Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

Water Resources Research

Volumn 52, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 1026-1043

  Alfonso, L ^a   Mukolwe, M M ^a,b   Di Baldassarre, G ^c  

^a UNESCO IHE INSTITUTE FOR WATER EDUCATION   (Netherlands)

^b MASINDE MULIRO UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Kenya)

^c UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

decision under uncertainty; floodplain management; land use planning; PFMs; Value of Information

Indexed keywords

BANKS (BODIES OF WATER); FLOOD CONTROL; FLOODS; HAZARDS; LAND USE; MAPPING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY; FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT; LAND USE PLANNING; PFMS; VALUE OF INFORMATION;

DECISION MAKING;

DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; FLOOD; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOODPLAIN; LAND USE CHANGE; LAND USE PLANNING; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; MAPPING METHOD; NATURAL HAZARD; PROBABILITY; SPATIAL PLANNING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FRANCE;

EID: 84976241887     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017378     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Alfonso, L., (2010), Optimisation of Monitoring Networks for Water Systems: Information Theory, Value of Information and Public Participation, CRC Press, Delft Univ. of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.
2. Alfonso, L., and, R. Price, (2012), Coupling hydrodynamic models and value of information for designing stage monitoring networks, Water Resour. Res., 48, W08530, doi: 10.1029/2012WR012040.
3. Alfonso, L., and, M. Tefferi, (2015), Effects of uncertain control in transport of water in a river-wetland system of the low Magdalena River, Colombia, in Transport of Water Versus Transport Over Water, edited by, C. Ocampo-Martinez, and, R. R. Negenborn, pp. 131-144, Springer, Switzerland, doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-16133-4-8.
4. Alfonso, L., A. Lobbrecht, and, R. Price, (2010), Optimization of water level monitoring network in polder systems using information theory, Water Resour. Res., 46, W12553, doi: 10.1029/2009WR008953.
5. Alfonso, L., L. He, A. Lobbrecht, and, R. Price, (2013), Information theory applied to evaluate the discharge monitoring network of the Magdalena River, J. Hydroinformatics, 15 (1), 211-228.
6. Ammar, K., M. McKee, and, J. Kaluarachchi, (2009), Bayesian method for groundwater quality monitoring network analysis, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 137, 51-61.
7. Arnell, N., and, S. Gosling, (2014), The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Clim. Change, 1-15, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5.
8. Aronica, G., B. Hankin, and, K. Beven, (1998), Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data, Adv. Water Resour., 22 (4), 349-365, doi: 10.1016/S0309-1708(98)00017-7.
9. Bates, P. D., M. S. Horritt, G. Aronica, and, K. Beven, (2004), Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data, Hydrol. Processes, 18 (17), 3347-3370, doi: 10.1002/hyp.1499.
10. Bates, P. D., M. S. Horritt, and, T. J. Fewtrell, (2010), A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling, J. Hydrol., 387 (1), 33-45.
11. Borisova, T., J. Shortle, R. D. Horan, and, D. Abler, (2005), Value of information for water quality management, Water Resour. Res., 41, W06004, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003576.
12. Bouma, J. A., H. J. van der Woerd, and, O. J. Kuik, (2009), Assessing the value of information for water quality management in the North Sea, J. Environ. Manage., 90 (2), 1280-1288.
13. Brisson, N., P. Gate, D. Gouache, G. Charmet, F.-X. Oury, and, F. Huard, (2010), Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France, Field Crops Res., 119 (1), 201-212.
14. CGED (2015), Évolution du prix de l'immobilier à la vente et à la location (appartements et maisons), Historique de 1936 à 2015 en France et de 1200 à 2015 à Paris, edited. [Available at http://www.cgedd.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/prix-immobilier-evolution-1200-a1048.html, accessed 15 Feb. 2015.]
15. Di Baldassarre, G., and, P. Claps, (2010), A hydraulic study on the applicability of flood rating curves, Hydrol. Res., 42 (1), 10-19.
16. Di Baldassarre, G., and, A. Montanari, (2009), Uncertainty in river discharge observations: A quantitative analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13 (6), 913-921.
17. Di Baldassarre, G., G. Schumann, P. D. Bates, J. E. Freer, and, K. J. Beven, (2010), Flood-plain mapping: A critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches, Hydrol. Sci. J., 55 (3), 364-376.
18. Dottori, F., G. Di Baldassarre, and, E. Todini, (2013), Detailed data is welcome, but with a pinch of salt: Accuracy, precision, and uncertainty in flood inundation modeling, Water Resour. Res., 49, 6079-6085, doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20406.
