In what direction should the fishing mortality target change when natural mortality increases within an assessment?

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Volumn 73, Issue 3, 2015, Pages 349-357

  Legault, Christopher M ^a   Palmer, Michael C ^a  

^a NORTHEAST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FISHING MORTALITY; OVERFISHING; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); STOCK ASSESSMENT; TELEOST; TRADE-OFF;

GADUS MORHUA; LIMANDA FERRUGINEA;

EID: 84961126332     PISSN: 0706652X     EISSN: 12057533     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/cjfas-2015-0232     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. A’mar, Z.T., Punt, A.E., and Dorn, M.W. 2010. Incorporating ecosystem forcing through predation into a management strategy evaluation for the Gulf of Alaska walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) fishery. Fish. Res. 102: 98-114. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2009.10.014.
2. Beverton, R.J.H., and Holt, S.J. 1957. On the dynamics of exploited fish populations. Vol. 2. Her Majesties Stationary Office, London.
3. Brander, K. 2010. Impacts of climate change on fisheries. J. Mar. Syst. 79: 389-402. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.015.
4. Brodziak, J., Ianelli, J., Lorenzen, K., and Methot, R.D., Jr. 2011. Estimating natural mortality in stock assessment applications. NOAA Technical Memo. NMFS-F/SPO-119.
5. Brooks, E.N., Powers, J.E., and Cortes, E. 2010. Analytical reference points for age-structured models: application to data-poor fisheries. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 67: 165-175. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp225.
6. Brown, C.J., Fulton, E.A., Possingham, H.P., and Richardson, A.J. 2012. How long can fisheries management delay action in response to ecosystem and climate change? Ecol. Appl. 22: 298-310. doi:10.1890/11-0419.1.
7. Cardinale, M., and Svedang, H. 2004. Modelling recruitment and abundance of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, in the eastern Skagerrak-Kattegat (North Sea): evidence of severe depletion due to a prolonged period of high fishing pressure. Fish. Res. 69: 263-282. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2004.04.001.
8. Chaput, G. 2011. Proceedings of Gulf and Maritimes zonal science advisory process framework meeting for Atlantic cod assessment models, medium-term projections, and reference points [online]. Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Proceedings Series 2011/051. Available from http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/Pro-Cr/2011/2011_051-bil.pdf.
9. Chassot, E., Duplisea, D., Hammill, M., Caskenette, A., Bousquet, N., Lambert, Y., and Stenson, G. 2009. Role of predation by harp seals Pagophilus groenlandicus in the collapse and non-recovery of northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod Gadus morhua. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 379: 279-297. doi:10.3354/meps07897.
10. Clark, W.G. 1991. Groundfish exploitation rates based on life history parameters. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48(5): 734-750. doi:10.1139/f91-088.
11. Clark, W.G. 2002. F35% revisited ten years later. N. Am. J. Fish. Manage. 22: 251-257. doi:10.1577/1548-8675(2002)022<0251:FRTYL>2.0.CO;2.
12. Collie, J.S., and Gislason, H. 2001. Biological reference points for fish stocks in a multispecies context. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58(11): 2167-2176. doi:10.1139/f01-158.
13. Conn, P.B., Williams, E.H., and Shertzer, K.W. 2010. When can we reliably estimate the productivity of fish stocks? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 67(3): 511-523. doi:10.1139/F09-194.
14. Curti, K.L., Collie, J.S., Legault, C.M., and Link, J.S. 2013. Evaluating the performance of a multispecies, statistical catch-at-age model. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 70(3): 470-484. doi:10.1139/cjfas-2012-0229.
15. Deroba, J.J., and Schueller, A.M. 2013. Performance of stock assessments with misspecified age-and time-varying natural mortality. Fish. Res. 146: 27-40. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2013.03.015.
16. Forrest, R.E., McAllister, M.K., Dorn, M.W., Martell, S.J.D., and Stanley, R.D. 2010. Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of recruitment parameters and reference points for Pacific rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) under alternative assumptions about the stock-recruit function. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 67(10): 1611-1634. doi:10.1139/F10-077.
17. Francis, R.C. 1974. Relationship of fishing mortality to natural mortality at the level of maximum sustainable yield under the logistic stock production model. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 31(9): 1539-1542. doi:10.1139/f74-189.
