Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation

Nature Communications

Volumn 7, Issue , 2016, Pages

  Hammill, E ^a,b   Tulloch, A I T ^a   Possingham, H P ^a,c   Strange, N ^d   Wilson, K A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION PLANNING; COST ANALYSIS; ESTIMATION METHOD; FACTOR ANALYSIS; NATURE CONSERVATION; PROTECTED AREA; RISK FACTOR; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

BIODIVERSITY; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; INVESTMENT; SPECIES; WAR; ATTITUDE; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; RISK FACTOR; UNCERTAINTY;

ARMED CONFLICTS; ATTITUDE; BIODIVERSITY; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; RISK FACTORS; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84962343992     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11042     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Andam, K. S., Ferraro, P. J., Pfaff, A., Sanchez-Azofeifa, G. A. & Robalino, J. A. Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 16089-16094 (2008).
2. Green, J. M. H. et al. Deforestation in an African biodiversity hotspot: extent, variation and the effectiveness of protected areas. Biol. Conserv. 164, 62-72 (2013).
3. Laurance, W. F. et al. Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas. Nature 489, 290-294 (2012).
4. Tabarelli, M., Pinto, L. P., Silva, J. M. C., Hirota, M. & Bede, L. Challenges and opportunities for Biodiversity conservation in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Conserv. Biol. 19, 695-700 (2005).
5. Gopal, R., Qureshi, Q., Bhardwaj, M., Singh, R. K. J. & Jhala, Y. V. Evaluating the status of the endangered tiger Panthera tigris and its prey in Panna Tiger Reserve, Madhya Pradesh, India. Oryx 44, 383-389 (2010).
6. Kurz, W. A. et al. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452, 987-990 (2008).
7. Dudley, J. P., Ginsberg, J. R., Plumptre, A. J., Hart, J. A. & Campos, L. C. Effects of war and civil strife on wildlife and wildlife habitats. Conserv. Biol. 16, 319-329 (2002).
8. Watson, J. E. M., Dudley, N., Segan, D. B. & Hockings, M. The performance and potential of protected areas. Nature 515, 67-73 (2014).
9. Hanson, T. et al. Warfare in biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol. 23, 578-587 (2009).
10. Beyers, R. L. et al. Resource wars and conflict ivory: the impact of civil conflict on elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo - the case of the Okapi Reserve. PLoS ONE 6, e27129 (2011).
11. Pickering, S. Proximity, maps and conflict: new measures, new maps and new findings. Conflict Manag. Peace Sci. 29, 425-443 (2012).
12. Westing, A. H. in World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Year Book (eds SIPRI) (Taylor and Francis, 1982).
13. de Merode, E. et al. The impact of armed conflict on protected-area efficacy in Central Africa. Biol. Lett. 3, 299-301 (2007).
14. Jones, P. Gold and poaching bring murder and misery to Congolese wildlife reserve. The Guardian (2013).
15. Plumptre, A. J. Lessons learned from on-the-ground conservation in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. J Sustain. Forest. 16, 71-91 (2003).
16. John, K. H. The Korean DMZ: a fragile ecosystem. Science 280, 803 (1998).
17. McNeely, J. A. Biodiversity, war, and tropical forests. J Sustain. Forest. 16, 1-20 (2003).
18. Wilson, K. A., McBride, M. F., Bode, M. & Possingham, H. P. Prioritizing global conservation efforts. Nature 440, 337-340 (2006).
19. Moilanen, A., Wilson, K. A. & Possingham, H. P. Spatial Conservation Prioritisation (Oxford University Press, 2009).
20. Ordway, E. M. Political shifts and changing forests: effects of armed conflict on forest conservation in Rwanda. Global Ecol. Conserv. 3, 448-460 (2015).
21. Maguire, L. A. & Albright, E. A. Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions? Forest Ecol. Manag. 211, 47-58 (2005).
22. Tulloch, A. I. T. et al. Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects. Conserv. Biol. 29, 513-524 (2015).
23. Balmford, A. & Long, A. Across country analyses of biodiversity congruence and current conservation effort in the tropics. Conserv. Biol. 9, 1539-1547 (1995).
24. Game, E. T., Watts, M. E., Wooldridge, S. & Possingham, H. P. Planning for persistence in marine reserves: a question of catastrophic importance. Ecol. Appl. 18, 670-680 (2008).
25. Kujala, H., Burgman, M. A. & Moilanen, A. Treatment of uncertainty in conservation under climate change. Conserv. Lett. 6, 73-85 (2013).
26. Institute for Economics and Peace. Global Peace Index Report 2013: Quantifying Peace and its Benefits. (Institute for Economics and Peace, Sydney, Australia, 2013).
27. Tear, T. H. et al. A return-on-investment framework to identify conservation priorities in Africa. Biol. Conserv. 173, 42-52 (2014).
