Forecasting the incidence of dementia and dementia-related outpatient visits with google trends: Evidence from Taiwan

Journal of Medical Internet Research

Volumn 17, Issue 11, 2015, Pages

  Wang, Ho Wei ^a   Chen, Duan Rung ^a   Yu, Hsiao Wei ^a   Chen, Ya Mei ^a  

^a NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERSITY   (Taiwan)

Author keywords

Alzheimer's disease; Big data; Dementia; Early detection; Google Trends; Health seeking behaviors; Incidence; Internet search; Self diagnosis

Indexed keywords

DEMENTIA; FEMALE; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INTERNET; MALE; OUTPATIENT; TAIWAN; TRENDS; UTILIZATION;

DEMENTIA; FEMALE; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INTERNET; MALE; OUTPATIENTS; TAIWAN;

EID: 84948980822     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14388871     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2196/jmir.4516     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Alzheimer's Association. 2013 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures. Alzheimers Dement 2013 Mar;9(2):208-245 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2013.02.003] [Medline: 23507120]
2. Sabat SR. Dementia in developing countries: A tidal wave on the horizon. Lancet 2009 Nov 28;374(9704):1805-1806. [doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)62037-7] [Medline: 19944851]
3. Prince M, Bryce R, Albanese E, Wimo A, Ribeiro W, Ferri CP. The global prevalence of dementia: A systematic review and metaanalysis. Alzheimers Dement 2013 Jan;9(1):63-75.e2. [doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2012.11.007] [Medline: 23305823]
4. Wimo A, Prince M. World Alzheimer Report 2010: The Global Economic Impact of Dementia. London, UK: Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI); 2010 Sep 21. URL: http://www.alz.org/documents/national/world-alzheimer-report-2010. pdf [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2LlTtHI]
5. Prince M, Prina M, Guerchet M. World Alzheimer Report 2013: Journey of Caring. London, UK: Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI); 2013 Sep. URL: http://www.alz.co.uk/research/WorldAlzheimerReport2013.pdf [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2Lowozc]
6. Colombo F, Llena-Nozal A, Mercier J, Tjadens F. Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care. Paris, France: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Publishing; May 18, 2011.
7. Marim CM, Silva V, Taminato M, Barbosa DA. Effectiveness of educational programs on reducing the burden of caregivers of elderly individuals with dementia: A systematic review. Rev Lat Am Enfermagem 2013 Feb;21 Spec No:267-275 [FREE Full text] [Medline: 23459916]
8. Beinart N, Weinman J, Wade D, Brady R. Caregiver burden and psychoeducational interventions in Alzheimer's disease: A review. Dement Geriatr Cogn Dis Extra 2012 Jan;2(1):638-648 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1159/000345777] [Medline: 23341829]
9. Joling KJ, Smit F, van Marwijk HW, van der Horst HE, Scheltens P, Schulz R, et al. Identifying target groups for the prevention of depression among caregivers of dementia patients. Int Psychogeriatr 2012 Feb;24(2):298-306 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1017/S1041610211001633] [Medline: 21880175]
10. Donelan K, Hill CA, Hoffman C, Scoles K, Feldman PH, Levine C, et al. Challenged to care: Informal caregivers in a changing health system. Health Aff (Millwood) 2002 Aug;21(4):222-231 [FREE Full text] [Medline: 12117133]
11. Alzheimer's Association. What is dementia? URL: http://www.alz.org/what-is-dementia.asp [accessed 2015-11-15] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2M3Iok9]
12. Carrillo MC, Brashear HR, Logovinsky V, Ryan JM, Feldman HH, Siemers ER, et al. Can we prevent Alzheimer's disease? Secondary "prevention" trials in Alzheimer's disease. Alzheimers Dement 2013 Mar;9(2):123-131.e1. [doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2012.12.004] [Medline: 23411394]
13. Zhu CW, Leibman C, McLaughlin T, Scarmeas N, Albert M, Brandt J, et al. The effects of patient function and dependence on costs of care in Alzheimer's disease. J Am Geriatr Soc 2008 Aug;56(8):1497-1503 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2008.01798.x] [Medline: 18662215]
14. Saito E, Nakamoto BK, Mendez MF, Mehta B, McMurtray A. Cost effective community based dementia screening: A markov model simulation. Int J Alzheimers Dis 2014;2014:103138 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1155/2014/103138] [Medline: 24649392]
