Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate future risk of blindness and lower limb amputation in patients with diabetes: Cohort study

BMJ (Online)

Volumn 351, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Hippisley Cox, Julia ^a   Coupland, Carol ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; BLINDNESS; CLINICAL DECISION MAKING; COHORT ANALYSIS; CONTROLLED STUDY; DIABETES MELLITUS; DISEASE ASSESSMENT; FEMALE; HIGH RISK PATIENT; HUMAN; LEG AMPUTATION; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROCESS DEVELOPMENT; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK MANAGEMENT; UNITED KINGDOM; VALIDATION STUDY; AGED; ALGORITHM; AMPUTATION; COMPLICATION; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 1; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; ENGLAND; LOWER LIMB; MIDDLE AGED; PATHOPHYSIOLOGY; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; SURGERY; VERY ELDERLY;

ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; ALGORITHMS; AMPUTATION; BLINDNESS; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 1; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HUMANS; LOWER EXTREMITY; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODELS; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84951729613     PISSN: 09598146     EISSN: 17561833     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h5441     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Stratton IM, Adler AI, Neil HA, et al. Association of glycaemia with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 35): prospective observational study. BMJ 2000;321:405-12.
2. Diabetes Control and Complications Trial Research Group. The effect of intensive treatment of diabetes on the development and progression of long-term complications in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. N Engl J Med 1993;329:977-86.
3. Health and Social Care Information Centre. National Diabetes Audit 2012-2013. Report 2: complications and mortality. HSCIC, 2014:37.
4. DCCT/EDIC Research Group, Aiello LP, Sun W, et al. Intensive diabetes therapy and ocular surgery in type 1 diabetes. N Engl J Med 2015;372:1722-33.
5. UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Group. Intensive bloodglucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 33). Lancet 1998;352:837-53.
6. Adler AI, Stratton IM, Neil HA, et al. Association of systolic blood pressure with macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes (UKPDS 36): prospective observational study. BMJ 2000;321:412-9.
7. National Clinical Guideline Centre. Lipid modification: cardiovascular risk assessment and the modification of blood lipids for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. National Clinical Guideline Centre, 2014:286.
8. Goff DC, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation 2014;129 (25 suppl 2):S49-73.
9. Health and Social Care Information Centre. Quality and outcomes framework. 2015. www.ic.nhs.uk/services/qof.
10. Meltzer D, Egleston B. How patients with diabetes perceive their risk for major complications. Eff Clin Pract 2000;3:7-15.
11. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Vinogradova Y, et al. Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2. BMJ 2008;336:1475-82.
12. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Brindle P. Derivation and validation of QStroke score for predicting risk of ischaemic stroke in primary care and comparison with other risk scores: a prospective open cohort study. BMJ 2013;346:f2573.
13. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C. Predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease in men and women in England and Wales: prospective derivation and external validation of the QKidney (R) Scores. BMC Fam Pract 2010;11:49.
14. Clarke P, Gray A, Holman R. Estimating utility values for health states of type 2 diabetic patients using the EQ-5D (UKPDS 62). Med Decis Making 2002;22:340-9.
15. Wikipedia. Read code. 2015. en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Read-code.
16. Hippisley-Cox J, Coupland C, Robson J, et al. Predicting risk of type 2 diabetes in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QDScore. BMJ 2009;338:b880.
17. Hippisley-Cox J, Pringle M. Prevalence, care and outcomes for patients with diet controlled diabetes in general practice: cross sectional survey. Lancet 2004;364:423-8.
18. Health and Social Care Information Centre. OPCS-4 classification. systems.hscic.gov. uk/data/clinicalcoding/codingstandards/opcs4/.
19. Resnick HE, Valsania P, Phillips CL. Diabetes mellitus and nontraumatic lower extremity amputation in black and white Americans: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, 1971-1992. Arch Intern Med 1999;159:2470-5.
