Expanded response-surfaces: a new method to reconstruct paleoclimates from fossil pollen assemblages that lack modern analogues

Quaternary Science Reviews

Volumn 28, Issue 27-28, 2009, Pages 3315-3332

  Gonzales, L M ^a   Williams, J W ^a   Grimm, E C ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b RESEARCH AND COLLECTIONS CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION; DRAINED SOILS; FOSSIL POLLENS; GLACIAL CLIMATE; HIGH MOISTURE; HIGH RESOLUTION; HOLOCENE CLIMATE; ILLINOIS; INSOLATION SEASONALITY; OBSERVATIONAL DATA; PALEOCLIMATES; PICEA GLAUCA; PICEA MARIANA; PLANT SPECIES; POLLEN ASSEMBLAGE; QUERCUS; SEASONALITY; SOIL DRAINAGE; SUMMER PRECIPITATION; SUMMER TEMPERATURE; TEMPORAL CHANGE; TRUNCATED DISTRIBUTIONS; UNIMODAL DISTRIBUTION; WINTER PRECIPITATION;

LAKES; PLANT EXPANSION; SOILS;

GLACIAL GEOLOGY;

DECIDUOUS TREE; FOSSIL; MOISTURE CONTENT; PALEOCLIMATE; PALEOTEMPERATURE; PALYNOLOGY; RECONSTRUCTION; SOIL DRAINAGE; VEGETATION HISTORY;

NORTH AMERICA;

ABIES; FRAXINUS; FRAXINUS NIGRA; LARIX; PICEA GLAUCA; PICEA MARIANA; QUERCUS;

EID: 70450273259     PISSN: 02773791     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.005     Document Type: Article

References (107)

