Evaluation of a modern-analogue methodology for reconstructing Australian palaeoclimate from pollen

Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology

Volumn 226, Issue , 2016, Pages 65-77

  Herbert, Annika V ^a   Harrison, Sandy P ^a,b  

^a MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic variables; Climate reconstructions; Human impact; Modern analogue technique; Palaeoclimate benchmarking; Pollen surface samples

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BENCHMARKING; BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CLIMATE MODELING; DATA SET; PALEOCLIMATE; PALYNOLOGY; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; POLLEN; RECONSTRUCTION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84954350024     PISSN: 00346667     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.revpalbo.2015.12.006     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Bartlein P.J., Webb T., Fleri E. Holocene climatic change in the Northern Midwest: pollen-derived estimates. Quat. Res. 1984, 22:361-374.
2. Bartlein P.J., Prentice I.C., Webb T. Climatic response surfaces from pollen data for some eastern north American taxa. J. Biogeogr. 1986, 13(1):35-57.
3. Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P., Brewer S., Connor S., Davis B.A.S., Gajewski K., Guiot J., Harrison-Prentice T.I., Henderson A., Peyron O., Prentice I.C., Scholze M., Seppä H., Shuman B., Sugita S., Thompson R.S., Viau A.E., Williams J., Wu H. Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21ka: a global synthesis. Clim. Dyn. 2011, 37:775-802.
4. Birks H.J.B., Line J.M., Juggins S., Stevenson A.C., Ter Braak C.J.F. Diatoms and pH reconstruction. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 1990, 327:263-278.
5. Black M.P. A Late Quaternary Palaeoenvironmental Investigation of the Fire, Climate, Human and Vegetation Nexus from the Sydney Basin, Australia 2006, Ph.D. Thesis, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
6. Boyd W.E. Quaternary pollen analysis in the arid zone of Australia: Dalhousie Springs, Central Australia. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 1990, 64:331-341.
7. Braconnot P., Harrison S.P., Kageyama M., Bartlein P.J., Masson-Delmotte V., Abe-Ouchi A., Otto-Bliesner B., Zhao Y. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2012, 2:417-424.
8. Bunting M.J., Gaillard M.J., Sugita S., Middleton R., Broström A. Vegetation structure and pollen source area. The Holocene 2004, 14(5):651-660.
9. Carnahan, J.A., 1997. Australia natural vegetation: Australia's vegetation in the 1780's. Map (1:5 000 000). Australian Surveying & Land Information Group (AUSLIG), Belconnen, Australia.
10. Cheddadi R., Yu G., Guiot J., Harrison S.P., Prentice I.C. The climate of Europe 6000years ago. Clim. Dyn. 1997, 13:1-9.
11. Connor S.E., Kvavadze E.V. Modelling late Quaternary changes in plant distribution, vegetation and climate using pollen data from Georgia, Caucasus. J. Biogeogr. 2008, 36:529-545.
12. Cook E.J., van der Kaars S. Development and testing of transfer functions for generating quantitative climatic estimates from Australian pollen data. J. Quat. Sci. 2006, 21(7):723-733.
13. Cramer W., Prentice I.C. Simulation of regional soil moisture deficits on a European scale. Nor. Geogr. Tidsskr. 1988, 42:149-151.
14. Cundill P.R. Comparisons of moss polster and pollen trap data: a pilot study. Grana 1991, 30:301-308.
15. D'Costa D., Kershaw A.P. An expanded recent pollen database from south-eastern Australia and its potential for refinement of palaeoclimatic estimates. Aust. J. Bot. 1997, 45:583-605.
16. Davis B.A.S., Brewer S., Stevenson A.C., Guiot J., Contributors Data The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2003, 22:1701-1716.
17. Diaz H.F., Markgraf V. El Niño: Historical and Palaeoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation 1992, University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
18. Dodson J.R., Mooney S.D. An assessment of historic human impact on south-eastern Australian environmental systems, using late Holocene rates of environmental change. Aust. J. Bot. 2002, 50:455-464.
