College football, elections, and false-positive results in observational research

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 112, Issue 45, 2015, Pages 13800-13804

  Fowler, Anthony ^a   Pablo Montagnes, B ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO   (United States)

^b EMORY UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; COLLEGE; EFFECT SIZE; ELECTION; FALSE POSITIVE RESULT; FOOTBALL; HUMAN; OBSERVATIONAL STUDY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOCIOLOGY; DECISION MAKING; EMOTION; GOVERNMENT; POLITICS;

DECISION MAKING; EMOTIONS; GOVERNMENT; HUMANS; POLITICS;

EID: 84946780140     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1502615112     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Healy AJ, Malhotra N, Mo CH (2010) Irrelevant events affect voters' evaluations of government performance. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(29):12804-12809.
2. Cowen T, Grier K (October 24, 2012) Will Ohio State's football team decide who wins the White House? Slate, Politics, Who's Winning, Who's Losing, and Why. Available at www.slate.com/articles/news-And-politics/politics/2012/10/how-The-presidential-race-between-barack-obama-And-mitt-romney-could-be.html.
3. Bechtel MM, Hainmueller J (2011) How lasting is voter gratitude? An analysis of the short-And long-Term electoral returns to beneficial policy. Am J Pol Sci 55(4):851-867.
4. Healy A, Malhotra N (2009) Myopic voters and natural disaster policy. Am Polit Sci Rev 103(3):387-406.
5. Healy A, Malhotra N (2010) Random events, economic losses, and retrospective voting: Implications for democratic competence. Quart J Polit Sci 5(2):193-208.
6. Ashworth S, Bueno de Mesquita E, Friedenberg A (2015) Learning About Voter Rationality. Working paper (University of Chicago, Chicago). Available at home.uchicago.edu/sashwort/shocks.pdf.
7. Healy A, Malhotra N (2013) Retrospective voting reconsidered. Annu Rev Polit Sci (Palo Alto) 16:285-306.
8. Lenz GS (2012) Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians' Policies and Performance (Univ of Chicago Press, Chicago).
9. Angrist JD, Pischke J (2010) The credibility revolution in empirical economics: How better research design is taking the con out of econometrics. J Econ Perspect 24(2):3-30.
10. Ioannidis JPA (2005) Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2(8):e124.
11. Simmons JP, Nelson LD, Simonsohn U (2011) False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant. Psychol Sci 22(11):1359-1366.
12. Simonsohn U, Nelson LD, Simmons JP (2014) P-curve: A key to the file-drawer. J Exp Psychol Gen 143(2):534-547.
13. Ansolabehere S, Snyder JM (2002) The incumbency advantage in U.S. elections: An analysis of state and federal offices, 1942-2000. Election Law J 1(3):315-338.
14. Gerber AS, Gimpel JG, Green DP, Shaw DR (2011) How large and long-lasting are the persuasive effects of televised campaign ads? Results from a randomized field experiment. Am Polit Sci Rev 105(1):135-150.
15. Hibbs DA (2012) Obama's reelection prospects under "bread and peace" voting in the 2012 US presidential election. PS Polit Sci Polit 45(4):635-639.
16. Giratikanon T, Katz J, Leonhardt D, Quealy K, Tracy M (October 3, 2014) NCAA fan map: How the country roots for college football. The New York Times, The Upshot. Available at www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/03/upshot/ncaa-football-fan-map. html?-r=0.
17. Bartels LM (2008) Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton).
18. Healy A, Lenz GS (2014) Substituting the end for the whole: Why voters respond primarily to the election-year economy. Am J Pol Sci 58(1):31-47.
19. Huber GA, Hill SJ, Lenz GS (2012) Sources of bias in retrospective decision-making: Experimental evidence on voters' limitations in controlling incumbents. Am Polit Sci Rev 106(4):720-741.
20. Efron B (2013) Large-Scale Inference: Empirical Bayes Methods for Estimation, Testing, and Prediction (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom).
21. Gerber A, Malhotra N (2008) Do statistical reporting standards affect what is published? Publication bias in two leading political science journals. Quart J Polit Sci 3(3):313-326.
22. Irwin N, Quely K (November 8, 2014) The places in America where college football means the most. The New York Times, The Upshot. Available at www.nytimes.com/2014/11/08/upshot/the-places-in-America-where-college-football-means-The-most.html.