Developing Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality

Indian Journal of Surgery

Volumn 78, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 136-143

  Wen, Zhang ^a   Guo, Ya ^a   Xu, Banghao ^a   Xiao, Kaiyin ^a   Peng, Tao ^a   Peng, Minhao ^a  

^a GUANGXI MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Methodology; Postoperative pancreatic fistula; Prediction model; Systematic review

Indexed keywords

EID: 84955266142     PISSN: 09722068     EISSN: 09739793     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12262-015-1439-9     Document Type: Review

References (39)

1. Pratt WB, Maithel SK, Vanounou T, Huang ZS, Callery MP, Vollmer CM Jr (2007) Clinical and economic validation of the international study group of pancreatic fistula (ISGPF) classification scheme. Ann Surg 245(3):443–451
2. Reid-Lombardo KM, Farnell MB, Crippa S, Barnett M, Maupin G, Bassi C et al (2007) Pancreatic anastomotic leakage after pancreaticoduodenectomy in 1,507 patients: a report from the pancreatic anastomotic leak study group. J Gastrointest Surg 11(11):1451–1458, discussion 59
3. Bassi C, Dervenis C, Butturini G, Fingerhut A, Yeo C, Izbicki J et al (2005) Postoperative pancreatic fistula: an international study group (ISGPF) definition. Surgery 138(1):8–13
4. Buchler MW, Friess H, Wagner M, Kulli C, Wagener V, Z’Graggen K (2000) Pancreatic fistula after pancreatic head resection. Br J Surg 87(7):883–889
5. Wellner U, Makowiec F, Fischer E, Hopt UT, Keck T (2009) Reduced postoperative pancreatic fistula rate after pancreatogastrostomy versus pancreaticojejunostomy. J Gastrointest Surg 13(4):745–751
6. Ferrone CR, Warshaw AL, Rattner DW, Berger D, Zheng H, Rawal B et al (2008) Pancreatic fistula rates after 462 distal pancreatectomies: staplers do not decrease fistula rates. J Gastrointest Surg 12(10):1691–1697, Discussion 97–8
7. Goh BK, Tan YM, Chung YF, Cheow PC, Ong HS, Chan WH et al (2008) Critical appraisal of 232 consecutive distal pancreatectomies with emphasis on risk factors, outcome, and management of the postoperative pancreatic fistula: a 21-year experience at a single institution. Arch Surg 143(10):956–965
8. Yamamoto Y, Sakamoto Y, Nara S, Esaki M, Shimada K, Kosuge T (2011) A preoperative predictive scoring system for postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy. World J Surg 35(12):2747–2755
9. Hubbard TJ, Lawson-McLean A, Fearon KC (2011) Nutritional predictors of postoperative outcome in pancreatic cancer. Br J Surg 98:268–274, Br J Surg 2011;98(7):1032; author reply 32–3
10. Gaujoux S, Cortes A, Couvelard A, Noullet S, Clavel L, Rebours V et al (2010) Fatty pancreas and increased body mass index are risk factors of pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Surgery 148(1):15–23
11. Braga M, Capretti G, Pecorelli N, Balzano G, Doglioni C, Ariotti R et al (2011) A prognostic score to predict major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Ann Surg 254(5):702–707, Discussion 07–8
12. Belyaev O, Munding J, Herzog T, Suelberg D, Tannapfel A, Schmidt WE et al (2011) Histomorphological features of the pancreatic remnant as independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula: a matched-pairs analysis. Pancreatology 11(5):516–524
13. Wellner UF, Kayser G, Lapshyn H, Sick O, Makowiec F, Hoppner J et al (2010) A simple scoring system based on clinical factors related to pancreatic texture predicts postoperative pancreatic fistula preoperatively. HPB Oxford 12(10):696–702
14. Konstadoulakis MM, Filippakis GM, Lagoudianakis E, Antonakis PT, Dervenis C, Bramis J (2005) Intra-arterial bolus octreotide administration during Whipple procedure in patients with fragile pancreas: a novel technique for safer pancreaticojejunostomy. J Surg Oncol 89(4):268–272
15. Alghamdi AA, Jawas AM, Hart RS (2007) Use of octreotide for the prevention of pancreatic fistula after elective pancreatic surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Can J Surg 50(6):459–466
