Sensitivities of extreme precipitation to global warming are lower over mountains than over oceans and plains

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 13, 2016, Pages 4779-4791

  Shi, Xiaoming ^a,b   Durran, Dale ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b 109 McLaughlin Hall   (United States)

Author keywords

Atm ocean structure phenomena; Circulation dynamics; Climate change; Extreme events; Mountain waves; Orographic effects; Physical meteorology and climatology; Rainfall; Vertical motion

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DYNAMICS; GLOBAL WARMING; LANDFORMS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); RAIN; STORMS;

CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; EXTREME EVENTS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE; MOUNTAIN WAVE; OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS; SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY; VERTICAL MOTIONS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; EXTREME EVENT; GLOBAL WARMING; METEOROLOGY; MOUNTAIN ENVIRONMENT; OROGRAPHIC EFFECT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84977575635     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0576.1     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Allen, M., and W. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232, doi:10.1038/nature01092
2. Attema, J. J., J. M. Loriaux, and G. Lenderink, 2014: Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 014003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014003
3. Booth, J. F., S. Wang, and L. Polvani, 2013: Midlatitude storms in a moister world: Lessons from idealized baroclinic life cycle experiments. Climate Dyn., 41, 787-802, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1472-3
4. Brayshaw, D. J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn, 2009: The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: Land-sea contrast and orography. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2539-2558, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3078.1
5. Brayshaw, D. J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn, 2011: The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part II: Sea surface temperatures. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 1784-1805, doi:10.1175/2011JAS3674.1
6. Chang, S. W., R. J. Alliss, and S. Raman, 1993: SSM/I observations of ERICA IOP 4 marine cyclone: A comparison with in situ observations and model simulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2452-2464, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2452:SOOEIM>2.0.CO;2
7. Diffenbaugh, N. S., J. S. Pal, R. J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi, 2005: Finescale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 15 774-15 778, doi:10.1073/pnas.0506042102
8. Dominguez, F.,E.Rivera, D. Lettenmaier, andC.Castro, 2012: Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05803, doi:10.1029/2011GL050762
9. Emanuel, K. A., M. Fantini, and A. J. Thorpe, 1987: Baroclinic instability in an environment of small stability to slantwise moist convection. Part I: Two-dimensional models. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1559-1573, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<1559: BIIAEO>2.0.CO;2
10. Emori, S., and S. J. Brown, 2005: Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17706, doi:10.1029/2005GL023272
11. Frierson, D. M. W., I. M. Held, and P. Zurita-Gotor, 2006: A grayradiation aquaplanet moist GCM. Part I: Static stability and eddy scale. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2548-2566, doi:10.1175/JAS3753.1
12. Gochis, D., and Coauthors, 2015: The great Colorado flood of September 2013. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1461-1487, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00241.1
13. Held, I. M., 2005: The gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1609-1614, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1609
14. Held, I. M., and B. Soden, 2006: Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699, doi:10.1175/JCLI3990.1
15. Hsu, P.-C., T. Li, and H. Murakami, 2014: Moisture asymmetry and MJO eastward propagation in an aquaplanet general circulation model. J. Climate, 27, 8747-8760, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00148.1
16. Kendon, E. J., N. M. Roberts, H. J. Fowler, M. J. Roberts, S. C. Chan, and C. A. Senior, 2014:Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nat. Climate Change, 4, 570-576, doi:10.1038/nclimate2258
17. Kharin, V. V., F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and G. C. Hegerl, 2007: Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1419-1444, doi:10.1175/JCLI4066.1
18. Kirshbaum, D. J., and D. R. Durran, 2004: Factors governing cellular convection in orographic precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 682-698, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0682: FGCCIO>2.0.CO;2
19. Klemp, J. B., and D. R. Lilly, 1975: The dynamics of wave-induced downslope winds. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 320-339, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0320:TDOWID>2.0.CO;2
20. Lenderink, G., and E. van Meijgaard, 2008: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nat. Geosci., 1, 511-514, doi:10.1038/ngeo262
21. Maroon, E. A., D. M. W. Frierson, and D. S. Battisti, 2015: The tropical precipitation response to Andes topography and ocean heat fluxes in an aquaplanet model. J. Climate, 28, 381-398, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00188.1
22. Medeiros, B., B. Stevens, I. M. Held, M. Zhao, D. L. Williamson, J. G. Olson, and C. S. Bretherton, 2008: Aquaplanets, climate sensitivity, and low clouds. J. Climate, 21, 4974-4991, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI1995.1
23. O'Gorman, P. A., 2012: Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change. Nat. Geosci., 5, 697-700, doi:10.1038/ngeo1568
24. O'Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider, 2009a: The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 14 773-14 777, doi:10.1073/pnas.0907610106
25. O'Gorman, P. A., and T. Schneider, 2009b: Scaling of precipitation extremes over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized GCM. J. Climate, 22, 5676-5685, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2701.1
26. Pall, P., T.Aina,D.A. Stone, P.A. Stott, T.Nozawa, A. G.Hilberts, D. Lohmann, and M. R. Allen, 2011: Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature, 470, 382-385, doi:10.1038/nature09762
27. Pfahl, S., P. A. O'Gorman, and M. S. Singh, 2015: Extratropical cyclones in idealized simulations of changed climates. J. Climate, 28, 9373-9392, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00816.1
28. Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, G. A. Wick, S. I. Gutman, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, and A. B. White, 2006: Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13801, doi:10.1029/2006GL026689
29. Rasmussen,K. L., and R. A. Houze, 2012:Aflash-flooding storm at the steep edge of high terrain. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1713-1724, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00236.1
30. 2. J. Climate, 27, 3938-3956, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00460.1
31. Shi, X., and D. Durran, 2015: Estimating the response of extreme precipitation over midlatitude mountains to global warming. J. Climate, 28, 4246-4262, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00750.1
32. Siler, N., and D. Durran, 2015: Assessing the impact of the tropopause on mountain waves and orographic precipitation using linear theory and numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 803-820, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0200.1
33. Stevens, B., and S. Bony, 2013: Climate change. What are climate models missing? Science, 340, 1053-1054, doi:10.1126/science.1237554
34. Takahashi, K., 2009: Radiative constraints on the hydrological cycle in an idealized radiative-convective equilibrium model. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 77-91, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2797.1
35. Vallis, G. K.,P.Zurita-Gotor, C. Cairns, and J. Kidston, 2015: Response of the large-scale structure of the atmosphere to global warming. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1479-1501, doi:10.1002/qj.2456
36. Voigt, A., and T. A. Shaw, 2015: Circulation response to warming shaped by radiative changes of clouds and water vapour. Nat. Geosci., 8, 102-106, doi:10.1038/ngeo2345
37. Willison, J., W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann, 2013: The importance of resolving mesoscale latent heating in the North Atlantic storm track. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2234-2250, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0226.1
38. Willison, J., W. A. Robinson, and G. M. Lackmann, 2015: North Atlantic storm-track sensitivity to warming increases with model resolution. J. Climate, 28, 4513-4524, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00715.1
39. Zhao, M., I.M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM. J. Climate, 22, 6653-6678, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1