1. Ali A.A., Asselin H., Larouche A., Bergeron Y., Carcaillet C., and Richard P.J.H. Changes in fire regime explain the Holocene rise and fall of Abies balsamea in the coniferous forests of western Quebec, Canada. Holocene 18 (2008) 693-703
2. Andersen K.K., Svensson A., Johnsen S.J., Rasmussen S.O., Bigler M., Röthlisberger R., Ruth U., Siggard-Andersen M.-L., Steffensen J.P., Dahl-Jensen D., Vinther B.M., and Clausen H.B. The Greenland ice core chronology 2005, 15-42 ka. Part 1: constructing the timescale. Quaternary Science Reviews 25 (2006) 3246-3257
3. Araujo M.B., and Guisan A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33 (2006) 1677-1688
4. Ashworth A.C. A late Wisconsinan coleopterous assemblage from southern Ontario and its environmental significance. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 14 (1977) 1625-1634
5. Austin M.P. On non-linear species responses models in ordination. Vegetatio 33 (1976) 33-41
6. Austin M.P. Models for the analysis of species' response to environmental gradients. Vegetatio 69 (1987) 35-45
7. Austin M.P., and Gaywood M.J. Current problems of environmental gradients and species response curves in relation to continuum theory. Journal of Vegetation Science 5 (1994) 473-482
8. Austin M.P., Nicholls A.O., Doherty M.D., and Meyers J.A. Determining species response functions to an environmental gradient by means of a function. Journal of Vegetation Science 5 (1994) 215-228
9. Austin M.P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling 157 (2002) 101-118
10. Austin M.P. Species distribution models and ecological theory: a critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecological Modelling 200 (2007) 1-19
11. Barber C.B., Dobkin D.P., and Huhdanpaa H.T. The Quickhull algorithm for convex hulls. ACM Transactions on Mathematical Software 22 (1996) 469-483
12. Bartlein P.J., Prentice I.C., and Webb T.I. Climatic response-surfaces based on pollen from some eastern North America taxa. Journal of Biogeography 13 (1986) 35-57
13. Bartlein P.J., Anderson K.H., Anderson P.M., Edwards M.E., Mock C.J., Thompson R.S., Webb R.S., Webb III T., and Whitlock C. Paleoclimate simulations for North America over the past 21,000 years: features of the simulated climate and comparisons with paleoenvironmental data. Quaternary Science Reviews 17 (1998) 549-585
14. Berglund B.E. The deglaciation of southern Sweden 13 500-10 000 B.P. Boreas 8 (1979) 89-117
15. Bio A., Alkemade R., and Barendregt A. Determining alternative models for vegetation response analysis: a non-parametric approach. Journal of Vegetation Science 9 (1998) 5-16
16. Björck S., Walker M.J.C., Cwynar L.C., Johnsen S., Knudsen K.-L., Lowe J.J., Wohlfarth B., and Members I. An event stratigraphy for the last termination in the North Atlantic region based on the Greenland ice-core record: a proposal by the INTIMATE group. Journal of Quaternary Science 13 (1998) 283-292
17. Bonan G.B., and Sirois L. Air temperature, tree growth, and the northern and southern range limits to Picea mariana. Journal of Vegetation Science 3 (1992) 495-506
18. Bromwich D.H., Toracinta E.R., Wei H., Oglesby R.J., Fastook J.L., and Hughes T.J. LGM summer climate on the southern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet: wet or dry?. Journal of Climate 18 (2005) 3317-3338
19. Burns R.M., and Honkala B.H. Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers; 2. Hardwoods. Agriculture Handbook 654 vol. 2 (1990), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, D.C 877 pp.
20. Bryson R.A., and Wendland W.M. Tentative climatic patterns for some late-glacial and post-glacial episodes in Central North America. In: Mayer-Oakes W.J. (Ed). Life, Land and Water: Proceedings of the 1966 Conference on Environmental Studies of the Glacial Lake Agassiz Region (1967), University of Manitoba Press, Winnipeg 271-298
21. COHMAP Members. Climatic changes of the last 18 000 years: observations and model simulations. Science 24 (1988) 1043-1052
22. Colman S.M., Clark J.A., Clayton L., Hansel A.K., and Larsen C.E. Deglaciation, lake levels, and meltwater discharge in the Lake Michigan basin. Quaternary Science Reviews 13 (1994) 879-890
23. Curry B.B., Grimm E.C., Slate J.E., Hansen B.C.S., and Konen M.E. The Late-glacial and Early Holocene Geology, Paleoecology, and Paleohydrology of the Brewster Creek Site, a Proposed Wetland Restoration Site, Pratt's Wayne Woods Forest Preserve, and James "Pate" Philip State Park, Bartlett, Illinois. Circular 571 (2007), Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign, IL, USA
24. Cushing E.J. Late-Wisconsin pollen stratigraphy in the glacial sequence in Minnesota. In: Cushing E.J., and Wright Jr. H.E. (Eds). Quaternary Paleoecology (1967), Yale University Press, New Haven 59-88
25. Davis M.B. Climatic changes in southern Connecticut recorded by pollen deposition at Rogers Lake. Ecology 50 (1969) 409-422
26. Delcourt H.R., and Delcourt P.A. Postglacial rise and decline of Ostrya virginiana (Mill) K Koch and Carpinus caroliniana Walt in eastern North-America: predictable responses of forest species to cyclic changes in seasonality of climates. Journal of Biogeography 21 (1994) 137-150