20. Stratton IM, Kohner EM, Aldington SJ, et al. UKPDS 50: risk factors for incidence and progression of retinopathy in type II diabetes over 6 years from diagnosis. Diabetologia 2001;44:156-63.
21. Leggetter S, Chaturvedi N, Fuller JH, et al. Ethnicity and risk of diabetes-related lower extremity amputation: a population-based, case-control study of African Caribbeans and Europeans in the United Kingdom. Arch Intern Med 2002;162:73-8.
22. Moss SE, Klein R, Klein BE. The 14-year incidence of lower-extremity amputations in a diabetic population: the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy. Diabetes Care 1999;22:951-9.
23. Klein R. Hyperglycemia and microvascular and macrovascular disease in diabetes. Diabetes Care 1995;18:258-68.
24. Zhao W, Katzmarzyk PT, Horswell R, et al. HbA (1c) and lower-extremity amputation risk in low-income patients with diabetes. Diabetes Care 2013;36:3591-8.
25. Barth JH, Marshall SM, Watson ID. Consensus meeting on reporting glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and estimated average glucose (eAG) in the UK: report to the National Director for Diabetes, Department of Health. Diabet Med 2008;25:381-2.
26. 1c. 2010. dtb. bmj.com/site/about/HBA1C-chart-Feb-10.pdf.
27. Royston P, Ambler G, Sauerbrei W. The use of fractional polynomials to model continuous risk variables in epidemiology. Int J Epidemiol 1999;28:964-74.
28. Steyerberg EW, Van Veen M. Imputation is beneficial for handling missing data in predictive models. J Epidemiol Community Health 2007;60:979.
29. Moons KG, Donders RA, Stijnen T, et al. Using the outcome for imputation of missing predictor values was preferred. J Epidemiol Community Health 2006;59:1092.
30. Schafer J, Graham J. Missing data: our view of the state of the art. Psychol Methods 2002;7:147-77.
31. White IR, Royston P, Wood AM. Multiple imputation using chained equations: issues and guidance for practice. Stat Med 2011;30:377-99.
32. Rubin DB. Multiple imputation for non-response in surveys. John Wiley, 1987.
33. Hosmer D, Lemeshow S, May S. Applied survival analysis: regression modelling of time to event data. Wiley, 2007.
34. Royston P. Explained variation for survival models. Stata J 2006;6:1-14.
35. Royston P, Sauerbrei W. A new measure of prognostic separation in survival data. Stat Med 2004;23:723-48.
36. Harrell FE Jr, Califf RM, Pryor DB, et al. Evaluating the yield of medical tests. JAMA 1982;247:2543-6.
37. Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, et al. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. Ann Intern Med 2015;162:55-63.
38. Gavard JA, Lustman PJ, Clouse RE. Prevalence of depression in adults with diabetes: an epidemiological evaluation. Diabetes Care 1993;16:1167-78.
39. Bachmann MO, Nelson SJ. Impact of diabetic retinopathy screening on a British district population: case detection and blindness prevention in an evidence-based model. J Epidemiol Community Health 1998;52:45-52.
40. Patout CA Jr, Birke JA, Horswell R, et al. Effectiveness of a comprehensive diabetes lower-extremity amputation prevention program in a predominantly low-income African-American population. Diabetes Care 2000;23:1339-42.
41. Rith-Najarian S, Branchaud C, Beaulieu O, et al. Reducing lower-extremity amputations due to diabetes: Application of the staged diabetes management approach in a primary care setting. J Fam Pract 1998;47:127-32.
42. Mohamed Q, Gillies MC, Wong TY. Management of diabetic retinopathy: a systematic review. JAMA 2007;298:902-16.
43. Palmer AJ, Roze S, Valentine WJ, et al. The CORE diabetes model: projecting long-term clinical outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions in diabetes mellitus (types 1 and 2) to support clinical and reimbursement decision-making. Curr Med Res Opin 2004;20(suppl 1):S5-26.
44. Foos V, Palmer JL, Grant D, et al. PRM58 long-term validation of the IMS CORE diabetes model in type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Value Health 2012;15:A470.
45. Waugh N, Scotland G, McNamee P, et al. Screening for type 2 diabetes: literature review and economic modelling. Health Technol Assess 2007;11:iii-iv, ix-xi, 1-125.
46. Mueller E, Maxion-Bergemann S, Gultyaev D, et al. Development and validation of the Economic Assessment of Glycemic Control and Long-Term Effects of diabetes (EAGLE) model. Diabetes Technol Ther 2006;8:219-36.
47. Majeed A. Sources, uses, strengths and limitations of data collected in primary care in England. Health Stat Q 2004 Spring; (21):5-14.
48. Collins GS, Altman DG. Predicting the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in the United Kingdom: independent and external validation of an updated version of QRISK2. BMJ 2012;344:e4181.
49. Collins GS, Altman DG. External validation of the QDScore for predicting the 10-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Diabet Med 2011;28:599-607