15. Prince M, Bryce R, Ferri C. World Alzheimer Report 2011: The Benefits of Early Diagnosis and Intervention. London, UK: Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI); 2011 Sep. URL: http://www.alz.co.uk/research/WorldAlzheimerReport2011. pdf [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2MBlODT]
16. Yu R, Chau PH, McGhee SM, Cheung WL, Chan KC, Cheung SH, et al. Trends in prevalence and mortality of dementia in elderly Hong Kong population: Projections, disease burden, and implications for long-term care. Int J Alzheimers Dis 2012;2012:406852 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1155/2012/406852] [Medline: 23097740]
17. Batsch NL, Mittelman MS. World Alzheimer Report 2012: Overcoming the Stigma of Dementia. London, UK: Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI); 2012 Sep. URL: http://www.alz.org/documents-custom/world-report-2012-final.pdf [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2M8ojhQ]
18. World Health Organization, Alzheimer's Disease International. Dementia: A Public Health Priority. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2012. URL: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/75263/1/9789241564458-eng.pdf?ua=1 [accessed 2015-11-15] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2Lz5Wru]
19. Zheluk A, Quinn C, Hercz D, Gillespie JA. Internet search patterns of human immunodeficiency virus and the digital divide in the Russian Federation: Infoveillance study. J Med Internet Res 2013;15(11):e256 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.2196/jmir.2936] [Medline: 24220250]
20. Ayers JW, Ribisl K, Brownstein JS. Using search query surveillance to monitor tax avoidance and smoking cessation following the United States' 2009 "SCHIP" cigarette tax increase. PLoS One 2011;6(3):e16777 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016777] [Medline: 21436883]
21. Reis B Y, Brownstein JS. Measuring the impact of health policies using Internet search patterns: The case of abortion. BMC Public Health 2010;10:514 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-514] [Medline: 20738850]
22. Fox S, Duggan M. Pew Research Center. Washington, DC: Pew Internet & American Life Project; 2013 Jan 15. Health online 2013 URL: http://www.pewinternet.org/2013/01/15/health-online-2013/ [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2MH4VqC]
23. Yang AC, Tsai S, Huang NE, Peng C. Association of Internet search trends with suicide death in Taipei City, Taiwan, 2004-2009. J Affect Disord 2011 Jul;132(1-2):179-184. [doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2011.01.019] [Medline: 21371755]
24. Google Trends. URL: https://www.google.com/trends/ [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2MVXdTH]
25. Eysenbach G. Infodemiology: Tracking flu-related searches on the Web for syndromic surveillance. AMIA Annu Symp Proc 2006:244-248 [FREE Full text] [Medline: 17238340]
26. Ginsberg J, Mohebbi MH, Patel RS, Brammer L, Smolinski MS, Brilliant L. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 2009 Feb 19;457(7232):1012-1014. [doi: 10.1038/nature07634] [Medline: 19020500]
27. Malik MT, Gumel A, Thompson LH, Strome T, Mahmud SM. "Google flu trends" and emergency department triage data predicted the 2009 pandemic H1N1 waves in Manitoba. Can J Public Health 2011 Aug;102(4):294-297. [Medline: 21913587]
28. Dugas AF, Hsieh Y, Levin SR, Pines JM, Mareiniss DP, Mohareb A, et al. Google Flu Trends: Correlation with emergency department influenza rates and crowding metrics. Clin Infect Dis 2012 Feb 15;54(4):463-469 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1093/cid/cir883] [Medline: 22230244]
29. Lazer D, Kennedy R, King G, Vespignani A. Big data. The parable of Google Flu: Traps in big data analysis. Science 2014 Mar 14;343(6176):1203-1205. [doi: 10.1126/science.1248506] [Medline: 24626916]
30. Cook S, Conrad C, Fowlkes AL, Mohebbi MH. Assessing Google flu trends performance in the United States during the 2009 influenza virus A (H1N1) pandemic. PLoS One 2011;6(8):e23610 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0023610] [Medline: 21886802]
31. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Weekly US influenza surveillance report URL: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ [accessed 2015-11-15] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2MaEOMW]
32. Carneiro HA, Mylonakis E. Google Trends: A Web-based tool for real-time surveillance of disease outbreaks. Clin Infect Dis 2009 Nov 15;49(10):1557-1564 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1086/630200] [Medline: 19845471]
