메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 10, Issue 2, 2005, Pages 183-211

Decision criteria, scientific uncertainty, and the global warming controversy

Author keywords

Climate policy; Decision criteria; Global warming; Greenhouse gas abatement; Irreversibility; Scientific uncertainty; Uncertain choice

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COST; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; GLOBAL WARMING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 21344456385     PISSN: 13812386     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-005-3782-9     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (68)
  • 1
    • 0041394814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision-making frameworks for climate policy under uncertainty
    • Oslo: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo
    • Aaheim, H.A. and Bretteville, C.: 2001, 'Decision-making frameworks for climate policy under uncertainty', CICERO Working Paper 2001:2. Oslo: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo.
    • (2001) CICERO Working Paper 2001:2
    • Aaheim, H.A.1    Bretteville, C.2
  • 2
    • 0043156575 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The value of the environment: Is it a matter of approach?
    • Aaheim, H.A., Aunan, K. and Seip, H.M.: 2000, 'The value of the environment: Is it a matter of approach?', Integrated Assessment 1(1), 49-61.
    • (2000) Integrated Assessment , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 49-61
    • Aaheim, H.A.1    Aunan, K.2    Seip, H.M.3
  • 3
    • 0000541635 scopus 로고
    • Utility theory without the completeness axiom
    • Aumann, R.: 1962, 'Utility theory without the completeness axiom', Econometrica 30, 445-462.
    • (1962) Econometrica , vol.30 , pp. 445-462
    • Aumann, R.1
  • 5
    • 0020469176 scopus 로고
    • Carbon Dioxide and Intergenerational Choice
    • Papers and Proceedings of the 94th Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1982)
    • d'Arge, R.C., Schulze, W.D. and Brookshire, D.S.: 1982, 'Carbon Dioxide and Intergenerational Choice', The American Economic Review, Vol. 72, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the 94th Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1982), pp. 251-256.
    • (1982) The American Economic Review , vol.72 , Issue.2 , pp. 251-256
    • D'Arge, R.C.1    Schulze, W.D.2    Brookshire, D.S.3
  • 6
    • 0000805064 scopus 로고
    • Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations
    • Arrow, K.J.: 1951, 'Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations, Econometrica 19(4), 404-437.
    • (1951) Econometrica , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 404-437
    • Arrow, K.J.1
  • 8
    • 0016153482 scopus 로고
    • Environmental preservation, uncertainty, and irreversibility
    • Arrow, K.J. and Fisher, A.C.: 1974, 'Environmental preservation, uncertainty, and irreversibility', Quarterly Journal of Economics 88(2), 312-319.
    • (1974) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.88 , Issue.2 , pp. 312-319
    • Arrow, K.J.1    Fisher, A.C.2
  • 9
    • 0009664232 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual and collective time-consistency
    • Asheim, G.B.: 1997, 'Individual and collective time-consistency', Review of Economic Studies 64, 427-443.
    • (1997) Review of Economic Studies , vol.64 , pp. 427-443
    • Asheim, G.B.1
  • 10
    • 21344434652 scopus 로고
    • Hvor bierer det hen? Utvikling av teori for en bærekraftig økonomi
    • Asheim, G.B.: 1993, 'Hvor bierer det hen? Utvikling av teori for en bærekraftig økonomi', Sosialøkonomen (4).
    • (1993) Sosialøkonomen , Issue.4
    • Asheim, G.B.1
  • 11
    • 0030274290 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming
    • Azar, C. and Sterner, T.: 1996, 'Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming', Ecological Economics 19, 169-184.
    • (1996) Ecological Economics , vol.19 , pp. 169-184
    • Azar, C.1    Sterner, T.2
  • 12
    • 56149112603 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision Criteria under Uncertainty and the Climate Problem
    • Oslo: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo
    • Bretteville, C.: 1999, 'Decision Criteria under Uncertainty and the Climate Problem', CICERO Working Paper 1999:10, Oslo: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo.
