Tactics and strategies for managing Ebola outbreaks and the salience of immunization

Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

Volumn 2015, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Getz, Wayne M ^a,b   Gonzalez, Jean Paul ^c   Salter, Richard ^d   Bangura, James ^c   Carlson, Colin ^a   Coomber, Moinya ^c   Dougherty, Eric ^a   Kargbo, David ^e   Wolfe, Nathan D ^c   Wauquier, Nadia ^c,f  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

^c METABIOTA INC   (United States)

^d OBERLIN COLLEGE   (United States)

^e Ministry of Health and Sanitation   (Sierra Leone)

^f SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; VACCINES; VIRUSES;

CURRENT GENERATION; EBOLA VIRUS; EDUCATIONAL CAMPAIGNS; RAPID ISOLATION; SIERRA LEONE; SIMULATION MODEL; TRANSMISSION CHAINS; VIRAL DISEASE;

DISEASES;

EBOLA VACCINE;

AFRICA; ARTICLE; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EPIDEMIC; GUINEA; HEALTH CARE PERSONNEL; HUMAN; IMMUNIZATION; LIBERIA; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; SIERRA LEONE; SIMULATION; STRATEGIC PLANNING; VACCINATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ALGORITHM; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EBOLAVIRUS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; MARKOV CHAIN; PATIENT ISOLATION; PREVENTIVE HEALTH SERVICE; PROCEDURES; SOFTWARE; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION;

EBOLA VIRUS;

ALGORITHMS; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EBOLA VACCINES; EBOLAVIRUS; EPIDEMICS; GUINEA; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS; IMMUNIZATION PROGRAMS; LIBERIA; MARKOV CHAINS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PATIENT ISOLATION; SIERRA LEONE; SOFTWARE; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; VACCINATION;