33. Google Insights for Search. How is the data derived? URL: http://support.google.com/insights/bin/answer. py?hl=en&answer=92768 [accessed 2015-08-26] [WebCite Cache ID 68S22N1VM]
34. Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Madoff LC. Digital disease detection - Harnessing the Web for public health surveillance. N Engl J Med 2009 May 21;360(21):2153-2155, 2157 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1056/NEJMp0900702] [Medline: 19423867]
35. Jena AB, Karaca-Mandic P, Weaver L, Seabury SA. Predicting new diagnoses of HIV infection using Internet search engine data. Clin Infect Dis 2013 May;56(9):1352-1353 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1093/cid/cit022] [Medline: 23334812]
36. Frijters P, Johnston DW, Lordan G, Shields MA. Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and problem drinking as captured by Google searches in the US. Soc Sci Med 2013 May;84:61-68. [doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.01.028] [Medline: 23517705]
37. Nsoesie EO, Buckeridge DL, Brownstein JS. Guess who's not coming to dinner? Evaluating online restaurant reservations for disease surveillance. J Med Internet Res 2014;16(1):e22 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.2196/jmir.2998] [Medline: 24451921]
38. Eysenbach G. Infodemiology and infoveillance: Framework for an emerging set of public health informatics methods to analyze search, communication and publication behavior on the Internet. J Med Internet Res 2009;11(1):e11 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.2196/jmir.1157] [Medline: 19329408]
39. Bernardo TM, Rajic A, Young I, Robiadek K, Pham MT, Funk JA. Scoping review on search queries and social media for disease surveillance: A chronology of innovation. J Med Internet Res 2013 Jul;15(7):e147 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.2196/jmir.2740] [Medline: 23896182]
40. National Health Insurance Research Database. URL: http://nhird.nhri.org.tw/en/Data-Subsets.html [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2Mo3vSv]
41. Boslaugh S. Statistics in a Nutshell. 2nd edition. Sebastopol, CA: O'Reilly Media, Inc; 2012.
42. Cayce R, Goldman S, van Beest D, Davis J. Internet search trend analysis tools provide insight into skin disease healthcare utilization. J Dermatolog Clin Res 2013 Nov 2;1(1):1005.
43. Cho S, Sohn CH, Jo MW, Shin S, Lee JH, Ryoo SM, et al. Correlation between national influenza surveillance data and google trends in South Korea. PLoS One 2013;8(12):e81422 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081422] [Medline: 24339927]
44. Choi H. Predicting the present with Google Trends. Econ Rec 2012:2-9.
45. Pérès K, Helmer C, Amieva H, Matharan F, Carcaillon L, Jacqmin-Gadda H, et al. Gender differences in the prodromal signs of dementia: Memory complaint and IADL-restriction. A prospective population-based cohort. J Alzheimers Dis 2011;27(1):39-47. [doi: 10.3233/JAD-2011-110428] [Medline: 21725162]
46. The Ministry of Health and Welfare of Taiwan. 2012 National Health Insurance annual statistical report URL: http://www. mohw.gov.tw/cht/DOS/Statistic.aspx?f-list-no=312&fod-list-no=4716 [accessed 2015-11-16] [WebCite Cache ID 6d5VjZfLM]
47. Hall JR, Vo HT, Johnson LA, Barber RC, O'Bryant SE. The link between cognitive measures and ADLs and IADL functioning in mild alzheimer's: What has gender got to do with it? Int J Alzheimers Dis 2011;2011:276734 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.4061/2011/276734] [Medline: 21660245]
48. Taiwan Alzheimer Disease Association. Dementia prevalence in 2013, Taiwan URL: http://www.tada2002.org.tw/ tada-know-02.html [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2NvOLBy]
49. ClickForce. Internet and mobile market survey in 2015, Taiwan URL: http://www.clickforce.com.tw/news/view?id=317 [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2Nol6RY]
50. Hurd MD, Martorell P, Delavande A, Mullen KJ, Langa KM. Monetary costs of dementia in the United States. N Engl J Med 2013 Apr 4;368(14):1326-1334 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.1056/NEJMsa1204629] [Medline: 23550670]
51. Banerjee S, Wittenberg R. Clinical and cost effectiveness of services for early diagnosis and intervention in dementia. Int J Geriatr Psychiatry 2009 Jul;24(7):748-754. [doi: 10.1002/gps.2191] [Medline: 19206079]
52. Google. Googlebot URL: https://support.google.com/webmasters/answer/182072?hl=en [accessed 2015-11-14] [WebCite Cache ID 6d2MtxIt3]
53. Cook AR, Chen MI, Pin Lin RT. Internet search limitations and pandemic influenza, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis 2010 Oct;16(10):1647-1649 [FREE Full text] [doi: 10.3201/eid1610.100840] [Medline: 20875307]