19. Efron, B., Efron, B., 1982. The Jacknife, the Bootstrap, and Other Resampling Plans. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 38, i-xi. doi:10.1137/1.9781611970319.fm.
20. Fierro A.O., Leslie L.M. Relationships between southeast Australian temperature anomalies and large-scale climate drivers. J. Clim. 2014, 27:1395-1412.
21. Fletcher M.-S., Thomas I. A Holocene record of sea level, vegetation, people and fire from western Tasmania, Australia. The Holocene 2010, 20(3):351-361.
22. Freedman D.A. Bootstrapping regression models. Ann. Stat. 1981, 9(6):1218-1228.
23. Gajewski K., Vance R., Sawada M., Fung I., Gignac L.D., Halsey L., John J., Malsongrande P., Mandell P., Mudle P.J., Richard P.J.H., Sherin A.G., Soroko J., Vitt D.H. The climate of North America and adjacent ocean waters ca 6ka. Can. J. Earth Sci. 2000, 37:661-681.
24. Gell P.A., Stuart I.-M., Smith J.D. The response of vegetation to changing fire regimes and human activity in East Gippsland, Victoria, Australia. The Holocene 1993, 3(2):150-160.
25. Gonzales L.M., Williams J.W., Grimm E.C. Expanded response-surfaces: a new method to reconstruct paleoclimates from fossil pollen assemblages that lack modern analogues. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2009, 28:3315-3332.
26. Goring S., Lacourse T., Pellatt M.G., Walker I.R., Mathewes R.W. Are pollen-based climate models improved by combining surface samples from soil and lacustrine substrates?. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 2010, 162:203-212.
27. Guiot J., Haibin W., Wenying J., Yunli L. East Asian Monsoon and palaeoclimatic data analysis: a vegetation point of view. Clim. Past 2008, 4(2):137-145.
28. Harris I., Jones P.D., Osborn T.J., Lister D.H. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 2014, 34:623-642.
29. Harrison S.P. Late Quaternary lake-level changes and climates of Australia. Quat. Sci. Rev. 1993, 12:211-231.
30. Harrison S.P., Dodson J. Climates of Australia and New Guinea Since 18,000yr BP. Global Climates Since the Last Glacial Maximum 1993, 265-293. University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis. H.E. Wright (Ed.).
31. Harrison S.P., Prentice I.C., Barboni D., Kohfeld K.E., Ni J., Sutra J.-P. Ecophysiological and bioclimatic foundations for a global plant functional classification. J. Veg. Sci. 2010, 21:300-317.
32. Harrison S.P., Bartlein P.J., Brewer S., Prentice I.C., Boyd M., Hessler I., Holmgren K., Izumi K., Willis K. Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates. Clim. Dyn. 2013, 43:671-688.
33. Hesse P.P., Magee J.W., van der Kaars S. Late Quaternary climates of the Australian arid zone: a review. Quat. Int. 2004, 118-119:87-102.
34. Howe S., Webb T. Calibrating pollen data in climatic terms: improving the methods. Quat. Sci. Rev. 1983, 2:17-51.
35. Huntley B., Prentice I.C. July temperatures in Europe from pollen data, 6000years before present. Sci. New Series 1988, 241(4866):687-690.
36. Hutchinson M.F. Anusplin Version 4.3. Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies 2004, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT.
37. Izumi K., Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P. Consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40:1817-1823.
38. Izumi K., Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P. Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 10.1007/s00382-014-2189-2.
39. Jackson S.T., Williams J.W. Modern analogs in Quaternary paleoecology: here today, gone yesterday, gone tomorrow?. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 2004, 32:495-537.
40. Jones D.A., Wang W., Fawcett R. High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Ocean 2009, 58:233-248.
41. Jost A., Lunt D., Kageyama M., Abe-Ouchi A., Peyron O., Valdes P.J., Ramstein G. High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions?. Clim. Dyn. 2005, 24:577-590.