    • (1999) CICERO Working Paper 1999:10
    • Bretteville, C.1
  • 13
    • 0002340332 scopus 로고
    • Individual decision making
    • J. Kagel and A. Roth (eds.), Princeton: Princeton University Press
    • Camerer, C.: 1995, 'Individual decision making', in J. Kagel and A. Roth (eds.), The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    • (1995) The Handbook of Experimental Economics
    • Camerer, C.1
  • 14
    • 0000994118 scopus 로고
    • Rational selection of decision functions
    • Chernoff, H.: 1954, 'Rational selection of decision functions', Econometrica 22, 422-443.
    • (1954) Econometrica , vol.22 , pp. 422-443
    • Chernoff, H.1
  • 15
    • 0034234049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks
    • Chichilnisky, G.: 2000, 'An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks', Resource and Energy Economics 22, 221-231.
    • (2000) Resource and Energy Economics , vol.22 , pp. 221-231
    • Chichilnisky, G.1
  • 17
    • 84983904385 scopus 로고
    • Scientific uncertainties, public policy, and global warming: How sure is sure enough?
    • Colgazier, E.W.: 1991, 'Scientific uncertainties, public policy, and global warming: How sure is sure enough?', Policy Studies Journal 19(2), 61-72.
    • (1991) Policy Studies Journal , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 61-72
    • Colgazier, E.W.1
  • 20
    • 84957363402 scopus 로고
    • Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms
    • Ellsberg, D.: 1961, 'Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms', Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643-669.
    • (1961) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.75 , pp. 643-669
    • Ellsberg, D.1
  • 21
    • 0346042423 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Elster, J.: 1989, Nuts and Bolts, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1989) Nuts and Bolts
    • Elster, J.1
  • 22
    • 0040770656 scopus 로고
    • Utility theory and decision theory
    • London and Basingstoke: Macmillian Press Limited
    • Fishburn, P.C.: 1987, 'Utility theory and decision theory', in The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, London and Basingstoke: Macmillian Press Limited.
    • (1987) The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics
    • Fishburn, P.C.1
  • 24
    • 0030883476 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2 abatement: An overview of economic issues
    • 2 abatement: An overview of economic issues', Energy Policy 25(2), 159-172.
    • (1997) Energy Policy , vol.25 , Issue.2 , pp. 159-172
    • Grubb, M.1
  • 27
    • 84959829858 scopus 로고
    • Option values in the economics of irreplaceable assets
    • Issue Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources
    • Henry, C.: 1974, 'Option values in the economics of irreplaceable assets', The Review of Economic Studies 41, Issue Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources, 89-104.
    • (1974) The Review of Economic Studies , vol.41 , pp. 89-104
    • Henry, C.1
  • 28
    • 21444453713 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and overlapping generations
    • Howarth, R.B.: 1996, 'Climate change and overlapping generations', Contemporary Economic Policy 14(4), 100-111.
    • (1996) Contemporary Economic Policy , vol.14 , Issue.4 , pp. 100-111
    • Howarth, R.B.1
  • 29
    • 21344448052 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discounting and uncertainty in climate change policy analysis
    • Forthcoming
    • Howarth, R.B.: 2004, 'Discounting and uncertainty in climate change policy analysis', Forthcoming Land Economics.
    • (2004) Land Economics
    • Howarth, R.B.1
  • 30
    • 0002110970 scopus 로고
    • Optimality criteria for decision-making under ignorance
    • Statistics
    • Hurwicz, L.: 1951, 'Optimality criteria for decision-making under ignorance', Cowles Commission Discussion Paper, Statistics, No. 370.
    • (1951) Cowles Commission Discussion Paper , Issue.370
    • Hurwicz, L.1
  • 33
    • 21344434188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time preference, abatement costs, and international climate policy: An appraisal of IPCC 1995
    • Khanna, N. and Chapman, D.: 1996, 'Time preference, abatement costs, and international climate policy: An appraisal of IPCC 1995', Contemporary Economic Policy 14(2), 56-66.
