메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 21, Issue 12, 2015, Pages 4464-4480

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Author keywords

Parthenium hysterophorus; AUC; Boosted regression trees; Generalized additive models; Generalized linear models; Invasive species; Model evaluation; Nonequilibrium distribution; Random forests; Species distribution modeling

Indexed keywords

ANGIOSPERM; INVASIVE SPECIES; NUMERICAL MODEL; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION;

EID: 84946762531     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13038     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (241)

References (66)
  • 2
    • 0038606194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Community assembly, niche conservatism, and adaptive evolution in changing environments
    • Ackerly DD (2003) Community assembly, niche conservatism, and adaptive evolution in changing environments. International Journal of Plant Science, 164, S165-S184.
    • (2003) International Journal of Plant Science , vol.164 , pp. S165-S184
    • Ackerly, D.D.1
  • 3
    • 84901695079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biology, ecology and management of the invasive parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.)
    • Adkins S, Shabbir A (2014) Biology, ecology and management of the invasive parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). Pest Management Science, 70, 1023-1029.
    • (2014) Pest Management Science , vol.70 , pp. 1023-1029
    • Adkins, S.1    Shabbir, A.2
  • 4
    • 33750525529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)
    • Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
    • (2006) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.43 , pp. 1223-1232
    • Allouche, O.1    Tsoar, A.2    Kadmon, R.3
  • 5
    • 33748529602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling
    • Araújo MB, Guisan A (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1677-1688.
    • (2006) Journal of Biogeography , vol.33 , pp. 1677-1688
    • Araújo, M.B.1    Guisan, A.2
  • 6
    • 84864255928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling
    • Araújo MB, Peterson AT (2012) Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. Ecology, 93, 1527-1539.
    • (2012) Ecology , vol.93 , pp. 1527-1539
    • Araújo, M.B.1    Peterson, A.T.2
  • 8
    • 0002494520 scopus 로고
    • Analysis of the spread of tiger pear and parthenium weed in Australia
    • Auld BA, Hosking J, McFadyen RE (1982-83) Analysis of the spread of tiger pear and parthenium weed in Australia. Australian Weeds, 2, 56-60.
    • (1982) Australian Weeds , vol.2 , pp. 56-60
    • Auld, B.A.1    Hosking, J.2    McFadyen, R.E.3
  • 9
    • 0037202447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling
    • Austin M (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling, 157, 101-118.
    • (2002) Ecological Modelling , vol.157 , pp. 101-118
    • Austin, M.1
  • 11
    • 64649104799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions
    • Beaumont LJ, Gallagher RV, Thuiller W, Downey PO, Leishman MR, Hughes L (2009) Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 409-420.
    • (2009) Diversity and Distributions , vol.15 , pp. 409-420
    • Beaumont, L.J.1    Gallagher, R.V.2    Thuiller, W.3    Downey, P.O.4    Leishman, M.R.5    Hughes, L.6
  • 13
    • 84892474402 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models
    • Boria RA, Olson LE, Goodman SM, Anderson RP (2014) Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models. Ecological Modelling, 275, 73-77.
    • (2014) Ecological Modelling , vol.275 , pp. 73-77
    • Boria, R.A.1    Olson, L.E.2    Goodman, S.M.3    Anderson, R.P.4
  • 15
    • 51549119584 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter
    • Broennimann O, Guisan A (2008) Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter. Biology Letters, 4, 585-589.
    • (2008) Biology Letters , vol.4 , pp. 585-589
    • Broennimann, O.1    Guisan, A.2
  • 18
    • 70449731775 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing parthenium weed across landscapes: limitations and prospects
    • (ed. Inderjit S) -, Springer Science, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
    • Dhileepan K (2009) Managing parthenium weed across landscapes: limitations and prospects. In: Management of Invasive Weeds (ed. Inderjit S), pp. 227-260, Springer Science, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
    • (2009) Management of Invasive Weeds , pp. 227-260
    • Dhileepan, K.1
  • 19
    • 84867759501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reproductive variation in naturally occurring populations of the weed Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in Australia
    • Dhileepan K (2012) Reproductive variation in naturally occurring populations of the weed Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in Australia. Weed Science, 60, 571-576.
    • (2012) Weed Science , vol.60 , pp. 571-576
    • Dhileepan, K.1
  • 20
    • 84890154657 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parthenium hysterophorus L. - parthenium
    • (eds Julien M, McFadyen RE, Cullen J) CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Vic.
    • Dhileepan K, McFadyen RE (2012) Parthenium hysterophorus L. - parthenium. In: Biological Control of Weeds in Australia: 1960 to 2010 (eds Julien M, McFadyen RE, Cullen J), pp. 448-462. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, Vic.
    • (2012) Biological Control of Weeds in Australia: 1960 to 2010 , pp. 448-462
    • Dhileepan, K.1    McFadyen, R.E.2
  • 22
    • 63849287596 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models
    • Elith J, Graham C (2009) Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32, 1-12.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.32 , pp. 1-12