42. Juggins S. Rioja: Analysis of Quaternary Science Data, R Package Version (0.8-7) 2012, (http://cran.r-project.org/package=rioja), last accessed: 26/09/2014).
43. Juggins S., Birks H.J.B. Chapter 14: Quantitative Environmental Reconstructions from Biological Data. Volume 5: Data handling and numerical techniques 2012, Springer Science + Business Media B.V., Springer Netherlands. H.J.B. Birks, A.F. Lotter, S. Juggins, J.P. Smol (Eds.).
44. Kershaw P., van der Kaars S. Australia and the Southwest Pacific. Quaternary Environmental Change in the Tropics 2012, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., West Sussex, United Kingdom. S.E. Metcalfe, D.J. Nash (Eds.).
45. Kershaw A.P., Bulman D., Busby J.R. An examination of modern and pre-European settlement pollen samples from southeastern Australia-assessment of their application to quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation and climate. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 1994, 82:83-96.
46. Kershaw P., Moss P., van der Kaars S. Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent. Freshw. Biol. 2003, 48:1274-1283.
47. Li S., Xie Y., Brown D.G., Bai Y., Hua J., Judd K. Spatial variability of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to climatic change in Inner Mongolia of China. Appl. Geogr. 2013, 43:1-12.
48. Luo C., Zheng Z., Tarasov P., Nakagawa T., Pan A., Xu Q., Lu H., Huang K. A potential of pollen-based climate reconstruction using a modern pollen-climate dataset from arid northern and western China. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 2010, 160:111-125.
49. Martin H.A. Cenozoic climatic change and the development of the arid vegetation in Australia. J. Arid Environ. 2006, 66:533-563.
50. McBride J.L., Nicholls N. Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 1983, 111:1998-2004.
51. Mooney S.D., Dodson J.R. A comparison of the environmental changes of the post-European period with those of the preceding 2000years at lake keilambete, south-western Victoria. Aust. Geogr. 2001, 32(2):163-179.
52. Morice C.P., Kennedy J.J., Rayner N.A., Jones P.D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 2012, 117. 10.1029/2011JD017187.
53. Moss P.T., Kershaw A.P., Grindrod J. Pollen transport and deposition in riverine and marine environments within the humid tropics of northeastern Australia. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 2005, 134:55-69.
54. Nanson G.C., Price D.M., Jones B.G., Maroulis J.C., Coleman M., Bowman H., Cohen T.J., Pietsch T.J., Larsen J.R. Alluvial evidence for major climate and flow regime changes during the middle and late Quaternary in eastern central Australia. Geomorphology 2008, 101:109-129.
55. Neukom R., Ahmed M., Anchukaitis K.J., Asrat A., Borgaonkar H.P., Braida M., Buckley B.M., Büntgen U., Chase B.M., Christie D.A., Cook E.R., Curran M.A.J., Diaz H.F., Esper J., Fan Z.-X., Gaire N.P., Ge Q., Gergis J., González-Rouco J.F., Goosse H., Grab S.W., Graham N., Graham R., Grosjean M., Hanhijärvi S.T., Kaufman D.S., Kiefer T., Kimura K., Korhola A.A., Krusic P.J., Lara A., Lézine A.-M., Ljungqvist F.C., Lorrey A.M., Luterbacher J., Masson-Delmotte V., McCarroll D., McConnell J.R., McKay N.P., Morales M.S., Moy A.D., Mulvaney R., Mundo I.A., Nakatsuka T., Nash D.J., Nicholson S.E., Oerter H., Palmer J.G., Phipps S.J., Prieto M.R., Rivera A., Sano M., Severi M., Shanahan T.M., Shao X., Shi F., Sigl M., Smerdon J.E., Solomina O.N., Steig E.J., Stenni B., Thamban M., Trouet V., Turney C.S.M., Umer M., van Ommen T., Verschuren D., Viau A.E., Villalba R., Vinther B.M., von Gunten L., Wagner S., Wahl E.R., Wanner H., Werner J.P., White J.W.C., Yasue K., Zorita E. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat. Geosci. 2013, 6:339-346.
