A new statistical precipitation downscaling method with Bayesian model averaging: a case study in China

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 45, Issue 9-10, 2015, Pages 2541-2555

  Zhang, Xianliang ^a   Yan, Xiaodong ^b  

^a SHENYANG AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Bayesian model averaging; Monthly precipitation; Multiple linear regression method; Statistical downscaling

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGRESSION ANALYSIS; WEATHER STATION;

CHINA;

EID: 84946486880     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2491-7     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Acharya N, Chattopadhyay S, Mohanty UC, Dash SK, Sahoo LN (2013) On the bias correction of general circulation model output for Indian summer monsoon. Meteorol Appl 20:349–356
2. Akaike H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Automat Contr AC-19:716–723
3. Bates BC, Charles SP, Hughes JP (1998) Stochastic downscaling of numerical climate model simulations. Environ Model Softw 13:325–331
4. Bayes T (1763) An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philos Trans R Soc 53:370–418
5. Bordoy R, Burlando P (2014) Stochastic downscaling of climate model precipitation outputs in orographically complex regions: 2. Downscaling methodology. Water Resour Res 50:562–579
6. Browne MW (2000) Cross-validation methods. J Math Psychol 44:108–132
7. Cannon AJ, Whitfield PH (2002) Downscaling recent streamflow conditions in British Columbia, Canada using ensemble neural network models. J Hydrol 259:136–151
8. Chen D, Chen Y (2003) Association between winter temperature in China and upper air circulation over East Asia revealed by canonical correlation analysis. Global Planet Change 37:315–325
9. Chen D, Achberger C, Räisänen J, Hellström C (2006) Using statistical downscaling to quantify the GCM-related uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios: a case study of Swedish precipitation. Adv Atmos Sci 23:54–60
10. Cheng CS, Li GL, Li Q, Auld H (2011) A synoptic weather-typing approach to project future daily rainfall and extremes at local scale in Ontario, Canada. J Clim 24:3667–3685
11. Chu JT, Xia J, Xu C, Singh VP (2010) Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China. Theor Appl Climatol 99:149–161
12. Coelho C, Stephenson DB, Doblas Reyes FJ, Balmaseda M, Guetter A, Van Oldenborgh GJ (2006) A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America. Meteorol Appl 13:73–82
13. Curry CL, van der Kamp D, Monahan AH (2012) Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed. Clim Dyn 38:1281–1299
14. De Sales F, Xue YK (2013) Dynamic downscaling of 22-year CFS winter seasonal hindcasts with the UCLA-ETA regional climate model over the United States. Clim Dyn 41:255–275
15. Druyan LM, Fulakeza M, Lonergan P (2002) Dynamic downscaling of seasonal climate predictions over Brazil. J Clim 15:3411–3426
16. Duan Q, Ajami NK, Gao X, Sorooshian S (2007) Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging. Adv Water Resour 30:1371–1386
17. Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Caporali E (2011) Simulation of future climate scenarios with a weather generator. Adv Water Resour 34:448–467
18. Fatichi S, Ivanov VY, Caporali E (2013) Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series. Clim Dyn 40:1841–1861
19. Fealy R, Sweeney J (2007) Statistical downscaling of precipitation for a selection of sites in Ireland employing a generalised linear modelling approach. Int J Climatol 27:2083–2094
20. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Stunell J (2007) Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci Discuss 11:1115–1126
21. Goubanova K, Echevin V, Dewitte B, Codron F, Takahashi K, Terray P, Vrac M (2011) Statistical downscaling of sea-surface wind over the Peru-Chile upwelling region: diagnosing the impact of climate change from the IPSL-CM4 model. Clim Dyn 36:1365–1378
22. Guan H, Wilson JL, Xie H (2009) A cluster-optimizing regression-based approach for precipitation spatial downscaling in mountainous terrain. J Hydrol 375:578–588
23. Hay LE, McCabe GJ, Wolock DM, Ayers MA (1991) Simulation of precipitation by weather type analysis. Water Resour Res 27:493–501
24. Hessami M, Gachon P, Ouarda TB, St-Hilaire A (2008) Automated regression-based statistical downscaling tool. Environ Model Softw 23:813–834
25. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
26. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW (2002) Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles. J Clim 15:793–799
27. Kim JW, Chang JT, Baker NL, Wilks DS, Gates WL (1984) The statistical problem of climate inversion- Determination of the relationship between local and large-scale climate. Mon Weather Rev 112:2069–2077