    • Elith, J.1    Graham, C.2
  • 23
    • 73949141293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time
    • Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40, 677-697.
    • (2009) Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics , vol.40 , pp. 677-697
    • Elith, J.1    Leathwick, J.R.2
  • 24
    • 33645917058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data
    • Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29, 129-151.
    • (2006) Ecography , vol.29 , pp. 129-151
    • Elith, J.1    Graham, C.H.2    Anderson, R.P.3
  • 27
    • 33845638788 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range?
    • Fitzpatrick MC, Weltzin JF, Sanders NJ, Dunn RR (2007) The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 24-33.
    • (2007) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.16 , pp. 24-33
    • Fitzpatrick, M.C.1    Weltzin, J.F.2    Sanders, N.J.3    Dunn, R.R.4
  • 29
    • 24344493920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
    • Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
    • (2005) Ecology Letters , vol.8 , pp. 993-1009
    • Guisan, A.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 32
    • 45749127819 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species
    • Jeschke JM, Strayer DL (2008) Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1134, 1-24.
    • (2008) Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences , vol.1134 , pp. 1-24
    • Jeschke, J.M.1    Strayer, D.L.2
  • 34
    • 49749102754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates
    • Kearney M, Phillips BL, Tracy CR, Christian KA, Betts G, Porter WP (2008) Modelling species distributions without using species distributions: the cane toad in Australia under current and future climates. Ecography, 31, 423-434.
    • (2008) Ecography , vol.31 , pp. 423-434
    • Kearney, M.1    Phillips, B.L.2    Tracy, C.R.3    Christian, K.A.4    Betts, G.5    Porter, W.P.6
  • 35
    • 0035313748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders
    • Kolar CS, Lodge DM (2001) Progress in invasion biology: predicting invaders. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 16, 199-204.
    • (2001) Trends in Ecology & Evolution , vol.16 , pp. 199-204
    • Kolar, C.S.1    Lodge, D.M.2
  • 37
    • 38949161848 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
    • Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
    • (2008) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.17 , pp. 145-151
    • Lobo, J.M.1    Jiménez-Valverde, A.2    Real, R.3
  • 38
    • 34247117216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges
    • Loo SE, Mac Nally R, Lake PS (2007) Forecasting New Zealand Mudsnail invasion range: model comparisons using native and invaded ranges. Ecological Applications, 17, 181-189.
    • (2007) Ecological Applications , vol.17 , pp. 181-189
    • Loo, S.E.1    Mac Nally, R.2    Lake, P.S.3
  • 39
    • 78650802871 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis
    • Mandle L, Warren DL, Hoffmann MH, Peterson AT, Schmitt J, von Wettberg EJ (2010) Conclusions about niche expansion in introduced Impatiens walleriana populations depend on method of analysis. PLoS ONE, 5, e15297.
    • (2010) PLoS ONE , vol.5 , pp. e15297
    • Mandle, L.1    Warren, D.L.2    Hoffmann, M.H.3    Peterson, A.T.4    Schmitt, J.5    von Wettberg, E.J.6
  • 40
    • 32644489677 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can the invaded range of a species be predicted sufficiently using only native-range data? Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) in the southwestern United States
    • Mau-Crimmins TM, Schussman HR, Geiger EL (2006) Can the invaded range of a species be predicted sufficiently using only native-range data? Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana) in the southwestern United States. Ecological Modelling, 193, 736-746.
    • (2006) Ecological Modelling , vol.193 , pp. 736-746
    • Mau-Crimmins, T.M.1    Schussman, H.R.2    Geiger, E.L.3
  • 41
    • 78650975206 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Current and potential geographical distribution of the invasive plant Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in eastern and southern Africa
    • McConnachie AJ, Strathie LW, Mersie W et al. (2011) Current and potential geographical distribution of the invasive plant Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in eastern and southern Africa. Weed Research, 51, 71-84.
    • (2011) Weed Research , vol.51 , pp. 71-84
    • McConnachie, A.J.1    Strathie, L.W.2    Mersie, W.3
  • 42
    • 70949104724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A mechanistic niche model for measuring species' distributional responses to seasonal temperature gradients
    • Monahan WB (2009) A mechanistic niche model for measuring species' distributional responses to seasonal temperature gradients. PLoS ONE, 4, e7921.
    • (2009) PLoS ONE , vol.4 , pp. e7921
    • Monahan, W.B.1
  • 43
    • 67649989012 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata
    • Murray JV, Goldizen AW, O'Leary RA, McAlpine CA, Possingham HP, Choy SL (2009) How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabies Petrogale penicillata. Journal of Applied Ecology, 46, 842-851.
    • (2009) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.46 , pp. 842-851
    • Murray, J.V.1    Goldizen, A.W.2    O'Leary, R.A.3    McAlpine, C.A.4    Possingham, H.P.5    Choy, S.L.6
  • 45
    • 0031752644 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Behaviour of buried and surface-lying seeds of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.)
    • Navie SC, Panetta FD, McFadyen RE, Adkins SW (1998) Behaviour of buried and surface-lying seeds of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). Weed Research, 38, 338-341.