18. Francis, R.I.C.C. 2012. The reliability of estimates of natural mortality from stock assessment models. Fish. Res. 119-120: 133-134. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.12.005.
19. Gaichas, S.K., Odell, G., Aydin, K.Y., and Francis, R.C. 2012. Beyond the defaults: functional response parameter space and ecosystem-level fishing thresholds in dynamic food web model simulations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69(12): 2077-2094. doi:10.1139/f2012-099.
20. Gislason, H. 1999. Single and multispecies reference points for Baltic fish stocks. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 56: 571-583. doi:10.1006/jmsc.1999.0492.
21. Haltuch, M.A., Punt, A.E., and Dorn, M.W. 2008. Evaluating alternative estimators of fishery management reference points. Fish. Res. 94: 290-303. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2008.01.008.
22. Haltuch, M.A., Punt, A.E., and Dorn, M.W. 2009. Evaluating the estimation of fishery management reference points in a variable environment. Fish. Res. 100: 42-56. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2009.03.001.
23. Hart, D.R. 2013. Quantifying the tradeoff between precaution and yield in fishery reference points. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 70: 591-603. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fss204.
24. Hart, D.R., Jacobson, L.D., and Tang, J. 2013. To split or not to split: Assessment of Georges Bank sea scallops in the presence of marine protected areas. Fish. Res. 144: 74-83. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2012.11.004.
25. He, X., Ralston, S., and MacCall, A.D. 2011. Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models. Fish. Bull. 109: 198-216.
26. Hollowed, A.B., Ianelli, J.N., and Livingston, P.A. 2000. Including predation mortality in stock assessments: a case study involving Gulf of Alaska walleye pollock. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57: 279-293. doi:10.1006/jmsc.1999.0637.
27. Hollowed, A.B., Barange, M., Beamish, R.J., Brander, K., Cochrane, K., Drinkwater, K., Foreman, M.G.G., Hare, J.A., Holt, J., Ito, S., Kim, S., King, J.R., Loeng, H., MacKenzie, B.R., Mueter, F.J., Okey, T.A., Peck, M.A., Radchenko, V.I., Rice, J.C., Schirripa, M.J., Yatsu, A., and Yamanaka, Y. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on marine fish and fisheries. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 70: 1023-1037. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst081.
28. Horbowy, J., and Luzen´ czyk, A. 2012. The estimation and robustness of FMSY and alternative fishing mortality reference points associated with high long-term yield. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69(9): 1468-1480. doi:10.1139/f2012-070.
29. Jiao, Y., Smith, E.P., O’Reilly, R., and Orth, D.J. 2012. Modelling non-stationary natural mortality in catch-at-age models. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 69: 105-118. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr184.
30. Jørgensen, C., and Holt, R.E. 2013. Natural mortality: Its ecology, how it shapes fish life histories, and why it may be increased by fishing. J. Sea Res. 75: 8-18. doi:10.1016/j.seares.2012.04.003.
31. Jurado-Molina, J., Livingston, P.A., and Ianelli, J.N. 2005. Incorporating predation interactions in a statistical catch-at-age model for a predator-prey system in the eastern Bering Sea. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 62(8): 1865-1873. doi:10.1139/f05-110.
32. King, J.R., and McFarlane, G.A. 2006. A framework for incorporating climate regime shifts into the management of marine resources. Fish. Manage. Ecol. 13: 93-102. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2400.2006.00480.x.
33. Lambert, Y. 2011. Environmental and fishing limitations to the rebuilding of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stocks (Gadus morhua). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 68(4): 618-631. doi:10.1139/f2011-007.
34. Lee, H.H., Maunder, M.N., Piner, K.R., and Methot, R.D. 2011. Estimating natural mortality within a fisheries stock assessment model: An evaluation using simulation analysis based on twelve stock assessments. Fish. Res. 109: 89-94. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2011.01.021.
35. Legault, C.M., and Brooks, E.N. 2013. Can stock-recruitment points determine which spawning potential ratio is the best proxy for maximum sustainable yield reference points? ICES J. Mar. Sci. 70: 1075-1080. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst105.
36. Legault, C.M. 2009. Report of the Retrospective Working Group, 14-16 January 2008, Woods Hole, Mass. US Department of Commerce Northeast Fisheries ScienceCenterReferenceDocument09-01[online].Availablefrom http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/crd/crd0901/.