16. Moher D, Liberati A, Tetzlaff J, Altman DG (2009) Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement. BMJ 339:b2535
17. Lee SE, Jang JY, Lim CS, Kang MJ, Kim SH, Kim MA et al (2010) Measurement of pancreatic fat by magnetic resonance imaging: predicting the occurrence of pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. Ann Surg 251(5):932–936
18. Kawai M, Tani M, Hirono S, Ina S, Miyazawa M, Yamaue H (2009) How do we predict the clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy?--an analysis in 244 consecutive patients. World J Surg 33(12):2670–2678
19. Peduzzi P, Concato J, Kemper E, Holford TR, Feinstein AR (1996) A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis. J Clin Epidemiol 49(12):1373–1379
20. Babyak MA (2004) What you see may not be what you get: a brief, nontechnical introduction to overfitting in regression-type models. Psychosom Med 66(3):411–421
21. Altman DG, Vergouwe Y, Royston P, Moons KG (2009) Prognosis and prognostic research: validating a prognostic model. BMJ 338:b605
22. Mallett S, Royston P, Dutton S, Waters R, Altman DG (2010) Reporting methods in studies developing prognostic models in cancer: a review. BMC Med 8:20
23. Royston P, Altman DG, Sauerbrei W (2006) Dichotomizing continuous predictors in multiple regression: a bad idea. Stat Med 25(1):127–141
24. Counsell C, Dennis M (2001) Systematic review of prognostic models in patients with acute stroke. Cerebrovasc Dis 12(3):159–170
25. Jacob M, Lewsey JD, Sharpin C, Gimson A, Rela M, van der Meulen JH (2005) Systematic review and validation of prognostic models in liver transplantation. Liver Transpl 11(7):814–825
26. Hukkelhoven CW, Rampen AJ, Maas AI, Farace E, Habbema JD, Marmarou A et al (2006) Some prognostic models for traumatic brain injury were not valid. J Clin Epidemiol 59(2):132–143
27. Mushkudiani NA, Hukkelhoven CW, Hernandez AV, Murray GD, Choi SC, Maas AI et al (2008) A systematic review finds methodological improvements necessary for prognostic models in determining traumatic brain injury outcomes. J Clin Epidemiol 61(4):331–343
28. Lagakos SW (1988) Effects of mismodelling and mismeasuring explanatory variables on tests of their association with a response variable. Stat Med 7(1–2):257–274
29. Collins GS, Mallett S, Omar O, Yu LM (2011) Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting. BMC Med 9:103
30. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB (1996) Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors. Stat Med 15(4):361–387
31. Marshall A, Altman DG, Royston P, Holder RL (2010) Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study. BMC Med Res Methodol 10:7
32. Vergouwe Y, Royston P, Moons KG, Altman DG (2010) Development and validation of a prediction model with missing predictor data: a practical approach. J Clin Epidemiol 63(2):205–214
33. Sun GW, Shook TL, Kay GL (1996) Inappropriate use of bivariable analysis to screen risk factors for use in multivariable analysis. J Clin Epidemiol 49(8):907–916
34. Austin PC, Tu JV (2004) Automated variable selection methods for logistic regression produced unstable models for predicting acute myocardial infarction mortality. J Clin Epidemiol 57(11):1138–1146
35. Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJ, Harrell FE Jr, Habbema JD (2000) Prognostic modelling with logistic regression analysis: a comparison of selection and estimation methods in small data sets. Stat Med 19(8):1059–1079
36. Steyerberg EW, Harrell FE Jr, Borsboom GJ, Eijkemans MJ, Vergouwe Y, Habbema JD (2001) Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis. J Clin Epidemiol 54(8):774–781
37. Altman DG, Royston P (2000) What do we mean by validating a prognostic model? Stat Med 19(4):453–473
38. Bleeker SE, Moll HA, Steyerberg EW, Donders AR, Derksen-Lubsen G, Grobbee DE et al (2003) External validation is necessary in prediction research: a clinical example. J Clin Epidemiol 56(9):826–832
39. Reilly BM, Evans AT (2006) Translating clinical research into clinical practice: impact of using prediction rules to make decisions. Ann Intern Med 144(3):201–209