Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects

Conservation Biology

Volumn 29, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 513-524

  Tulloch, Ayesha I T ^a   Maloney, Richard F ^b   Joseph, Liana N ^a,c   Bennett, Joseph R ^a   Di Fonzo, Martina M I ^a   Probert, William J M ^a   O'Connor, Shaun M ^b   Densem, Jodie P ^b   Possingham, Hugh P ^a,d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^b DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION   (New Zealand)

^c WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETY   (United States)

^d IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Conservation decision making; Cost effectiveness analysis; Management effectiveness; Project prioritization protocol; Risk analysis; Risk tolerance; Threatened species; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DECISION MAKING; ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS; ENDANGERED SPECIES; EXTINCTION RISK; INVESTMENT; PRIORITIZATION; RESOURCE ALLOCATION; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

NEW ZEALAND;

ANIMAL; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DECISION MAKING; ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; INVERTEBRATE; LEGISLATION AND JURISPRUDENCE; NEW ZEALAND; PLANT; PROCEDURES; RISK; UNCERTAINTY; VERTEBRATE;

ANIMALS; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DECISION MAKING; INVERTEBRATES; NEW ZEALAND; PLANTS; RISK; UNCERTAINTY; VERTEBRATES;

EID: 84924677532     PISSN: 08888892     EISSN: 15231739     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12386     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Ando, A. W., and M. L. Mallory . 2012. Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109:6484-6489.
2. Ariel, R. 1998. Risk adjusted discount rates and the present value of risky costs. Financial Review 33:17-30.
3. Bennett, J. R., et al. 2014. Balancing phylogenetic diversity and species numbers in conservation prioritization, using a case study of threatened species in New Zealand. Biological Conservation 174:47-54.
4. Bestelmeyer, B. T. 2006. Threshold concepts and their use in rangeland management and restoration: the good, the bad, and the insidious. Restoration Ecology 14:325-329.
5. Björk, T., A. Murgoci, and X. Y. Zhou . 2014. Mean-variance portfolio optimization with state-dependent risk aversion. Mathematical Finance 24:1-24.
6. Borchers, J. G. 2005. Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology. Forest Ecology and Management 211:36-46.
7. Bottrill, M. C., et al. 2008. Is conservation triage just smart decision making? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23:649-654.
8. Bugalla, J., J. Kallman, S. Lindo, and K. Narvaez . 2012. The new model of governance and risk management for financial institutions. Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions 5:181-193.
9. Burgman, M. A. 2005. Risks and decisions for conservation and environmental management. Cambridge University Press, New York.
10. Burgman, M. A., B. A. Wintle, C. A. Thompson, A. Moilanen, M. C. Runge, and Y. Ben-Haim . 2010. Reconciling uncertain costs and benefits in Bayes nets for invasive species management. Risk Analysis 30:277-284.
11. Burgman, M. A., and D. Yemshanov . 2013. Risks, decisions and biological conservation. Diversity and Distributions 19:485-489.
12. Camerer, C. F., and H. Kunreuther . 1989. Decision processes for low probability events: policy implications. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8:565-592.
13. Carwardine, J. S., et al. 2014. Priority threat management for Pilbara species of conservation significance. CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Brisbane, Australia.
14. Department of Conservation. 2013. Annual Report for the year ended 30 June 2012. New Zealand Government, Wellington, New Zealand.
15. Everett, J. E., and B. Schwab . 1979. On the proper adjustment for risk through discount rates in a mean-variance framework. Financial Management 8:61-65.
16. Fitzgerald, S. A., editor. 2002. Fire in Oregon's forests: risks, effects and treatment options. A synthesis of current issues and scientific literature. Special Report prepared for the Oregon Forest Resources Institute, Portland, OR.
17. Gibbons, J. M., E. Nicholson, E. J. Milner-Gulland, and J. P. G. Jones . 2011. Should payments for biodiversity conservation be based on action or results? Journal of Applied Ecology 48:1218-1226.
18. Grechi, I., I. Chadès, Y. M. Buckley, M. H. Friedel, A. C. Grice, H. P. Possingham, R. D. van Klinken, and T. G. Martin . 2014. A decision framework for management of conflicting production and biodiversity goals for a commercially valuable invasive species. Agricultural Systems 125:1-11.
19. Harlow, W. V., and K. C. Brown . 1990. Understanding and assessing financial risk tolerance: a biological perspective. Financial Analysts Journal 46:50-80.
