City of Boston
5. Brown C (2010) The end of reliability. J Water Resour Plan Manag 136(2):143–145
6. Christensen J, Kumar KK et al (2013). In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK et al. (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 1217–1308
7. Church J A, Clark P U et al (2013). In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, pp 1137–1216
8. Coles S, Bawa J, Trenner L, Dorazio P (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values 208
9. Conner S (2013) Floods could overwhelm london as sea levels rise - unless thames barrier is upgraded. The Independent
10. Ellsberg D (1961) Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. The quarterly journal of economics:643–669
11. Environment Agency (2012) Thames estuary 2100. Tech rep, United Kingdom Environment Agency
12. Froyn CB (2005) Decision criteria, scientific uncertainty, and the global warming controversy. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 10(2):183–211
13. Galloway GE, Baecher GB, Plasencia D et al (2006) Assessing the adequacy of the national flood insurance program’s 1 percent flood standard Water Policy Collaborative. University of Maryland College Park, Maryland
14. Georgas N, Orton P, Blumberg A, et al. (2014) The impact of tidal phase on hurricane sandy’s flooding around new york city and long island sound. Journal of Extreme Events 1(01):1450,006
15. Haasnoot M, Kwakkel JH, Walker WE, ter Maat J (2013) Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Glob Environ Chang 23(2):485–498
16. Heal G, Millner A (2014) Reflections uncertainty and decision making in climate change economics. Rev Environ Econ Policy 8(1):120–137
17. Houser T, Hsiang S, Kopp R, Larsen K (2015) An american prospectus. Columbia University Press
18. Hunter J (2012) A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise. Clim Chang 113(2):239–252
19. Hunter J, Church J, White N, Zhang X (2013) Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Eng 71:17–27
20. Jonkman S, Kok M, Van Ledden M, Vrijling J (2009) Risk-based design of flood defence systems: a preliminary analysis of the optimal protection level for the new orleans metropolitan area. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2(3):170–181
21. Kasperson RE, Bammer G, Smithson M (2008) Coping with deep uncertainty: Challenges for environmental assessment and decision making. Uncertainty and risk: Multidisciplinary perspectives:337–47
22. Katsman CA, Sterl A, Beersma J et al (2011) Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example. Climatic change 109(3-4):617–645
23. Kopp R E, Horton R M, Little C M et al (2014) Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth’s Future 2 (8):383–406
24. Kopp RE, Hay CC, Little CM, Mitrovica JX (2015a) Geographic variability of sea-level change. Current Climate Change Reports 1(3):192–204
25. Kopp RE, Horton BP, Kemp AC, Tebaldi C (2015b) Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA. Climatic Change 132(4):693–707
26. Kunkel K, Moss R, Parris A (2015) Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment. Clim Chang:1–14
27. Kwadijk JC, Haasnoot M, Mulder JP et al (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Chang 1(5):729–740
28. Lavell A, Oppenheimer M, Diop C et al (2012) Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation:25–64
29. Lempert R, Sriver RL, Keller K, Commission CE et al (2012) Characterizing uncertain sea level rise projections to support investment decisions CEC-500-2012-056. California Energy Commission Sacramento, CA
30. Lin N, Emanuel K, Oppenheimer M, Vanmarcke E (2012) Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nat Clim Chang 2 (6):462–467
31. McInerney D, Lempert R, Keller K (2012) What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses? Clim Chang 112(3-4):547–568
32. Miller K G, Kopp R E, Horton B P, Browning J V, Kemp A C (2013) A geological perspective on sea-level rise and its impacts along the us mid-atlantic coast. Earth’s Future 1(1):3–18
33. Moser SC, Ekstrom JA (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol 107, pp 22,026–22,031
34. Neumann J E, Hudgens D E, Herter J, Martinich J (2010) Assessing sea-level rise impacts: a gis-based framework and application to coastal new jersey. Coastal management 38(4):433–455
35. Parris A, Bromirski P, Burkett V et al (2012) Global sea level rise scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. US Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate Program Office, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
36. Pfeffer W T, Harper J, O’Neel S (2008) Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science 321(5894):1340–1343
37. Ranger N, Reeder T, Lowe J (2013) Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the thames estuary 2100 project. EURO Journal on Decision Processes 1(3-4):233–262
38. Rootzén H, Katz R W (2013) Design life level: quantifying risk in a changing climate. Water Resour Res 49(9):5964–5972
39. SIRR (2013) A stronger more resilient new york. Tech rep, New York City
40. Sriver R L, Urban N M, Olson R, Keller K (2012) Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections. Clim Chang 115(3-4):893–902
41. Talke S A, Orton P, Jay D A (2014) Increasing storm tides in new york harbor, 1844–2013. Geophys Res Lett 41(9):3149–3155
42. Tebaldi C, Strauss B H, Zervas C E (2012) Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along us coasts. Environmental Research Letters 7(1):014–032
43. USACE (2015a). Key USACE flood risk management terms. TD-40, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
44. USACE (2015b) North atlantic coast comprehensive study: resilient adaptation to increasing risk. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Appendix C Tech rep
45. USGCRP (2014) U.S. Global Change Research Program sea-level rise tool for sandy recovery. Webpage URL http://www.globalchange.gov/browse/sea-level-rise-tool-sandy-recovery
46. Wahl T, Jain S, Bender J, Meyers S D, Luther M E (2015) Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major us cities. Nat Clim Chang 5(12):1093–1097
47. Willis H H (2007) Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk. Risk Anal 27(3):597–606
48. Woodward M, Gouldby B, Kapelan Z, Hames D (2013) Multiobjective optimization for improved management of flood risk. J Water Resour Plan Manag 140 (2):201–215