    • (1996) Contemporary Economic Policy , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 56-66
    • Khanna, N.1    Chapman, D.2
  • 34
    • 0000125532 scopus 로고
    • Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
    • Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: 1979, 'Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk', Econometrica 47(2).
    • (1979) Econometrica , vol.47 , Issue.2
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 35
    • 77956867106 scopus 로고
    • Utility theory with uncertainty
    • Chapter 33 Edited by W. Hildenbrand and H. Sonnenschein, Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.
    • Karni, E. and Schmeidler, D.: 1991, 'Utility theory with uncertainty', Chapter 33 in Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Vol. IV, Edited by W. Hildenbrand and H. Sonnenschein, Elsevier Science Publisher B.V.
    • (1991) Handbook of Mathematical Economics, Vol. IV , vol.4
    • Karni, E.1    Schmeidler, D.2
  • 37
    • 0028595851 scopus 로고
    • George Bush versus Al Gore
    • Kolstad, C.D.: 1994, 'George Bush versus Al Gore', Energy Policy 22(9), 771-778.
    • (1994) Energy Policy , vol.22 , Issue.9 , pp. 771-778
    • Kolstad, C.D.1
  • 38
    • 0030198307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning and stock effects in environmental regulation: The case of greenhouse gas emissions
    • Kolstad, C.D.: 1996, 'Learning and stock effects in environmental regulation: The case of greenhouse gas emissions', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 31(1), 1-8.
    • (1996) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management , vol.31 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-8
    • Kolstad, C.D.1
  • 40
    • 0041353994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change and the irreversibility effect - Combining expected utility and MaxiMin
    • Lange, A.: 2003, 'Climate change and the irreversibility effect - Combining expected utility and MaxiMin', Environmental & Resource Economics 25, 417-434.
    • (2003) Environmental & Resource Economics , vol.25 , pp. 417-434
    • Lange, A.1
  • 41
    • 0034129343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust strategies for abating climate change
    • Lempert, R.J. and Schlesinger, M.E.: 2000, 'Robust strategies for abating climate change', Climate Change 45, 387-401.
    • (2000) Climate Change , vol.45 , pp. 387-401
    • Lempert, R.J.1    Schlesinger, M.E.2
  • 43
    • 0001451226 scopus 로고
    • Expecte utility' analysis without the independence axiom
    • Machina, M.J.: 1982, ''Expecte utility' analysis without the independence axiom', Econometrica 50, 277-323.
    • (1982) Econometrica , vol.50 , pp. 277-323
    • Machina, M.J.1
  • 44
    • 0001111491 scopus 로고
    • Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility models of choice under uncertainty
    • Machina, M.J.: 1989, 'Dynamic consistency and non-expected utility models of choice under uncertainty', Journal of Economic Literature XXVIII, 1622-1668.
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.28 , pp. 1622-1668
    • Machina, M.J.1
  • 46
    • 0026313907 scopus 로고
    • Buying greenhouse gas insurance
    • Manne, A.S. and Richels, R.G.: 1991, 'Buying greenhouse gas insurance', Energy Policy 19, 543-552.
    • (1991) Energy Policy , vol.19 , pp. 543-552
    • Manne, A.S.1    Richels, R.G.2
  • 48
    • 0030655142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model
    • Nordhaus, W.D. and Popp, D.: 1997, 'What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model', The Energy Journal 18(1), 1-45.
    • (1997) The Energy Journal , vol.18 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-45
    • Nordhaus, W.D.1    Popp, D.2
  • 51
    • 0009258624 scopus 로고
    • The Foundation of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, London: K. Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co.
    • Ramsey, F.: 1931, Truth and Probability, The Foundation of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays, London: K. Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co.
    • (1931) Truth and Probability
    • Ramsey, F.1
  • 52
    • 0004048289 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge, MA: Harward University Press
    • Rawls, J.: 1971, A Theory of Justice, Cambridge, MA: Harward University Press.
