Effects of observation errors on the statistics for ensemble spread and reliability

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 132, Issue 6, 2004, Pages 1487-1501

  Saetra, Øyvind ^a   Hersbach, Hans ^a   Bidlot, Jean Raymond ^a   Richardson, David S ^a  

^a EuropeanCtrMed RangeWthrForecasts   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERICS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; RELIABILITY;

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM (EPS); GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS (GTS);

WEATHER FORECASTING;

ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; HISTOGRAM; PREDICTION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 3142779257     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1487:EOOEOT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Anderson, J. L., 1996: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations. J. Climate, 9, 1518-1530.
2. Buizza, R., T. Petroliagis, T. Palmer, J. Barkmeijer, M. Hamrud, A. Hollingsworth, A. Simmons, and N. Wedi, 1998: Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an ensemble prediction system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124B, 1935-1960.
3. Buizza, R., J. Barkmeijer, T. M. Palmer, and D. S. Richardson, 2000: Current status and future developments of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Meteor. Appl., 7, 163-175.
4. Evans, R. E., M. S. J. Harrison, R. J. Graham, and K. R. Mylne, 2000: Joint medium-range ensembles from The Met. Office and ECMWF systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 3104-3127.
5. Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
6. Houtekamer, P. L., 1992: Predictability in models of the atmospheric circulation. Ph.D. thesis, Landbouwuniversiteit Wageningen, Netherlands, 121 pp.
7. Houtekamer, P. L., L. Lavaivre, J. Derome, H. Ritchie, and H. L. Mitchell, 1996: A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1225-1242.
8. Janssen, P. A. E. M., J. D. Doyle, J. Bidlot, B. Hansen, L. Isaksen, and P. Viterbo, 2002: Impact and feedback of ocean waves on the atmosphere. Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions, W. Perrie, Ed., Advances in Fluid Mechanics, Vol. I. WIT Press, 155-197.
9. Janssen, P. A. E. M., S. Abdalla, and H. Hersbach, 2003: Error estimation of buoy, satellite, and model wave height data. ECMWF Research Dept. Tech. Memo. 402, 17 pp.
10. Komen, G. J., L. Cavaleri, M. Doneland, K. Hasselmann, S. Hasselmann, and P. A. E. M. Janssen, Eds., 1994: Dynamics and Modelling of Ocean Waves. Cambridge University Press, 533 pp.
11. Kruizinga, S., and C. J. Kok, 1988: Evaluation of the ECMWF experimental skill prediction scheme and a statistical analysis of forecast errors. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability in Medium and Extended Range, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 403-415.
12. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
13. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
14. Richardson, D. S., 2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126, 649-668.
15. Saetra, Ø., and J.-R. Bidlot, 2002: Assessment of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for waves and marine winds. ECMWF Research Dept. Tech. Memo. 388, 29 pp.
16. Simmons, A. J., and A. Hollingsworth, 2002: Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 647-677.
17. Strauss, B., and A. Lanzinger, 1996: Verification of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). ECMWF Newsletter, No. 72, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 9-15.
18. Talagrand, O., and R. Vautard, 1997: Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 1-25.
19. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
20. Tracton, M. S., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Operational ensemble prediction at the National Meteorological Center: Practical aspects. Wea. Forecasting. 8, 379-398.
21. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 467 pp.