20. Huggett, A. J. 2005. The concept and utility of 'ecological thresholds' in biodiversity conservation. Biological Conservation 124:301-310.
21. Joseph, L. N., R. F. Maloney, and H. P. Possingham . 2009. Optimal allocation of resources among threatened species: a Project Prioritization Protocol. Conservation Biology 23:328-338.
22. Kasperski, S., and D. S. Holland . 2013. Income diversification and risk for fishermen. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110:2076-2081.
23. Kimball, M. S. 1993. Standard risk aversion. Econometrica 61:589-611.
24. Lennox, G. D., and P. R. Armsworth . 2011. Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty. Ecological Modelling 222:2856-2866.
25. Little, L. R., J. Parslow, G. Fay, R. Q. Grafton, A. D. M. Smith, A. E. Punt, and G. N. Tuck . 2014. Environmental derivatives, risk analysis, and conservation management. Conservation Letters 7:196-207.
26. Mace, G. M., N. J. Collar, K. J. Gaston, C. Hilton-Taylor, H. R. Akcakaya, N. Leader-Williams, E. J. Milner-Gulland, and S. N. Stuart . 2008. Quantification of extinction risk: IUCN's System for classifying threatened species. Conservation Biology 22:1424-1442.
27. Maguire, L. A. 1991. Risk analysis for conservation biologists. Conservation Biology 5:123-125.
28. Maguire, L. A., and E. A. Albright . 2005. Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions? Forest Ecology and Management 211:47-58.
29. March, J. G., and Z. Shapira . 1987. Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science 33:1404-1418.
30. Marescot, L., G. Chapron, I. Chadès, P. L. Fackler, C. Duchamp, E. Marboutin, and O. Gimenez . 2013. Complex decisions made simple: a primer on stochastic dynamic programming. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4:872-884.
31. Markowitz, H. M. 1959. Portfolio selection: efficient diversification of investments. Wiley, New York.
32. Martin, J., M. C. Runge, J. D. Nichols, B. C. Lubow, and W. L. Kendall . 2009. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management. Ecological Applications 19:1079-1090.
33. McCarthy, M. A., and H. P. Possingham . 2007. Active adaptive management for conservation. Conservation Biology 21:956-963.
34. Mouysset, L., L. Doyen, and F. Jiguet . 2012. How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity? Ecological Applications 23:96-109.
35. Mumford, J. D., A. W. Leach, P. Levontin, and L. T. Kell . 2009. Insurance mechanisms to mediate economic risks in marine fisheries. ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 66:950-959.
36. Nicholson, E., and H. P. Possingham . 2007. Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species. Ecological Applications 17:251-265.
37. Polasky, S., S. R. Carpenter, C. Folke, and B. Keeler . 2011. Decision making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26:398-404.
38. R Development Core Team. 2012. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria.
39. Real, L. A. 1980. Fitness, uncertainty, and the role of diversification in evolution and behavior. The American Naturalist 115:623-638.
40. Regan, H. M., M. Colyvan, and M. A. Burgman . 2002. A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecological Applications 12:618-628.
41. Stankey, G. H., B. T. Bormann, C. Ryan, B. Shindler, V. Sturtevant, R. N. Clark, and C. Philpot . 2003. Adaptive management and the Northwest Forest Plan: rhetoric and reality. Journal of Forestry 101:40-46.
42. Starmer, C. 2000. Developments in non-expected utility theory: the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk. Journal of Economic Literature 332-382.
43. Stephens, D. W., and S. R. Paton . 1986. How constant is the constant of risk-aversion? Animal Behaviour 34:1659-1667.
44. Townsend, A. J., P. J. de Lange, C. A. J. Duffy, C. M. Miskelly, J. Molloy, and D. A. Norton . 2008. New Zealand threat classification system manual. Science & Technical Publishing, Department of Conservation, Wellington, New Zealand.
45. Tulloch, A. I. T., I. Chadès, and H. P. Possingham . 2013. Accounting for complementarity to maximize monitoring power for species management. Conservation Biology 27:988-999.
46. Van Houtven, G., F. R. Johnson, V. Kilambi, and A. B. Hauber . 2011. Eliciting benefit-risk preferences and probability-weighted utility using choice-format conjoint analysis. Medical Decision Making: an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 31:469-480.
47. Warah, A. 2001. Trust building in organizations: a fundamental component of risk management models. Optimum, The Journal of Public Sector Management 30:94-98.
48. Weitzman, M. L. 1998. The Noah's Ark problem. Econometrica 66:1279-1298.
49. Wilson, K. A., J. Carwardine, and H. Possingham . 2009. Setting conservation priorities. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1162:237-264.