27. Delcourt H.R., Delcourt P.A., and Webb III T. Dynamic plant ecology: the spectrum of vegetational change in space and time. Quaternary Science Reviews 1 (1983) 153-175
28. Dyke A.S., Moore A., and Robertson L. Deglaciation of North America (2003), Geological Survey of Canada Open File 1574 [CD-ROM]
29. Ejrnaes R. Can we trust gradients extracted by detrended correspondence analysis?. Journal of Vegetation Science 11 (2000) 565-572
30. 2, and orbital insolation on late Quaternary climates: sensitivity experiments with a general circulation model. Quaternary Science Reviews 17 (1998) 507-534
31. Gauch Jr. H.G., and Whittaker R.H. Coenocline simulation. Ecology 53 (1972) 446-451
32. Gonzales L.M., and Grimm E.C. Synchronization of late-glacial vegetation changes at Crystal Lake, Illinois, USA with the North Atlantic Event Stratigraphy. Quaternary Research 72 (2009) 234-245
33. Gonzales L.M., Grimm E.C., Williams J.W., and Nordheim E.V. A modern plant-climate research dataset for modelling eastern North American plant taxa. Grana 48 (2009) 1-18
34. Grimm E.C., and Maher L.J. AMS radiocarbon dating documents climate events in the upper Midwest coeval with the Bolling/Allerod and Younger Dryas episodes. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 34 6 (2002) 352
35. Grimm E.C., and Jacobson G.L. Late Quaternary vegetation history of the eastern United States. In: Gillespie A.R., Porter S.C., and Atwater B.F. (Eds). The Quaternary Period in the United States (2004), Elsevier, Boston 381-402
36. Grimm E.C., Maher Jr. L.J., and Nelson D.M. The magnitude of error in conventional bulk-sediment radiocarbon dates from central North America. Quaternary Research 72 (2009) 301-308
37. Grimm, E.C. (Ed.), 1999. North American Pollen Database and Global Pollen Database. Data archived at IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder, CO, USA (www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo).
38. 2 conditions: application to glacial climate in Mediterranean region. Ecological Modelling 127 (2000) 119-140
39. Hansel A.K., Mickelson D.M., Schneider A.F., and Larsen C.E. Late Wisconsinan and Holocene history of the Lake Michigan basin. pp. 39-53. In: Karrow P.F., and Calkin P.E. (Eds). Quaternary Evolution of the Great Lakes. Geological Association of Canada Special Paper 30 (1985) St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada
40. Harrison S.P. Lake levels and climatic change in eastern North America. Climate Dynamics 3 (1989) 157-167
41. Haslett J., Whiley M., Bhattacharya, Salter-Toushend M., Wilson S.P., Allen J.R.M., Huntley B., and Mitchell F.J.G. Bayesian paleoclimate reconstruction. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 169 (2006) 395-438
42. Jackson S.T., and Overpeck J.T. Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary. Paleobiology 26 (2000) 194-220
43. Jackson S.T., and Williams J.W. Modern analogues in Quaternary Paleoecology: here today, gone yesterday, gone tomorrow?. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 32 (2004) 495-537
44. Jacobson Jr. G.L., and Bradshaw R.H.W. The selection of sites for paleovegetational studies. Quaternary Research 16 (1981) 80-96
45. Johnson K.W., and Altman N.S. Canonical correspondence analysis as an approximation to Gaussian ordination. Environmetrics 10 (1999) 39-52
46. 2 on tropical African montane vegetation. Science 276 (1997) 786-788
47. King J.E. Late Quaternary vegetation history of illinois. Ecological Monographs 51 (1981) 43-62
48. Kutzbach J., Gallimore R., Harrison S., Behling P., Selin R., and Laarif F. Climate and biome simulations for the past 21,000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews 17 (1998) 473-506
49. Larson G., and Schaetzl R. Origin and evolution of the Great Lakes. Journal of Great Lakes Research 27 (2001) 518-546
50. Levesque A.J., Cwynar L.C., and Walker I.R. Exceptionally steep north-south gradients in lake temperatures during the last deglaciation. Nature 385 (1997) 423-426
51. Lewis C.F.M., and Anderson T.W. Oscillations of levels and cool phases of the Laurentian Great Lakes caused by inflows from glacial Lakes Agassiz and Barlow-Ojibway. Journal of Paleolimnology 2 (1989) 99-146
52. Lewis C.F.M., and Anderson T.W. Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in Lake Erie, evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin. Climate Dynamics 6 (1992) 241-250
53. Lewis C.F.M., Moore Jr. T.C.M., Rea D.K., Dettman D.L., Smith A.M., and Mayer L.A. Lakes of the Huron Basin: their record of runoff from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews 13 (1994) 891-922
54. McKenzie D., Peterson D.W., Peterson D.L., and Thornton P.E. Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington State, USA. Journal of Biogeography 30 (2003) 1093-1108
55. Miller R.F., and Morgan A.V. A postglacial Coleopterous assemblage from Lockport Gulf, New York. Quaternary Research 17 (1982) 258-274