37. Legault, C.M., and Restrepo, V.R. 1999. A flexible forward age-structured assessment program. Int. Comm. Cons. Atl. Tunas, Coll. Vol. Sci. Pap. 49(2): 246-253.
38. Legault, C.M., Alade, L., Stone, H.H., and Gross, W.E. 2012. Stock Assessment of Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder for 2012. Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee Reference Document 2012/02.
39. Legault, C.M., Alade, L., Gross, W.E., and Stone, H.H. 2013. Stock Assessment of Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder for 2013. Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee Reference Document 2013/01.
40. Legault, C.M., Alade, L., Gross, W.E., and Stone, H.H. 2014. Stock Assessment of Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder for 2014. Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee Reference Document 2014/01.
41. Livingston, P.A., and Methot, R.D. 1998. Incorporation of predation into a population assessment model of Eastern Bering Sea walleye pollock. In Fishery stock assessment models. Alaska Sea Grant College Program Publication AK-SG-98-01. pp. 663-678.
42. Möllmann, C., Lindegren, M., Blenckner, T., Bergstrom, L., Casini, M., Diekmann, R., Flinkman, J., Muller-Karulis, B., Neuenfeldt, S., Schmidt, J. O., Tomczak, M., Voss, R., and Gardmark, A. 2014. Implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management: from single-species to integrated ecosystem assessment and advice for Baltic Sea fish stocks. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71: 1187-1197. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst123.
43. Mace, P.M. 2001. A new role for MSY in single-species and ecosystem approaches to fisheries stock assessment and management. Fish Fish. 2: 2-32. doi:10.1046/j.1467-2979.2001.00033.x.
44. Magnusson, A., and Hilborn, R. 2007. What makes fisheries data informative? Fish Fish. 8: 337-358. doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2007.00258.x.
45. Marty, G.D., Quinn, T.J., II, Carpenter, G., Meyers, T.R., and Willits, N.H. 2003. Role of disease in abundance of a Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) population. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 60(10): 1258-1265. doi:10.1139/f03-109.
46. Mohn, R. 1999. The retrospective problem in sequential population analysis: An investigation using cod fishery and simulated data. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 56: 473-488. doi:10.1006/jmsc.1999.0481.
47. Morgan, M.J., Shelton, P.A., and Rideout, R.M. 2014. Varying components of productivity and their impact on fishing mortality reference points for Grand Bank Atlantic cod and American plaice. Fish. Res. 155: 64-73. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2014.02.019.
48. NEFSC. 2008. Assessment of 19 Northeast Groundfish Stocks through 2007: Report of the 3rd Groundfish Assessment Review Meeting (GARM III), Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, Mass., August 4-8, 2008. US Dept Commer, Northeast Fish Sci Cent Ref Doc. 08-15 [online]. Available from http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/crd/crd0815/crd0815.pdf.
49. NEFSC. 2012a. 53rd Northeast regional stock assessment workshop (53rd SAW) assessment summary report. US Department of Commerce Northeast Fisheries Science Center Reference Document 12-03 [online]. Available from http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/saw/saw53/crd1203.pdf.
50. NEFSC. 2012b. 54th Northeast regional stock assessment workshop (54th SAW) assessment report. US Department of Commerce Northeast Fisheries Science Center Reference Document 12-18 [online]. Available from http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/crd/crd1218/.
51. NEFSC. 2013. 55th Northeast regional stock assessment workshop (55th SAW) assessment summary report. US Department of Commerce Northeast Fisheries Science Center Reference Document 13-01 [online]. Available from http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/saw/saw55/crd1301.pdf.
52. Overholtz, W.J., Jacobson, L.D., and Link, J.S. 2008. An ecosystem approach for assessment advice and biological reference points for the Gulf of Maine-Georges Bank Atlantic herring complex. N. Am. J. Fish. Manage. 28: 247-257. doi:10.1577/M06-267.1.
53. Palmer, M.C. 2014. Gulf of Maine Atlantic cod: 2014 Assessment Update Report. US Department of Commerce Northeast Fisheries Science Center Reference Document 14-14 [online]. Available from http://nefsc.noaa.gov/publications/crd/crd1414/.
54. Patterson, K.R. 1996. Modelling the impact of disease-induced mortality in an exploited population: the outbreak of the fungal parasite Ichthyophonus hoferi in the North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 53(12): 2870-2887. doi:10.1139/f96-234.