19. Evrard, O., C. Heitz, M. Liegeois, J. Boardman, K. Vandaele, A. V. Auzet, and, B. van Wesemael, (2010), A comparison of management approaches to control muddy floods in central Belgium, northern France and southern England, Land Degrad. Dev., 21 (4), 322-335.
20. Flageollet, J.-C., O. Maquaire, and, D. Weber, (1996), The temporal stability and activity of landslides in Europe with respect to climatic change: the Barcelonnette study case, Final National Report, in The Temporal Stability and Activity of Landslides in Europe with respect to Climatic Change, CEC- Programme TESLEC EV5V-CT94-0454, edited by R. Dikau, pp. 27-86, European Commission, Brussels.
21. Giupponi, C., V. Mojtahed, A. K. Gain, C. Biscaro, and, S. Balbi, (2015), Integrated risk assessment of water related disasters, in Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, edited by, P. Paron, and, G. Di Baldassarre, pp. 163-200, Elsevier, Boston.
22. Green, C., C. Viavattene, and, P. Thompson, (2011), Guidance for assessing flood losses, Final Rep. WP6.1, Flood Hazard Res. Cent.-Middlesex Univ., London, U. K.
23. Greiving, S., and, M. Angignard, (2014), Disaster mitigation by spatial planning, in Mountain Risks: From Prediction to Management and Governance, edited by, T. Van Asch, et al., pp. 287-302, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-6769-0-10.
24. Hall, J., S. Tarantola, P. Bates, and, M. Horritt, (2005), Distributed sensitivity analysis of flood inundation model calibration, J. Hydraul. Eng., 131 (2), 117-126, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2005)131:2(117).
25. Hirabayashi, Y., R. Mahendran, S. Koirala, L. Konoshima, D. Yamazaki, S. Watanabe, H. Kim, and, S. Kanae, (2013), Global flood risk under climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3 (9), 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911.
26. Hirshleifer, J., and, J. G. Riley, (1979), The analytics of uncertainty and information-an expository survey, J. Econ. Lit., 17 (4), 1375-1421.
27. Horritt, M., (2006), A methodology for the validation of uncertain flood inundation models, J. Hydrol., 326 (1), 153-165.
28. Horritt, M., and, P. Bates, (2002), Evaluation of 1D and 2D numerical models for predicting river flood inundation, J. Hydrol., 268 (1), 87-99.
29. Horritt, M., D. Mason, and, A. Luckman, (2001), Flood boundary delineation from synthetic aperture radar imagery using a statistical active contour model, Int. J. Remote Sens., 22 (13), 2489-2507.
30. Horritt, M., G. Di Baldassarre, P. Bates, and, A. Brath, (2007), Comparing the performance of a 2-D finite element and a 2-D finite volume model of floodplain inundation using airborne SAR imagery, Hydrol. Processes, 21 (20), 2745-2759.
31. Howard, R. A., (1966), Information value theory, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern., 2 (1), 22-26.
32. Howard, R. A., (1968), The foundations of decision analysis, IEEE Trans. Syst. Sci. Cybern., 4 (3), 211-219.
33. Institut National De La Statistique Et Des Etudes Economiques (INSEE) (2006), Cost of Construction Index, Paris, France. [Available at http://www.insee.fr, accessed 11 Sep. 2014.]
34. Kahneman, D., and, A. Tversky, (1979), Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.
35. Khader, A., D. Rosenberg, and, M. McKee, (2012), A decision tree model to estimate the value of information provided by a groundwater quality monitoring network, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9 (12), 13,805-13,837, doi: 10.5194/hessd-9-13805-2012.
36. Kok, M., (2001), Stage-damage functions for the Meuse River Floodplain, Communication Paper to the Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy, 10 pp.
37. Kreibich, H., J. C. van den Bergh, L. M. Bouwer, P. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, C. Green, S. Hallegatte, I. Logar, V. Meyer, and, R. Schwarze, (2014), Costing natural hazards, Nat. Clim. Change, 4 (5), 303-306.
38. Krzysztofowicz, R., (2001), The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, J. Hydrol., 249 (1), 2-9.
39. Li, C., V. P. Singh, and, A. K. Mishra, (2012), Entropy theory-based criterion for hydrometric network evaluation and design: Maximum information minimum redundancy, Water Resour. Res., 48, W05521, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011251.
40. Lung, T., C. Lavalle, R. Hiederer, A. Dosio, and, L. M. Bouwer, (2013), A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change, Global Environ. Change, 23 (2), 522-536, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.009.
41. Merz, B., A. H. Thieken, and, M. Gocht, (2007), Flood risk mapping at the local scale: Concepts and challenges, in Flood Risk Management in Europe, edited by, S. Begum, M. F. Stive, and, J. Hall, pp. 231-251, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, doi: 10.1007/978-1-4020-4200-3-13.
42. Messner, F., E. Penning-Rowsell, C. Green, V. Meyer, S. Tunstall, and, A. van der Veen, (2007), Evaluating flood damages: Guidance and recommendations on principles and methods, FLOODsite Rep. T09-06-01, 176 pp., FLOODsite Consortium, Wallingford, U. K.