56. Neukom R., Gergis J., Karoly D.J., Wanner H., Curran M., Elbert J., Gonzalez-Rouco F., Linsley B.K., Moy A.D., Mundo I., Raible C.C., Steig E.J., van Ommen T., Vance T., Villalba R., Zinke J., Frank D. Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2014, 4:362-367.
57. New M., Lister D., Hulme M., Makin I. A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Clim. Res. 2002, 21:1-25.
58. Overpeck J.T., Webb T., Prentice I.C. Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogs. Quat. Res. 1985, 23:87-108.
59. Peterson T.C., Vose R.S. An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 1997, 78:2837-2849.
60. 14C Yr B.P. as inferred from pollen data. Quat. Res. 2000, 54:90-101.
61. Peyron O., Jolly D., Braconnot P., Bonnefille R., Guiot J., Wirrmann D., Chalie F. Quantitative reconstructions of annual rainfall in Africa 6000years ago: model-data comparison. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111. 10.1029/2006JD007396.
62. Pickett E.J., Newsome J.C. Eucalyptus (myrtaceae) pollen and its potential role in investigations of Holocene environments in southwestern Australia. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 1997, 98:187-205.
63. 14C yr BP. J. Biogeogr. 2004, 31:1381-1444.
64. Prentice I.C. Pollen representation, source area, and basin size: toward a unified theory of pollen analysis. Quat. Res. 1985, 23:76-86.
65. Prentice I.C. Principles of vegetation sensing by pollen analysis. Vegetation history: Hand. Veg. Sci. 1988, 7:385-414.
66. Schäfer-Neth C., Paul A. The Atlantic Ocean at the Last Glacial Maximum: 1. Objective mapping of the GLAMAP sea-surface conditions. The South Atlantic in the Late Quaternary: Reconstruction of Material Budgets and Current Systems 2003, 531-548. Springer, Berlin pp. G. Wefer, S. Mulitza, V. Ratmeyer (Eds.).
67. Schmidt G.A., Annan J.D., Bartlein P.J., Cook B.I., Guilyardi E., Hargreaves J.C., Harrison S.P., Kageyama M., LeGrande A.N., Konecky B., Lovejoy S., Mann M.E., Masson-Delmotte V., Risi C., Thompson D., Timmermann A., Tremblay L.-B., Yiou Y. Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Clim. Past 2014, 10:221-250.
68. Shao J., Tu D. The jackknife and bootstrap. Springer, New York, USA pp. 1995, 86-90.
69. Shulmeister J., Lees B.G. Pollen evidence from tropical Australia for the onset of an ENSO-dominated climate at c. 4000 BP. The Holocene 1995, 5(1):10-18.
70. Simpson G.L. Chapter 15: Analogue methods in palaeolimnology. Tracking Environmental Change Using Lake Sediments, Developments in Palaeoenvironmental Research 5 2012, 495-522. Springer Science + Business Media. H.J.B. Birks, A.F. Lotter, S. Juggins, J.P. Smol (Eds.).
71. Sturman A., Tapper N. The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand 2005, 541. Oxford University Press, Melbourne. second ed.
72. Sugita S. Pollen representation of vegetation in Quaternary sediments: theory and method in patchy vegetation. J. Ecol. 1994, 82:881-897.
73. Sugita S. Theory of quantitative reconstruction of vegetation I: pollen from large sites REVEALS regional vegetation composition. The Holocene 2007, 17:229-241.
74. Sugita S. Theory of quantitative reconstruction of vegetation II: all you need is LOVE. The Holocene 2007, 17:243-257.
75. Tarasov P.E., Guiot J., Cheddadi R., Andreev A.A., Bezusko L.G., Blyakharchuk T.A., Dorofeyuk N.I., Filimonova L.V., Volkova V.S., Zernitskaya V.P. Climate in northern Eurasia 6000years ago reconstructed from pollen data. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 1999, 171:635-645.
