Changes of storm properties in the United States: Observations and multimodel ensemble projections

Global and Planetary Change

Volumn 142, Issue , 2016, Pages 41-52

  Jiang, Peng ^a   Yu, Zhongbo ^b   Gautam, Mahesh R ^c   Yuan, Feifei ^d   Acharya, Kumud ^a  

^a DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

^b HOHAI UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES   (United States)

^d LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Multi model ensembles; NARCCAP RCMs; Percentage changes; Storm properties

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; STORMS;

FUTURE PROJECTIONS; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; NARCCAP RCMS; PERCENTAGE CHANGES; PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS; REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SEASONAL VARIATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; FUTURE PROSPECT; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL VARIATION; STORM SURGE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84971667615     PISSN: 09218181     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.001     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Adams D.K., Comrie A.C. The north American monsoon. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1997, 78(10):2197-2213.
2. Adams R.M., Hurd B.H., Lenhart S., Leary N. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Clim. Res. 1998, 11(1):19-30.
3. Anagnostopoulos G., Koutsoyiannis D., Christofides A., Efstratiadis A., Mamassis N. A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2010, 55(7):1094-1110.
4. Angel J.R., Palecki M.A., Hollinger S.E. Storm precipitation in the United States. Part II: soil erosion characteristics. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2005, 44(6):947-959.
5. Barnett T.P., Adam J.C., Lettenmaier D.P. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 2005, 438(7066):303-309.
6. Brown L., Foster G. Storm erosivity using idealized intensity distributions. Trans. Am. Soc. Agric. Eng. 1987, 30:379-386.
7. Cayan D.R., et al. Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2010, 107(50):21271-21276.
8. Chen M., Dickinson R.E., Zeng X., Hahmann A.N. Comparison of precipitation observed over the continental United States to that simulated by a climate model. J. Clim. 1996, 9(9):2233-2249.
9. Chow V.T., Maidment D.R., Mays L.W. Applied Hydrology 1988, Tata McGraw-Hill Education, New York.
10. Dai A. Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models. J. Clim. 2006, 19(18):4605-4630.
11. Dai A., Trenberth K.E. The diurnal cycle and its depiction in the Community Climate System Model. J. Clim. 2004, 17(5):930-951.
12. Dai A., Giorgi F., Trenberth K.E. Observed and model-simulated diurnal cycles of precipitation over the contiguous United States. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. (1984-2012) 1999, 104(D6):6377-6402.
13. Di Castri F. Climatographical Comparisons Between Chile and the Western Coast of North America, Mediterranean Type Ecosystems 1973, 21-36. Springer.
14. Doblas-Reyes F., Pavan V., Stephenson D. The skill of multi-model seasonal forecasts of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation. Clim. Dyn. 2003, 21(5-6):501-514.
15. Douglas M.W., Maddox R.A., Howard K., Reyes S. The Mexican monsoon. J. Clim. 1993, 6(8):1665-1677.
16. Easterling D.R., et al. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 2000, 289(5487):2068-2074.
17. Georgakakos K.P. Probabilistic climate-model diagnostics for hydrologic and water resources impact studies. J. Hydrometeorol. 2003, 4(1):92-105.
18. Giorgi F., Francisco R. Evaluating uncertainties in the prediction of regional climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000, 27(9):1295-1298.
19. Grace R.A., Eagleson P.S. Synthesis of short-time-increment rainfall sequences. Report (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Hydrodynamics Laboratory); No. 91 1966.
20. Groisman P.Y., Easterling D.R. Variability and trends of total precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada. J. Clim. 1994, 7(1):184-205.
21. Groisman P.Y., et al. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. Clim. 2005, 18(9):1326-1350.
22. Higgins R., Yao Y., Wang X. Influence of the North American monsoon system on the US summer precipitation regime. J. Clim. 1997, 10(10):2600-2622.
23. Houghton J., et al. IPCC, 2001: climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, New York, USA, (881, 9).
24. Houghton J.T., et al. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, 881 2001, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
25. Huff F.A. Time distribution of rainfall in heavy storms. Water Resour. Res. 1967, 3(4):1007-1019.
26. Jiang P., Gautam M.R., Zhu J., Yu Z. How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?. J. Hydrol. 2013, 479:75-85.
27. Jiang P., Yu Z., Gautam M.R. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influence on the spatiotemporal variability of heavy precipitation in the western United States. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2013, 109:38-45.
28. Karl T.R., Knight R.W. Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1998, 79(2):231-241.
29. Kottek M., Grieser J., Beck C., Rudolf B., Rubel F. World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol. Z. 2006, 15(3):259-263.
30. Koutsoyiannis D., Efstratiadis A., Mamassis N., Christofides A. On the credibility of climate predictions. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2008, 53(4):671-684.