    • (1998) Weed Research , vol.38 , pp. 338-341
    • Navie, S.C.1    Panetta, F.D.2    McFadyen, R.E.3    Adkins, S.W.4
  • 46
    • 0034029223 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Role of light availability and dispersal in exotic plant invasion along roads and streams in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon
    • Parendes LA, Jones JA (2000) Role of light availability and dispersal in exotic plant invasion along roads and streams in the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon. Conservation Biology, 14, 64-75.
    • (2000) Conservation Biology , vol.14 , pp. 64-75
    • Parendes, L.A.1    Jones, J.A.2
  • 48
    • 0141856572 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?
    • Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
    • (2003) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.12 , pp. 361-371
    • Pearson, R.G.1    Dawson, T.P.2
  • 50
    • 84946711886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parthenium incident in the Pilbara, Western Australia: how is this a good new story?
    • Proceedings of the 18th Australasian Weeds Conference (ed. Eldershaw V) Weed Society of Victoria, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
    • Penna A-M, MacFarlane M (2012) Parthenium incident in the Pilbara, Western Australia: how is this a good new story? In: Proceedings of the 18th Australasian Weeds Conference (ed. Eldershaw V), pp. 13-16. Weed Society of Victoria, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
    • (2012) , pp. 13-16
    • Penna, A.-M.1    MacFarlane, M.2
  • 51
    • 34547923699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent
    • Peterson AT, Papeş M, Eaton M (2007) Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography, 30, 550-560.
    • (2007) Ecography , vol.30 , pp. 550-560
    • Peterson, A.T.1    Papeş, M.2    Eaton, M.3
  • 52
    • 77955452660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • POC plots: calibrating species distribution models with presence-only data
    • Phillips SJ, Elith J (2010) POC plots: calibrating species distribution models with presence-only data. Ecology, 91, 2476-2484.
    • (2010) Ecology , vol.91 , pp. 2476-2484
    • Phillips, S.J.1    Elith, J.2
  • 53
  • 54
    • 35848968879 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A null-model for significance testing of presence-only species distribution models
    • Raes N, ter Steege H (2007) A null-model for significance testing of presence-only species distribution models. Ecography, 30, 727-736.
    • (2007) Ecography , vol.30 , pp. 727-736
    • Raes, N.1    ter Steege, H.2
  • 56
    • 79951786602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders
    • Rodda GH, Jarnevich CS, Reed RN (2011) Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders. PLoS ONE, 6, e14670.
    • (2011) PLoS ONE , vol.6 , pp. e14670
    • Rodda, G.H.1    Jarnevich, C.S.2    Reed, R.N.3
  • 57
    • 35848961225 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species
    • Soberón J (2007) Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species. Ecology Letters, 10, 1115-1123.
    • (2007) Ecology Letters , vol.10 , pp. 1115-1123
    • Soberón, J.1
  • 58
    • 22544451955 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas
    • Soberón J, Peterson AT (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics, 2, 1-10.
    • (2005) Biodiversity Informatics , vol.2 , pp. 1-10
    • Soberón, J.1    Peterson, A.T.2
  • 59
    • 84874016128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models
    • Syfert MM, Smith MJ, Coomes DA (2013) The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models. PLoS ONE, 8, e55158.
    • (2013) PLoS ONE , vol.8 , pp. e55158
    • Syfert, M.M.1    Smith, M.J.2    Coomes, D.A.3
  • 60
    • 0242275331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and predicting potential future shifts under global change
    • Thuiller W (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and predicting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353-1362.
    • (2003) Global Change Biology , vol.9 , pp. 1353-1362
    • Thuiller, W.1
  • 63
    • 64649098806 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    • Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araújo MB (2009) BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography, 32, 369-373.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.32 , pp. 369-373
    • Thuiller, W.1    Lafourcade, B.2    Engler, R.3    Araújo, M.B.4
  • 64
    • 0027063417 scopus 로고
    • Alien flora in grasslands adjacent to road and trail corridors in Glacier National Park, Montana (USA)
    • Tyser RW, Worley CA (1992) Alien flora in grasslands adjacent to road and trail corridors in Glacier National Park, Montana (USA). Conservation Biology, 6, 253-262.
    • (1992) Conservation Biology , vol.6 , pp. 253-262
    • Tyser, R.W.1    Worley, C.A.2
  • 65
    • 84867394789 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing transferability of ecological models: an underappreciated aspect of statistical validation
    • Wenger SJ, Olden JD (2012) Assessing transferability of ecological models: an underappreciated aspect of statistical validation. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3, 260-267.
    • (2012) Methods in Ecology and Evolution , vol.3 , pp. 260-267
    • Wenger, S.J.1    Olden, J.D.2
  • 66
    • 84860606870 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting to new environments: tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions
    • Zurell D, Elith J, Schröder B (2012) Predicting to new environments: tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 628-634.
    • (2012) Diversity and Distributions , vol.18 , pp. 628-634
    • Zurell, D.1    Elith, J.2    Schröder, B.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.