55. Plaganyi, E.E., Bell, J.D., Bustamante, R.H., Dambacher, J.M., Dennis, D.M., Dichmont, C.M., Dutra, L.X.C., Fulton, E.A., Hobday, A.J., van Putten, E.I., Smith, F., Smith, A.D.M., and Zhou, S.J. 2011. Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Mar. Freshw. Res. 62: 1132-1147. doi:10.1071/MF10279.
56. Punt, A.E., and Dorn, M. 2014. Comparisons of meta-analytic methods for deriving a probability distribution for the steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship. Fish. Res. 149: 43-54. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2013.09.015.
57. SAFE. 2014a. Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report for the groundfish resources of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands regions [online]. North Pac. Fish. Mgmt. Council, Anchorage, Alaska. Available from http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/refm/stocks/assessments.htm.
58. SAFE. 2014b. Stock assessment and fishery evaluation report for the groundfish resources of the Gulf of Alaska [online]. North Pac. Fish. Mgmt. Council, Anchorage, Alaska. Available from http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/refm/stocks/assessments.htm.
59. Scott, B., Marteinsdottir, G., and Wright, P. 1999. Potential effects of maternal factors on spawning stock-recruitment relationships under varying fishing pressure. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 56(10): 1882-1890. doi:10.1139/f99-125.
60. Shelton, P.A., Sinclair, A.F., Chouinard, G.A., Mohn, R., and Duplisea, D.E. 2006. Fishing under low productivity conditions is further delaying recovery of Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 63(2): 235-238. doi:10.1139/f05-253.
61. Shepherd, J. 1982. A versatile new stock-recruitment relationship for fisheries, and the construction of sustainable yield curves. J. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 40: 67-75. doi:10.1093/icesjms/40.1.67.
62. Sissenwine, M.P., and Shepherd, J.G. 1987. An alternative perspective on recruitment overfishing and biological reference points. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44(4): 913-918. doi:10.1139/f87-110.
63. Sissenwine, M.P., Mace, P.M., and Lassen, H.J. 2014. Preventing overfishing: evolving approaches and emerging challenges. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71: 153-156. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst236.
64. Swain, D.P., and Benoît, H.P. 2015. Extreme increases in natural mortality prevent recovery of collapsed fish populations in a Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 519: 165-182. doi:10.3354/meps11012.
65. Swain, D.P., and Mohn, R.K. 2012. Forage fish and the factors governing recovery of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the eastern Scotian Shelf. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69(6): 997-1001. doi:10.1139/f2012-045.
66. Then, A.Y., Hoenig, J.M., Hall, N.G., and Hewitt, D.A. 2014. Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 72: 82-92. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsu136.
67. Thompson, G.G. 1992. Management advice from a simple dynamic pool model. Fish. Bull. 90: 552-560.
68. Thompson, G.G. 1994. Confounding of gear selectivity and the natural mortality rate in cases where the former is a nonmonotone function of age. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 51(12): 2654-2664. doi:10.1139/f94-265.
69. Vetter, E.F. 1988. Estimation of natural mortality in fish stocks—a review. Fish. Bull. 86: 25-43.
70. Walters, C., and Parma, A.M. 1996. Fixed exploitation rate strategies for coping with effects of climate change. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 53(1): 148-158. doi:10.1139/f95-151.
71. Wang, Y., and O’Brien, L. 2012. Assessment of Eastern Georges Bank Atlantic cod for 2012. Transboundary Resources Assessment Committee Reference Document 2012/05.
72. Wilberg, M.J., Livings, M.E., Barkman, J.S., Morris, B.R., and Robinson, J.M. 2011. Overfishing, disease, habitat loss, and potential extirpation of oysters in upper Chesapeake Bay. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 436: 131-144. doi:10.3354/meps09161.
73. Williams, E.H., and Shertzer, K.W. 2003. Implications of life-history invariants for biological reference points used in fishery management. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 60(6): 710-720. doi:10.1139/f03-059.
74. Zhou, S., Yin, S., Thorson, J.T., Smith, A.D.M., and Fuller, M. 2012. Linking fishing mortality reference points to life history traits: an empirical study. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 69(8): 1292-1301. doi:10.1139/f2012-060.