31. Li H., Sheffield J., Wood E.F. Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching. J. Geophys. Res. 2010, 115(D10101).
32. Loik M.E., Breshears D.D., Lauenroth W.K., Belnap J. A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA. Oecologia 2004, 141(2):269-281.
33. Mannaerts C., Gabriels D. Rainfall erosivity in Cape Verde. Soil Tillage Res. 2000, 55(3):207-212.
34. Mearns, et al. A regional climate change assessment program for North America. EOS Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 2009, 90(36):311.
35. Menabde M., Sivapalan M. Modeling of rainfall time series and extremes using bounded random cascades and levy-stable distributions. Water Resour. Res. 2000, 36(11):3293-3300.
36. Min S.-K., Zhang X., Zwiers F.W., Hegerl G.C. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes. Nature 2011, 470(7334):378-381.
37. Mishra V., Dominguez F., Lettenmaier D.P. Urban precipitation extremes: how reliable are regional climate models?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39(3).
38. Nakicenovic N., et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (US), Richland, WA (US).
39. Nyssen J., et al. Rainfall erosivity and variability in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands. J. Hydrol. 2005, 311(1):172-187.
40. Osborn T.J., Hulme M. Evaluation of the European daily precipitation characteristics from the atmospheric model intercomparison project. Int. J. Climatol. 1998, 18(5):505-522.
41. Palecki M.A., Angel J.R., Hollinger S.E. Storm precipitation in the United States. Part I: meteorological characteristics. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2005, 44(6):933-946.
42. Peñuelas J., et al. Complex spatiotemporal phenological shifts as a response to rainfall changes. New Phytol. 2004, 161(3):837-846.
43. Piani C., Haerter J., Coppola E. Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2010, 99(1-2):187-192.
44. Pierce D.W., Barnett T.P., Santer B.D., Gleckler P.J. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2009, 106(21):8441-8446.
45. Polyak I., North G.R., Valdes J.B. Multivariate space-time analysis of PRE-STORM precipitation. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1994, 33(9):1079-1087.
46. Prudhomme C., Reynard N., Crooks S. Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now?. Hydrological processes 2002, 16(6):1137-1150.
47. Restrepo-Posada P.J., Eagleson P.S. Identification of independent rainstorms. J. Hydrol. 1982, 55(1):303-319.
48. Robinson J.S., Sivapalan M. Temporal scales and hydrological regimes: implications for flood frequency scaling. Water Resour. Res. 1997, 33(12):2981-2999.
49. Samuel J.M., Sivapalan M. A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia. Water Resour. Res. 2008, 44(7).
50. Schär C., et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 2004, 427(6972):332-336.
51. Seager R., et al. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 2007, 316(5828):1181-1184.
52. Shi P., et al. Spatial distribution and temporal trends in precipitation concentration indices for the Southwest China. Water Resour. Manag. 2015, 29(11):3941-3955.
53. Sun Y., Solomon S., Dai A., Portmann R.W. How often does it rain?. J. Clim. 2006, 19(6):916-934.
54. Tattelman P., Knight R.W. Analyses of 1-min rain rates extracted from weighing raingage recordings. J. Appl. Meteorol. 1988, 27:928-938.
55. Tebaldi C., Knutti R. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 2007, 365(1857):2053-2075.
56. Valdés-Pineda R., et al. Spatio-temporal trends of precipitation, its aggressiveness and concentration, along the Pacific coast of South America (36°-49° S). Hydrol. Sci. J. 2015, (just-accepted).
57. Visser H., Folkert R., Hoekstra J., De Wolff J. Identifying key sources of uncertainty in climate change projections. Clim. Chang. 2000, 45(3-4):421-457.
58. Walther G.-R., et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 2002, 416(6879):389-395.
59. Webster P.J., Holland G.J., Curry J.A., Chang H.-R. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 2005, 309(5742):1844-1846.
60. Wenzel H.G., Voorhees M.L. An Evaluation of the Urban Design Storm Concept 1981, University of Illinois, Water Resources Center.
61. Wood A.W., Maurer E.P., Kumar A., Lettenmaier D.P. Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107(D20).
62. Yang T., et al. Regional frequency analysis and spatio-temporal pattern characterization of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River Basin, China. J. Hydrol. 2010, 380(3):386-405.
63. Yang T., et al. Changes of climate extremes in a typical arid zone: observations and multimodel ensemble projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. (1984-2012) 2011, 116(D19).
64. Yang T., et al. Multi-model ensemble projections in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2012, 80:1-13.
65. Yu Z., Jiang P., Gautam M.R., Zhang Y., Acharya K. Changes of seasonal storm properties in California and Nevada from an ensemble of climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2015, 120(7):2676-2688.
66. Yun W., Stefanova L., Krishnamurti T. Improvement of the multimodel superensemble technique for seasonal forecasts. J. Clim. 2003, 16(22):3834-3840.
67. Zhang Q., Sun P., Singh V.P., Chen X. Spatial-temporal precipitation changes (1956-2000) and their implications for agriculture in China. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2012, 82:86-95.
68. Zhu J., Forsee W., Schumer R., Gautam M. Future projections and uncertainty assessment of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States from an ensemble of climate models. Clim. Chang. 2013, 1-17.