76. Tauber H. Investigations of the mode of pollen transfer in forested areas. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 1967, 3:277-286.
77. Telford R.J., Andersson C., Birks H.J.B., Juggins S. Biases in the estimation of transfer function prediction errors. Paleoceanography 2004, 19. 10.1029/2004PA001072.
78. Thompson R.S., Andersson K.H., Bartlein P.J. Quantitative estimation of bioclimatic parameters from presence/absence vegetation data in North America by the modern Analog technique. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2008, 27:1234-1254.
79. Van der Kaars S., De Deckker P., Gingele F.X. A 100 000-year record of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature for northwestern Australia based on a pollen record obtained offshore. J. Quat. Sci. 2006, 21(8):879-889.
80. Vermoere M., Vanhecke L., Waelkens M., Smets E. A comparison between modern pollen spectra of moss cushions and Cundill pollen traps: implications for the interpretation of fossil pollen data from southwest Turkey. Grana 2000, 39:146-158.
81. Viau A.E., Gajewski K. Reconstructing millennial-scale, regional paleoclimates of boreal Canada during the Holocene. J. Clim. 2009, 22:316-330.
82. Viau A.E., Gajewski K., Sawada M., Fines P. Mean-continental July temperature variability in North America during the past 14,000years. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006, 111. 10.1029/2005JD006031.
83. Wang H., Prentice I.C., Ni J. Data-based modelling and environmental sensitivity of vegetation in China. Biogeosciences 2013, 10:5817-5830.
84. Wang Y., Herzschuh U., Shumilovskikh L.S., Mischke S., Birks H.J.B., Wischnewski J., Böhner J., Schlütz F., Lehmkuhl F., Diekmann B., Wünnemann B., Zhang C. Quantitative reconstruction of precipitation changes on the NE tibetan plateau since the last glacial maximum-extending the concept of pollen source area to pollen-based climate reconstructions from large lakes. Clim. Past 2014, 10:21-39. 10.5194/cp-10-21-2014.
85. Webb T. The reconstruction of climatic sequences from botanical data. J. Interdiscip. Hist. 1980, 10(4):749-772.
86. Webb T., Bryson R.A. Late- and postglacial climatic change in the Northern Midwest, USA: quantitative estimates derived from fossil pollen spectra by multivariate statistical analysis. Quat. Res. 1972, 2:70-115.
87. Whitmore J., Gajewski K., Sawada M., Williams J.W., Shuman B., Bartlein P.J., Minckley T., Viau A.E., Webb T., Shafer S., Anderson P., Brubaker L. Modern pollen data from North America and Greenland for multi-scale paleoenvironmental applications. Quat. Sci. Rev. 2005, 24:1828-1848.
88. Williams J.W., Webb T., Richard P.H., Newby P. Late Quaternary biomes of Canada and the eastern United States. J. Biogeogr. 2000, 27(3):585-607.
89. Williams N.J., Harle K.J., Gale S.J., Heijnis H. The vegetation history of the last glacial-interglacial cycle in eastern New South Wales, Australia. J. Quat. Sci. 2006, 21:735-750.
90. Wilmshurst J.M., McGlone M.S., Leathwick J.R., Newnham R.M. A pre-deforestation pollen-climate calibration model for New Zealand and quantitative temperature reconstructions for the past 18 000years BP. J. Quat. Sci. 2007, 22(5):535-547.
91. Wilmshurst J.M., McGlone M.S. Origin of pollen and spores in surface lake sediments: comparison of modern palynomorph assemblages in moss cushions, surface soils and surface lake sediments. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 2005, 136:1-15.
92. Wu H., Guiot J., Brewer S., Guo Z. Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modelling. Clim. Dyn. 2007, 29:211-229.
93. Wyrwoll K.-H., Miller G.H. Initiation of the Australian summer monsoon 14,000years ago. Quat. Int. 2001, 83-85:119-128.
94. Xu T., Hutchinson M.F. ANUCLIM Version 6.1 2011, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra.