Aspects of ECMWF model performance in polar areas

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 142, Issue 695, 2016, Pages 583-596

  Bauer, P ^a   Magnusson, L ^a   Thépaut, Jean Noël ^a   Hamill, Thomas M ^b  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Ensemble analyses; Forecast verification; Polar weather prediction; TIGGE

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ENSEMBLE ANALYSES; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; FORECAST VERIFICATIONS; JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCIES; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; TIGGE; WEATHER PREDICTION;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA ASSIMILATION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; IMAGE RESOLUTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84961907170     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2449     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Bechtold P, Köhler M, Jung T, Doblas-Reyes F, Leutbecher M, Rodwell MJ, Vitart F, Balsamo G. 2008. Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal time-scales. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 1337-1351.
2. Bonavita M, Isaksen L, Holm E. 2012. On the use of EDA background error variances in the ECMWF 4D-Var. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1540-1559.
3. Bougeault P, Toth Z, Bishop C, Brown B, Burridge D, Chen D, Ebert E, Fuentes M, Hamill T, Mylne K, Nicolau J, Paccagnella T, Park YY, Parsons D, Raoult B, Schuster D, Silva Dias P, Swinbank R, Takeuchi Y, Tennant W, Wilson L, Worley S. 2010. THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91: 1059-1072.
4. Boullot N, Rabier F, Langland R, Gelaro R, Cardinali C, Guidard V, Bauer P, Doerenbecher A. 2014. Observation impact over the Antarctic during the Concordiasi field campaign. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2470.
5. Buizza R, Leutbecher M, Isaksen L. 2008. Potential use of an ensemble of analyses in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 2051-2066.
6. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thepaut JN, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 553-597.
7. Hagedorn R, Buizza R, Hamill T, Leutbecher M, Palmer T. 2012. Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1814-1827.
8. Isaksen L, Bonavita M, Buizza R, Fisher M, Haseler J, Leutbecher M, Raynaud L. 2010. Ensemble of Data Assimilations at ECMWF, Technical Memorandum, 636. ECMWF: Reading, UK.
9. Jung T. 2005. Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 1045-1073.
10. Jung T, Leutbecher M. 2007. Performance of the ECMWF forecasting system in the Arctic during winter. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 1327-1340.
11. Jung T, Rhines P. 2007. Greenland's pressure drag and the North Atlantic storm track. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 4008-4034.
12. Jung T, Balsamo G, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, Kohler M, Miller MJ, Morcrette JJ, Orr A, Rodwell M, Tompkins AM. 2010. The ECMWF model climate:Recent progress through improved physical parametrizations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 136: 1145-1160.
13. Jung T, Miller M, Palmer TN, Towers P, Wedi N, Achuthavarier D, Adams J, Altshuler E, Cash B, Kinter J, III, Marx L, Stan C, Hodges K. 2012. High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF Model in project Athena: Experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill. J.Clim. 25: 3155-3172.
14. Karlsson J, Svensson G. 2011. The simulation of Arctic clouds and their influence on the winter present-day climate in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Clim. Dyn. 36: 623-635.
15. Leutbecher M, Palmer TN. 2008. Ensemble forecasting. J. Comput. Phys. 227: 3515-3539.
16. Molteni F, Buizza R, Palmer T, Petroliagis T. 1999. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122: 73-119.
17. Palmer T, Buizza R, Doblas-Reyes F, Jung T, Leutbecher M, Shutts GJ, Steinheimer M, Weisheimer A. 2009. Stochastic Parametrization and Model Uncertainty, Technical Memorandum, 598. ECMWF: Reading, UK.
18. Richardson DS. 2000. Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 126: 649-668.
19. Saetra O, Hersbach H, Bidlot JR, Richardson DS. 2004. Effects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 1487-1501.
20. Simmons A, Hollingsworth A. 2002. Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 128: 647-677.
21. Svensson G, Karlsson J. 2011. On the Arctic wintertime climate in global climate model. J. Clim. 24: 5757-5771.
22. Tjernström M, Zagar M, Svensson G, Cassano J, Pfeifer S, Rinke A, Wyser K, Dethloff K, Jones C, Semmler T, Shaw M. 2005. Modelling the Arctic boundary layer: An evaluation of six ARCMIP regional-scale models using data from the SHEBA project. Boundary Layer Meteorol. 117: 337-381.
23. Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, Bechtold VDC, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, Berg LVD, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 2961-3012.
24. Uttal T, Curry JA, Mcphee MG, Perovich DK, Moritz RE, Maslanik JA, Guest PS, Stern HL, Moore JA, Turenne R, Heiberg A, Serreze MC, Wylie DP, Persson OG, Paulson CA, Halle C, Morison JH, Wheeler PA, Makshtas A, Welch H, Shupe MD, Intrieri JM, Stamnes K, Lindsey RW, Pinkel R, Scott Pegau W, Stanton TP, Grenfeld TC. 2002. Surface heat budget over the Arctic ocean. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83: 255-275.
25. Vihma T, Pirazzini R, Fer I, Renfrew IA, Sedlar J, Tjernström M, Lüpkes C, Nygård T, Notz D, Weiss J, Marsan D, Cheng B, Birnbaum G, Gerland S, Chechin D, Gascard JC. 2013. Advances in understanding and parametrization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: A review. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 13: 32 703-32 816.
26. Wei M, Toth Z, Zhu Y. 2010. Analysis differences and error variance estimates from multi-center analysis data. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 59: 25-34.