56. Minchin P.R. Simulation of multidimensional community patterns: towards a comprehensive model. Vegetatio 71 (1987) 145-156
57. Minchin P.R. Montane vegetation of the Mt. Field massif, Tasmania: a test of some hypotheses about properties of community patterns. Vegetatio 83 (1989) 97-110
58. Morgan A.V. Late Wisconsin and early Holocene paleoenvironments of east-central North America based on assemblages of fossil Coleoptera. In: Ruddiman W.F., and Wright Jr. H.E. (Eds). North America and Adjacent Oceans During the Last Deglaciation. The Geology of North America K-3 (1987), Geological Society of America, Boulder, Colorado 353-370
59. Morgan A.V., Miller R.F., and Morgan A. Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of southwestern Ontario between 11 000 and 10 000 yr BP using fossil insects as indicators. Third North American Paleontological Convention, Proceedings 2 (1982) 381-386
60. Mueller-Dombois D., and Ellenberg H. Aims and Methods of Vegetation Ecology (1974), Wiley, New York p. 547
61. New M., Lister D., Hulme M., and Makin I. A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research 21 (2002) 1-25
62. Oksanen J., and Minchin P.R. Continuum theory revisited: what shape are species responses along ecological gradients?. Ecological Modelling 157 (2002) 119-129
63. Overpeck J.T., Webb T., and Prentice I.C. Quantitative interpretation of fossil pollen spectra: dissimilarity coefficients and the method of modern analogues. Quaternary Research 23 (1985) 87-108
64. Overpeck J.T., Bartlein P.J., and Webb III T. Potential magnitude of future vegetation change in eastern North America: comparisons with the past. Science 254 (1991) 692-695
65. Overpeck J.T., Webb R.S., and Webb III T. Mapping eastern North America vegetation changes over the past 18,000 years: no analogues and the future. Geology 20 (1992) 1071-1074
66. Peyron O., Guiot J., Cheddadi R., Tarasov P., Reille M., De Beaulieu J.L., Bottema S., and Andrieu V. Climatic reconstruction in Europe for 18 000 year B.P. from pollen data. Quaternary Research 49 (1998) 183-196
67. Prentice I.C. Multidimensional scaling as a research tool in Quaternary Palynology: a review of theory and methods. Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 31 (1980) 71-104
68. Prentice I.C., Bartlein P.J., and Webb III T. Vegetation and climate change in eastern North America since the last glacial maximum. Ecology 72 (1991) 2038-2056
69. Prentice I.C., Cramer W., Harrison S.P., Leemans R., Monserud R.A., and Solomon R.A. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography 19 (1992) 117-134
70. Rasmussen S.O., Andersen K.K., Svensson A.M., Steffensen J.P., Vinther B.M., Clausen H.B., Siggard-Andersen M.-L., Johnsen S.J., Larsen L.B., Dahl-Jensen D., Bigler M., Röthlisberger R., Fischer H., Goto-Azuma K., Hansson M.E., and Ruth U. A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination. Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006) D06102 10.1029/2005JD006079
71. Rydgren K., Okland R.H., and Okland T. Species response curves along environmental gradients. A case study from SE Norwegian swamp forests. Journal of Vegetation Science 14 (2003) 869-880
72. Sakai A., and Weiser C.J. Freezing resistance of trees in North America with reference to tree regions. Ecology 54 (1973) 118-126
73. Sawada M., Viau A.E., Vettoretti G., Peltier W.R., and Gajewski K. Comparison of North-American pollen-based temperature and global lake-status with CCCma AGCM2 output at 6 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (2004) 225-244
74. Schweger C.E. Pollen analysis of Iola Bog and paleoecology of the two creeks forest bed, Wisconsin. Ecology 50 (1969) 859-868
75. Shane L., and Anderson K. Intensity, gradients and reversals in late-glacial environmental change in east-central North America. Quaternary Science Reviews 12 (1993) 307-320
76. Shuman B.N., Webb III T., Bartlein P.J., and Williams J.W. The anatomy of a climatic oscillation: vegetation change in eastern North America during the Younger Dryas chronozone. Quaternary Science Reviews 21 (2002) 1777-1791
77. Sugita S. Pollen representation of vegetation in Quaternary sediments: theory and method in patchy vegetation. Journal of Ecology 82 (1994) 881-897
78. ter Braak C.J.F. Correspondence analysis of incidence and abundance data: properties in terms of a unimodal response model. Biometrics 41 (1985) 859-873
79. Theis, L.J., 2006. Fluvial Response to Environmental Change, Lemonweir River, Central Wisconsin. Ph.D. thesis, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
80. Thompson R.S., Anderson K.H., and Bartlein P.J. Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America-Hardwoods (1999), US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey, Denver 423 pp.
81. Thompson R.S., Anderson K.H., and Bartlein P.J. Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America-Introduction and Conifers (1999), US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey, Denver 269 pp.
82. Vetaas O.R. Comparing species temperature response curves: population density versus second-hand data. Journal of Vegetation Science 11 (2000) 659-666