28. Lamb HH (1972) British Isles weather types and a register of the daily sequence of circulation patterns 1861–1971. HM Stationery Office, London
29. Liao Y, Zhang Q, Chen D (2004) Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China. J Geogr Sci 14:417–426
30. Linderson M, Achberger C, Chen D (2004) Statistical downscaling and scenario construction of precipitation in Scania, southern Sweden. Nord Hydrol 35:261–278
31. Maraun D, Rust HW, Osborn TJ (2010a) Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes. Extremes 13:133–153
32. Maraun D, Wetterhall F, Ireson AM, Chandler RE, Kendon EJ, Widmann M, Brienen S, Rust HW, Sauter T, Themeßl M (2010b) Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Rev Geophys 48:RG3003. doi:10.1029/2009RG000314
33. Maraun D, Osborn TJ, Rust HW (2011) The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part I: observed spatio-temporal relationships. Clim Dyn 36:261–275
34. Meehl G, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell J, Stouffer R, Taylor K (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1383–1394
35. Murphy J (1999) An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. J Clim 12:2256–2284
36. Orskaug E, Scheel I, Frigessi A, Guttorp P, Haugen JE, Tveito OE, Haug O (2011) Evaluation of a dynamic downscaling of precipitation over the Norwegian mainland. Tellus A 63:746–756
37. Osca J, Romero R, Alonso S (2013) Precipitation projections for Spain by means of a weather typing statistical method. Global Planet Change 109:46–63
38. Raftery AE, Zheng Y (2003) Discussion: performance of Bayesian model averaging. J Am Stat Assoc 98:931–938
39. Raftery AE, Gneiting T, Balabdaoui F, Polakowski M (2005) Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon Weather Rev 133:1155–1174
40. Rodrigues LRL, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Dos Santos Coelho CA (2013) Multi-model calibration and combination of tropical seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1779-8
41. Rummukainen M, Räisänen J, Bringfelt B, Ullerstig A, Omstedt A, Willén U, Hansson U, Jones C (2001) A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations. Clim Dyn 17:339–359
42. Salathe EP, Mote PW, Wiley MW (2007) Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. Int J Climatol 27:1611–1621
43. Schmidli J, Goodess CM, Frei C, Haylock MR, Hundecha Y, Ribalaygua J, Schmith T (2007) Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation: an evaluation and comparison of scenarios for the European Alps. J Geophys Res 112:D04105. doi:10.1029/2005JD007026
44. Stehlik J, Bárdossy A (2003) Statistical comparison of European circulation patterns and development of a continental scale classification. Theor Appl Climatol 76:31–46
45. Sun CJ, Monahan AH (2013) Statistical downscaling prediction of sea surface winds over the global ocean. J Climate 26:7938–7956
46. Viallefont V, Raftery AE, Richardson S (2001) Variable selection and Bayesian model averaging in case–control studies. Stat Med 20:3215–3230
47. von Storch H, Zorita E, Cubasch U (1993) Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. J Clim 6:1161–1171
48. Vrac M, Naveau P (2007) Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: from dry events to heavy rainfalls. Water Resour Res 43:W07402. doi:10.1029/2006WR005308
49. Wetterhall F, Halldin S, Xu C (2005) Statistical precipitation downscaling in central Sweden with the analogue method. J Hydrol 306:174–190
50. Wetterhall F, Bárdossy A, Chen D, Halldin S, Xu CY (2006) Daily precipitation-downscaling techniques in three Chinese regions. Water Resour Res 42:W11423
51. Wetterhall F, Halldin S, Xu C (2007) Seasonality properties of four statistical-downscaling methods in central Sweden. Theor Appl Climatol 87:123–137
52. Widmann M, Bretherton CS, Salathé EP Jr (2003) Statistical precipitation downscaling over the Northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor*. J Clim 16:799–816
53. Wilby RL, Wigley T (1997) Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations. Prog Phys Geogr 21:530–548
54. Wilby RL, Wigley TML (2000) Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships. Int J Climatol 20:641–661
55. Wilby RL, Charles SP, Zorita E, Timbal B, Whetton P, Mearns LO (2004) Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods. IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis (TGICA). http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/gu-idelines/StatDown_Guide.pdf
56. Xu C (1999) From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Prog Phys Geogr 23:229–249
57. Yee TW, Stephenson AG (2007) Vector generalized linear and additive extreme value models. Extremes 10:1–19
58. Yin C, Li Y, Ye W, Bornman JF, Yan X (2011) Statistical downscaling of regional daily precipitation over southeast Australia based on self-organizing maps. Theor Appl Climatol 105:11–26