    • (1971) A Theory of Justice
    • Rawls, J.1
  • 53
    • 0000200672 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Differentiation, leaders, and fairness: Negotiating climate commitments in the European community
    • Ringius, L.: 1999, 'Differentiation, leaders, and fairness: Negotiating climate commitments in the European community', International Negotiation 4, 133-166.
    • (1999) International Negotiation , vol.4 , pp. 133-166
    • Ringius, L.1
  • 55
    • 0001974946 scopus 로고
    • Some economics of global warming
    • Schelling, T.C.: 1992, 'Some economics of global warming', American Economic Review 82(1), 1-14.
    • (1992) American Economic Review , vol.82 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-14
    • Schelling, T.C.1
  • 56
    • 0029521203 scopus 로고
    • Intergenerational discounting
    • Schelling, T.C.: 1995, 'Intergenerational discounting', Energy Policy 23(4/5), 395-401.
    • (1995) Energy Policy , vol.23 , Issue.4-5 , pp. 395-401
    • Schelling, T.C.1
  • 57
    • 0001333688 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity
    • Schmeidler, D.: 1989, 'Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity', Econometrica 57(3), 571-587.
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 571-587
    • Schmeidler, D.1
  • 58
    • 0002187412 scopus 로고
    • The economics of resources or the resources of economics - Richard T. Ely Lecture
    • Papers and Proceedings Reprinted in Dorfman and Dorfman (eds.) (1993)
    • Solow, R.M.: 1974, 'The economics of resources or the resources of economics - Richard T. Ely Lecture', American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 64, 1-14 (Reprinted in Dorfman and Dorfman (eds.) (1993)).
    • (1974) American Economic Review , vol.64 , pp. 1-14
    • Solow, R.M.1
  • 59
    • 0042699614 scopus 로고
    • A rehabilitation of the principle of insufficient reason
    • Sinn, H.-W.: 1980, 'A rehabilitation of the principle of insufficient reason', The Quarterly Journal of Economics 94(3), 493-506.
    • (1980) The Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.94 , Issue.3 , pp. 493-506
    • Sinn, H.-W.1
  • 61
    • 0029511071 scopus 로고
    • Discounting in integrated assessments of climate change
    • Toth, F.L.: 1995, 'Discounting in integrated assessments of climate change', Energy Policy 23, 403.
    • (1995) Energy Policy , vol.23 , pp. 403
    • Toth, F.L.1
  • 62
    • 0028994091 scopus 로고
    • The damage costs of climate change. Toward more comprehensive calculations
    • Tol, R.S.: 1995, 'The damage costs of climate change. Toward more comprehensive calculations', Environmental and Resource Economics 5, 353-374.
    • (1995) Environmental and Resource Economics , vol.5 , pp. 353-374
    • Tol, R.S.1
  • 63
    • 0036205963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part I: Benchmark estimates
    • Tol, R.S.: 2002, 'Estimates of the damage costs of climate change, Part I: Benchmark estimates', Environmental and Resource Economics 21, 47-73.
    • (2002) Environmental and Resource Economics , vol.21 , pp. 47-73
    • Tol, R.S.1
  • 64
    • 0004056561 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discussion Paper No. 9601, Department of Economics, University of Southampton
    • Ulph, A. and Ulph, D.: 1996, 'Global warming, irreversibility and learning', Discussion Paper No. 9601, Department of Economics, University of Southampton.
    • (1996) Global Warming, Irreversibility and Learning
    • Ulph, A.1    Ulph, D.2
  • 66
    • 0032211507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why the far distant future should be discounted at the lowest possible rate
    • Weitzman, M.L.: 1998, 'Why the far distant future should be discounted at the lowest possible rate', Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 36, 201-208.
    • (1998) Journal of Environmental Economics and Management , vol.36 , pp. 201-208
    • Weitzman, M.L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.