28. Trimikliniotis, N. & Kiem, W. Traps and pitfalls in comparatively analysing reconciliation, a critical epistemological contribution and a research agenda in Pathways of Creative Research: Towards a Festival of Dialogues. Available at: http://works.bepress.com/nicos-trimikliniotis/31/ (2011).
29. Rustad, S. C. A., Buhaug, H., Falch, Ö. & Gates, S. All conflict is local modeling sub-national variation in civil conflict risk. Conflict Manag. Peace Sci. 28, 15-40 (2011).
30. Raleigh, C., Linke, A., Hegre, H. & Karlsen, J. Introducing ACLED-Armed conflict location and event data. J. Peace Res. 47, 1-10 (2010).
31. Waldron, A. et al. Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 12144-12148 (2013).
32. Tulloch, V. J. et al. Incorporating uncertainty associated with habitat data in marine reserve design. Biol. Conserv. 162, 41-51 (2013).
33. Coad, L. et al. The ecological representativeness of the global protected areas estate in 2009: progress towards the CBD 2010 target. UNEP-WCMC, WWFUS and ECI, University of Oxford.
34. Cantu-Salazar, L., Orme, C. D. L., Rasmussen, P. C., Blackburn, T. M. & Gaston, K. J. The performance of the global protected area system in capturing vertebrate geographic ranges. Biodivers. Conserv. 22, 1033-1047 (2013).
35. Rondinini, C., Stuart, S. & Boitani, L. Habitat suitability models and the shortfall in conservation planning for African vertebrates. Conserv. Biol. 19, 1488-1497 (2005).
36. Nicholson, E. et al. Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators. PLoS ONE 7, 10 (2012).
37. Plumptre, A. J., Masozera, M. & Vedder, A. The Impact of Civil War on the Conservation of Protected Areas in Rwanda. Washington, D.C.: Biodiversity Support Program, http://www.albertinerift.org/DesktopModules/Bring2mind/ DMX/Download.aspx?EntryId=11642&PortalId=49&DownloadMethod= attachment.
38. The International Institute for Strategic Studies. Armed Conflicts Database. https://acd.iiss.org/ (2014).
39. Hegre, H., Karlsen, J., Nygård, H. M., Strand, H. & Urdal, H. Predicting armed conflict, 2010-2050. Int. Studies Q. 57, 250-270 (2013).
40. Betts, M. G. & Villard, M.-A. in Setting Conservation Targets for Managed Forest Landscapes (eds Villard, M.- A. & Jonsson, B. G.) (Cambridge University Press, 2009).
41. Lennox, G. D. & Armsworth, P. R. Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty. Ecol. Model. 222, 2856-2866 (2011).
42. Borchers, J. G. Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology. Forest Ecol. Manag. 211, 36-46 (2005).
43. Carvalho, S. B., Brito, J. C., Crespo, E. G., Watts, M. E. & Possingham, H. P. Conservation planning under climate change: toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time. Biol. Conserv. 144, 2020-2030 (2011).
44. Buhaug, H. & Rød, J. K. Local determinants of African civil wars, 1970-2001. Pol. Geogr. 25, 315-335 (2006).
45. Hewitt, J. J., Wilkenfeld, J. & Gurr, T. R. Peace and conflict. College Park, Md.: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland (2012).
46. Plumptre, A. J. et al. The biodiversity of the Albertine Rift. Biol. Conserv. 134, 178-194 (2007).
47. Machlis, G. E. & Hanson, T. Warfare ecology. BioScience 58, 729-736 (2008).
48. Gates, S., Hegre, H., Nygård, H. M. & Strand, H. Development consequences of armed conflict. World Dev. 40, 1713-1722 (2012).
49. Kiernan, K. Nature, severity and persistence of geomorphological damage caused by armed conflict. Land Degrad. Dev. 26, 380-396 (2015).
50. Homer-Dixon, T. F. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton University Press, 2010).
51. De Merode, E. & Cowlishaw, G. U. Y. Species protection, the changing informal economy, and the politics of access to the bushmeat trade in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Conserv. Biol. 20, 1262-1271 (2006).
52. Collier, P. The market for civil war. Foreign Policy 136, 38-45 (2003).
53. Wilson, K. A. et al. Prioritizing conservation investments for mammal species globally. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 366, 2670-2680 (2011).
54. Olson, D. M. et al. Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: A new map of life on Earth: a new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity. BioScience 51, 933-938 (2001).
55. Ball, I. R., Possingham, H. P. & Watts, M. in Spatial Conservation Prioritisation: Quantitative Methods and Computational Tools (eds Moilanen, A., Wilson, K. A. & Possingham, H. P.) (Oxford University Press, 2009).
56. IUCN. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2010-3 http://www.iucnredlist.org. Downloaded on 19 November 2010.
57. Waldron, S. R. & Hasci, N. A. Somali refugees in the Horn of Africa: state of the art literature review. No. 3, Nordic Africa Institute (1995).
58. Sundberg, R. & Melander, E. Introducing the UCDP georeferenced event dataset. J. Peace Res. 50, 523-532 (2013).