A Model to Predict the Risk of Keratinocyte Carcinomas

Journal of Investigative Dermatology

Volumn 136, Issue 6, 2016, Pages 1247-1254

  Whiteman, David C ^a,e   Thompson, Bridie S ^a,e   Thrift, Aaron P ^b   Hughes, Maria Celia ^a   Muranushi, Chiho ^a,c   Neale, Rachel E ^a,e   Green, Adele C ^a,d,e   Olsen, Catherine M ^a,e   Webb, Penelope M ^e   Jackman, Lea M ^e   Ranieri, Barbara A ^e   Cicero, Rebekah A ^e  

^a QIMR BERGHOFER MEDICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Australia)

^b BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

^e NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; CANCER RISK; CANCER SURGERY; COHORT ANALYSIS; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; FEMALE; HUMAN; KERATINOCYTE CARCINOMA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODEL; ODDS RATIO; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SKIN CARCINOMA; SKIN COLOR; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; CARCINOMA, BASAL CELL; CARCINOMA, SQUAMOUS CELL; COMPARATIVE STUDY; IMMUNOHISTOCHEMISTRY; INCIDENCE; KERATINOCYTE; NEEDLE BIOPSY; PATHOLOGY; PATHOPHYSIOLOGY; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PROGNOSIS; QUEENSLAND; REPRODUCIBILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEX RATIO; SKIN NEOPLASMS; STATISTICAL MODEL;

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; AREA UNDER CURVE; BIOPSY, NEEDLE; CARCINOMA, BASAL CELL; CARCINOMA, SQUAMOUS CELL; COHORT STUDIES; FEMALE; HUMANS; IMMUNOHISTOCHEMISTRY; INCIDENCE; KERATINOCYTES; LOGISTIC MODELS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; ODDS RATIO; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; QUEENSLAND; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEX DISTRIBUTION; SKIN NEOPLASMS;

EID: 84978371413     PISSN: 0022202X     EISSN: 15231747     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jid.2016.02.008     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Cancer Council Australia, Position statement: screening and early detection of skin cancer. Cancer Council Australia; 2007.
2. Chen, A.C., Martin, A.J., Choy, B., Fernandez-Penas, P., Dalziell, R.A., McKenzie, C.A., et al. A phase 3 randomized trial of nicotinamide for skin-cancer chemoprevention. New Engl J Med 373 (2015), 1618–1626.
3. Choudhury, K., Volkmer, B., Greinert, R., Christophers, E., Breitbart, E.W., Effectiveness of skin cancer screening programmes. Br J Dermatol 167:Suppl. 2 (2012), 94–98.
4. Eastham, J.A., May, R., Robertson, J.L., Sartor, O., Kattan, M.W., Development of a nomogram that predicts the probability of a positive prostate biopsy in men with an abnormal digital rectal examination and a prostate-specific antigen between 0 and 4 ng/mL. Urology 54 (1999), 709–713.
5. English, D.R., Armstrong, B.K., Kricker, A., Reproducibility of reported measurements of sun exposure in a case-control study. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 7 (1998), 857–863.
6. Housman, T.S., Feldman, S.R., Williford, P.M., Fleischer, A.B., Goldman, N.D., Acostamadiedo, J.M., et al. Skin cancer is among the most costly of all cancers to treat for the Medicare population. J Am Acad Dermatol 48 (2003), 425–429.
7. Katalinic, A., Eisemann, N., Waldmann, A., Skin Cancer Screening in Germany. Dtsch Arztebl Int 112 (2015), 629–634.
8. Lomas, A., Leonardi-Bee, J., Bath-Hextall, F., A systematic review of worldwide incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer. Br J Dermatol 166 (2012), 1069–1080.
9. Moons, K.G., Altman, D.G., Vergouwe, Y., Royston, P., Prognosis and prognostic research: application and impact of prognostic models in clinical practice. Br Med J, 338, 2009, b606.
10. Morze, C.J., Olsen, C.M., Perry, S.L., Jackman, L.M., Ranieri, B.A., O'Brien, S.M., et al. Good test-retest reproducibility for an instrument to capture self-reported melanoma risk factors. J Clin Epidemiol 65 (2012), 1329–1336.
11. Olsen, C.M., Green, A.C., Neale, R.E., Webb, P.M., Cicero, R.A., Jackman, L.M., et al. Cohort profile: the QSkin Sun and Health Study. Int J Epidemiol, 41, 2012 929–929i.
12. Olsen, C.M., Neale, R.E., Green, A.C., Webb, P.M., Study, Q.S., Epigene, S., et al. Independent validation of six melanoma risk prediction models. J Invest Dermatol 135 (2015), 1377–1384.
13. Olsen, C.M., Williams, P.F., Whiteman, D.C., Turning the tide? Changes in treatment rates for keratinocyte cancers in Australia 2000 through 2011. J Am Acad Dermatol 71 (2014), 21–26.e1.
14. Paul, P., Pennell, M.L., Lemeshow, S., Standardizing the power of the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test in large data sets. Stat Med 32 (2013), 67–80.
15. Rockhill, B., Spiegelman, D., Byrne, C., Hunter, D.J., Colditz, G.A., Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention. J Natl Cancer Inst 93 (2001), 358–366.
16. Stang, A., Jockel, K.H., Does skin cancer screening save lives? A detailed analysis of mortality time trends in Schleswig-Holstein and Germany. Cancer 122 (2015), 432–437.
17. Steffen, A., MacInnis, R.J., Joshy, G., Giles, G.G., Banks, E., Roder, D., Development and validation of a risk score predicting risk of colorectal cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 23 (2014), 2543–2552.
18. Sterne, J.A., White, I.R., Carlin, J.B., Spratt, M., Royston, P., Kenward, M.G., et al. Multiple imputation for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research: potential and pitfalls. Br Med J, 338, 2009, b2393.
19. Thompson, B.S., Olsen, C.M., Subrmaniam, P., Neale, R., Whiteman, D.C., Medicare claims data reliably identify treatments for basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma: a prospective cohort study [e-pub ahead of print]. Aust New Zealand J Public Health, 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12478.
20. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The surgeon general's call to action to prevent skin cancer. 2014, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Surgeon General, Washington, DC.
21. U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Screening for skin cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation statement. Ann Int Med 150 (2009), 188–193.
22. van der Mei, I.A., Blizzard, L., Ponsonby, A.L., Dwyer, T., Validity and reliability of adult recall of past sun exposure in a case-control study of multiple sclerosis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 15 (2006), 1538–1544.
23. Vuong, K., McGeechan, K., Armstrong, B.K., Cust, A.E., Risk prediction models for incident primary cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review. JAMA Dermatol 150 (2014), 434–444.
24. Whiteman, D., Predicting melanoma risk: theory, practice, and future challenges. Melanoma Management 1 (2014), 105–114.
25. Yu, C.L., Li, Y., Freedman, D.M., Fears, T.R., Kwok, R., Chodick, G., et al. Assessment of lifetime cumulative sun exposure using a self-administered questionnaire: reliability of two approaches. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 18 (2009), 464–471.