83. Webb R.S., Anderson K.H., and Webb III T. Pollen response-surface estimates of late Quaternary changes in the moisture balance of the northeastern United States. Quaternary Research 40 (1993) 213-227
84. Webb III T., Anderson K.H., Bartlein P.J., and Webb R.S. Late Quaternary climate change in eastern North America: a comparison of pollen-derived estimates with climate model results. Quaternary Science Reviews 17 (1998) 587-606
85. Webb III T., Cushing E.J., and Wright Jr. H.E. Holocene changes in the vegetation of the Midwest. pp. 142-165. In: Wright Jr. H.E. (Ed). The Holocene. Late-Quaternary Environments of the United States 2 (1983), University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, USA
86. Webb III T., Bartlein P.J., Harrison S.P., and Anderson K.H. Vegetation, lake levels, and climate in eastern North America for the past 18,000 years. pp. 415-467. In: Wright Jr. H.E., Kutzbach J.E., Webb III T., Ruddiman W.F., Street-Perrott F.A., and Bartlein P.J. (Eds). Global Climates Since the Last Glacial Maximum (1993), University of Minnesota
87. Webb III T., Bartlein P.J., and Kutzbach J.E. Climatic change in eastern North America during the past 18,000 years: comparisons of pollen data with model results in North America and adjacent oceans during the last deglaciation. In: Ruddiman W.F., and Wright H.E.J. (Eds). The Geology of North America vol. K-3 (1987), The Geological Society of America, Boulder, CO 1423-1465
88. Whitmore J., Gajewski K., Sawada M., Williams J.W., Shuman B., Bartlein P.J., Minckley T., Viau A.E., Webb III T., Anderson P.M., and Brubaker L.B. North American and Greenland modern pollen data for multi-scale paleoecological and paleoclimatic applications. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1828-1848
89. Whittaker R.H. Vegetation on Great Smoky Mountains. Ecological Monographs 26 (1956) 1-80
90. Whittaker R.H. Dominance and diversity in land plant communities. Science 147 (1965) 250-260
91. Whittaker R.H. Gradient analysis of vegetation. Biological Reviews 42 (1967) 207-264
92. Whittaker R.H. Direct gradient analysis. pp. 7-50. In: Whittaker R.H. (Ed). Ordination of Plant Communities (1978), Dr. W. Junk Bv Publishers, The Hague, The Netherlands
93. Whittaker R.H., and Niering W.A. Vegetation of the Santa Catalina Mountains, Arizona: a gradient analysis of the south slope. Ecology 46 (1965) 429-452
94. Williams J.W., and Shuman B. Obtaining accurate and precise environmental reconstructions from the modern analogue technique and North American surface pollen dataset. Quaternary Science Reviews 27 (2008) 669-687
95. Williams J.W., and Jackson S.T. Novel climates, no-analogue plant communities, and ecological surprises: past and future. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 5 (2007) 475-482
96. Williams J.W., Shuman B., Bartlein P.J., Whitmore J., Gajewski K., Sawada M., Minckley T., Shafer S., Viau A.E., Webb III T., Anderson P., Brubaker L., Whitlock C., and Davis O.K. An Atlas of Pollen-Vegetation-Climate Relationships for the United States and Canada. Contribution Series 43 (2006), American Association of Stratigraphic Palynologists, Dallas, Texas, USA
97. Williams J.W., Shuman B.N., Webb III T., Bartlein P.J., and Leduc P. Quaternary vegetation dynamics in North America: scaling from taxa to biomes. Ecological Monographs 74 (2004) 309-334
98. Williams J.W., Gonzales L.M., and Kaplan J.O. Leaf area index for northern and eastern North America at the Last Glacial Maximum: a data-model comparison. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17 (2008) 122-134
99. Williams J.W. Needleleaved and broadleaved tree cover distributions in North America since the Last Glacial Maximum. Global and Planetary Change 35 (2003) 1-23
100. Williams J., Shuman B., and Webb T. Dissimilarity analyses of late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation and climate in eastern North America. Ecology 82 (2001) 3346-3362
101. Wilson J.B., Agnew A.D.Q., and Sykes M.T. Ecology or mythology? Are Whittaker's "gradient analysis" curves reliable evidence of continuity in vegetation?. Preslia, Praha 76 (2004) 245-253
102. Wright H.E. Aspects of the early postglacial forest succession in the Great Lakes region. Ecology 45 (1964) 439-448
103. Wu H., Guiot J., Brewer S., and Guo Z. Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene: reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modeling. Climate Dynamics 29 (2007) 211-229
104. Wu H., Guiot J., Brewer S., Guo Z., and Peng C. Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science 104 (2007) 9720-9725
105. Yee T.W. A new technique for maximum likelihood canonical Gaussian ordination. Ecological Monographs 74 (2004) 685-701
106. Yu Z., and Wright H.E. Response of interior North America to abrupt climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Earth-Science Reviews 52 (2001) 333-369
107. Zhu M., Hastie T.J., and Walther G. Constrained ordination analysis with flexible response functions. Ecological Modelling 187 (2005) 524-536