EID: 84924088818     PISSN: 1748670X     EISSN: 17486718     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1155/2015/736507     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. S. K. Gire, A. Goba, K. G. Andersen et al., "Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak," Science, vol. 345, no. 6202, pp. 1369-1372, 2014.
2. WHO Ebola Response Team, "Ebola virus disease in West Africa-the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections," The New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 371, no. 16, pp. 1481-1495, 2014.
3. J. Legrand, R. F. Grais, P. Y. Boelle, A. J. Valleron, and A. Flahault, "Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics," Epidemiology and Infection, vol. 135, no. 4, pp. 610-621, 2007.
4. H. Feldmann and T. W. Geisbert, "Ebola haemorrhagic fever," The Lancet, vol. 377, no. 9768, pp. 849-862, 2011.
5. X. Pourrut, B. Kumulungui, T. Wittmann et al., "The natural history of Ebola virus in Africa," Microbes and Infection, vol. 7, no. 7-8, pp. 1005-1014, 2005.
6. D. G. Bausch and L. Schwarz, "Outbreak of ebola virus disease in Guinea: where ecology meets economy," PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 8, no. 7, Article ID e3056, 2014.
7. M. F. C. Gomes, A. Pastorey Piontti, L. Rossi et al., "Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak," PLoS Current Outbreaks, 2014.
8. C. Althaus, "Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa," PLoS Currents Outbreaks, 2014.
9. D. N. Fisman, T. S. Hauck, A. R. Tuite, and A. L. Greer, "An IDEA for short termoutbreak projection: nearcasting using the basic reproduction number," PLoSONE, vol. 8, no. 12, Article ID e83622, 2013.
10. D.N. Fisman, E. Khoo, and A. R. Tuite, "Early epidemic dynamics of the west african 2014 ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model," PLOS Currents Outbreaks, 2014.
11. G. Chowell, N. W. Hengartner, C. Castillo-Chavez, P. W. Fenimore, and J. M. Hyman, "The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda," Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 229, no. 1, pp. 119-126, 2004.
12. T. Stadler, D. Kühnert, D. A. Rasmussen, and L. du Plessis, "Insights into the early epidemic spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone provided by viral sequence data," PLoS Current Outbreaks, 2014.
13. J. O. Lloyd-Smith, P. C. Cross, C. J. Briggs et al., "Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?" Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 20, no. 9, pp. 511-519, 2005.
14. J. O. Lloyd-Smith, S. J. Schreiber, P. E. Kopp, and W. M. Getz, "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, vol. 438, no. 7066, pp. 355-359, 2005.
15. A. P. Galvani, M. L. Ndeffo-Mbah, N. Wenzel, and J. E. Childs, "Ebola vaccination: if not now, when?" Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 161, no. 10, pp. 749-750, 2014.
16. A. D. Barbour and S. Utev, "Approximating the Reed-Frost epidemic process," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, vol. 113, no. 2, pp. 173-197, 2004.
17. D. Plachouras, B. Sudre, M. Testa, E. Robesyn, and D. Coulombier, "Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014-Eurosurveillance 17 September 2014," Eurosurveillance, vol. 19, no. 37, Article ID 20907, 2014.
18. S. J. Schreiber and J. O. Lloyd-Smith, "Invasion dynamics in spatially heterogeneous environments," American Naturalist, vol. 174, no. 4, pp. 490-505, 2009.
19. W. M. Getz and J.O. Lloyd-Smith, "Basicmethods formodeling the invasion and spread of contagious diseases," in Disease Evolution: Models, Concepts, and Data Analysis, Z. Feng, U. Dieckmann, and S. A. Levin, Eds., pp. 87-109, AMS/DIMACS, 2006.
20. P. C. Cross, P. L. F. Johnson, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, and W.M. Getz, "Utility of R0 as a predictor of disease invasion in structured populations," Journal of the Royal Society Interface, vol. 4, no. 13, pp. 315-324, 2007.
21. 0," Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, vol. 2011, Article ID 527610, 17 pages, 2011.
22. G. Magiorkinis, V. Sypsa, E. Magiorkinis et al., "Integrating phylodynamics and epidemiology to estimate transmission diversity in viral epidemics," PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 9, no. 1, Article ID e1002876, 2013.
23. C. Colijn and J. Gardy, "Phylogenetic tree shapes resolve disease transmission patterns," Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health, vol. 2014, no. 1, pp. 96-108, 2014.
24. F. Murai, B. Ribeiro, D. Towsley, and K. Gile, "Characterizing branching processes from sampled data," in Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on World Wide Web Companion, pp. 805-812, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 2013.
25. S. K. Gire, A. Goba, K. G. Andersen et al., "Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak," Science, vol. 345, no. 6202, pp. 1369-1372, 2014.
26. G. E. Leventhal, R. Kouyos, T. Stadler et al., "Inferring epidemic contact structure fromphylogenetic trees," PLoS Computational Biology, vol. 8, no. 3, Article ID e1002413, 10 pages, 2012.
27. B. T. Grenfell, O. G. Pybus, J. R. Gog et al., "Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens," Science, vol. 303, no. 5656, pp. 327-332, 2004.
28. X. Didelot, J. Gardy, and C. Colijn, "Bayesian inference of infectious disease transmission from whole-genome sequence data," Molecular Biology and Evolution, vol. 31, no. 7, pp. 1869-1879, 2014.
29. M. J. Ferrari, R. F. Grais, N. Bharti et al., "The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature, vol. 451, no. 7179, pp. 679-684, 2008.
30. M. Eichner, S. F. Dowell, and N. Firese, "Incubation period of ebola hemorrhagic virus subtype Zaire," Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 3-7, 2011.
31. N. C. Grassly and C. Fraser, "Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission," Nature Reviews Microbiology, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 477-487, 2008.
32. A. P. Galvani, "Epidemiology meets evolutionary ecology," Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 132-139, 2003.
33. M. Viana, R. Mancy, R. Biek et al., "Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection," Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 270-279, 2014.
34. B. Grenfell and J. Harwood, "(Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases," Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 12, no. 10, pp. 395-399, 1997.
35. S. E. Bellan, J. R. C. Pulliam, J. Dushoff, and L. A. Meyers, "Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola," The Lancet, vol. 381, p. 1561, 2014.
36. P. Becquart, N. Wauquier, T. Mahlakõiv et al., "High prevalence of both humoral and cellular immunity to Zaire ebolavirus among rural populations in Gabon," PLoS ONE, vol. 5, no. 2, Article ID e9126, 2010.