Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 113, Issue 15, 2016, Pages 4092-4097

  Martinez, Pamela P ^a   King, Aaron A ^b   Yunus, Mohammad ^c   Faruque, A S G ^c   Pascual, Mercedes ^a,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^c INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DIARRHOEAL DISEASE RESEARCH   (Bangladesh)

^d SANTA FE INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Diarrheal disease; Epidemiological model; Monsoon flooding; Rotavirus transmission; Urban health

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BANGLADESH; CHILD; CLIMATE; DEMOGRAPHY; DIARRHEA; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; EPIDEMIC; FLOODING; HUMAN; INFANT; PRIORITY JOURNAL; ROTAVIRUS INFECTION; RURAL AREA; SEASONAL RAIN FOREST; SEASONAL VARIATION; SOCIOECONOMICS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ROTAVIRUS INFECTIONS; SEASON;

BANGLADESH; CLIMATE; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; DIARRHEA; FLOODS; HUMANS; ROTAVIRUS INFECTIONS; SEASONS;

EID: 84963761208     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1518977113     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Pascual M, Rodó X, Ellner SP, Colwell R, Bouma MJ (2000) Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science 289(5485):1766-1769.
2. Zhou G, Minakawa N, Githeko AK, Yan G (2004) Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101(8):2375-2380.
3. Cazelles B, Chavez M, McMichael AJ, Hales S (2005) Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand. PLoS Med 2(4):e106.
4. Koelle K, Rodó X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G (2005) Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436(7051):696-700.
5. Nagao Y, Koelle K (2008) Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(6):2238-2243.
6. Laneri K, et al. (2010) Forcing versus feedback: Epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India. PLOS Comput Biol 6(9):e1000898.
7. Hoshen MB, Morse AP (2004) A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J 3(1):32-46.
8. Sultan B, Labadi K, Guégan JF, Janicot S (2005) Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa. PLoS Med 2(1):e6.
9. Moran P A P (1953) The statistical analysis of the Canadian lynx cycle. Aust J Zool 1(3):291-298.
10. Hudson PJ, Cattadori IM (1999) The Moran effect: A cause of population synchrony. Trends Ecol Evol 14(1):1-2.
11. Reiner RC, Jr, et al. (2012) Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(6):2033-2036.
12. Parashar UD, Hummelman EG, Bresee JS, Miller MA, Glass RI (2003) Global illness and deaths caused by rotavirus disease in children. Emerg Infect Dis 9(5):565-572.
13. Tate JE, et al.; WHO-coordinated Global Rotavirus Surveillance Network (2012) 2008 estimate of worldwide rotavirus-associated mortality in children younger than 5 years before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination programmes: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 12(2):136-141.
14. Ferdous F, et al. (2015) Aetiologies of diarrhoea in adults from urban and rural treatment facilities in Bangladesh. Epidemiol Infect 143(7):1377-1387.
15. Konno T, et al. (1983) Influence of temperature and relative humidity on human rotavirus infection in Japan. J Infect Dis 147(1):125-128.
16. Cook SM, Glass RI, LeBaron CW, Ho MS (1990) Global seasonality of rotavirus infections. Bull World Health Organ 68(2):171-177.
17. Purohit SG, Kelkar SD, Simha V (1998) Time series analysis of patients with rotavirus diarrhoea in Pune, India. J Diarrhoeal Dis Res 16(2):74-83.
18. Bresee J, et al.; Asian Rotavirus Surveillance Network (2004) First report from the Asian Rotavirus Surveillance Network. Emerg Infect Dis 10(6):988-995.
19. Nakagomi T, et al. (2005) Incidence and burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in Japan, as estimated from a prospective sentinel hospital study. J Infect Dis 192(Suppl 1):S106-S110.
20. D'Souza RM, Hall G, Becker NG (2008) Climatic factors associated with hospitalizations for rotavirus diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age. Epidemiol Infect 136(1):56-64.
21. Levy K, Hubbard AE, Eisenberg J N S (2009) Seasonality of rotavirus disease in the tropics: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Int J Epidemiol 38(6):1487-1496.
22. Hieber JP, Shelton S, Nelson JD, Leon J, Mohs E (1978) Comparison of human rotavirus disease in tropical and temperate settings. Am J Dis Child 132(9):853-858.
23. Stoll BJ, et al. (1982) Surveillance of patients attending a diarrhoeal disease hospital in Bangladesh. Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 285(6349):1185-1188.
24. Rahman M, et al. (2007) Prevalence of G2P[4] and G12P[6] rotavirus, Bangladesh. Emerg Infect Dis 13(1):18-24.
25. Hashizume M, et al. (2008) Rotavirus infections and climate variability in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A time-series analysis. Epidemiol Infect 136(9):1281-1289.
26. Cash BAX, Rodó JL, Kinter I I I (2008) Links between tropical Pacific SST and cholera incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the eastern and central tropical Pacific. J Clim 21:4647-4663.
27. Patel MM, et al. (2013) Global seasonality of rotavirus disease. Pediatr Infect Dis J 32(4):e134-e147.
28. Colwell RR (1996) Global climate and infectious disease: Tthe cholera paradigm. Science 274(5295):2025-2031.
29. Lipp EK, Huq A, Colwell RR (2002) Effects of global climate on infectious disease: The cholera model. Clin Microbiol Rev 15(4):757-770.
30. Cash BA, et al. (2014) Cholera and shigellosis: Different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability. PLoS One 9(9):e107223.
31. Dewan A, Corner R (2014) Dhaka Megacity Geospatial Perspectives on Urbanisation, Environment and Health (Springer, Dordrecht).
32. Faisal IM, Kabir MR, Nishat A (2003) The disastrous flood of 1998 and long-term mitigation strategies for Dhaka City. Nat Hazards (Dordr) 28:85-99.
33. Laneri K, et al. (2015) Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(28):8786-8791.
34. Pascual M (2015) Climate and Population Immunity in Malaria Dynamics: Harnessing Information from Endemicity Gradients. Trends Parasitol 31(11):532-534.
35. Pitzer VE, et al. (2011) Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 8(64):1584-1593.
36. Wesolowski A, et al. (2012) Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science 338(6104):267-270.
37. Buckee CO, Wesolowski A, Eagle NN, Hansen E, Snow RW (2013) Mobile phones and malaria: Modeling human and parasite travel. Travel Med Infect Dis 11(1):15-22.
38. Dalziel BD, Pourbohloul B, Ellner SP (2013) Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities. Proc Biol Sci 280(1766):20130763.
39. Richardson DB, et al. (2013) Medicine. Spatial turn in health research. Science 339(6126):1390-1392.
40. Wesolowski A, Eagle N, Noor AM, Snow RW, Buckee CO (2013) The impact of biases in mobile phone ownership on estimates of human mobility. J R Soc Interface 10(81):20120986.
41. Pitzer VE, et al. (2009) Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics. Science 325(5938):290-294.
42. Velázquez FR, et al. (1996) Rotavirus infections in infants as protection against subsequent infections. N Engl J Med 335(14):1022-1028.
43. Ionides EL, Bretó C, King AA (2006) Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103(49):18438-18443.
44. King AA, et al. (2015) pomp: Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov Processes (R package, version 1.0.0.0). Available at pomp. r-forge.r-project.org. Accessed May 1, 2015.
45. King AA, Nguyen D, Ionides EL (2015) Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R Package pomp. J Stat Softw, in press.