43. Mohleji, S., and, R. Pielke, (2014), Reconciliation of trends in global and regional economic losses from weather events: 1980-2008, Nat. Hazards Rev., 15 (4), 04014009, doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000141.
44. Montanari, A., (2007), What do we mean by 'uncertainty'? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology, Hydrol. Processes, 21 (6), 841-845, doi: 10.1002/hyp.6623.
45. Neal, J., G. Schumann, and, P. Bates, (2012), A subgrid channel model for simulating river hydraulics and floodplain inundation over large and data sparse areas, Water Resour. Res., 48, W11506, doi: 10.1029/2012WR012514.
46. Pal, N. R., and, S. K. Pal, (1993), A review on image segmentation techniques, Pattern Recognition, 26 (9), 1277-1294.
47. Pappenberger, F., and, K. J. Beven, (2006), Ignorance is bliss: Or seven reasons not to use uncertainty analysis, Water Resour. Res., 42, W05302, doi: 10.1029/2005WR004820.
48. Pappenberger, F., K. Beven, M. Horritt, and, S. Blazkova, (2005), Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations, J. Hydrol., 302 (1-4), 46-69, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.036.
49. Parisi, V. R., (2002), Floodplain management and mitigation in France, paper presented at Report on Disaster Mitigation in Urbanized Areas Workshop, Paris.
50. Parkes, B. L., H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J. Neal, and, D. Demeritt, (2013), Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level, Earth Interact., 17, 1-27.
51. Pottier, N., E. Penning-Rowsell, S. Tunstall, and, G. Hubert, (2005), Land use and flood protection: Contrasting approaches and outcomes in France and in England and Wales, Appl. Geogr., 25 (1), 1-27.
52. Ramirez, J., W. L. Adamowicz, K. W. Easter, and, T. Graham-Tomasi, (1988), Ex post analysis of flood control: Benefit-cost analysis and the value of information, Water Resour. Res., 24 (8), 1397-1405.
53. Reichard, E. G., and, J. S. Evans, (1989), Assessing the value of hydrogeologic information for risk-based remedial action decisions, Water Resour. Res., 25 (7), 1451-1460.
54. Roberts, M. J., D. Schimmelpfennig, M. J. Livingston, and, E. Ashley, (2009), Estimating the value of an early-warning system, Rev. Agric. Econ., 31 (2), 303-329.
55. Rodriguez-Iturbe, I., and, J. M. Mejia, (1974), The design of rainfall networks in space and time, Water Resour. Res., 10 (4), 713-728.
56. Romanowicz, R., and, K. Beven, (2003), Estimation of flood inundation probabilities as conditioned on event inundation maps, Water Resour. Res., 39 (3), 1073, doi: 10.1029/2001WR001056.
57. Ronco, P., V. Gallina, S. Torresan, A. Zabeo, E. Semenzin, A. Critto, and, A. Marcomini, (2014), The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards-Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18 (12), 5399-5414, doi: 10.5194/hess-18-5399-2014.
58. Ronco, P., M. Bullo, S. Torresan, A. Critto, R. Olschewski, M. Zappa, and, A. Marcomini, (2015), KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards-Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19 (3), 1561-1576, doi: 10.5194/hess-19-1561-2015.
59. RTM (2009), Plan de Prevention des Risques Naturels Previsibles- Note de Presentation-Commune de Barcelonnette [in French], report no 2009-2699, Serv. Dep. de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne des Alpes de Haute-Provence, Haute-Provence, France.
60. Sali, E., and, H. Wolfson, (1992), Texture classification in aerial photographs and satellite data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 13 (18), 3395-3408.
61. Samuel, J., P. Coulibaly, and, J. Kollat, (2013), CRDEMO: Combined regionalization and dual entropy-multiobjective optimization for hydrometric network design, Water Resour. Res., 49, 8070-8089, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014058.
62. Sayers, P., G. Galloway, E. Penning-Rowsell, L. Yuanyuan, S. Fuxin, C. Yiwei, W. Kang, T. Le Quesne, L. Wang, and, Y. Guan, (2015), Strategic flood management: Ten 'golden rules' to guide a sound approach, International Journal of River Basin Management, 13 (2), 137-151, doi: 10.1080/15715124.2014.902378.
63. Shaghaghian, M., and, M. Abedini, (2013), Rain gauge network design using coupled geostatistical and multivariate techniques, Sci. Iranica, 20 (2), 259-269.
64. Shaqadan, A., (2008), Decision analysis considering welfare impacts in water resources using the benefit transfer approach, PhD dissertation, Utah State Univ., Logan.
65. Solomatine, D. P., and, D. L. Shrestha, (2009), A novel method to estimate model uncertainty using machine learning techniques, Water Resour. Res., 45, W00B11, doi: 10.1029/2008WR006839.
66. Verkade, J., and, M. Werner, (2011), Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss, 8, 6639-6681.
67. Von Neumann, J., and, O. Morgenstern, (1947), Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, N. J.
68. Wagner, J. M., U. Shamir, and, H. R. Nemati, (1992), Groundwater quality management under uncertainty: Stochastic programming approaches and the value of information, Water Resour. Res, 28 (5), 1233-1246.